The actual impact of landslides in Pakistan is highly underestimated and has not been addressed to its full extent. This study focuses on the impact which landslides had in the last 17 years, with focus on mortality, gender of deceased, main triggers (landslides and fatal landslides), and regional identification of the hotspots in Pakistan. Our study identified 1089 landslides (including rockfalls, rockslides, mudslides, mudflows, debris flows) out of which 180 landslides were fatal and claimed lives of 1072 people. We found that rain (rainfall and heavy rainfall)-related landslides were the deadliest over the entire study period. The main trigger of landslides in Pakistan is heavy rainfall which comprises over 50% of the triggers for the landslide, and combined with normal rainfall, this rate climbs to over 63%. The second main reason for landslide occurrence is spontaneous (due to rock instability, erosion, climate change, and other geological elements) with landslides accounting for 22.3% of all the landslides. Landslides caused by rain-related events amounted to 41.67% of the fatalities, whereas spontaneous landslides caused 29.44% of the deaths and the human induced events accounted for 25.5% of the fatalities. The fatal landslides accounted for 19.53% deaths of the children. Our study also found that more than 48% of the deadly landslides occurred between the months of January to April, whereas the least fatal landslides occurred in the month of June which accounted for only 3% of all the fatal landslides in Pakistan.
Soil microbiomes continue to evolve and shape the human microbiota according to external anthropogenic and climate change effects. Ancient microbes are being exposed as a result of glacier melting, soil erosion and poor agricultural practices. Soil microbes subtly regulate greenhouse gas emissions and undergo profound alterations due to poor soil maintenance. This review highlights how the soil microbiome influences human digestion processes, mineral and vitamin production, mental health and mood stimulation. Although much about microbial functions remains unknown, increasing evidence suggests that beneficial soil microbes are vital for enhancing human tolerance to diseases and pathogens. Further research is essential to delineate the specific role of the soil microbiome in promoting human health, especially in light of the increasing anthropogenic pressures and changing climatic conditions.
Sea-level rise (SLR) will cause coastal groundwater to rise in many coastal urban environments. Inundation of contaminated soils by groundwater rise (GWR) will alter the physical, biological, and geochemical conditions that influence the fate and transport of existing contaminants. These transformed products can be more toxic and/or more mobile under future conditions driven by SLR and GWR. We reviewed the vulnerability of contaminated sites to GWR in a US national database and in a case comparison with the San Francisco Bay region to estimate the risk of rising groundwater to human and ecosystem health. The results show that 326 sites in the US Superfund program may be vulnerable to changes in groundwater depth or flow direction as a result of SLR, representing 18.1 million hectares of contaminated land. In the San Francisco Bay Area, we found that GWR is predicted to impact twice as much land area as inundation from SLR, and 5,282 additional state-managed sites of contamination may be vulnerable to inundation from GWR in a 1.0 m SLR scenario. Increases of only a few centimeters of elevation can mobilize soil contaminants, alter flow directions in a heterogeneous urban environment with underground pipes and utility trenches, and result in new exposure pathways. Pumping for flood protection will elevate the saltwater interface, changing groundwater salinity and mobilizing metals in soil. Socially vulnerable communities are disproportionately exposed to this risk at both the national scale and in a regional comparison with the San Francisco Bay Area. We estimated the number of sites with known contamination in the US Superfund program at the national scale and found 326 Superfund sites that may be exposed to inundation from below as rising sea levels push groundwater higher along the coast. California, North Carolina, Virginia, and New York have the largest area of federally managed contaminated land that may be exposed. Thousands of additional sites are managed by state agencies. We conducted a comparison in the San Francisco Bay Area that included state-managed sites. We found that more than 5,000 sites in the San Francisco region may be exposed to rising groundwater with sea-level rise (SLR) of 1.0 m, including 1,480 open sites, and an additional 3,817 closed sites that may contain residual contaminants. If the ratio of Superfund to state-managed sites in this region (1:406) holds, the number of at-risk contaminated sites nationally may be more than 132,000. Low-income residents and people of color are disproportionately represented near these sites and therefore may face higher risks. Additional sub-regional research is urgently needed to understand these exposures. Interactions will occur between the salinity of rising coastal groundwater and shallow pumping, affecting infrastructure and building foundations. Adaptation plans must consider rising groundwater to avoid widespread failures. Rising sea levels will cause rising groundwater to inundate some coastal contaminated sites, mobilizing pollutants and causing corrosionWe found 326 Superfund sites that may be at risk nationally, and more than 5,000 state managed sites in a San Francisco Bay area comparisonSocially vulnerable communities are disproportionately exposed to this hazard, with potential impacts on indoor air, foundations and infrastructure
The expansion of tick-borne diseases challenges ecologists, epidemiologists, and public health professionals to understand the mechanisms underlying its emergence. The vast majority of tick-borne disease research emphasizes Ixodes spp. and Borrelia burgdorferi, with less known about other Ixodidae ticks that serve as vectors for an increasing number of pathogens of public health concern. Here, we review and discuss the current knowledge of tick and tick-borne pathogens in an undersurveilled region of the United States. We discuss how landscape shifts may potentially influence tick vector dynamics and expansion. We also discuss the impact of climate change on the phenology of ticks and subsequent disease transmission. Increased efforts in the Central Plains to conduct basic science will help understand the patterns of tick distribution and pathogen prevalence. It is crucial to develop intensive datasets that may be used to generate models that can aid in developing mitigation strategies.
