Chapter 4 focuses on scenarios and models that explore the impacts of a wide range of plausible future changes in social, economic and institutional drivers on nature, nature’s contributions to people (NCP) and good quality of life. The chapter’s assessment concentrates on studies published since 2008 that cover large regional to global spatial scales and time periods from the present to 2050, and up to 2100. This framing of the assessment means that this chapter is best suited to help setting the agendas for decision-making at national to international levels by identifying future challenges and providing a compelling case for action. Chapter 4 provides new insights compared to previous assessments by including the most recent scenarios and models, by examining a broad range of global change drivers and their interactions, and by highlighting the impacts on a wide range of indicators of nature, nature’s contributions to people and good quality of life. Where possible, results are also interpreted in view of their implications for achieving the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and the Sustainable Development Goals.