Small island developing states (SIDS) are often at the forefront of climate change impacts, including those related to health, but information on mental health and wellbeing is typically underreported. To help address this research lacuna, this paper reviews research about mental health and wellbeing under climate change in SIDS. Due to major differences in the literature’s methodologies, results, and analyses, the method is an overview and qualitative evidence synthesis of peer-reviewed publications. The findings show that mental health and wellbeing in the context of climate change have yet to feature prominently and systematically in research covering SIDS. It seems likely that major adverse mental health and wellbeing impacts linked to climate change impacts will affect SIDS peoples. Similar outcomes might also emerge when discussing climate change related situations, scenarios, and responses, irrespective of what has actually happened thus far due to climate change. In the context of inadequate health systems and stigmatisation of mental health diagnoses and treatments, as tends to occur globally, climate change narratives might present an opening for conversations about addressing mental health and wellbeing issues for SIDS.
The health risks of a changing climate are immediate and multifaceted. Policies, plans, and programs to reduce climate-related health impacts exist, but multiple barriers hinder the uptake of these strategies, and information remains limited on the factors affecting implementation. Implementation science-a discipline focused on systematically examining the gap between knowledge and action-can address questions related to implementation and help the health sector scale up successful adaptation measures in response to climate change. Implementation science, in the context of a changing climate, can guide decision makers in introducing and prioritizing potential health adaptation and disaster risk management solutions, advancing sustainability initiatives, and evaluating and improving intervention strategies. In this article we highlight examples from Pacific Island countries and outline approaches based on implementation science to enhance the capacity of health systems to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related exposures.
As climate change alters the behavior of Atlantic hurricanes, these storms are trending stronger, wetter, and slower moving over coastal and island populations. Hurricane Dorian exemplified all three attributes. Dorian’s destructive passage over the Abaco Islands, Bahamas, on September 1, 2019, exposed residents of its capital, Marsh Harbour, to a prolonged encounter with the storm’s core. After Dorian’s fierce front eyewall and towering storm surge tore apart shanty town habitats and eviscerated concrete homesites, residents desperately sought refuge during the brief respite when Dorian’s eye passed directly overhead. The category 5 winds then resumed abruptly and Dorian continued its relentless destruction. This article focuses on the storm’s mental health consequences, drawing on observations of on-site clinicians as well as findings from previous research on the mental health effects of Atlantic hurricanes and the transformation of hurricane hazards resulting from climate change. To protect island and coastal populations against climate-driven storms, disaster planning policy should emphasize resilience-focused prevention and mitigation strategies. In the aftermath of these events, health system response should include community outreach, case finding, and evidence-based interventions that optimize the use of mental health professionals.
The United Nations’ invocation of ‘human security’ a generation ago promised a world increasingly governed by a ‘people-centred’ security agenda. In this paper we focus on arguably the most vital global security challenge faced throughout the planet today: climate resilience. We outline how advancing smart climate action and securing climate resilience can be aided by securitization practices that recall the earlier emphases of the United Nations’ human security concept. The paper draws upon evidence from the Caribbean as a territory defined dominantly as part of the Global South, yet offering vital knowledge of productive climate security governance that can be instructive to the Global North. The impacts of global warming are particularly evident for the people of small island developing states such as those located in the Caribbean. By analysing the case of Cuba as a country increasingly resilient to extreme weather events, and by interrogating the genealogy of the broader Caribbean’s hurricane culture, we show how an effective human security vision for climate justice and resilience can be achieved by recognizing and integrating the valuable forms of locally attuned knowledge that continue to emerge and coalesce in vulnerable geographies.
Extreme weather events in the Caribbean region are becoming increasingly severe because of climate change. The region also has high rates of poorly controlled chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which were responsible for at least 30 percent of deaths after two recent hurricanes. We conducted a scoping review of literature published between 1974 and 2020 to understand the burden and management of chronic NCDs in the Caribbean after natural disasters. Of the twenty-nine articles included in this review, most described experiences related to Hurricanes Dorian (2019) and Irma and Maria (2017) and the Haiti earthquake (2010). Challenges included access to medication, acute care services, and appropriate food, as well as communication difficulties and reliance on ad hoc volunteers and outside aid. Mitigating these challenges requires different approaches, including makeshift points of medication dispensing, disease surveillance systems, and chronic disease self-management education programs. Evidence is needed to inform policies to build resilient health systems and integrate NCD management into regional and national disaster preparedness and response plans.
