Water supply infrastructures are essential to ensure the well-being of communities and to support social and economic growth and must be protected from damage in the context of future threats related to the environmental consequences of climate change. Those consequences include natural disasters, i.e., landslides, which can cause destruction of water infrastructure, causing distress for water users, cascading effects to other critical infrastructures and environmental impacts. Vulnerability analyses represent a key point in international risk management programs for protecting critical infrastructure, especially in the context of climate change. In this paper, a methodology is proposed to evaluate crucial water supply infrastructure vulnerabilities based on multiple indicators. A learning-from-experience approach is applied to establish specific indicators for vulnerability assessment. Eight different indicators are identified, divided into four categories, regarding land characteristics, service inefficiencies for users due to infrastructure failure, pipeline route characteristics, and physical characteristics of the aqueduct pipe. Along with the indicators, a graphical representation is proposed using the Kiviat chart, producing a vulnerability chart that represents a useful tool to identify the main vulnerability factors in existing water supply infrastructure, in the management of interventions and in the planning and design processes of new infrastructure and for comparing different design solutions.
The 2021 unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave broke temperature records by extraordinary amounts. Impacts included hundreds of deaths, mass-mortalities of marine life, increased wildfires, reduced crop and fruit yields, and river flooding. In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region of Canada and the United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 & DEG;C, and the Canadian national temperature record was broken by 4.6 & DEG;C, with a new record temperature of 49.6 & DEG;C. Here, we provide a comprehensive summary of this event and its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played a key role in the magnitude of this anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice of the event, while sub-seasonal forecasts showed an increased likelihood of a heat extreme with lead times of 10-20 days. The impacts of this event were catastrophic, including hundreds of attributable deaths across the Pacific Northwest, mass-mortalities of marine life, reduced crop and fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow and glacier melt, and a substantial increase in wildfires-the latter contributing to landslides in the months following. These impacts provide examples we can learn from and a vivid depiction of how climate change can be so devastating.
The actual impact of landslides in Pakistan is highly underestimated and has not been addressed to its full extent. This study focuses on the impact which landslides had in the last 17 years, with focus on mortality, gender of deceased, main triggers (landslides and fatal landslides), and regional identification of the hotspots in Pakistan. Our study identified 1089 landslides (including rockfalls, rockslides, mudslides, mudflows, debris flows) out of which 180 landslides were fatal and claimed lives of 1072 people. We found that rain (rainfall and heavy rainfall)-related landslides were the deadliest over the entire study period. The main trigger of landslides in Pakistan is heavy rainfall which comprises over 50% of the triggers for the landslide, and combined with normal rainfall, this rate climbs to over 63%. The second main reason for landslide occurrence is spontaneous (due to rock instability, erosion, climate change, and other geological elements) with landslides accounting for 22.3% of all the landslides. Landslides caused by rain-related events amounted to 41.67% of the fatalities, whereas spontaneous landslides caused 29.44% of the deaths and the human induced events accounted for 25.5% of the fatalities. The fatal landslides accounted for 19.53% deaths of the children. Our study also found that more than 48% of the deadly landslides occurred between the months of January to April, whereas the least fatal landslides occurred in the month of June which accounted for only 3% of all the fatal landslides in Pakistan.
Landslides are the most frequent type of natural hazard in the Azores archipelago, primarily due to the volcanic nature and geomorphologic features of the islands. The NATHA (Natural Hazards in Azores) database is a repository of documents reporting those natural disaster events that have occurred on the Azores since their settlement in the mid-fifteenth century. This work presents and explores the landslide events that have occurred on Sao Miguel Island in the period 1900-2020. A total of 236 landslide events were catalogued. The temporal distribution of the landslide events reveals a higher concentration of events after 1996, which is related to a change in the rainfall regime but also to the increasing dissemination of information. The influence of climate change on landslide occurrence is demonstrated for the first time in the Azores. The landslide events catalogued in the NATHA database were responsible for 82 fatalities, 41 injuries and 305 people made homeless, while 66 buildings were partially or completely destroyed. The spatial distribution of landslide events shows that Povoacao is the municipality most prone to landslide occurrence as well as to landslide impact. Rainfall was the triggering factor of most landslide events (70%) on Sao Miguel Island, and landslide events have been most frequent during the wettest months of the year from November to March. The obtained results demonstrate the need of landslides prevention and preparedness programs in specific areas of Sao Miguel Island.
