2016
Author(s): Trajer A, Hammer T
The potential resurgence of malaria in the temperate areas of Europe due to climate change is an actual topic of epidemiology. Although several ecological forecasting models were built for the prediction of the potential re-emergence of malaria in the recently non-endemic areas of the world, the simulations are mainly based on the recent climatic thresholds of the tropical and subtropical vectors and Plasmodium parasites, mainly of Plasmodium falciparum. We aimed to reanalyze the primarily Plasmodium vivax caused autochthon malaria disease data of the past model period of 1927-1934 in Hungary to gain reliable knowledge about the climatic thresholds and the determinants of the malaria season for a temperate climate in a Central European country. Multivariable and simple linear correlation and regression was performed to analyze the malaria data of 96 months dividing the season a first and a second half parts of the year. Two models were built on the gained correlations using unstandardized and standardized correlation weights. It was found, that both in the first and second halves of the year, the ambient mean temperature was the most important predictor of the relative malaria incidence, while precipitation influenced the first half of the season. Summer sum of precipitation above 200 mm was found as one of the most important determinant of the absolute annual case number of benign tertian malaria. The unstandardized weights-based modeled malaria seasons returned well the observed autochthon malaria seasons.
Journal: Idojaras