In this literature review, we analyze existing research on climate change and its impact on mental health and well-being, primarily among Pacific Islanders. To compensate for a lack of research in this area, we also address some of the projected mental health implications resulting from disasters linked to climate change, such as flooding, hurricanes, and cyclones. This broader scope enables the identification of areas where more research into mental health concerns related to climate change in the Pacific is needed. In closing, we provide recommendations for further research into the mental health and well-being of Pacific peoples and suggest ways to develop resilience to the effects of climate change.
Climate change will necessitate evermore frequent and complex managed retreats in the future, and drafting policies that are equitable and just for those residents who are relocating will be essential. The USA’s first federally funded, community-scale, climate-driven resettlement is currently underway in coastal Louisiana. In January 2016, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) awarded the state of Louisiana $48.3 million to plan, design, and implement a structured, just, and scalable resettlement with former and current Isle de Jean Charles residents. Most Island households are multi-generational and directly descended from Jean Marie Naquin, after whose father the Island is named. Using interviews, ethnographic data, and policy documents, this paper will delineate and analyze the dimensions of sense of place, which, in this case, prompted policy changes dramatically different from standard relocation policies: assurance that the properties and land from which residents are departing will remain in their possession as long as the land remains. For most Island residents, this was non-negotiable. The intangible connection to place-feelings of belonging, lifestyle, family connections, and culture-plays a central role in many families’ decision to stay or go. The choice to relocate is rooted in this complex entanglement of identity, familial ties, land loss, historical and current marginalization, and a way of life passed on by multiple generations. In forthcoming community resettlements, continued access and ownership of the properties being left behind should be considered as a critical component for planning just retreats.
Desert dust transported from the Saharan-Sahel region to the Caribbean Sea is responsible for peak exposures of particulate matter (PM). This study explored the potential added value of satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements, compared to the PM concentration at ground level, to retrospectively assess exposure during pregnancy. MAIAC MODIS AOT retrievals in blue band (AOT(470)) were extracted for the French Guadeloupe archipelago. AOT(470) values and PM(10) concentrations were averaged over pregnancy for 906 women (2005-2008). Regression modeling was used to examine the AOT(470)-PM(10) relationship during pregnancy and test the association between dust exposure estimates and preterm birth. Moderate agreement was shown between mean AOT(470) retrievals and PM(10) ground-based measurements during pregnancy (R(2)?=?0.289). The magnitude of the association between desert dust exposure and preterm birth tended to be lower using the satellite method compared to the monitor method. The latter remains an acceptable trade-off between epidemiological relevance and exposure misclassification, in areas with few monitoring stations and complex topographical/meteorological conditions, such as tropical islands.
Coastal floods are the most prominent natural disaster causing severe damages to the local communities regarding food security, economy and shelter. Risks can be defined by physiographical sensitivity and vulnerability associated with socio-economic, demographic and infrastructure aspects of the region. Population with poor socio-economic status and high dependence on natural resources for livelihood in coastal dwellings of rural India are extremely vulnerable to flood hazards. Policy formulation to reduce coastal flood risks necessitates quantifying hazard vulnerability at an administrative scale. In this context, we propose a method for evaluating the coastal flood risk of an island located in the habited part of Sundarbans, West Bengal. Extending up to 282 sq. km, Sagar Island has been a keystone in harbouring and supporting both local and migrant population since the 1880s. Land-use classification of the island indicates an increase of 1.7% to 3.6% in the built-up class, almost double in the past eight years (2012-2020). A considerable rise in area under the water bodies is also seen from 6.6 to 8.6%, signifying fair evidence of a coastal breach. Flood risk assessment of Sagar Island was carried out using high spatial resolution data from Indian remote sensing satellites and census data. This assessment was performed by modifying the established MCDA technique considering the data limitations and accounting accessibility to infrastructure as a novel variable to a multi-dimensional framework. The framework maps spatial vulnerability of the region using sub-factors such as socio-demographic, economic, infrastructure and accessibility. The exposure profile of the area is drawn with the help of topographic factors and classified land-use results. Literature evidence was used to develop classification rules for data standardization from very high to very low based on their flood sensitivity. Further, the factors and sub-factors were ranked using AHP by a panel of experts belonging to diverse fields such as disaster management, regional planning, environment, hydrology and social science. The weighted sum technique was used to quantify total vulnerability and exposure parameters, respectively. The total risk map generated is the product of the hazard and vulnerability map of the region. The findings reveal the dominance of economic and accessibility parameters in defining the vulnerability of the regional population towards coastal flood risks. Proximity to coastline and tidal creeks enhances disaster sensitivity due to frequent inundation, erosion, saltwater intrusion and complete submergence of land area. Water bodies engulfing the coastline emerge as a serious threat to sustenance given the present rate of submergence of about 6 m/year. The research highlights the pressing need for grassroots development through social and economic upliftment. It also advocates the undeniable need for proactive adaptation such as flood resilient housing and coastline protection by stabilizing sandbars and planting/nurturing/maintaining native species (mangroves).