Crimean Congo Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), is an emerging zoonosis globally and in India. The present study focused on identifying the risk factors for occurrence of CCHF in the Indian state of Gujarat and development of risk map for India. The past CCHF outbreaks in India were collated for the analyses. Influence of land use change and climatic factors in determining the occurrence of CCHF in Gujarat was assessed using Bayesian spatial models. Change in maximum temperature in affected districts was analysed to identify the significant change points over 110 years. Risk map was developed for Gujarat using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) model with remotely sensed environmental variables and host (livestock and human) factors. We found the change in land use patterns and maximum temperature in affected districts to be contributing to the occurrence of CCHF in Gujarat. Spatial risk map developed using CCHF occurrence data for Gujarat identified density of buffalo, minimum land surface temperature and elevation as risk determinants. Further, spatial risk map for the occurrence of CCHF in India was developed using selected variables. Overall, we found that combination of factors such as change in land-use patterns, maximum temperature, buffalo density, day time minimum land surface temperature and elevation led to the emergence and further spread of the disease in India. Mitigation measures for CCHF in India could be designed considering disease epidemiology and initiation of surveillance strategies based on the risk map developed in this study.
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease with increasing incidence and geographic extent. The extent to which global climate change affects the incidence of SFTS disease remains obscure. We use an integrated multi-model, multi-scenario framework to assess the impact of global climate change on SFTS disease in China. The spatial distribution of habitat suitability for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis was predicted by applying a boosted regression tree model under four alternative climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) for the periods 2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089. We incorporate the SFTS cases in the mainland of China from 2010 to 2019 with environmental variables and the projected distribution of H. longicornis into a generalized additive model to explore the current and future spatiotemporal dynamics of SFTS. Our results demonstrate an expanded geographic distribution of H. longicornis toward Northern and Northwestern China, showing a more pronounced change under the RCP8.5 scenario. In contrast, the environmental suitability of H. longicornis is predicted to be reduced in Central and Eastern China. The SFTS incidence in three time periods (2030-2039, 2050-2059, and 2080-2089) is predicted to be increased as compared to the 2010s in the context of various RCPs. A heterogeneous trend across provinces, however, was observed, when an increased incidence in Liaoning and Shandong provinces, while decreased incidence in Henan province is predicted. Notably, we predict possible outbreaks in Xinjiang and Yunnan in the future, where only sporadic cases have been reported previously. These findings highlight the need for tick control and population awareness of SFTS in endemic regions, and enhanced monitoring in potential risk areas.
