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WHO/UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile
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WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2022

National Context

Country Background

Located in the North Atlantic, Iceland has a land area of 103 000 km2 and a coastline of 4970 km; rivers and lakes cover 6% of the territory and freshwater sources are abundant (1). Iceland’s economy is characterized by high income levels and its large marine and energy sectors (2). Iceland’s population is growing; whilst over 60% of the population lives in the capital city of Reykjavík, Iceland is one of the least densely populated countries in Europe (1).

Iceland’s climate is warmer than expected at this latitude, as it is influenced by the Gulf Stream (1,3).
Iceland has experienced rising temperatures since the 1980s and changing precipitation intensity, leading to impacts on marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fish stocks and changes in glacier runoff. Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events is expected to be the biggest risk for human health in Iceland (1).

Iceland has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), enhancing its commitment to at least 55% net greenhouse gas emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990, to be achieved by acting jointly with the European Union and its Member States and Norway (4). In 2021, the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources published a white paper and a strategy on climate change (5,6).

Highest Priority Climate Sensitive Health Risks

Health risks iceland

Current and Future Climate Hazards

Climate Hazard Projections for Iceland

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5).

The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green).a The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figuresb also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).c In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of geographically small countries are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for some locations.

Rising temperatures
Figure 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900–2100

Rising temperatures

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 3.9°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.3°C.

total precipitation
Figure 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900–2100

Small increase in total precipitation

Total annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 5% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-2% to +14%). If emissions decrease rapidly, ,there is little projected change on average, with an uncertainty range of -5% to +8%.

temperature extremes
Figure 3: Percentage of hot days (‘heat stress’), 1900–2100

More high temperature extremes

The percentage of hot daysd is projected to increase from about 15% of all days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990). Under a high emissions scenario, about 50% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 25% of days on average are ‘hot’. Similar increases are seen in hot nightsd (not shown).

rainfall
Figure 4: Contribution of very wet days (‘extreme rainfall’ and ‘flood risk’) to total annual rainfall, 1900–2100

Increase in extreme rainfall

Under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet dayse (about 20% for 1981–2010) could increase by the end-of-century (to about 30% on average with an uncertainty range of about 20% to 35%), with little change if emissions decrease rapidly. These projected changes are accompanied by a small increase in total annual rainfall under a high emissions scenario (see Figure 2).

drought
Figure 5: Standardized Precipitation Index (‘drought’), 1900–2100

Drought frequency and intensity

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12). It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

Under a high emissions scenario, SPI12 values are projected to increase from about 0.4 to 1 on average by the end of the century (2071–2100) indicating an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of wet events. If emissions decrease rapidly, there is less change. Year-to-year variability remains large with some dry episodes continuing to occur into the future.f

Health Risks Due to Climate Change

Health in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Health in the NDCs

  • Ambitious national climate action can have significant health benefits.
  • NDCs can be strengthened by considering health protection and health promotion.
  • National reporting to the UNFCCC and negotiations provide opportunities to link climate and health action.

Health co-benefits of mitigation in NDCs

Health adaptation in NDCs

Implementation for health in NDCs

Total 2019 emissions

13 794.4 kt CO2 equivalent with LULUCF emissions (16)

NDC target

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, compared with the 1990 levels; this is a common goal with the European Union, its Member States and Norway (4)

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey.

Governance and Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? YES
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? YES
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? NO
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget NO
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

 

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Evidence and Implementation

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? NO
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change N/A
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change N/A
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

 

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 YES YES
Vector-borne diseases 22121 YES YES
Foodborne diseases 22131 YES YES
Waterborne diseases 22141 YES YES
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 YES
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 YES YES
Mental health and well-being 22171 YES YES
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

 

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 YES YES YES
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 YES YES YES
Flooding 23141 YES YES YES
Drought 23161 YES YES YES
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171 YES YES YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Capacity, Infrastructure and Sustainability

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? NO
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? Limited
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? Partially
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector? NO
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)

Opportunities for Action

1. DEVELOP A HEALTH NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (HNAP) FOR ICELAND

Iceland does not have a national health and climate change plan/strategy or Health National Adaptation Plan (HNAP) in place. Develop an HNAP, led by the Ministry of Health, as part of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HNAP is an integrated part of the overall climate change process and can support the mobilization of resources and prioritization of health and climate change policies. See “WHO resources for action” for further details.

2. STRENGTHEN MULTISECTORAL COLLABORATION ON HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE

There are no multisectoral agreements in place on climate change and health. Enhance collaboration between health and health-determining sectors with agreements on climate change and health action (e.g. with transport, energy, water and sanitation, national meteorological and hydrological services sectors, etc.). Promote climate mitigation and adaptation policies that protect and promote health and strengthen health systems.

3. CONDUCT A CLIMATE CHANGE AND HEALTH VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

Iceland has not conducted a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment.
Assess Iceland’s vulnerability to climate-related health risks. Information gathered through iterative climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessments can be used to inform the development of health adaptation policies and plans as well as national climate change reporting mechanisms (e.g. Nationally Determined Contributions [NDCs], National Communications [NCs], National Adaptation Plans [NAPs]). See “WHO resources for action” for further details.

4. ASSESS THE HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF NATIONAL CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICIES

Health co-benefits of mitigation are currently not included in Iceland’s NDC. Ensure that climate mitigation policies include the health risks posed from climate change, identify health adaptation priorities and measure and optimize the health co-benefits of climate mitigation action.

5. BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE HEALTH CARE FACILITIES

Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health care facilities and health service provision while decreasing the climate and environmental footprint of health care facilities. A commitment towards climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable health care facilities can improve system stability, promote a healing environment and mitigate climate change impacts.

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PUBLICATION

Zero regrets: scaling up action on climate change mitigation and adaptation for health in the WHO European Region, second edition. Key messages from the Working Group on Health in Climate Change

Без сожалений. Расширение масштабов деятельности по смягчению последствий изменения климата и адаптации к ним в целях охраны здоровья в Европейском регионе ВОЗ, второе издание. Основные тезисы Рабочей группы по изменению климата и его влиянию на здоровье

EN, RU

World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe, 2023

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