An extreme rainstorm can cause thousands of landslides and kill hundreds of people. In the changing climate, fatal rainstorms become more frequent and intense. The current landslide emergency management evaluates hazard intensities but lacks key information on likely consequences. This study presents a novel prompt quantitative risk assessment method for rain-induced landslides. The proposed method automatically generates a one-page risk assessment report within minutes to support effective risk communication, resource allocation, and emergency response. The propagation of uncertainties is quantified in a scientific probabilistic framework. The proposed method is tested using 83 major rainstorms during 1995-2016 in Hong Kong. The method accurately predicts the number of affected buildings and the number of potential fatalities and identifies rainstorms that can trigger fatal landslides. The proposed method contributes to the advancement of landslide emergency management from hazard-informed to risk-informed, which will significantly enhance societal resilience and facilitate climate change adaptation.
Climate change is contributing to the magnitude, frequency and location of natural hazards, including landslides and landslide-triggered tsunamis. As the costs of protecting against a given risk increase, relocation may become the only feasible option despite the socio-economic, human security and cultural consequences. The relocation of people represents one of the most complex governance challenges generated by climate change. This article contributes to the literature by presenting insights and lessons from two case studies of unprecedented landslide-triggered tsunami risk in recently deglaciated areas that have not previously been described in the relocation literature: the unstable Svinafellsheioi slopes in south-east Iceland, and Karrat and Uummannaq Fjords in north-west Greenland. Our results draw attention to the need for planned relocation to be conducted in-line with international best practices, including those relating to the active involvement of affected people in decision-making, ensuring adequate compensation, and clarifying relocation planning schedules. This has occurred against a backdrop of colonial power dynamics, urbanisation trends, and the rise of tourism in these locations. Based on the findings, we recommend that the role of government pivot from determining risk management and relocation options, to providing a structure to underpin and support community agency.
Natural hazards can produce relevant impacts on people, particularly on their life, health, proper-ties, that are expected to increase for climate change. Sustainable approaches aiming at mitigat-ing, adapting and reducing the vulnerability of people exposed to these hazards have to be based on the analysis of the risk perception. Many aspects (e.g. social, cultural, psychological) even au-tocorrelated, can affect the perception assessment. Furthermore, identifying factors that influ-ence or determine risk perception can help to implement more effective communication strate-gies. In this paper, the Italian young people’s awareness, perception and preparation about nat-ural risks, mainly landslide and flood risk, as well as climate change are investigated. A survey was carried out by means of voluntary questionnaries on a group of Italian high school students, aged between 13 and 20, in central (Umbria region) and southern (Calabria region) Italy. The re-sults reveal that the students surveyed are aware of the climate change issue and of the its effects on nature and environment. The output of the two surveys confirms the relevant role of mass me-dia in terms of perception, knowledge and information about climate change and related impacts on young people. Moreover, a low level of trust in local administrations and a negative opinion on the policy about geo-hydrological risk have also emerged.
With the increasingly adverse impact of global warming on extreme weather conditions, including landslides, it is more important than ever to alert the public to landslide risks so that people can take precautionary measures. We report the first major project in Hong Kong assessing the public’s understanding of landslides and perceptions of the Landslip Early Warning System (“current LEWS”) and exploring the perceived usefulness of the concept of a multi-tiered LEWS (“multi-tiered LEWS”). In Study 1, we gauged the public’s understanding of landslides and knowledge of the current LEWS by collecting information from five focus groups. That information was used to construct the survey that we administered in Study 2, in which 1834 individuals participated in face-to-face interviews. The results show that only 37% of the participants saw the connection between global warming and landslides. The majority of the sample believed that slope safety has clearly improved over the last decade (88%) and that landslides are a remote concern (91%). Although 90% of the participants were aware of the current LEWS, only 28% were concerned about it because it had little impact on their residential or activity areas. The concept of a multi-tiered LEWS was positively received, although there is an urgent need for further research to demonstrate how to implement this concept with sufficient public education to ensure that it will improve public alertness of landslides.
