2016
Author(s): Milazzo A, Giles LC, Zhang Y, Koehler AP, Hiller JE, Bi P
Changing trends in foodborne disease are influenced by many factors, including temperature. Globally and in Australia, warmer ambient temperatures are projected to rise if climate change continues. Salmonella spp. are a temperature-sensitive pathogen and rising temperature can have a substantial effect on disease burden affecting human health. We examined the relationship between temperature and Salmonella spp. and serotype notifications in Adelaide, Australia. Time-series Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the effect of temperature during warmer months on Salmonella spp. and serotype cases notified from 1990 to 2012. Long-term trends, seasonality, autocorrelation and lagged effects were included in the statistical models. Daily Salmonella spp. counts increased by 1.3% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.013, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.008-1.019] per 1 degrees C rise in temperature in the warm season with greater increases observed in specific serotype and phage-type cases ranging from 3.4% (IRR 1.034, 95% CI 1.008-1.061) to 4.4% (IRR 1.044, 95% CI 1.024-1.064). We observed increased cases of S. Typhimurium PT9 and S. Typhimurium PT108 notifications above a threshold of 39 degrees C. This study has identified the impact of warm season temperature on different Salmonella spp. strains and confirms higher temperature has a greater effect on phage-type notifications. The findings will contribute targeted information for public health policy interventions, including food safety programmes during warmer weather.
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268815002587
Journal: Epidemiology and Infection