Natural disasters have negative health impacts on patients who need dialysis in affected areas. Severely affected areas are usually rural, with limited basic infrastructure and a population without optimal dialysis-specific care after a disaster. A population-based longitudinal case-cohort study enrolled 715,244 adults from the National Health Insurance Registry who lived in areas affected by a major natural disaster, Typhoon Morakot, in 2009. The observation period was from 2008 to 2011. A total of 13,268 patients (1.85%) had a history of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Of the ESRD patients, 1264 patients (9.5%) received regular dialysis. Only eight patients missed dialysis sessions in the first month after the disaster. Compared to the moderately affected areas, the incidences of acute cerebrovascular and cardiovascular diseases were higher in patients in severely affected areas. Male dialysis patients aged 45-75 years had a higher mortality rate than that of the general population. Among the affected adults receiving regular dialysis, patients with diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.08) or a history of cerebrovascular disease (aHR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.12-2.21), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma (aHR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.24-3.17) in moderately affected areas had significantly elevated mortality rates. Additionally, among dialysis patients living in severely affected areas, those with a history of cerebrovascular disease (aHR: 4.52 95% CI: 2.28-8.79) had an elevated mortality rate. Early evacuation plans and high-quality, accessible care for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are essential to support affected populations before and after disasters to improve dialysis patients’ health outcomes.
This paper uses a holistic approach within a catchment scale, through the application of both climatic and non-climatic parameters, to analyze the impacts of river floods on the human security needs of rural riverine communities in the Waimanu Catchment situated in Nausori, Fiji. Consideration of both climatic and non-climatic factors is required since non-climatic factors could be controlled to build resilience against floods. The indicator-based flood vulnerability index methodology is applicable worldwide, but the indicators used in this study were specifically related to the Pacific Island context. In the context of fluvial flood vulnerability, effects of land management and climate change are not mutually exclusive of each other. Consequently, vulnerability assessments should consider the connection between people’s actions and ecosystems for the entire catchment area since upstream land use practices influence flood vulnerabilities downstream. In our research, a community-based flood vulnerability index system in conjunction with rainfall variability and land use assessments was used to quantitatively and qualitatively analyze the flood vulnerability, and it was found that increased rainfall, poor agricultural practices, gravel extraction, and improper waste management predominantly increased the exposure and sensitivity of midstream and downstream communities to river floods by modifying river morphology. Midstream communities in the Waimanu Catchment were most vulnerable to river floods due to their very low adaptive capacity in terms of poor ecosystem health and lack of natural resources to cope with the subsequent impacts of floods, being most sensitive to changes in land use and land cover.
Health risks from climate change are increasing and becoming a critical global concern. Implementation of health adaptation policies is vital, particularly in settings with high socioeconomic vulnerability and physical exposure to climate-risks, such as the Philippines. We identified from the literature a set of reference principles and categories of barriers to the implementation of national health adaptation policy. These were then used to assess the extent to which these policy principles and barriers are evident in Philippine national health adaptation. This assessment was undertaken based on data and information from policy analysis, key informant interviews, and an expert workshop. The results suggest that the Philippines have made notable progress on health adaptation by establishing a strong policy framework. However, implementation remains challenging and requires continued commitment. The health adaptation policy principles identified in the Philippines are policy congruence, mainstreaming, multi-sectoral approach, multiscale approach, adaptive management, and evidence-based decision-making. The most important implementation barriers are uncertain leadership, appropriateness and longevity of the governance structures within the Department of Health, and data and evidence. The value of considering policy principles alongside implementation barriers is twofold. First, this enables understanding of how implementation barriers relate directly to policy principles. Second, it facilitates identification of future implementation barriers that may arise in relation to current policy principles. Multi-sectoral governance and the integration of evidence in decision-making arose as potential future challenges in the Philippines. These areas may require special consideration in future policy design and planning.
