2015

Author(s): Chretien JP, Anyamba A, Small J, Britch S, Sanchez JL, Halbach AC, Tucker C, Linthicum KJ

BACKGROUND: The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014 and winter 2015, El Nino Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, assessed likely El Nino development during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, persisting into spring 2015. METHODS: We identified geographic regions where environmental conditions may increase infectious disease transmission if the predicted El Nino occurs using El Nino indicators (Sea Surface Temperature [SST], Outgoing Longwave Radiation [OLR], and rainfall anomalies) and literature review of El Nino-infectious disease associations. RESULTS: SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and western Indian Oceans were anomalously elevated during August-October 2014, consistent with a developing weak El Nino event. Teleconnections with local climate is evident in global precipitation patterns, with positive OLR anomalies (drier than average conditions) across Indonesia and coastal southeast Asia, and negative anomalies across northern China, the western Indian Ocean, central Asia, north-central and northeast Africa, Mexico/Central America, the southwestern United States, and the northeastern and southwestern tropical Pacific. Persistence of these conditions could produce environmental settings conducive to increased transmission of cholera, dengue, malaria, Rift Valley fever, and other infectious diseases in regional hotspots as during previous El Nino events. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The current development of weak El Nino conditions may have significant potential implications for global public health in winter 2014-spring 2015. Enhanced surveillance and other preparedness measures in predicted infectious disease hotspots could mitigate health impacts.

Journal: PLoS Currents