Egypt is one of the countries expected to suffer from climate change in the next 50 years. This study analyses the impacts of climate change on food security dimensions in Egypt during the period 2022-2070 by using statistical analysis methods (ARIMA and MLR). The study found that there is a negative and significant impact of climate change on food availability, food access, food utilization, and food stability. In terms of food availability, increases in temperature will reduce yields of wheat from 8.1% up to 24.5%, maize from 9.7% up to 29.1%, and rice from 2.1% up to 6.1% by 2070. In terms of food access, food prices are expected to rise from 13.5% to 18.9% by 2070. In terms of food utilization, it is expected that there will be an increase in the percentage of children under 5 years of age who are overweight from 17.8% to 21.2% and an increase in the prevalence of obesity in the adult population (18 years and older) from 40.0% to 53.1% by 2070. In terms of food stability, the food security level in Egypt will decrease from 76.1% to 73.9%. This study recommends some adaptation options to reduce the impact of climate change on food security dimensions in Egypt, including designing and applying a national adaptation strategy.
Many studies have detected a relationship between diarrhea morbidity rates with the changes in precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts, water shortage, etc. But, most of the authors were cautious in their studies, because of the lack of empirical climate-health data and there were large uncertainties in the future projections. The study aimed to refine the link between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in some Egyptian governorates representative of the three Egyptian geographical divisions with the meteorological changes that occurred in the 2006-2016 period for which the medical data are available, as a case study. Medical raw data was collected from the Information Centre Department of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population. The meteorological data of temperature and precipitation extremes were defined as data outside the 10th-90th percentile range of values of the period of study, and their analysis was done using a methodology similar to the one recommended by the WMO and integrated in the CLIMDEX software. Relationships between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in seven Egyptian governorates and the meteorological changes that occurred in the period 2006 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis to identify the most effective meteorological factor that affects the trend of morbidity rate of diarrhea in each governorate. Statistical analysis revealed that some meteorological parameters can be used as predictors for morbidity rates of diarrhea in Cairo, Alexandria, and Gharbia, but not in Aswan, Behaira, and Dakahlia where the temporal evolution cannot be related with meteorology. In Red Sea, there was no temporal trend and no significant relationships between the diarrhea morbidity rate and meteorological parameters. The predictor meteorological parameters for morbidity rates of diarrhea were found to be depending on the geographic locations and infrastructures in these governorates. It was concluded that the meteorological data that can be used as predictors for the morbidity rate of diarrhea is depending on the geographical location and infrastructures of the target location. The socioeconomic levels as well as the infrastructures in the governorate must be considered confounders in future studies.
Pollen is responsible for seasonal allergies, such as allergic rhino-conjunctivitis (AR), and has become a growing public health concern. Climate change affects the range of allergenic species as well as the timing and length of the pollen season. In Egypt, data on pollinosis are scarce. This study aimed to identify the most prevalent pollen causing allergies among Egyptian patients with respiratory allergies. A total of 200 patients with respiratory allergic diseases, allergic rhinitis and/or bronchial asthma (BA), were included. Medical history taking and physical examinations were conducted on each patient. Complete blood count (CBC), total immunoglobulin E (IgE) determination, spirometry, specific IgE, and skin prick tests (SPTs) for common aeroallergens and food were performed. Of the 200 patients, 106 (53%) were females. The age of study subjects ranged 16-66 years (mean ± SD, 34.42 ± 13.0), and 65% were living in urban areas. Grass pollen, mainly from Timothy grass and maize, were the most prevalent allergens (28.5%). Timothy grass was the most common type of pollen in patients with AR (28.3 %). Elder pollen was more prevalent among asthmatic patients (P = 0.004). Bermuda grass was statistically more prevalent in rural than in urban areas (P = 0.008). Maize was linked to uncontrolled BA, whereas Timothy grass was the most prevalent among patients with moderate/severe AR. Forty-three patients had oral allergy syndrome; oranges and tomatoes were the most cross-reactive food allergies (12% and 11.5%, respectively). Exacerbation of allergic symptoms was noted during January, December, March, and June. In conclusion, pollen plays a substantial role in affecting patients with respiratory allergies in Egypt. Grass pollen is the most prevalent type of pollen, especially in urban areas.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global mean temperature is expected to increase from 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100. The implications will be particularly significant in urban areas as indoor and outdoor comfort levels will be disrupted, leading to significant health impacts. One of the expected impacts is indoor overheating, as it has been identified as one of the major causes of thermal discomfort and is directly linked to the potential increase in mortality levels in the future. This paper focuses on the potential implications of increased overheating hours on human health in an old low-income residential neighborhood. We study the effect of three main factors: population coping capacity, building thermal performance, and human physiological response to heat exposure. This is achieved by examining an old low-income neighborhood in Cairo, Egypt, whose residents have limited cooling systems access. Results indicate higher overheating risks in older buildings with a projected increase of 18% in indoor temperature and higher health risks, especially for elderly residents. The study’s findings can be considered a starting point to examine the relationship between exposure duration, indoor air temperature range, and potential health risks for vulnerable urban communities with limited access to cooling mechanisms such as AC units.
