Nearly 2.6 million people have been forced into displacement camps in Somalia as a result of frequent conflicts exacerbated by climate change disasters. Although the psychological impact of war and natural disasters is well documented elsewhere, little is known about the unseen scars of psychological trauma among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia. This study was carried out between January and February 2021 and sought to determine the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among IDPs and examine the association between displacement and these psychiatric conditions. METHODOLOGY: A cross-sectional quantitative study was conducted among 401 IDPs in Mogadishu. The Harvard Trauma Questionnaire was used to determine the levels of trauma exposure and PTSD, and Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25 was used to estimate the prevalence of depression. Multivariate and bivariate analyses were performed to analyze the association between demographic and displacement variables and the outcomes of PTSD and depression. RESULTS: More than half (59%) of participants met the symptom criteria of depression, and nearly a third (32%) of respondents met the symptom criteria for PTSD. The most prevalent traumatic event was a lack of food or water (80.2%). Important predictive factors for the development of psychiatric morbidity were unemployment, cumulative traumatic exposure, and frequency and duration of displacement. CONCLUSION: The study revealed high levels of depressive disorder and PTSD among IDPs in Mogadishu. Furthermore, this study provided evidence of IDPs’ susceptibility to trauma exposure and lack of essential services and goods. The study highlighted the importance of the provision of Mental Health and Psychosocial Support (MHPSS) services in IDP camps.
Somali post-conflict development faces many challenges that affect the sustainability of the water sector. This paper reviews and analyses the post-conflict development activities in the water sector through local communications and reviewing published materials and databases from international players in Somalia, funding agencies and financial tracking service. The paper has shown that there has been great attention and support given to the country during its post-conflict development. However, most of these initiatives and projects have focused on emerging issues such as tackling food security and water, sanitation and hygiene services. The paper also shows that the continuous funding of emerging issues in Somalia has reduced its long-term sustainability of the water sector and limited its national and long-term benefits but has increased corruption due to increase the gap between actors and local people. Therefore, new transparent cooperative initiatives are needed based on transparent involvement and coordination among donors, local authorities and implementers to improve and develop the water sector and the livelihood in Somalia through a solid water governance system.
Floods are the most common and expensive natural calamity, affecting every country. Flooding in the Shebelle River Basin (SRB) in southern Somalia has posed a significant challenge to sustainable development. The main goal of this study was to analyze flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in the part of SRB using GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The flood hazard map was constructed using seven important causative factors: elevation, slope, drainage density, distance to river, rainfall, soil and geology. The results demonstrate that very low, low, moderate, high, and very high flood hazard zones correspond to 10.92%, 24.97%, 29.13%, 21.93% and 13.04% of the area of SRB, respectively. The flood vulnerability map was created using five spatial layers: land use/land cover, population density, distance to road, Global man-made impervious surface (GMIS), and Human built-up area settlement extent (HBASE). In addition, the results of the flood susceptibility and vulnerability maps were used to create a flood risk map. The results demonstrate that for the Shebelle River Basin, 27.6%, 30.9%, 23.6%, 12.1%, and 5.7% area correspond to very low, low, moderate, high, and very high flood risk zones, respectively. The Receiver Operating Characteristics-Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC) of the flood hazard model exhibited a good prediction accuracy of 0.781. The majority of the basin is at risk of flooding in the very low, low, and moderate ranges; however, some tiny areas are at risk of flooding in the high and very high ranges. Flood hazard, vulnerability and risk maps should be provided and distributed the authorities responsible for flood protection so that people are aware flood risk locations.
