2023
Author(s): Sarmiento JH
This paper analyzes the relationship between temperature, mortality, and adaptation oppor-tunities in a tropical country. Such countries host almost 40% of the world's population and face inherently different environmental, demographic, and socio-economic conditions than their counterparts in temperate areas. Using detailed data from all Colombian municipalities, I show that anomalously hot or cold days increase mortality even at narrow temperature ranges, which are characteristic of the tropics. An additional day with a mean temperature above 27 degrees C (80.6 degrees F) increases mortality rates by approximately 0.24 deaths per 100,000, equivalent to 0.7% of monthly death rates. Unlike temperate locations, I find that deaths attributed to infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses drive this relationship in the hot part of the distribution, mainly affecting children aged 0-9. These findings uncover new factors and populations at risk and imply that the average person who dies after a hot temperature shock loses approximately 30 years of life. I also provide evidence that access to health care and quality of services could mediate between temperature and mortality.
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2023.102796