Understanding the location of risk to natural hazards, namely the areas of high exposure and vulnerability is a major priority that was identified by the Sendai framework for Disaster Reduction 2015-2030 in order to reach substantial reduction of disaster risk. It is also a necessary decision-making tool for disaster mitigation policy-makers in Japan and around the world. This paper successfully develops a simple methodology using only open data to build the first large-scale (whole country), fine resolution (sub-municipal level) social vulnerability analysis in the context of five different types of natural hazards (earthquake, tsunami, storm surge, flooding and landslide). The result is then compared to an indicator of exposure of population to these hazards in Japan in order to propose a representation of disaster risk. Results show that vulnerability in Japan is highly heterogeneous with urban/rural and north/south fractures. Combining the social vulnerability index with exposure analysis, results show a wide variety of spatial patterns of risk areas in Japan.
Natural disasters in the Central Highlands of Vietnam are increasing and therefore becoming a concern for the provincial governments. The local authorities’ recent ability to respond to natural disasters in the region is considered ineffective, as evidenced by the increasing number of deaths and economic losses. Here, we focus on presenting and analyzing the current capacity of local authorities in the Central Highlands of Vietnam to respond to natural disasters in a normal state and in transitioning to an emergency state. We also provide evidence of natural disasters that have occurred and the actions undertaken by the Central Highlands provinces over the period 2015-2021. Our analysis shows that the capacity of local authorities to respond to natural disasters in the region is not commensurate with the actual requirements, in the dry season, the drought area increases, in the rainy season floods occur more, and human losses and economic losses have not been controlled. We propose that first of all, the government needs to have a system of timely guidance documents, the coordination between relevant agencies, secondly, that civil servants working in disaster response work must be capable, thirdly, the government must there should be publicity on how to respond, four is to limit the hot growth of projects such as hydroelectric projects, five is that the government must have a long-term master plan and sixth is to pay attention to livelihoods, education level of local ethnic people. These proposals can gradually control and limit the damage caused by increasingly severe natural disasters in the Central Highlands.
Landslides are a geological hazard commonly induced by rainfall, earthquakes, deforestation, or human activity causing loss of human life every year specially on highlands or mountain slopes with serious impacts that threaten communities and its infrastructure. The incidence and recurrence of landslides are conditioned by several aspects related to soil properties, geological structure, climatic conditions, soil cover, and water flow. Precisely, Colombia is one of the most affected by this type of natural hazard, as well as by floods, since they are the natural phenomena that bring with them the most severe risks for communities. In this work, we articulated the statistical approach of the landslide conditioning factors, Machine Learning Algorithms (MLA), and Geographic Information System (GIS), evaluating a flexible and agile methodology to estimate the landslide susceptibility defining areas prone to the landslide occurrence. The MLA were validated in a case study in the “La Liboriana” River basin, located in the Municipality of Salgar in the Colombian mountains Andes where Landslide Susceptibility Maps (LSMs) were obtained. The obtained MLA results hold immense potential in the field of regional landslide mapping, facilitating the development of effective strategies aimed at minimizing the devastating impacts on human lives, infrastructure, and the natural environment. By leveraging these findings, proactive measures can be devised to safeguard vulnerable areas, mitigate risks, and ensure the safety and well-being of communities. Seven supervised MLA were employed, two regression algorithms (Logistic) and five decision tree algorithms (Recursive Partitioning and Regression Trees [RPART], Conditional Inference Trees [CTREE], Random Forest [RF], Ranger, and Extreme Gradient Boosting Algorithm [XGBoost]). The LSMs were produced for each MLA. Considering different performance metrics, the RF model yields the best classification accuracy with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 95% and 90% of accuracy, providing the most representative results. Finally, the contribution of each landslide conditioning factor on predictions with RF model is explained using the SHAP method.
Climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events and, consequently, the number of oc-currences of natural disasters. In Brazil, among these disasters, floods, flash floods, and landslides account for the highest number of deaths, the latter being the most lethal. Bearing in mind the importance of monitoring areas susceptible to disasters, the REMADEN/REDEGEO project of the National Center for Monitoring and Natural Disaster Alerts (Cemaden) has promoted the installation of a network of soil moisture sensors in regions with a long history of landslides. This network was used in the present paper as a base to develop a system for moisture forecasting in those critical zones. The time series of rainfall and moisture were used in an inversion algorithm to obtain the geotechnical parameters of the soil. Then the geotechnical model was used in a forward calculation with the rainfall prediction to obtain the soil moisture forecast. The landslide events of March 2020 and May 2022 in Guaruj ‘ a and Recife, respectively, were used as study cases for the developed system. The obtained results indicate that the proposed methodology has the potential to be used as an important tool in the decision-making process for issuing landslide alerts.
Coastal regions in Southwest Europe have experienced major interventions and transformations of the territory with unprecedented urban development, primarily related to growing tourism activity. The coast is the place where marine and terrestrial processes converge, making it highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, the lack of information on the frequency of these extreme weather events and their impacts on the coast hampers an accurate analysis of the consequences of global change. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the extreme weather events (EWE) that have affected the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts of Southwest Europe during the period from 1 January 2009 to 28 February 2020, as well as a quantification of their impacts: fatalities, injuries and economic damage. Official sources from France, Portugal and Spain were consulted, along with technical reports, scientific articles, etc., to generate a unified database. A total of 95 significant extreme events have caused 168 fatalities, 137 injuries and almost euro4000 M in direct economic losses. Cyclone Xynthia (February 2010) on the French Atlantic coast stands out, having caused 47 fatalities, 79 injuries and substantial economic losses valued at euro3000 M. The study shows a slight upward trend in the number of events recorded, especially during the last three years of the analysis, as well as in human losses and damages. The results reveal a higher exposure of the Mediterranean coast of Southwest Europe when compared to the Atlantic, especially the Spanish Mediterranean coast, with 61% of the fatalities recorded there during the study period. This is primarily due to a model of exponential tourism growth on the Mediterranean coast, with an enormous urban and infrastructure development during the last decades. Traditionally, the Mediterranean coast is less prepared to reduce the effects of marine storms, extreme events that are becoming more frequent and virulent in the context of climate and global change. This work highlights the need to create a continuous monitoring system-at the European level-of the impacts of extreme weather events on the coast, where 40% of the European population is concentrated. This observatory should serve as a source of information for risk mitigation policies (predictive, preventive and corrective), as well as for emergency management during disasters.
Food insecurity is a key global health challenge that is likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Though climate change is associated with an increased frequency of extreme weather events, little is known about how multiple environmental shocks in close succession interact to impact household health and well-being. In this paper, we assess how earthquake exposure followed by monsoon rainfall anomalies affect food insecurity in Nepal. We link food security data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey to data on shaking intensity during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and rainfall anomalies during the 2015 monsoon season. We then exploit spatial variation in exposure to the earthquake and monsoon rainfall anomalies to isolate their independent and compound effects. We find that earthquake exposure alone was not associated with an increased likelihood of food insecurity, likely due in part to effective food aid distribution. However, the effects of rainfall anomalies differed by severity of earthquake exposure. Among households minimally impacted by the earthquake, low rainfall was associated with increased food insecurity, likely due to lower agricultural productivity in drought conditions. Among households that experienced at least moderate shaking, greater rainfall was positively associated with food insecurity, particularly in steep, mountainous areas. In these locations, rainfall events disproportionately increased landslides, which damaged roads, disrupted distribution of food aid, and destroyed agricultural land and assets. Additional research on the social impacts of compound environmental shocks is needed to inform adaptation strategies that work to improve well-being in the face of climate change.
