2023

Author(s): Srivastava S, Dubey S

The Asian summer monsoon impacts the human lives and agrarian economies throughout Asia. These impacts are driven by monsoon anomalies which are manifested in terms of the seasonal precipitation, surface temperatures and the occurrences of floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. A strong monsoon results in various positive outcomes like increased agricultural produce, economic growth, reduced commodity prices and national inflationary levels as well as increased ground water and restored reservoirs. While predicting the Asian summer monsoon has been prioritized by decision-makers across sectors in Asia, impact forecasting must gain greater significance as it is particularly important to tackle disaster risks. The paradigm shifts from 'what monsoon will be to what monsoon will do provides valuable insights to better prepare Asian countries for managing impending extreme events. The paper brings out how impact outlook for Asian monsoon can be effectively utilized. It shows how seasonal forecasts overlaid with risk and hazards maps and indicators on exposure and vulnerability can enhance understanding of potential risk scenarios for various sectors, including agriculture, energy, health, water, and disaster management. Noting the limitations of accuracy and information available from seasonal forecasts, the information provided from impact outlook should be understood as preliminary assessments. The paper makes a case for seamless integration of seasonal, sub-seasonal, medium, and short terms forecasts with the data on potential impact. This is aimed at enabling close monitoring and targeted policy actions.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v74i2.6010