The methodology and results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of the most negative global climate change IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) representative for the conditions of the Russian Arctic in the form of thawing and degradation of permafrost for healthcare facilities in eight Arctic regions of the Russian Federation are discussed. It is shown that the additional costs associated with these consequences for the maintenance and restoration of healthcare facilities in 2021-2050 may amount to about ₽60 bln, or about ₽2 bln per year (in 2021 prices) at the average rate of permafrost degradation and increase thawing depth, rising to ₽219 bln (₽7.5 bln bln annually) under the maximum expected damage.
Mining regions in different parts of the world have been associated with the significant pollution of water, sediments, and soils by manganese and other chemical elements. This study assessed the degree of geochemical transformation caused by open-pit extraction and processing of mineral resources in the Kovdorsky District of Murmansk Oblast, 20 km from the Russia-Finland border. A second objective was to predict further changes co-driven by industrial pressure and high climatic instability in the polar region. The field study involved sampling water and sediments from virgin background streams and from the tailings storage facility, settling ponds, rivers, and lakes affected by ore mining and disintegration. Laboratory analyses included the study of elemental composition, redox potential, alkalinity and acidity, organic matter content, and other geochemical characteristics for a better understanding of pollutant migration patterns. We revealed elevated levels of potentially toxic elements in surface waters and bottom sediments which pose a risk to the human health via the household and drinking water supply. Pollution with manganese (Mn) was found to be the major environmental issue. Its natural presence in the river water was overridden a hundredfold by anthropogenic enrichment. This is problematic as Mn is easily bioaccumulated, which can lead to unwanted ecotoxicological effects, and-in the case of prolonged exposure to high doses of Mn and its compounds-to detrimental human health impacts. We believe that the changing climate may raise the water flow and thus expand the area of the hydrochemical anomaly. On the other hand, the activation of self-purification and dilution processes could lead to decreasing environmental Mn concentrations.
Climate Change, Natural Resources Depletion, COVID-19, and Wars are some of the great challenges of our time. The consequences will affect psychological well-being and could have a harmful impact on mental health. This study aimed to assess the level of preoccupation and fears surrounding issues of the 21st-century and the implication for psychological well-being of the general population from Central/Southern Italy among different age groups. A questionnaire that included sociodemographic characteristics, topics formulated ad-hoc about preoccupation, fears, habits, and willingness to change habits in the future related to the 21st-century challenges, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales 21 (DASS-21) was administered online. A sample of 1831 participants (61% F; mean age 47.71 ± 17.30) was obtained. Results showed that young adults and older adults, respectively, reported greater and less psychological well-being. Young adults reported higher scores for preoccupation, changing habits, and willingness to change habits in the future, while older adults reported the lowest scores except for changing habits, also controlling for gender. Results for this variable, as well as correlations between the many variables described, rely on the specificity of age, and 21st-century challenges. Moreover, the main fears related to the 21st-century concerns were different based on both age and gender. In conclusion, the various stresses of the 21st-century discussed in this study have a relationship with personal well-being, and it is important to consider potential global mental health issues resulting from these stressors.
Spring floods in Siberia annually affect local communities. Major urban settlements in the region implemented flood control structures, so rural areas take a heavy beating. In 2018, spring floods severely hit multiple communities in central Yakutia, exposing deficient flood prevention and risk management practices. Notably, Amga village, an important local center, was severely inundated. Hydrological analysis shows that the 2018 flood had a 50-yr return period, and was caused by an ice jam in a nearby channel bend where mid-channel sand bars impede ice movement during breakup. The cold spells of late April and early May in the middle section of the river promote ice-jam development, causing extreme water stage rise. Highest water stage is unrelated to either winter snow water equivalent or early May rainfall. Estimated tangible direct damage to the Amga community equals 5.1B ($81.5M) in 2018 prices, but only 0.13B ($2.1M), or 2.5% of this total, was reclaimed. A questionnaire survey revealed that most residents report important deterioration of drinking water quality and health after flooding. Residents respond positively to risk mitigation actions, implemented by the local and regional authorities, except ice dusting and cutting, and report minor activity of official sources in spreading information on flood progress.