PURPOSE: This report describes the general impact and direct health effects including death and traumatic injuries on populations impacted by the 2017 landslides in the affected hilly and coastal districts in southeastern Bangladesh. The medical response including emergency treatment and rehabilitation provided at pre-hospital and hospital care sites is also described. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An electronic literature search of appropriate databases was performed to identify relevant articles on landslides in Bangladesh, Southeast Asia, and other developing countries from 1990-2017. Summary landslide impact data was extracted from official government and non-government reports and injury data from selected district and tertiary level hospitals was reviewed. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Most fatalities in the 2017 Bangladesh landslides were due to suffocation and asphyxiation from burial. In Rangamati District, 6343 persons with minor injuries were treated in 22 emergency shelters. One hundred fifty-four injuries were treated at Rangamati General Hospital and 12 of the most severely injured persons were referred to regional tertiary Chittagong Medical College Hospital for specialized injury and rehabilitation management. Physical rehabilitation capacity and services in future landslides may be increased by providing rehabilitation technical skills training to responders and augmenting the emergency response with individual rehabilitation specialists and/or teams of rehabilitation professionals.Implications for rehabilitationLandslides may result in significant direct health effects including death and rehabilitation conditions such as severe traumatic physical injuries and less severe musculoskeletal conditions.Pre-hospital and hospital emergency medical response systems may lack capacity to adequately manage the surge of rehabilitation conditions in landslides.Physical rehabilitation treatment capacity in future landslides may be increased by providing rehabilitation technical skills training to responders and augmenting the emergency response structure with individual rehabilitation specialists and/or teams of rehabilitation professionals.Rehabilitation, disability, emergency management, and other stakeholders are advised to employ such training and workforce strategies to reduce rehabilitation-related health effects in Bangladesh and other South-East Asian countries which are heavily impacted by landslides due to seasonal monsoons.
Landslides being a widespread disaster are associated with susceptibility, vulnerability and risk. The physical factors inducing landslides are relatively well-known. However, how landslide susceptibility will be exacerbated by climate change, impede the attainment of the sustainable development goals and increase health vulnerability is relatively less explored. We present an integrated assessment of landslide susceptibility, health vulnerability and overall risk to understand these interconnected dimensions using Arunachal Pradesh, India, as a case study, which is susceptible to landslides due to its topography and climate conditions. Landslide susceptibility was examined using twenty landslide conditioning parameters through the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The susceptibility map was validated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). National Family Health Survey (NFHS 4) data were used to analyze the health vulnerability, while the overall risk was computed through the integration of susceptibility and vulnerability. Landslide susceptibility analysis indicated that nearly 22% area of the state is characterized by moderate susceptibility followed by high (17%) and very high susceptibility (13%). High elevation, slope, rainfall, SPI, drainage density and complex geology were identified as the causative factors of landslides. In the case of health vulnerability, East Kameng and Lohit districts were found to be very highly vulnerable, while Papum Pare, Changlang and Tirap districts experience high health vulnerability due to high degree of exposure and sensitivity. Overall risk analysis revealed over 16.8% area of the state is under moderate risk followed by high (9.8%) and very high (4.2%) risk. Linking this analysis with the climate change projections and SDG goals attainment revealed that Papum Pare, Upper Subansiri, Tirap and West Kameng require priority for lessening susceptibility, vulnerability and risk for achieving sustainable development. A strong correlation (99%) between HVI and risk further demonstrates the need for lessening health vulnerability and risk in the study area. Furthermore, our study contributes additional insights into landslide susceptibility by considering heal vulnerability and risk which may help in planning sustainable development strategies in a changing climate.
The Uttarakhand State, known for its Himalayan Mountains, is a territory in Northern India that is extremely vulnerable to earthquakes, landslides, and floods. Currently, due to the COVID-19 outbreak, India is facing the dual challenge of containing a pandemic and responding to natural disasters. This situation can have a negative impact on the health and the economic development of the region, leading to a long-lasting humanitarian crisis that can disrupt even more, the already overburdened health service. In addition, it can pose serious threats to the wellbeing of the population as it complicates physical distancing and other COVID-19 prevention measures. It is of utmost importance to analyse the impact of floods, landslides, and COVID-19 pandemic on the health system of the Uttarakhand State, and how these crises interact with each other.
