2020

Author(s): Hertig E

Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O-3max) and daily maximum air temperature (T-max) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O-3max and T-max as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first century. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions, a substantial increase of T-max in the months from April to September arose, with a mean value of 5 K in the period 2081-2100 compared with the historical period 1986-2005. Statistical downscaling projections pointed to a mean O-3max rise of 17 mu g/m(3). The frequency of threshold exceedances showed also large changes. Hot days may occur in the future at about 30% of all days. Exceedances of O-3max > 100 mu g/m(3) were projected to increase to about 40% of all days at urban traffic sites and up to about 70% in the rural regional background. Days with O-3max > 120 mu g/m(3) occurred still at about 20% of all days at urban traffic sites and at about 45% in rural regional background locations. With respect to combined T-max > 30 degrees C and O-3max > 100 mu g/m(3) events in the future, an occurrence of such events at about 27-29% of all days in the summer months from April to September was assessed. The increases were mainly associated with the strong temperature rise until the end of the century. In summary, the projected T-max and O-3max changes point to a considerable increased health burden in Bavaria until the end of the century, resulting from strong changes of both variables and their associated individual and combined impact on human health.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11869-020-00811-z