Climate change has increased the prevalence of wildfires, resulting in longer fire seasons and larger geographic area burned. The aim of this work was to assess the air pollution and health risk to the population caused during exposure to smoke in fire season. The study design included: an analysis of long-term air pollution to determine background levels; an analysis of short-term (<24 h) and subchronic (10-14 days) concentrations during wildfires; and an assessment of the health risk in the industrial center of the Baikal region (Russia). In Irkutsk, at a distance of 2000 km from the fire focal points, the maximum short-term concentrations of pollution were noted during the smoke period, when the average CO level increased 2.4 times, and PM1 increased 1.4 times relative to the background levels in August 2021. In Bratsk, located near the fires, the increases in short-term concentrations were: CO-21.0; SO2-13.0; formaldehyde-12.0; TPM-4.4 times. The hazard indices of respiratory and coronary diseases in the burning period exceeded the acceptable level. Acute reactions to smoke can be expected in 30% of the exposed population near fires and 11% in remote areas (Bratsk). The results obtained from the remote sensing of atmospheric smoke can be used to urgently resolve the issue of organizing medical assistance or evacuating the population groups most sensitive to the effects of smoke in fire season.
Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters caused by climatic hazards have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health. Due to its vast area, complex geographical environment and various climatic conditions, Russia is one of the countries that suffers significantly from frequent climate hazards. This paper provides information about temperature extremes in Russia in the beginning of the 21st century, and their impact on human health. A literature search was conducted using the electronic databases Web of Science, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed Researchs published in English and in Russian from 2000 to 2021. The results are summarized in 16 studies, which are divided into location-based groups, including Moscow, Saint Petersburg and other large cities located in various climatic zones: in the Arctic, in Siberia and in the southern regions, in ultra-continental and monsoon climate. Heat waves in cities with a temperate continental climate lead to a significant increase in all-cause mortality than cold waves, compared with cities in other climatic zones. At the same time, in northern cities, in contrast to the southern regions and central Siberia, the influence of cold waves is more pronounced on mortality than heat waves. To adequately protect the population from the effects of temperature waves and to carry out preventive measures, it is necessary to know specific threshold values of air temperature in each city.
Human dirofilariasis is a vector-borne helminth disease caused by two species of Dirofilaria: D. repens and D. immitis. The vectors of the helminth are mosquitoes in the family Culicidae. The definitive hosts of Dirofilaria are dogs and, to a lesser extent, cats. Humans are accidental hosts. Dirofilariasis has been reported in the territory of Russia since 1915. Sporadic cases of the disease have been reported occasionally, but the number of cases showed a distinct increasing trend in the late 1980s-early 1990s, when the number of cases reached several hundred in the southern territories of Russia, with geographic coordinates of 43° N-45° N. A comparison of the timing of the global trend of climate warming during the 1990s with the temporal pattern of the incidence of dirofilariasis in the territory of Russia indicated a close association between the two phenomena. At present, the northern range of Dirofilaria includes latitudes higher than 58° in both the European and Asian parts of the country. The phenomenon of climate warming in the territory of Russia has shaped the contemporary epidemiology of the disease. The emerging public health problem of dirofilariasis in Russia warrants the establishment of a comprehensive epidemiological monitoring system.
The paper reports the assessment of the spatiotemporal trends of climatic changes favoring the spread of West Nile fever (WNF) in the southern part of the European Russia. Data from 58 meteorological stations (1997–2018) and ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1981–2018) were used. The degree-day method was employed to assess whether the climatic conditions favor the spread of the West Nile virus (WNV). As a result an increase in the sum of the effective temperatures (ETs) was demonstrated. No increase in the length of the efficient infectivity season was observed. A coincidence of the trends of ET sum growth and the increase in the average air temperature for the epidemic season was noted. This creates favorable conditions for virus development in mosquitoes, because virus circulation becomes more efficient with an increase in ET. The most favorable temperature conditions for WNV form in the Caspian Sea region and the Ciscaucasia, where WNV circulation conditions are further improved due to an increase in the total ET. conditions favoring WNV transmission form more rapidly in the central part of European Russia than in the Cis-Ural region, which may cause further spread of WNF in this region.