People with visual impairments (PwVI) represent a heterogeneous social group who often experience significant disabling barriers in exercising their rights throughout their life course. Understanding dimensions of vulnerability of PwVI to disasters and climate change is an important issue to reduce the culture of neglected disasters. To date, few studies have analyzed visual impairment and disaster risk reduction (DRR) in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. This exploratory qualitative research project analyzed how to include PwVI in the DRR policies of Brazil. The research question is: how can we include PwVI in the discussion of DRR and climate change? The response to this question is part of a joint effort that involved a university, a hazard monitoring agency, and three institutions that work with PwVI. The three main results of the project are: (1) a mapping method to identify the exposure of PwVI to landslides and floods, and to create tactile risk maps tailored to them; (2) incorporating the voices of PwVI regarding their vulnerabilities and capacities with respect to disasters and climate change, achieved through shared interaction during 15 face to face interviews and one workshop attended by 100 people; and (3) an initiative of inclusive education to reduce some of the disabling barriers that intensify vulnerability.
Landslides typify one of the most hazardous natural phenomena fostering economic and even human losses worldwide. Several countries like Colombia, in South America, are hotspots for fatal landslides. In this contribution, we thoroughly reviewed four available databases, articles, grey literature and web resources, in order to build up a new catalogue of fatal landslides in Colombia. We gathered a catalogue of 2351 individual fatal landslides which caused about 37,959 deaths. Of these, we found 11 fatal events in historical times (pre-twentieth century). In modern times (1912-2020), we analysed landslides’ spatial and temporal distribution, finding that in central-western Colombia, particularly in the departments of Caldas, Risaralda, Quindio and Antioquia, these kinds of events are more frequent. Upward trends in these areas and a nationwide increase in the number of events in the last 20 years suggest that fatal landslides are far from being effectively mitigated. Our findings also show a strong correlation between the climate variability phenomenon known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and fatal landslides, particularly during those years when strong La Nina (cold phase of ENSO) events occur. Despite rainfall being the most common trigger for fatal landslides, we observed an increasing trend in anthropogenically related events in the last decade. Finally, we obtained multiple socio-economic indices and ran a statistical analysis at the departmental level in order to assess whether impoverished and vulnerable people are more affected by fatal landslides. We propose that in most cases, departments with low income, high levels of corruption and inequality are usually more affected.
Landslides triggered by rainfall kill people worldwide, and frequent extreme events that are expected to be an effect of climate change could exacerbate this problem. This review aims to identify recent research, highlighting both the dynamics of landslide accidents and the characteristics of victims. From SCOPUS and WOS databases, using the PRISMA (preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analysis) approach, 25 articles written in English, published in the January 2010-March 2022 period and focused on landslide fatalities, were mined. The selected articles recognized a worldwide underestimation of landslide fatalities and analyzed landslide mortality from three perspectives, indicating the importance of this topic for a multidisciplinary research community. The papers focused on (a) fatal landslides and their geographic distribution, seasonality, trends, and relationships with socioeconomic indicators; (b) landslide fatalities and their behaviors and the dynamics of accidents; and (c) clinical causes of death or injury types, aiming to improve emergency rescue procedures. The gaps that emerged include (a) the insufficient reuse of valuable fatality databases; (b) the absence of simple take-home messages for citizens, practitioners, schoolteachers, and policymakers, aiming to set educational campaigns and adaptation measures; and (c) the lack of joint research projects between researchers working on landslides and doctors treating victims to provide complete research results that would be able to actually reduce landslide mortality.
El Nino is a critical part of global inter-annual climate variability, and the intensity of El Nino has major implications for rainfall-induced natural hazards in many vulnerable countries. The impact of landslides triggered by rainfall is likely to be modulated by the strength of El Nino, but the nature of this connection and the places where it is most relevant remains unconstrained. Here we combine new satellite rainfall data with a global landslide exposure model to show that El Nino has far-reaching effects on landslide impacts to people and infrastructure. We find that the impact of El Nino on landslide exposure can be greater in parts of Southeast Asia and Latin America than that due to seasonal rainfall variability. These findings improve our understanding of hazard variability around the world and can assist disaster mitigation efforts on seasonal timescales.