Over recent decades, substantial funding from a variety of sources has been directed towards climate change adaptation projects in Pacific Island countries. There remains, however, considerable uncertainty about which factors influence adaptation project completion, as a pre-cursor to effective adaptation. In this study, we empirically establish the links between project attributes (duration, funding, cash co-financing, in-kind contributions, location, and adaptation approach) and whether a project is likely to complete or be terminated. We examine this issue by developing a logistic regression model to predict the probability of completion for small-scale climate change adaptation projects using a new dataset of 190 projects in the South Pacific (with end dates ranging from November 1995 to May 2016) that were financed through the Global Environment Facility Small Grants Programme. Empirical results suggest that all else equal, such a project was more likely to complete if it was shorter, received more co-financing cash input and in-kind support from other donors and project partners, was explicitly targeted towards climate change adaptation, focused on a single adaptation approach, and was undertaken in Micronesia or Fiji. Our results can be used to help funders and project proponents design projects to mitigate the risks of non-completion, particularly in high-risk settings. These findings should not be misinterpreted to undermine the importance of continued investment in adaptation projects across the whole of South Pacific region.
Food poisoning is caused by pathogenic bacteria in water and aquatic products, especially bivalves (e.g., oysters, clams), which can bioaccumulate pathogenic bacteria. Polluted water and aquatic products thus pose a serious threat to human health and safety. In this study, the types of pathogenic bacteria in water samples and shellfish collected from the Dadeng offshore area in Xiamen were examined. We also analyzed the relationships between dominant pathogens and major climate and water quality parameters. Our objective was to provide reference data that may be used to help prevent bacterial infections and to improve aquatic food hygiene in Xiamen and its surrounding areas to safe levels, thus ensuring the health of Xiamen residents. We found that the main pathogenic bacteria were Vibrio and Bacillus, with the dominant pathogen being Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Physical and chemical indexes (water temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity) of water bodies and the 3-day accumulated rainfall were found to be important factors affecting the occurrence and abundance of V. parahaemolyticus.
Human society has experienced, and will continue to experience, extensive loss and damage from worsening anthropogenic climate change. Despite our natural tendencies to categorise and organise, it can be unhelpful to delineate clean boundaries and linear understandings for complex and messy concepts such as loss and damage. Drawing on the perspectives of 42 local and regional Pacific Islander stakeholders, an underexplored resource for understanding loss and damage, we explore the complexity and interconnectedness of non-economic loss and damage (NELD). According to participants, Pacific Islander worldviews, knowledge systems and cosmologies often make it difficult to separate and evaluate NELD independently, challenging the nomenclature of NELD categories developed through international mechanisms. Instead, NELD understandings are often centred on the interdependencies between losses, including the cascading flow-on effects that can occur and the nature of some losses as risk multipliers (i.e. one loss creating the risk for further losses). Most notably, losses to biodiversity, ecosystem services and land are critically linked to, and have cascading effects on, livelihoods, knowledge, ways of life, wellbeing, and culture and heritage. We argue that loss and damage is not always absolute, and that there are NELD that are arguably reparable. Concerning, however, is that biodiversity loss, as a risk multiplier, was considered the least reparable by participants. We put forward that NELD understandings must consider interconnectivity, and that biodiversity and ecosystem conservation and restoration must be the focus for interventions to prevent irreparable and cascading losses from climate change in the Pacific Islands.
