The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus was detected for the first time in the Netherlands in the summer of 2005. Aedes albopictus is a competent vector of several human viral diseases, and therefore the recent appearance of the vector is a concern to local public health authorities. In 2006 and 2007, the mosquito was found repeatedly and regularly at Lucky bamboo import companies. To assess whether imported Ae. albopictus could establish to produce subsequent generations in the following years or whether the winter conditions in the Netherlands would prove too cold to allow overwintering of diapausing eggs, predictions were made using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) model based on January average temperature and the annual precipitation recorded in 2006. Seasonal activity of overwintering Ae. albopictus was estimated for temperate strains based on the weekly average temperature and weekly photoperiod using spring egg hatching thresholds of 10.5 degrees C and 11.25 hours, and egg diapause and adult survival thresholds of 9.5 degrees C and 13.5 hours. The analyses indicate that the climate conditions in the Netherlands over the past 10 years were favorable to allow overwintering of diapausing eggs of temperate strains of Ae. albopictus, particularly in the western coastal region. This region was also the area where adult Ae. albopictus were intercepted inside and surrounding plant glasshouses. The estimated number of weeks elapsing between first egg hatching in spring and the production of diapausing eggs in autumn ranged between 17 and 22 weeks in 2006.