INTRODUCTION: Identifying the public awareness and risk perception regarding climate change, are fundamental preliminary steps in determining gaps and paving the way for awareness campaigns that address climate change causes and counteraction mitigation measures. However, few studies were conducted in Egypt; thus, the researchers conducted the current cross-sectional study among a sample of the Egyptian population to identify general knowledge and perception about climate change and its effects, as well as attitudes toward mitigation measures. METHODS: An exploratory population-based electronic-open survey, was conducted among 527 members of the general population between January and April 2022, using a convenience sampling technique. A pre-tested 2-page (screen) electronic included three sections: sociodemographic characteristics, global warming/climate change-related knowledge, and attitude toward climate change mitigation. RESULTS: The average global warming knowledge score was 12 ± 3. More than 70% (71.1%) of the participants were knowledgeable (percentage score >70%). Approximately half of the enrolled participants (48.2%) agreed that everyone is vulnerable to the effects of global warming/climate change. More than three-quarters (78.3%) of the participants agreed that carbon emissions from vehicles and industrial methane emissions were the first factors that contributed to climate change, followed by the ozone holes (731%). Global warming/climate change-related knowledge was statistically higher in participants aged of >30 years, married participants, urban residents, highly educated individuals, and employed individuals (p-value ≤ 0.05). Approximately 80% of the participants agreed that responding to the questionnaire drew their attention to the topic of climate change and its effects. More than two-thirds of those polled agreed that increasing public transportation use could help mitigate the effects of climate change/global warming, followed by the materials used and the direction of construction. CONCLUSION: More than two-thirds of the participants were knowledgeable regarding climate change. Social media and the internet were the main sources of information. However, participants need to get the information in a different way that could help in changing their attitude positively toward the issue of climate change mitigation. The current study recommends the need for various initiatives that work should be launched.
Most climate change literature tends to downplay the gendered nature of vulnerability. At best, gender is discussed in terms of the male-female binary, seen as opposing forces rather than in varying relations of interdependency. Such construction can result in the adoption of maladaptive culturally unfit gender-blind policy and interventions. In Egypt, which is highly vulnerable to climate change, gender analysis of vulnerability is almost non-existent. This paper addresses this important research gap by asking and drawing on a rural Egyptian context ‘How do the gendered relational aspects of men’s and women’s livelihoods in the household and community influence vulnerability to climate change?’. To answer this question, I draw on gender analysis of social relations, framed within an understanding of sustainable livelihoods. During 16 months of fieldwork, I used multiple ethnographic methods to collect data from two culturally and ethnically diverse low-income villages in Egypt. My main argument is that experiences of climate change are closely intertwined with gender and wider social relations in the household and community. These are shaped by local gendered ideologies and cultures that are embedded in conjugal relations, kinship and relationship to the environment, as compared across the two villages. In this paper, I strongly argue that vulnerability to climate change is highly gendered and therefore gender analysis should be at the heart of climate change discourses, policy and interventions.
Egypt is one Arab country that is vulnerable to flash floods caused by heavy and intensive rainfall. Different locations in Egypt are vulnerable to the hazards of flash floods, especially in Upper Egypt. Throughout history, Egypt witnessed a series of events of flash floods that lead to mortality, damages, and economic losses. The intensity and frequency of flash floods in Egypt vary from year to year according to a number of hydrological and climatological variables. Although several previous flash floods studies have been conducted in Egypt, studies on the governorate of Asyut are still limited. This study integrates the physical and social parameters in order to assess the vulnerability to flash floods. The objectives of this study are to shed light on flash floods in the study area, develop a vulnerability model to determine the regions vulnerable to the impacts of flash floods, and propose a flash flood alert system in the governorate of Asyut in Egypt to mitigate the impacts of flash floods and to avoid the loss of life and property. The AHP (analytical hierarchy process) is used for assigning the optimal criterion weight of the considered vulnerability parameters based on the responses of eight expert respondents to an online Google forms questionnaire. The highest weighted flash floods causative parameters are population density (27.4%), precipitation (22.1%), total population (16.4%), and elevation (10.2%), respectively. The results reveal that Asyut is one of the Egyptian governorates prone to flash floods’ impacts, especially in Dayrut, Al-Qusiyah, and Abnub, urban districts. The findings of this study are expected to be useful to policymakers and responsible authorities for better disaster risk management and for dealing with the flash floods events in the future.
Long endemicity of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 subtype in Egypt poses a lot of threats to public health. Contrary to what is previously known, outbreaks have been circulated continuously in the poultry sectors all year round without seasonality. These changes call the need for epidemiological studies to prove or deny the influence of climate variability on outbreak occurrence, which is the aim of this study. This work proposes a modern approach to examine the degree to which the HPAI-H5N1disease event is being influenced by climate variability as a potential risk factor using generalized estimating equations (GEEs). GEE model revealed that the effect of climate variability differs according to the timing of the outbreak occurrence. Temperature and relative humidity could have both positive and negative effects on disease events. During the cold seasons especially in the first quarter, higher minimum temperatures, consistently show higher risks of disease occurrence, because this condition stimulates viral activity, while lower minimum temperatures support virus survival in the other quarters of the year with the highest negative effect in the third quarter. On the other hand, relative humidity negatively affects the outbreak in the first quarter of the year as the humid weather does not support viral circulation, while the highest positive effect was found in the second quarter during which low humidity favors the disease event.