The environment plays a significant role in the global burden of disease for children. Climate-related disasters such as the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season are increasingly contributing to this burden. United Nations designated Small Island Developing States (SIDS) like Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands are particularly at risk due to environmental health hazards caused by natural disasters, and health care structure vulnerabilities. United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDG), specifically UN SDG 3, 13 and 17, focus on climate impacts via promotion of health preparedness and building partnerships between different sectors of society, respectively. The Pediatric Environmental Health Specialty Unit’s (PEHSU) work is consistent with these most notably via the delivery of environmental health services along with training nurses, doctors, and other health professionals, formation of partnerships and linking resources. Therefore, training a diverse array of health professionals and linking these groups to relevant community resources is of utmost importance and has the potential to enhance the effective management and early prevention of top environmental health (EH) risks. Nursing is identified as a key health sector to engage for this initiative. This article describes the work of the Federal Region 2 PEHSU in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands that supports health professionals’ knowledge building, development of environmental health services, and promotion of wide scale access to such services for children and families. The PEHSU’s work is consistent with these most notably with regards to the delivery of environmental health services in pediatrics.
Global warming and air pollution affect the transmission pathway and the survival of viruses, altering the human immune system as well. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically highlights the key roles of climate and air chemistry in viral epidemics. The elongated form of the Italian peninsula and the two major islands (the largest in Europe) is a perfect case study to assess some of these key roles, as the fate of the virus is mirroring the industrialization in the continental part of our country. Fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), geography, and climate explain what is happening in Italy and support cleaner air actions to address efficiently other outbreaks. Besides the environmental factors, future works should also address the genetic difference among individuals to explain the spatial variability of the human response to viral infections.
Climate change poses significant threats to wellbeing and livelihoods of people and the ecosystems in many Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Adaptation solutions must counteract these threats while also supporting development in vulnerable SIDS. Suitable options need to ensure that connections between the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of socio-economic systems are defined in a way that can support how decisions are made (and by whom) and how these can impact on other parts of these systems. This is particularly important in many Pacific SIDS, where communities practise customary natural resource management and continue to rely on local natural resources. In this study, we model the anticipated impacts of climate change and the benefits of the ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approaches on community wellbeing in Vanuatu. To do this, we applied participatory and expert elicitation methods to develop a Bayesian network model, which was designed to evaluate community wellbeing responses at four explicit spatial scales. The model includes both acute and chronic impacts of climate change, the impact of coral bleaching, and the potential loss of Vanuatu’s fringing coral reefs. The model predicts that all proposed EbA interventions will have a positive impact on wellbeing in all four locations to some degree, by either directly improving the integrity of Vanuatu’s ecosystems or by protecting these ecosystems as a positive spill-over of related actions. Significantly, it also predicts that if climate change exceeds 1.5 degrees C of warming, the costs of achieving the same level of wellbeing are increased.
Climate change and mental health concerns are both defining issues of the generation of today. It has been established that the worsening climate causes many environmental disasters and physical health problems. However, its psychological impacts are still not well understood. Climate change has brought about an emerging psychological phenomenon termed ‘climate anxiety’ or ‘eco-anxiety,’ which has been described as a “chronic fear of environmental doom” (Clayton et al., 2017, p. 68) due to the impact of climate change. This predictive cross-sectional study investigated the link between climate change anxiety and mental health among 433 Filipinos. A total of 145 males and 288 females aged 18 to 26 completed the Climate Change Anxiety Scale and the Mental Health Inventory (MHI-38). Results show a significant relationship between climate change anxiety and mental health, with climate change anxiety predicting 13.5% of the overall Mental Health Index variance. Significantly, climate change anxiety was associated with the MHI-38’s global scale of Psychological Distress but not with the global scale of Psychological Well-being. The findings are discussed concerning the broader context of research on the mental health impacts of climate change.
This paper explores the perceived adaptation preference of rural island communities in addressing future climate change risks, particularly those concerning sea-level rise. The research explores the role of culture and local politics, and differences among various age and gender groups within the community regarding preferred adaptation pathways for coping with the impacts of future sea-level rise. A participatory action approach, in the form of a community workshop, was employed, which separated participants into community identified groupings. Differences in community groups’ adaptation preferences emerged, though the range of adaptation measures considered were limited, probably due to the participants’ limited exposure to adaptation mechanisms in their immediate surroundings. Overall, the communities surveyed tended to be conservative, especially in their attitudes towards western adaptation solutions developed in non-island contexts.