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to describe and analyse the most severe casualties from the flash flood and mudslides occurring on 14 July 2021 in Germany, focusing on patients who were treated in the closest and largest level I trauma centre in the region the disaster occurred. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective study design was employed, and all patients treated because of the flooding and mudslides who needed inpatient treatment were documented. Data on each patient’s demographic characteristics, type of injury, number of surgeries, duration of hospitalisation, operation time, revision rate, injury severity score (ISS), and complications were collected. The primary outcome measure was status at discharge. RESULTS: Within the first week after the flood, a total of 63 patients were documented. Forty-one patients were treated on an outpatient basis in the emergency unit, and 22 patients were hospitalised. Of those hospitalised, 15 patients needed surgical treatment in the operation theatre. The most common injuries were fractures of the lower extremity (n = 7) and soft tissue wounds (n = 4). Overall, 20 surgeries were performed; the mean hospital stay was 7.2 ± 6.4 days, and the mean ISS was 5.7 ± 2.7. CONCLUSION: The July 2021 flood disaster was one of the largest in German history. The included patients showed complex injuries of various types. Because of the effects of climate change, orthopaedic surgeons might face higher numbers of casualties affected by natural disasters. Learning more about the management and profile of these injuries can become a future challenge for orthopaedic and trauma surgeons.
In addition to global population growth due to migration from rural areas to urban areas, population density is constantly increasing in certain regions, thereby necessitating the introduction of new settlements in these regions. However, in the selection of settlement areas, no sufficient preliminary examinations have been conducted; consequently, various natural disasters may cause significant life and property losses. Herein, the most suitable settlement areas were determined using GIS (geographic information systems) in Canik District, where the population is continuously increasing. Therefore, this study aimed to incorporate a new perspective into studies on this subject. Within the scope of the study, landslide and flood risks, which are among the most important natural disasters in the region, were primarily evaluated, and high-risk areas were determined. Elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, lithology, topographic humidity index (TWI), and proximity to river parameters were used to produce flood susceptibility maps. A digital elevation model (DEM) of the study area was produced using contours on the 1/25,000 scaled topographic map. The elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, and TWI parameters were produced from the DEM using the relevant analysis routines of ArcGIS software. The raster map of each parameter was divided into 5 subclasses using the natural breaks classification method. In the reclassified raster maps, the most flood-sensitive or flood-prone subclasses were assigned a value of 5, and the least sensitive subclasses were assigned a value of 1. Then, the reclassified maps of the 7 parameters were collected using the “map algebra” function of ArcGIS 10.5 software, and the flood susceptibility index (FSI) map of the study area was obtained. The flood susceptibility map of the study area was obtained by dividing the FSI into 5 subclasses (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high) according to the natural breaks classification method. Thereafter, suitable and unsuitable areas in terms of biocomfort, which affects people’s health, peace, comfort, and psychology and is significant in terms of energy efficiency, were determined. At the last stage of the study, the most suitable settlement areas that were suitable in terms of both biocomfort and low levels of landslide and flood risks were determined. The calculated proportion of such areas to the total study area was only 2.1%. Therefore, because these areas were insufficient for the establishment of new settlements, areas that had low landslide and flood risks but were unsuitable for biocomfort were secondarily determined; the ratio of these areas was calculated as 56.8%. The remaining areas were inconvenient for the establishment of settlements due to the risk of landslides and floods; the ratio of these areas was calculated as 41.1%. This study is exemplary in that the priority for the selection of settlement areas was specified, and this method can be applied for selecting new settlements for each region considering different criteria. Due to the risk of landslides or flooding in the study area, the areas unsuitable for establishing a settlement covered approximately 41.1% of the total study area. The areas that had low flood and landslide risks but were suitable for biocomfort constituted only 2.1% of the study area. In approximately 56.8% of the study area, the risk of landslides or floods was low, and these areas were unsuitable in terms of biocomfort. Therefore, these areas were secondarily preferred as settlement areas. The most suitable areas for settlements constituted only 0.19% of the total study area, and these areas will not be able to meet the increasing demand for settlement area. Therefore, it is recommended to select areas that do not have the risk of landslides and floods but are unsuitable for biocomfort. This study reveals that grading should be performed in the selection of settlement areas. When choosing a settlement area in any region, possible natural disasters in the region should be identified first, and these disasters should be ordered in terms of their threat potential. Moreover, biocomfort areas suitable for settlements should be considered. In the next stages of settlement area selection, the criteria that affect the peace and comfort of people, such as distance to pollution sources, distance to noise sources, and proximity to natural areas, should also be evaluated. Thus, a priority order should be created for the selection of settlement areas using various other criteria.