Population growth, socio-cultural and economic changes as well as technological progress have an immediate impact on the environment and human health in particular. Our steadily rising needs of resources increase the pressure on the environment and narrow down untainted habitats for plants and wild animals. Balance and resilience of ecosystems are further threatened by climate change, as temperature and seasonal shifts increase the pressure for all species to find successful survival strategies. Arctic and subarctic regions are especially vulnerable to climate change, as thawing of permafrost significantly transforms soil structures, vegetation and habitats. With rising temperature, the risk of zoonotic diseases in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) has also increased. As vegetation periods prolong and habitats broaden, zoonotic pathogens and their vectors find more favourable living conditions. Moreover, permafrost degradation may expose historic burial grounds and allow for reviving the vectors of deadly infections from the past. To assess the current state of knowledge and emerging risks in the light of the “One Health” concept, a German-Russian Symposium took place on 13 August 2018 in Yakutsk, Russian Federation. This symposium report presents the main findings generated from presentations and discussions.
Throughout history, humans have experienced epidemics. The balance of living in nature encircled by microorganisms is delicate. More than 70% of today’s emerging infections are zoonotic, i.e., those in which microorganisms transmitted from animals infect humans. Species are on the move at speeds never previously recorded, among ongoing climate change which is especially rapid at high latitudes. This calls for intensified international surveillance of Northern infectious diseases. Russia holds the largest area of thawing permafrost among Northern nations, a process which threatens to rapidly disrupt the balance of nature. In this paper, we provide details regarding Russian health infrastructure in order to take the first steps toward a collaborative international survey of Northern infections and international harmonization of the procured data.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate reported extreme temperature-related catastrophic events and associated mortality on the European continent including the Russian Federation. DESIGN: Cross-sectional respecting Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) criteria. SETTINGS: Data source: Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). PARTICIPANTS: Search criteria: location-European continent including Russian Federation, time-years 1988 until 2019 (close of database 12 July 2019), catastrophic events-extreme temperatures. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of heat waves, cold waves, severe winter conditions and associated number of deaths, overall, and per country and year, respecting STROBE criteria. RESULTS: The most frequent type of the 243 events recorded in EM-DAT were cold waves (54.7%). However, cold waves and severe winter conditions only accounted for 6460 deaths (4.5%), while heat waves were associated with 137?533 deaths (95.5%). The five most severe heat waves in 2003, 2006, 2010, 2013 and 2015 were associated with a total of 135?089 deaths. The most severe heat waves were geographically distributed over the Russian Federation (2010), as well as France, Italy, Spain and Germany, each in 2003. CONCLUSION: Although cold waves are more frequently reported in EM-DAT, heat waves are the major cause for temperature-related deaths. In order to better protect the public, it is important to address resiliency and vulnerability of populations at risk and age groups.
In 2016, an outbreak of anthrax killing thousands of reindeer and affecting dozens of humans occurred on the Yamal peninsula, Northwest Siberia, after 70 years of epidemiological situation without outbreaks. The trigger of the outbreak has been ascribed to the activation of spores due to permafrost thaw that was accelerated during the summer heat wave. The focus of our study is on the dynamics of local environmental factors in connection with the observed anthrax revival. We show that permafrost was thawing rapidly for already 6 years before the outbreak. During 2011-2016, relatively warm years were followed by cold years with a thick snow cover, preventing freezing of the soil. Furthermore, the spread of anthrax was likely intensified by an extremely dry summer of 2016. Concurrent with the long-term decreasing trend in the regional annual precipitation, the rainfall in July 2016 was less than 10% of its 30-year mean value. We conclude that epidemiological situation of anthrax in the previously contaminated Arctic regions requires monitoring of climatic factors such as warming and precipitation extremes.