Introduction: Climate change alters environmental and climatic conditions, leading to expansion or contraction and possible shifts in the geographical distribution of vectors that transmit diseases. Bulinus globosus and Biomphalaria pfeifferi are the intermediate host snails for human schistosomiasis in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, South Africa.Methods: Using the Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we modelled the current and future distribution of human schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in KZN using two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the year 2085. Thirteen and ten bioclimatic variables from AFRICLIM were used to model the habitat suitability for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi, respectively. The Jack-knife test was used to evaluate the importance of each bioclimatic variable.Results: Mean temperature warmest quarter (BIO10, 37.6%), the number of dry months (dm, 32.6%), mean diurnal range in temperature (BIO2, 10.8%), isothermality (BIO3, 6.7%) were identified as the top four bioclimatic variables with significant contribution to the model for predicting the habitat suitability for B. globosus. Annual moisture index (mi, 34%), mean temperature warmest quarter (BIO10, 21.5%), isothermality (BIO3, 20.5%), and number of dry months (dm, 7%) were identified as the four important variables for the habitat suitability of B. pfeifferi. Area under the curve for the receiving operating characteristics was used to evaluate the performance of the model. The MaxEnt model obtained high AUC values of 0.791 and 0.896 for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi, respectively. Possible changes in the habitat suitability for B. globosus and B. pfeifferi were observed in the maps developed, indicating shrinkage and shifts in the habitat suitability of B. pfeifferi as 65.1% and 59.7% of the current suitable habitats may become unsuitable in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Conversely, an expansion in suitable habitats for B. globosus was predicted to be 32.4% and 69.3% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, with some currently unsuitable habitats becoming suitable in the future.Discussion: These habitat suitability predictions for human schistosomiasis intermediate host snails in KZN can be used as a reference for implementing long-term effective preventive and control strategies for schistosomiasis.
Climate change will affect the distribution of species in the future. To determine the vulnerable areas relating to CL in Iran, we applied two models, MaxEnt and RF, for the projection of the future distribution of the main vectors and reservoirs of CL. The results of the models were compared in terms of performance, species distribution maps, and the gain, loss, and stable areas. The models provided a reasonable estimate of species distribution. The results showed that the Northern and Southern counties of Iran, which currently do not have a high incidence of CL may witness new foci in the future. The Western, and Southwestern regions of the Country, which currently have high habitat suitability for the presence of some vectors and reservoirs, will probably significantly decrease in the future. Furthermore, the most stable areas are for T. indica and M. hurrianae in the future. So that, this species may remain a major reservoir in areas that are present under current conditions. With more local studies in the field of identifying vulnerable areas to CL, it can be suggested that the national CL control guidelines should be revised to include a section as a climate change adaptation plan.
Climate change may influence the incidence of infectious diseases including those transmitted by ticks. Rhipicephalus sanguineus complex has a worldwide distribution and transmits Rickettsial infections that could cause high mortality rates if untreated. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of R. sanguineus in the Americas in 2050 and 2070 using the general circulation model CanESM5 and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP2-8.5 (high emissions). A total of 355 occurrence points of R. sanguineus and eight uncorrelated bioclimatic variables were entered into a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce 50 replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model (>0.90) and the partial ROC value (>1.28) indicated a high predictive capacity. The models showed that the geographic regions currently suitable for R. sanguineus will remain stable in the future, but also predicted increases in habitat suitability in the Western U.S., Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia. Scenario 4.5 showed an increase in habitat suitability for R. sanguineus in tropical and subtropical regions in both 2050 and 2070. Habitat suitability is predicted to remain constant in moist broadleaf forests and deserts but is predicted to decrease in flooded grasslands and savannas. Using the high emissions SSP5-8.5 scenario, habitat suitability in tropical and subtropical coniferous forests and temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands was predicted to be constant in 2050. In 2070, however, habitat suitability was predicted to decrease in tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests and increase in tropical and subtropical dry broadleaf forests. Our findings suggest that the current and potential future geographic distributions can be used in evidence-based strategies in the design of control plans aimed at reducing the risk of exposure to zoonotic diseases transmitted by R. sanguineus.
The mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) is an edible insect distributed across southern Africa. As a culturally important source of food, the mopane worm provides nutrition, livelihoods and improves wellbeing for rural communities across its range. However, this is strong evidence that insect populations are declining worldwide, and climate change is likely to cause many insect species to shift in their distributions. For these reasons, we aimed to model how the ecosystem service benefits of the mopane worm are likely to change in the coming decades. We modelled the distribution of the mopane worm under two contrasting climate change scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Moreover, given that the mopane worm shows strong interactions with other species, particularly trees, we incorporated biotic interactions in our models using a Bayesian network. Our models project significant contraction across the species’ range, with up to 70% decline in habitat by the 2080s. Botswana and Zimbabwe are predicted to be the most severely impacted countries, with almost all habitat in Botswana and Zimbabwe modelled to be lost by the 2080s. Decline of mopane worm habitat would likely have negative implications for the health of people in rural communities due to loss of an important source of protein as well as household income provided by their harvest. Biogeographic shifts therefore have potential to exacerbate food insecurity, socio-economic inequalities, and gender imbalance (women are the main harvesters), with cascading effects that most negatively impact poor rural communities dependent on natural resources.