BACKGROUND: Climate change is anticipated to have profound effects on mental health, particularly among populations that are simultaneously ecologically and economically vulnerable to its impacts. Various pathways through which climate change can impact mental health have been theorised, but the impacts themselves remain understudied. PURPOSE: In this article we applied psychological methods to examine if climate change is affecting individuals’ mental health in the Small Island Developing State of Tuvalu, a Pacific Island nation regarded as exceptionally vulnerable to climate change. We determined the presence of psychological distress and associated impairment attributed to two categories of climate change-related stressors in particular: 1) local environmental impacts caused or exacerbated by climate change, and 2) hearing about global climate change and contemplating its future implications. METHODS: The findings draw on data collected in a mixed-method study involving 100 Tuvaluan participants. Data were collected via face-to-face structured interviews that lasted 45?min on average and were subjected to descriptive, correlational, and between-group analyses. RESULTS: The findings revealed participants’ experiences of distress in relation to both types of stressor, and demonstrated that a high proportion of participants are experiencing psychological distress at levels that reportedly cause them impairment in one or more areas of daily life. CONCLUSIONS: The findings lend weight to the claim that climate change represents a risk to mental health and obliges decision-makers to consider these risks when conceptualizing climate-related harms or tallying the costs of inaction.
Mosquitoes are vectors of pathogens, causing human and animal diseases. Their ability to adapt and expand worldwide increases spread of mosquito-borne diseases. Climate changes contribute in enhancing these “epidemic conditions”. Understanding the effect of weather variables on mosquito seasonality and host searching activity contributes towards risk control of the mosquito-borne disease outbreaks. To enable early detection of Aedes invasive species we developed a surveillance network for both invasive and native mosquitoes at the main point of entry for the first time in Cyprus. Mosquito sampling was carried out for one year (May 2017-June 2018), at bimonthly intervals around Limassol port. Morphological and molecular identification confirmed the presence of 5 species in the study region: Culex. pipiens, Aedes detritus, Ae. caspius, Culiseta longiareolata and Cs. annulata. No invasive Aedes mosquito species were detected. The Pearson’s correlation and multiple linear regression were used to compare number of sampled mosquitoes and weather variables for three most numerous species (Cx. pipiens, Ae. detritus and Ae. caspius). The population densities of the most numerous species were highest from February to April. Number of Cx. pipiens (-0.48), Ae. detritus (-0.40) and Ae. caspius (-0.38) specimens sampled was negatively correlated with average daily temperature. Monthly relative humidity showed positive correlation with the numbers of the species sampled, Cx. pipiens (0.66) Ae. detritus (0.68), and Ae. caspius (0.71). Mosquito abundance of Cx. pipiens (0.97) and Ae. detritus (0.98) was strongly correlated to seasonal precipitation as well. Our work is a stepping stone to further stimulate implementation of International Health Regulations and implementation of early warning surveillance system for detection of invasive Aedes mosquitoes, native mosquitoes and arboviruses they may transmit. A network for the surveillance of both invasive and native mosquito species at the main point of entry for the first time in Cyprus was developed. Number of mosquitoes sampled was correlated with weather factors to identify parameters that might predict mosquito activity and species distribution to the prevention of international spread of vector mosquitoes and vector-borne diseases.
The recent emergence and established presence of Aedes aegypti in the Autonomous Region of Madeira, Portugal, was responsible for the first autochthonous outbreak of dengue in Europe. The island has not reported any dengue cases since the outbreak in 2012. However, there is a high risk that an introduction of the virus would result in another autochthonous outbreak given the presence of the vector and permissive environmental conditions. Understanding the dynamics of a potential epidemic is critical for targeted local control strategies. Here, we adopt a deterministic model for the transmission of dengue in Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The model integrates empirical and mechanistic parameters for virus transmission, under seasonally varying temperatures for Funchal, Madeira Island. We examine the epidemic dynamics as triggered by the arrival date of an infectious individual; the influence of seasonal temperature mean and variation on the epidemic dynamics; and performed a sensitivity analysis on the following quantities of interest: the epidemic peak size, time to peak, and the final epidemic size. Our results demonstrate the potential for summer and autumn season transmission of dengue, with the arrival date significantly affecting the distribution of the timing and peak size of the epidemic. Late-summer arrivals were more likely to produce large epidemics within a short peak time. Epidemics within this favorable period had an average of 11% of the susceptible population infected at the peak, at an average peak time of 95 days. We also demonstrated that seasonal temperature variation dramatically affects the epidemic dynamics, with warmer starting temperatures producing large epidemics with a short peak time and vice versa. Overall, our quantities of interest were most sensitive to variance in the date of arrival, seasonal temperature, transmission rates, mortality rate, and the mosquito population; the magnitude of sensitivity differs across quantities. Our model could serve as a useful guide in the development of effective local control and mitigation strategies for dengue fever in Madeira Island.
