Kenya is vulnerable to drought due to its overdependence on rainfall as a source of water for the socioeconomic well-being of the population. In Kenya, drought episodes commonly lead to limited water availability, food production and pasture for livestock. In protracted droughts, the primary effects are evolving into secondary impacts on people, such as malnutrition. For the past five consecutive major rainfall seasons, since October to December (OND) 2020, each of the March to May (MAM) and OND seasons have provided limited rains to support agricultural production and to recharge water resources, particularly in the arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) areas that constitute 70% of Kenya. About 2.7 million people were reported to be facing food insecurity in 2021. This number increased by 10% in early 2022 and was projected to double later in 2022, due to the coupled effect of the evolving drought and high food prices associated with the war in Ukraine. The anticipated impacts of these worsening statistics on people include acute malnutrition, limited food options and lack of clean water for animal and human consumption.

Since 2019, humanitarian actors have been developing anticipatory action (AA) approaches based on climate information and vulnerability indicators. Droughts from limited rainfall, such as the one observed in 2021–2022 period, can be reliably forecasted. In an AA approach, such meteorological drought forecasts can be overlaid with data on water demand for agricultural production and recharge of water sources, on livelihoods dependent on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, and on food security status from assessment. The forecast models currently used have increased in forecasting skill, and this has been coupled with extensive drought assessments and information sharing. Thus, scientists can better quantify the health risks of forecasted droughts. Therefore, objective criteria have been developed showing when to act in anticipation of drought, by combining climate forecasts with information about vulnerability on the ground and identifying areas with a high risk of humanitarian crisis arising from drought. Further, donors are creating funding streams such as Forecast-based Action (FbA) by the Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). The FbA by the DREF funds anticipatory actions for climate extremes whose anticipated impacts matches or exceeds a 1-in-5-year return period. The fund is accessible to national societies such as Kenya Red Cross Society through an Early Action Protocol (EAP).

Kenya Red Cross Society implemented AAs in October 2021 following the release of national forecasts that indicated enhanced chance of a 1-in-5-year drought over the semi-arid parts of Kenya. In the intervention, the Society rehabilitated up to 8 boreholes to provide clean water, distributed droughtresistant seeds to farmers, distributed pasture seeds to pastoralists and carried out awareness-raising on climatesmart agricultural practices, water source management, water sanitation and hygiene. A survey conducted in September 2022 indicated that all the rehabilitated water facilities remained functional after the failed OND 2021 rainfall season and throughout the subsequent dry months, despite the increased dependence on them as a source of clean and cheaper water for household use, while drought impacts started peaking. The affected populations are benefiting from reduced need for repair and maintenance of the solarized water boreholes. Interviews with community members who were recipients of awareness-raising on best agricultural practices indicated that they made use of the rainwater for production of droughtresistant crops and livestock pasture from a season whose rainfall was limited. Monitoring reports indicated that the food consumption score for seed distribution improved from 38% to 65%, implying a significant increase in diversity of food options and sustained higher nutritional value among these beneficiaries. The benefits of the interventions reduce the chances of malnutrition and waterborne and foodborne diseases among beneficiaries both in the short- and long-term.

The beneficiaries indicated that at the time of distribution of the seeds they were observing local traditional indicators showing a chance of a dry spell early in the seasons, which was eventually observed. They made reference to interpretation of goat intestines by local forecasters. Consequently, most non-beneficiaries who were interviewed failed to implement drought anticipatory actions. In this case, the communities demonstrated a strong belief in their local knowledge. This provides an opportunity to use local knowledge and an AA approach should be flexible to accommodate this. As such, an arrangement had been made for the local forecasters to interpret forecasts for the season from goat intestines and compare them with scientific forecasts prior to the implementation of the anticipatory actions with the communities. Some farmers suffered from failed crop harvest having planted late. There is need to scale up awareness-raising on the need to plant within timing of the rains, as the dry spell that followed the onset was anticipated from the seasonal forecast.

An impact analysis found that the combination of water provision and planting of drought-resistant seeds nearly doubled the food consumption score of beneficiaries and reduced negative coping strategies.