Landslides are the most frequent and diffuse natural hazards in Italy causing the greatest number of fatalities and damage to urban areas. The integration of natural hazard information and social media data could improve warning systems to enhance the awareness of disaster managers and citizens about emergency events. The news about landslide events in newspapers or crowdsourcing platforms allows fast observation, surveying and classification. Currently, few studies have been produced on the combination of social media data and traditional sensors. This gap indicates that it is unclear how their integration can effectively provide emergency managers with appropriate knowledge. In this work, rainfall, human lives, and earmarked fund data sources were correlated to “landslide news”. Analysis was applied to obtain information about temporal (2010-2019) and spatial (regional and warning hydrological zone scale) distribution. The temporal distribution of the data shows a continuous increase from 2015 until 2019 for both landslide and rainfall events. The number of people involved and the amount of earmarked funds do not exhibit any clear trend. The spatial distribution displays good correlation between “landslide news”, traditional sensors (e.g., pluviometers) and possible effects in term of fatalities. In addition, the cost of soil protection, in monetary terms, indicates the effects of events.
Shallow landslides (SLs) are rapid soil mass movements, typically occurring in the mountain areas, involving the most superficial soil layers up to 5 to 10 m in depth. Damages, and casualties due to shallow landslides are recorded globally, and in literature a variety of models to study landslides have been implemented hitherto. Often times, shallow landslides occur in the wake of snowfall events, when sudden temperature increase triggers fast snow thaw, and soil moisture increases thereby. Several models studied the influence of intensity, and duration of rainfall upon shallow landslides, but the effect of snow melt in spring/summer was little considered so far. Thus, we developed a simple but robust, and parameter-wise parsimonious model, that mimics the triggering mechanism of SLs, accounting for the combined effect of precipitation duration and intensity, and snowmelt at thaw. The model is here applied to the case study of the high altitude Tartano basin, paradigmatic of SLs in the Alps of Lombardia. Our results showed that about 26 % of the Tartano basin slopes display unstable conditions. Using a traditional (i.e. rainfall-based) approach, the occurrence of shallow landslides was predicted in ca. 19 % of the basin, mainly during storms in October and November. In contrast, when snowmelt was included, the model was able to mimic potential SLs even during April and May, when snow melt rate is the highest, and may increase SLs triggering potential, to ca. 26 % of the treated area. With better spatial and temporal description of slope failure as achieved here, validated against observed failures, a public authority may be prepared to implement emergency plans, to prevent injuries, causalities, and damages to infrastructures even during springtime, when shallow landslides may occur in response to fast snowmelt, even during dry, clear sky days, and with scarce/null precipitation.
Landslides are natural hazards that cause severe damage and human losses. Japan has succeeded in reducing the number of landslide fatalities and is one of the few countries with long-term databases of landslide fatalities. In this study, we identified the factors that contributed to the decrease in fatalities associated with rainfall-triggered landslides in Japan between 1945 and 2019. We examined trends in landslide fatalities and six factors for Periods I, II, III, IV, and V-each period spans 15 years of the study period-and for Periods I-II, II-III, III-IV, and IV-V. We examined the trends in the number of landslides (N(L)) and in the ratio between the number of fatalities (N(F)) and the number of landslides (N(F)/N(L)), and considered fatalities as the product of the number of landslides and the probability of fatalities. The number of fatalities decreased continuously between Periods I and IV; the rate of the decrease declined over time. During Period I-II, N(F)/N(L) decreased, whereas N(L) remained unchanged. Decreases in the average number of household members, changes in building structure, and increases in the number of people evacuated may have contributed to the decrease in N(F)/N(L). During Periods II-III and III-IV, N(L) also decreased. During Period II-III, the area of mature forests increased slowly. During Period III-IV, the implementation of structural measures (i.e., hard measures) was aggressively pursued. The factors that contributed to the decrease in landslide fatalities changed with time, suggesting that measures for reducing landslide fatalities changed according to the degree of maturity of the nation. Furthermore, we identified increases in rainfall and N(L) in Period V, which might indicate a future increase in landslide fatalities.