Lake water has been impaired with nutrients due to the synergic action of human-made activities and climate change. This situation is increasing eutrophication around the globe faster than before, causing water degradation, loss of its uses, and water-associated economic and health effects. Following the Sustainable Development Goal 6, more precisely its target 6.6, nations are already behind schedule in protecting and restoring water-related ecosystems (i.e., rivers and lakes). As concerns with eutrophication are escalating, eutrophic water remediation practices are the keys for restoring those lake waters. Diverse methodologies have been investigated focusing on the nutrient that limit primary productivity (i.e., phosphorus), but few have been applied to in-lake eutrophic water remediation. Thus, the objective of this paper is to provide an overview and critical comments on approaches and practices for facing eutrophic lake water remediation. Information on the successful cases and possible challenges/difficulties in the peer-reviewed literature are presented. This should be useful for supporting further remediation project selection by the stakeholders involved. In summary, for a successful and durable restoration project, external nutrient inputs need to be managed, followed by holistic and region-specific methods to attenuate internal legacy nutrients that are continually released into the water column from the sediment. When aligned well with stakeholder participation and continuous monitoring, these tools are the keys to long-lasting water restoration.
Climate change is contributing to the magnitude, frequency and location of natural hazards, including landslides and landslide-triggered tsunamis. As the costs of protecting against a given risk increase, relocation may become the only feasible option despite the socio-economic, human security and cultural consequences. The relocation of people represents one of the most complex governance challenges generated by climate change. This article contributes to the literature by presenting insights and lessons from two case studies of unprecedented landslide-triggered tsunami risk in recently deglaciated areas that have not previously been described in the relocation literature: the unstable Svinafellsheioi slopes in south-east Iceland, and Karrat and Uummannaq Fjords in north-west Greenland. Our results draw attention to the need for planned relocation to be conducted in-line with international best practices, including those relating to the active involvement of affected people in decision-making, ensuring adequate compensation, and clarifying relocation planning schedules. This has occurred against a backdrop of colonial power dynamics, urbanisation trends, and the rise of tourism in these locations. Based on the findings, we recommend that the role of government pivot from determining risk management and relocation options, to providing a structure to underpin and support community agency.
Population dynamics and climate change are the main challenges for the 21st century, especially in South America. Human populations will increase their exposure to novel climatic conditions in their territories, entangling and complicating health and social problems. We analyze how socioeconomic and climatic future pathways will evolve in South America, a land with high climatic and social heterogeneity. We use the Koppen-Geiger climate classification, population growth, and climate projections for the most likely climate change scenarios for the 2050s based on the CHELSA dataset. We found that tropical and arid climates extend between 4.2%-2.5% and 2.6%-3.9%, replacing temperate climate zones, which will be reduced between 5.3%-4.5% for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. This implies a reduction of the Mediterranean, oceanic and polar climates. Population growth shows a significant relationship to increasing tropical and arid climates extension in almost all countries, meaning a higher exposure to more severe conditions for humans. This work opens up the chance of using possible guidelines to assist environmental management with key background information on expected climate types and population changes and address the potential effects of climate change on human settlements in the near future.
As climate change intensifies, Inuvialuit in Canada’s Western Arctic are facing a rapidly changing environment and associated impacts on human health, safety, and food security. Learning to cope with these changes requires context-based and current information that can inform subsistence activities and environmental management, and no one is better positioned to acquire this information than Inuvialuit themselves. This paper presents findings from in-depth interviews conducted in 2012 with six knowledge holders and seasonal residents of Kendall Island (Ukiivik in Uummarmiutun), a traditional whaling camp situated along the Beaufort Sea coast bordering the Okeevik Tarium Niryutait Marine Protected Area. A transdisciplinary and Inuvialuit-led effort, this research documents observations of change at this culturally important site and explores how residents are adapting to changing conditions. Interview transcripts were analyzed using iterative rounds of qualitative coding in NVivo software. Findings reveal pervasive social and environmental change on Kendall Island and in adjacent harvesting areas and highlight how changing conditions are affecting residents’ lives. This study identifies benchmarks upon which to compare and evaluate subsequent changes at this site and documents Inuvialuit knowledge and perspectives that can inform local-scale environmental monitoring, management, and climate change adaptation planning.
Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox is an increasing concern globally, with over 80,000 cases in non-endemic countries as of December 2022. In this review, we provide a brief history and ecology of mpox, its basic virology, and the key differences in mpox viral fitness traits before and after 2022. We summarize and critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host models, and between-host transmission models using the One Health approach, where we distinguish between models that focus on immunity from vaccination, geography, climatic variables, as well as animal models. We report various epidemiological parameters, such as the reproduction number, R(0), in a condensed format to facilitate comparison between studies. We focus on how mathematical modelling studies have led to novel mechanistic insight into mpox transmission and pathogenesis. As mpox is predicted to lead to further infection peaks in many historically non-endemic countries, mathematical modelling studies of mpox can provide rapid actionable insights into viral dynamics to guide public health measures and mitigation strategies.
Bat-borne pathogens are a threat to global health and in recent history have had major impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Examples include diseases such as rabies, Nipah virus encephalitis, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Climate change may exacerbate the emergence of bat-borne pathogens by affecting the ecology of bats in tropical ecosystems. Here, we report the impacts of climate change on the distributional ecology of the common vampire bat Desmodus rotundus across the last century. Our retrospective analysis revealed a positive relationship between changes in climate and the northern expansion of the distribution of D. rotundus in North America. Furthermore, we also found a reduction in the standard deviation of temperatures at D. rotundus capture locations during the last century, expressed as more consistent, less-seasonal climate in recent years. These results elucidate an association between D. rotundus range expansion and a continental-level rise in rabies virus spillover transmission from D. rotundus to cattle in the last 50 years of the 120-year study period. This correlative study, based on field observations, offers empirical evidence supporting previous statistical and mathematical simulation-based studies reporting a likely increase of bat-borne diseases in response to climate change. We conclude that the D. rotundus rabies system exemplifies the consequences of climate change augmentation at the wildlife-livestock-human interface, demonstrating how global change acts upon these complex and interconnected systems to drive increased disease emergence.
Along with the numerous benefits for human health, seafood may pose various health risks. These potential hazards may be of anthropogenic origin as well as natural. Pathogenic bacteria, viruses, organic and inorganic pollutants, microplastics, parasites, shellfish poisonings, ciguatera, tetrodotoxin, histamine, or seafood allergy may threat consumer health. Evaluating the possible sources of these hazards and conditions is necessary to provide healthy and safe seafood to the consumer. Increased awareness of consumers on sustainability, food safety, origin and availability will greatly affect consumption trends. Therefore, this review presents a future perspective for seafood consumption. Antibiotic resistance and the effect of climate change on fish consumption, the recent critical problems of the seafood industry, were also discussed. This review gives current information on the potential hazards of seafood and provides a perspective for future trends in fish consumption. The seafood processing sector should consider these potential risks and adapt to changing consumer preferences.
The One Health concept was initiated to promote the integration of human, animal, and environmental ecosystems into healthcare to ensure effective control and the sustainable governance of multifaceted health matters. Climate change, deforestation, and rigorous farming disrupt the environment, which serves as the natural habitat for many animals and microbes, increasing the likelihood of disease transmission between humans and animals. Melioidosis (neglected tropical diseases) and glanders are of humans and animals caused by the gram-negative bacteria Burkholderia pseudomallei and its close relative Burkholderia mallei, respectively. In Malaysia, although melioidosis is endemic, it is not a notifiable disease. Hence, the true prevalence of melioidosis in Malaysia is unknown and varies in different regions of the country, with reported hotspots associated with agriculture-related activities. To date, no incidence of human glanders has been reported in Malaysia, although occupational exposure for equine handlers and veterinary professionals remains a concern. Additionally, antibiotics are widely used in the healthcare and veterinary sectors to treat or prevent B. pseudomallei and B. mallei infections, leading to the emergence of resistance in B. pseudomallei. Lack of surveillance, research, assessment, and management of glanders and melioidosis is a major issue in Malaysia. Proper assessment systems and cross-discipline cooperation are vital to recognize and manage both diseases. Experts and practitioners from clinical and veterinary disciplines, environmentalists, law enforcement, policymakers, researchers, local communities, and other experts need to communicate, collaborate, and coordinate activities to fill the knowledge gap on glanders and melioidosis to reduce morbidity and mortality rates in the country. This review aims to define the organizational and functional characteristics of One Health surveillance approaches for glanders and melioidosis from a Malaysian perspective.