In recent decades, a considerable increase in the number of tick-bitten humans has been recorded in the north of European Russia. At the same time, significant climatic changes, such as an increase in air temperature, were noticed in this region. The northern border of the ixodidae distribution area lies in the north of European Russia, therefore the analysis of the population dynamics is of particular interest regarding the possible impact of the climate changes. Unfortunately, in such a large territory field, studies on tick abundance are very difficult. In our study, the official statistics for the number of tick-bitten humans were used. This kind of statistical analysis has been conducted in the Russian Federation for many years, and can be used for the estimation of climate change impact on tick abundance. Statistical data on tick-bitten humans have been collected in three large regions for several decades. For the same regions, the average annual air temperature was calculated and modeled. An S-shaped distribution of the number of victims depending on the average annual air temperature was established, which can be described as “Verhulst’s law”, or logistic function. However, the development of the population does not depend on time, but on the temperature of the ambient air.
BACKGROUND: Between 1999 and 2008 Russia experienced a flare-up of transmission of vivax malaria following its massive importation with more than 500 autochthonous cases in European Russia, the Moscow region being the most affected. The outbreak waned soon after a decrease in importation in mid-2000s and strengthening the control measures. Compared with other post-eradication epidemics in Europe this one was unprecedented by its extension and duration. METHODS: The aim of this study is to identify geographical determinants of transmission. The degree of favourability of climate for vivax malaria was assessed by measuring the sum of effective temperatures and duration of season of effective infectivity using data from 22 weather stations. For geospatial analysis, the locations of each of 405 autochthonous cases detected in Moscow region have been ascertained. A MaxEnt method was used for modelling the territorial differentiation of Moscow region according to the suitability of infection re-emergence based on the statistically valid relationships between the distribution of autochthonous cases and environmental and climatic factors. RESULTS: In 1999-2004, in the beginning of the outbreak, meteorological conditions were extremely favourable for malaria in 1999, 2001 and 2002, especially within the borders of the city of Moscow and its immediate surroundings. The greatest number of cases occurred at the northwestern periphery of the city and in the adjoining rural areas. A significant role was played by rural construction activities attracting migrant labour, vegetation density and landscape division. A cut-off altitude of 200 m was observed, though the factor of altitude did not play a significant role at lower altitudes. Most likely, the urban heat island additionally amplified malaria re-introduction. CONCLUSION: The malariogenic potential in relation to vivax malaria was high in Moscow region, albeit heterogeneous. It is in Moscow that the most favourable conditions exist for vivax malaria re-introduction in the case of a renewed importation. This recent event of large-scale re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area can serve as a case study for further research.
The aim of the current paper is to evaluate spatial and temporal characteristics of the distribution of bioclimatic comfort within the Arkhangelsk region (Russian Federation) with two modern indices of thermal comfort: PET and UTCI. Its average values calculated for the modern climatic period (1981-2010) in the monthly mean give a clear picture of spatial heterogeneity for the warmest month (July) and for the coldest one (January). The spatial picture of both indices in July allows us to distinguish three large internal regions: the Arkhangelsk province, the continental part of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug (NAO) and Novaya Zemlya islands (NZ). Winter distribution of thermal discomfort is fundamentally different: the coldest regions (with extreme cold stress) are equally NZ and the eastern half of NAO; intermediate position is occupied by the west of the NAO and the extreme north-east of the Arkhangelsk region, the highest winter UTCI values are observed in the rest of the region. In Archangelsk-city extreme cold stress in January has repeatability 6.7%, in February 4%, in December 2.2%, respectively. The average number of time points during the year at which thermal stress is not observed is only 19%. Obtained results will be the basis for planning relevant health measures and providing reliable forecasts of the effects of climate change in the Arctic region.
