For the evaluation of policy action programs to improve groundwater quality, research institutes and governments intensively monitor nitrate concentrations in shallow or near surface groundwater. However, trend detection is often hampered by the large seasonal and multi-annual temporal variability in nitrate concentrations, especially in shallow groundwater within 0-5 m below the surface in relatively humid regions. This variability is mainly caused by variations in precipitation excess (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) that results in strong variability in groundwater recharge. The objective of this study was to understand and quantify this weather-induced variability in shallow groundwater nitrate concentrations. We present an example of measured weather related variations in shallow groundwater nitrate concentrations from De Marke, an intensively monitored experimental farm in The Netherlands. For the quantification of the weather-induced variability, concentration-indices were calculated using a 1D model for water and solute transport. The results indicate that nitrate concentrations in the upper meter of groundwater at De Marke vary between 55% and 153% of the average concentration due to meteorological variability. The concentration-index quantification method was successfully used to distinguish weather related variability from human-induced trends in the nitrate concentration monitoring data from De Marke. Our model simulations also shows that sampling from fixed monitoring wells produces less short term variability than measuring from open boreholes. In addition, using larger screen depths and longer screens filters out short term temporal variability at the cost of a more delayed detection of trends in groundwater quality. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.