2010

Author(s): Herrera-Martinez AD, Rodriguez-Morales AJ

Climate change and variability is affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability. In this study we assess potential associations between macroclimatic variation and dengue cases in a western pediatric hospital of Venezuela in an eight-year period. Between 2001 and 2008, 7,523 cases of dengue were reported in the Hospital Agustin Zubillaga, Barquisimeto, Venezuela. Climatic periods marked a difference of 23.15% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Nino weeks (-14.16% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Nina months (+8.99% of cases above it) (pEuro Surveillance (Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles; European Communicable Disease Bulletin)0.0001). Linear regression showed significantly higher dengue incidence with lower values of Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) (El Nino periods) and lower dengue incidence with higher values of ONI (La Nina periods) (pEuro Surveillance (Bulletin Europeen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles; European Communicable Disease Bulletin)0.0002). As has been shown herein, climate variability is an important element influencing the dengue epidemiology in Venezuela. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well for prediction of dengue.

Journal: Tropical Biomedicine