2014

Author(s): Grjibovski AM, Kosbayeva A, Menne B

We studied associations between monthly counts of laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis, ambient air temperature and precipitation in four settings in Kazakhstan. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature during the same months only in Astana: an increase of 1 degrees C was associated with a 5.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2-8.8] increase in the number of cases. A similar association, although not reaching the level of significance was observed in the Southern Kazakhstan region (3.5%, 95% CI -2.1 to 9.1). Positive association with precipitation with lag 2 was found in Astana: an increase of 1 mm was associated with a 0.5% (95% CI 0.1-1.0) increase in the number of cases. A similar association, but with lag 0 was observed in Southern Kazakhstan region (0.6%, 95% CI 0.1-1.1). The results may have implications for the future patterns of salmonellosis in Kazakhstan with regard to climate change.

Journal: Epidemiology and Infection