Understanding of public health adaptation (PHA) to climate change and implementation is limited. This study therefore focuses on one specific PHA issue: adaptation to the oak processionary moth (OPM). The aim is to examine the development of OPM adaptation in order to offer a problem description of the complexities involved in OPM adaptation. In this explorative case study, we investigate adaptation strategies based on semi-structured interviews with 26 actors involved in OPM adaptation in The Netherlands. The results indicate that the context of OPM adaptation is relatively complex, given the involvement of many interdependent actors. OPM adaptation was developed with limited knowledge and strategies were based on ad hoc approaches in which there was ambiguity about tasks and expertise. In addition, different actors have different perceptions and values concerning health, sustainability, risks and responsibilities influencing decision-making processes, while also posing a challenge to collaboration and the development of a coordinated approach. The generation of knowledge and its translation into practical strategies calls for interdisciplinary cooperation in knowledge development. PHA adaptation involves more than technical and organisational solutions alone. It also entails the development of a shared problem perception and solution space in which citizens are also engaged.
Flood simulations are important for flood (fatality) risk assessment. This article provides insight into the sensitivity of flood fatality risks to the model resolution of flood simulations and to several uncertain parameters in the loss of life model used. A case study is conducted for river flooding in a polder in the Netherlands (the Bommelerwaard) where the Dutch approach for loss of life estimation is applied. Flood models with resolutions of 100, 25, and 5 m are considered. Results show locally increased mortality rates in higher resolution simulations nearby structures including road embankments, dikes, and culverts. This causes a larger maximum individual risk value (annual probability of death for a person due to flooding) which has consequences for safety standards based on the individual risk criterion. Mortality rate in the breach zone is also affected by representations of buildings as solid objects versus as roughness elements. Furthermore, changes in the loss of life estimation approach via alternative ways of including people’s behaviour, building characteristics, and age of the population, have a significant impact on flood fatality risk. Results from this study can be used to support future risk assessments and decision making with respect to safety standards.
PURPOSE: Over the last few decades, a global increase in both cold and heat extremes has been observed with significant impacts on human mortality. Although it is well-identified that older individuals (>?65 years) are most prone to temperature-related mortality, there is no consensus on the effect of sex. The current study investigated if sex differences in temperature-related mortality exist in the Netherlands. METHODS: Twenty-three-year ambient temperature data of the Netherlands were combined with daily mortality data which were subdivided into sex and three age classes (
Current models for flu-like epidemics insufficiently explain multi-cycle seasonality. Meteorological factors alone, including the associated behavior, do not predict seasonality, given substantial climate differences between countries that are subject to flu-like epidemics or COVID-19. Pollen is documented to be allergenic, it plays a role in immuno-activation and defense against respiratory viruses, and seems to create a bio-aerosol that lowers the reproduction number of flu-like viruses. Therefore, we hypothesize that pollen may explain the seasonality of flu-like epidemics, including COVID-19, in combination with meteorological variables. We have tested the Pollen-Flu Seasonality Theory for 2016-2020 flu-like seasons, including COVID-19, in the Netherlands, with its 17.4 million inhabitants. We combined changes in flu-like incidence per 100 K/Dutch residents (code: ILI) with pollen concentrations and meteorological data. Finally, a predictive model was tested using pollen and meteorological threshold values, inversely correlated to flu-like incidence. We found a highly significant inverse correlation of r(224) = -0.41 (p < 0.001) between pollen and changes in flu-like incidence, corrected for the incubation period. The correlation was stronger after taking into account the incubation time. We found that our predictive model has the highest inverse correlation with changes in flu-like incidence of r(222) = -0.48 (p < 0.001) when average thresholds of 610 total pollen grains/m(3), 120 allergenic pollen grains/m(3), and a solar radiation of 510 J/cm(2) are passed. The passing of at least the pollen thresholds, preludes the beginning and end of flu-like seasons. Solar radiation is a co-inhibitor of flu-like incidence, while temperature makes no difference. However, higher relative humidity increases with flu-like incidence. We conclude that pollen is a predictor of the inverse seasonality of flu-like epidemics, including COVID-19, and that solar radiation is a co-inhibitor, in the Netherlands.