During 2010-2012, extreme food insecurity and famine in Somalia were estimated to account for 256,000 deaths. Since 2014 Somalia has experienced recurrent below-average rainfall, with consecutive failed rains in late 2016 and 2017 leading to large-scale drought, displacement and epidemics. We wished to estimate mortality across Somalia from 2014 to 2018, and measure the excess death toll attributable to the 2017-2018 drought-triggered crisis. We used a statistical approach akin to small-area estimation, and relying solely on existing data. We identified and re-analysed 91 household surveys conducted at the district level and estimating the crude (CDR) and under 5 years death rate (U5DR) over retrospective periods of 3-4 months. We captured datasets of candidate predictors of mortality with availability by district and month. We also reconstructed population denominators by district-month combining alternative census estimates and displacement data. We combined these data inputs into predictive models to estimate CDR and U5DR and combined the predictions with population estimates to project death tolls. Excess mortality was estimated by constructing counterfactual no-crisis scenarios. Between 2013 and 2018, Somalia’s population increased from 12.0 to 13.5 million, and internally displaced people or returnees reached 20% of the population. We estimated an excess death toll of 44,700 in the most likely counterfactual scenario, and as high as 163,800 in a pessimistic scenario. By contrast to 2010-2012, excess deaths were widespread across Somalia, including central and northern regions. This analysis suggests that the 2017-2018 crisis had a lower, albeit still very substantial, mortality impact than its 2010-2012 predecessor. Despite modest elevations in death rate, crisis conditions were widespread and affected a population of millions. Humanitarian response to drought-related crises in Somalia needs to be strengthened, target the most vulnerable and emphasise very early interventions.
Greenland and Robins
INTRODUCTION: Over the past 30 years, south-central Somalia, Puntland (north-east) and Somaliland (north-west) have experienced recurring drought- and conflict-related crises. By the end of 2018, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region had reached 2.6 million; most were displaced to larger towns under government control, where humanitarian assistance was more accessible. Understanding the drivers of crisis-related displacement can provide insight into how responses can best manage and respond to displacement to prevent downstream morbidity and mortality. We aimed to explore the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, a period of severe drought. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study of secondary panel data stratified by district and month. The study population included all people in the region from 2016 to 2018. The outcome was defined as the number of new out-migrating internally displaced persons (IDPs) per district-month. Exposure variables included armed conflict, rainfall, food insecurity and food security services. Lags at one, two and three months were generated to explore possible delayed effects. All univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using negative binomial regression models with mixed effects incorporating the district as a random effect. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2018, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9% to 25% in Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. We observed strong associations between IDP out-migration rate and failed rains at a three-month lag, food insecurity at a one-month lag, and the presence of therapeutic food services with no lag. IDP out-migration rate was not associated with armed conflict intensity, and cash- and rations-based food security services. DISCUSSION: This study identified temporal, and socially and biologically plausible associations between key crisis-related risk factors and displacement in Somalia. The findings suggest a sequence of events spanning a few months, where failed rains and consequent food insecurity likely prompted early population out-migration to larger urban centers where humanitarian services were more accessible. The presence of therapeutics-based food security services could represent a more general correlate of crisis severity and the decision to migrate.
In Somalia, challenges related to energy access is influenced by both weather and climate extremes and associated conflict. The objective of this article is to gain an improved understanding of these risks and challenges, which are faced by the most vulnerable populations in the country. In particular, cooking energy-related challenges faced by households affected by weather and climate extremes and conflicts include protection risks, malnutrition, health risks, environmental degradation and heightened tension and conflict between social groups. Interventions to address these issues should focus on both fuel supply and fuel demand as well as on improving the livelihoods of affected populations. In the aftermath of an extreme weather event it is recommended that assessments of the energy needs of all affected populations, including both hosts and Internally Displaced People (IDPs), be conducted. Post-disaster support should include the promotion of energy-efficient technologies for cooking as well as alternative sources of fuel where available, including non-wood based renewable energy. The implementation of a field inventory to assess the status of natural resources in areas vulnerable to climate impacts could help to determine woody biomass trends and enable the development of ecosystem restoration plans. These could include provisions for the establishment of woodlots and agro-forestry, thus building resilience to environmental degradation while maintaining woody biomass resources in and around displacement camps. Interventions should also be designed jointly with partners, and activities should be conflict-sensitive to ensure an enhanced state of resiliency and preparedness among vulnerable populations.