The occurrence of infectious diseases may change tourists’ perceptions of a destination’s image and value. This article proposes and empirically tests a choice model to measure the effect of the risk of infectious disease outbreaks caused by climate change on tourists’ willingness to pay for holidays to island destinations. With this aim, an online survey was administrated to 2538 European frequent travellers at their country of residence. Tourists were presented with a hypothetical situation whereby they had to choose among eleven well-known European island destinations for their next holiday. The choice cards included the probability of the occurrence of infectious disease events in the context of other potential risks caused by climate change (i.e., forest fires, floods, heat waves, etc.). The results show infectious disease is the risk that more negatively affects tourists’ willingness to pay to visit islands, followed by forest fires. The results have implications for tourism policy, highlighting the importance of prevention and response strategies, and the design of climate-oriented services, which may raise opportunities to work towards the enhancement of those health and environmental conditions of tourist destinations that ensure their sustainability in the longer term.
Ciguatera poisoning (CP) results from the consumption of seafood contaminated with ciguatoxins (CTXs). This disease is highly prevalent in French Polynesia with several well-identified hotspots. Rapa Island, the southernmost inhabited island in the country, was reportedly free of CP until 2007. This study describes the integrated approach used to investigate the etiology of a fatal mass-poisoning outbreak that occurred in Rapa in 2009. Symptoms reported in patients were evocative of ciguatera. Several Gambierdiscus field samples collected from benthic assemblages tested positive by the receptor binding assay (RBA). Additionally, the toxicity screening of ?250 fish by RBA indicated ?78% of fish could contain CTXs. The presence of CTXs in fish was confirmed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The potential link between climate change and this range expansion of ciguatera to a subtropical locale of French Polynesia was also examined based on the analysis of temperature time-series data. Results are indicative of a global warming trend in Rapa area. A five-fold reduction in incidence rates was observed between 2009 and 2012, which was due in part to self-regulating behavior among individuals (avoidance of particular fish species and areas). Such observations underscore the prominent role played by community outreach in ciguatera risk management.
Sri Lanka is experiencing various social and environmental challenges, including drought, storms, floods, and landslides, due to climate change. One of Sri Lanka’s biggest cities, Kurunegala, is a densely populated city that is gradually turning into an economic revitalization area. This fast-growing city needs to establish an integrated urban plan that takes into account the risks of climate change. Thus, a climate change risk assessment was conducted for both the water and heat wave risks via discussions with key stakeholders. The risk assessment was conducted as a survey based on expert assessment of local conditions, with awareness surveys taken by residents, especially women. The assessment determined that the lack of drinking water was the biggest issue, a problem that has become more serious due to recent droughts caused by climate change and insufficient water management. In addition, the outbreak of diseases caused by heat waves was identified as a serious concern. Risk assessment is integral to developing an action plan for minimizing the damage from climate change. It is necessary to support education and awareness in developing countries so that they can perform risk assessment well and develop both problem-solving and policy-making abilities to adapt to a changing climate.
With over one million cases worldwide annually and a high fatality in symptomatic forms, human leptospirosis is a growing public health concern for the most vulnerable populations, especially in the context of global warming and unplanned urbanization. Although the Asia-Pacific region is particularly affected, accurate epidemiological data are often lacking. We conducted an eleven-year retrospective laboratory-based epidemiological survey of human leptospirosis in New Caledonia. From 2006 to 2016, 904 cases were laboratory-confirmed, including 29 fatalities, corresponding to an average annual incidence of 30.6/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 3.2%. Over the period, there was a major shift from indirect serological diagnosis by MAT to direct diagnosis by real-time PCR, a more specific and sensitive test when performed early in the course of the disease. The systematic implementation of genotyping informed on the variety of the infective strains involved, with a predominance of serogroups Icterohaemorrhagiae and Pyrogenes. The epidemiological pattern showed a marked seasonality with an annual peak in March-April. Interestingly, the seasonal peak in children of school age was significantly earlier and corresponded to school holidays, suggesting that attending school from February on could protect children from environment-borne leptospirosis.