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WHO/UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile
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WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2022

National Context

Country Background

Located in the southwest of Asia, Iran (Islamic Republic of) is the sixteenth largest country in the world with an area of over 1.6 million km2 (1). The economy of Iran (Islamic Republic of) predominantly depends on petroleum and natural gas exports and is amongst the 20 largest economies in the world (2). Iranians are mostly concentrated in urban areas, with an urban population of over 70% due to migration from rural areas to cities (1).

The climate is mainly arid and semi-arid; however, it varies throughout the national territory encompassing mountainous, dry, semi-dry and Caspian climates. Iran is amongst the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to its geographic, economic and climatic characteristics (3). For instance, a large area of the country is susceptible to floods, while changing trends in precipitation have also led to droughts and forest fires (1). Iran (Islamic Republic of) is also vulnerable to sand and dust storms, due to its arid and semi-arid climate, a phenomenon that causes adverse impacts on human health as a result of poor air quality (4).

The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Iran (Islamic Republic of) seeks to mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions by 4% in 2030 through increasing the share of renewable energies, including by participating in national and international market-based mechanisms, and employing low-carbon fuels. The adaptation actions of Iran (Islamic Republic of) are subjected to international funding and technology transfer (3). The government of Iran (Islamic Republic of) has also published its National Health and Climate Change Strategy, which aims to improve health system resilience to climate change. Specific targets in this strategy include: conducting a vulnerability assessment against climate change effects in the health sector; building capacity and planning adaptation development in the health sector; promoting knowledge and awareness of climate-related health issues; climate and health research and development; and maximizing the benefits from regional and international cooperation (5).

Current and Future Climate Hazards

Climate Hazard Projections for Iran

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5).

The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green).a The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figuresb also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).c In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of geographically small countries are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for some locations.

Figure 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900–2100

Rising temperature

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 5.2°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.5°C.

Figure 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900–2100

Little change in total precipitation

Total annual precipitation is projected to remain almost unchanged on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-24% to +21%). If emissions decrease rapidly, there is a projected change of -5% to +15%.

Figure 3: Percentage of hot days (‘heat stress’), 1900–2100

More high temperature extremes

The percentage of hot daysd is projected to increase substantially from about 15% of all days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990).
Under a high emissions scenario, about 65% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 30% of days on average are ‘hot’. Similar increases are seen in hot nightsd (not shown).

Figure 4: Contribution of very wet days (‘extreme rainfall’ and ‘flood risk’) to total annual rainfall, 1900–2100

Increase in extreme rainfall

Under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet dayse (about 20% for 1981–2010) could increase by the end-of-century (to about 30% on average with an uncertainty range of about 20% to 40%), with less change if emissions decrease rapidly. These projected changes are accompanied by little change in total annual rainfall (see Figure 2).

Figure 5: Standardized Precipitation Index (‘drought’), 1900–2100

Drought frequency and intensity

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).f It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

SPI12 values show little projected change from about zero on average, though year-to-year variability remains large. A few models indicate larger decreases (more frequent/intense drought events) or increases (more frequent/intense wet events).

Health Risks Due to Climate Change

Health in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Health in the NDCs

  • Ambitious national climate action can have significant health benefits.
  • NDCs can be strengthened by considering health protection and health promotion.
  • National reporting to the UNFCCC and negotiations provide opportunities to link climate and health action.

Health co-benefits of mitigation in NDCs

Health adaptation in NDCs

Implementation for health in NDCs

Total 2000 emissions

492 954.7 Gg CO2 equivalent (16)

NDC target

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 4% by 2030 compared with the BAU trajectory (3)

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey.

Governance and Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? Under Development
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? N/A
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? N/A
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget N/A
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? N/A
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

 

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation Unknown
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation Unknown
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy Unknown
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture Unknown
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services Unknown
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management Unknown
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Evidence and Implementation

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? YES
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change MINIMAL
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change NO
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

 

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 YES YES
Vector-borne diseases 22121 Unknown Unknown
Foodborne diseases 22131 Unknown Unknown
Waterborne diseases 22141 Unknown Unknown
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 Unknown
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 YES YES
Mental health and well-being 22171 Unknown Unknown
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

 

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 NO NO NO
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 YES NO NO
Flooding 23141 YES NO NO
Drought 23161 NO NO NO
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171 YES YES NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Capacity, Infrastructure and Sustainability

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? Under development
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? Unknown
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? NO
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? Unknown
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector? NO
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)

Opportunities for Action

1. STRENGTHEN IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE PLAN/STRATEGY OF IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF)

Implementation of the health and climate change plan/strategy in Iran (Islamic Republic of) is reported to be in the planning phase. Assess barriers to implementation of the plan/strategy (e.g. governance, evidence, monitoring and evaluation, finance). Implementation can be supported by exploring additional opportunities to access funds for health and climate change priorities (e.g. GCF readiness proposal). See “WHO resources for action” for further details.

2. STRENGTHEN MULTISECTORAL COLLABORATION ON HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE

There are some multisectoral agreements in place on climate change and health. Enhance collaboration between health and health-determining sectors with agreements on climate change and health action (e.g. with transport, energy, water and sanitation, national meteorological and hydrological services sectors, etc.). Promote climate mitigation and adaptation policies that protect and promote health and strengthen health systems.

3. ASSESS THE HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF NATIONAL CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICIES

Health co-benefits of mitigation are currently not included in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Iran (Islamic Republic of). Ensure that climate mitigation policies include the health risks posed from climate change, identify health adaptation priorities and measure and optimize the health co-benefits of climate mitigation action.

4. BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE HEALTH CARE FACILITIES

Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health care facilities and health service provision while decreasing the climate and environmental footprint of health care facilities. A commitment towards climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable health care facilities can improve system stability, promote a healing environment and mitigate climate change impacts.

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