Changing climatic conditions and other anthropogenic influences have altered tick distribution, abundance and seasonal activity over the last decades. In Germany, the two most important tick species are Ixodes ricinus and Dermacentor reticulatus, the latter of which has expanded its range across the country during the past three decades. While I. ricinus was rarely found during the colder months in the past, D. reticulatus is known to be active at lower temperatures. To quantify tick appearance during winter, specimens were monitored in quasi-natural tick plots three times a week. Additionally, the questing activities of these two tick species were observed throughout the year at nine field collection sites that were regularly sampled by the flagging method from April 2020 to April 2022. Furthermore, tick winter activity in terms of host infestation was analysed as part of a nationwide submission study from March 2020 to October 2021, in which veterinarians sent in ticks mainly collected from dogs and cats. All three study approaches showed a year-round activity of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus in Germany. During the winter months (December to February), on average 1.1% of the inserted I. ricinus specimens were observed at the tops of rods in the tick plots. The average questing activity of I. ricinus amounted to 2 ticks/100 m² (range: 1-17) in the flagging study, and 32.4% (211/651) of ticks found infesting dogs and cats during winter 2020/21 were I. ricinus. On average 14.7-20.0% of the inserted D. reticulatus specimens were observed at the tops of rods in the tick plots, while the average winter questing activity in the field study amounted to 23 specimens/100 m² (range: 0-62), and 49.8% (324/651) of all ticks collected from dogs and cats during winter 2020/21 were D. reticulatus. Additionally, the hedgehog tick Ixodes hexagonus was found to infest dogs and cats quite frequently during the winter months, accounting for 13.2% (86/651) of the collected ticks. A generalized linear mixed model identified significant correlations of D. reticulatus winter activity in quasi-natural plots with climatic variables. The combined study approaches confirmed a complementary main activity pattern of I. ricinus and D. reticulatus with climate change-driven winter activity of both species. Milder winters and a decrease of snowfall, and consequently high winter activity of D. reticulatus, among other factors, may have contributed to the rapid spread of this tick species throughout the country. Therefore, an effective year-round tick control is strongly recommended to not only efficiently protect dogs and cats with outdoor access from ticks and tick-borne pathogens (TBPs), but also to limit the further geographical spread of ticks and TBPs to so far non-endemic regions. Further measures, including information of the public, are necessary to protect both, humans and animals, in a One Health approach.
The planetary crises require health professionals to understand the interlinkages between health and environmental changes, and how to reduce ecological harm (ie, ecological footprint) and promote positive change (ie, ecological handprint). However, health professions’ education and training are mostly lacking these aspects. In this Viewpoint, we report findings from the evaluation of the Planetary Health Academy, the first open online lecture series for transformative planetary health education in Germany. In a retrospective online survey, 458 of 3656 Planetary Health Academy participants reported on their emotions towards climate change, attitudes towards health professionals’ responsibilities, self-efficacy, and the contribution of the Planetary Health Academy to their knowledge and actions. Additionally, motivators and barriers to acting were assessed. Our findings provide insights that can inform future efforts for transformative education. Combined with network and movement building, education could act as a social tipping element toward actions to mitigate global environmental changes.
The present study contributes to the issue of the urban heat island (UHI) effect with its possibly associated thermal stress for city dwellers and its potential mitigation during heat waves and dry spells in Central Europe. It is based on meteorological measurements along an urban transect in the city of Wurzburg, Germany. Due to its topographic and structural situation, Wurzburg is prone to an intense urban heat island (UHI). The measurements have started in 2018 and, hence, cover a period that was characterized by record high temperatures and long dry spells in Central Europe. Particularly on days with a maximum air temperature of more than 25 degrees C, an intense UHI was observed with the highest amplitude in the afternoon and, even more, during the evening hours. The highest measured difference between the densely built inner city and the outskirts was 8.2 degrees C. The UHI during summer is noticeably more pronounced, especially during the evening hours, when the regional background climate is anomalously warm and dry. This can be ascribed to anticyclonic weather types that prevailed over Central Europe during summertime between 2018 and 2020. The cooling effect of urban trees, in this case Tilia cordata, on near-surface air temperature amounts to partly more than 2 degrees C and, hence, mitigates the UHI locally, especially at noon and in the early afternoon. However, the cooling rate is only half as much when the trees suffer from water stress. Thus, an appropriate management of city’s green infrastructure represents a useful strategy to mitigate the strength of the UHI and the heat stress in Central Europe.
AIM: The climate and ecological crises are considered fundamental threats to human health. Healthcare workers in general and doctors in particular can contribute as change agents in mitigation and adaptation. Planetary health education (PHE) aims to harness this potential. This study explores perspectives among stakeholders involved in PHE at German medical schools on the characteristics of high-quality PHE and compares them to existing PHE frameworks. METHODS: In 2021, we conducted a qualitative interview study with stakeholders from German medical schools involved in PHE. Three different groups were eligible: faculty members, medical students actively involved in PHE, and study deans of medical schools. Recruitment was performed through national PHE networks and snowball sampling. Thematic qualitative text analysis according to Kuckartz was used for the analysis. Results were systematically compared to three existing PHE frameworks. RESULTS: A total of 20 participants (13 female) from 15 different medical schools were interviewed. Participants covered a wide range of professional backgrounds and experience in PHE education. The analysis revealed ten key themes: (1) Complexity and systems thinking, (2) inter- and transdisciplinarity, (3) ethical dimension, (4) responsibility of health professionals, (5) transformative competencies including practical skills, (6) space for reflection and resilience building, (7) special role of students, (8) need for curricular integration, (9) innovative and proven didactic methods, and (10) education as a driver of innovation. Six of our themes showed substantial overlap with existing PHE frameworks. Two of our themes were only mentioned in one of the frameworks, and two others were not explicitly mentioned. Few important elements of the frameworks did not emerge from our data. CONCLUSIONS: In the light of increased attention regarding the connections of the climate and ecological crises and health, our results can be useful for anyone working toward the integration of planetary health into medical schools’ and any health professions’ curricula and should be considered when designing and implementing new educational activities.
BACKGROUND: Climate change is a major threat to human health and has direct and indirect impacts on the human psyche. METHODS: To assess the state of knowledge on the impact of climate change on mental health in Germany, a scoping review was conducted for the focus topics extreme weather events, temperature increase, intra-psychological processing, sociological aspects, and resilience factors. Ten studies met the inclusion criteria of the searches in the databases Academic Search Complete, CINAHL, PubPsych, PubMed, and PsychInfo. The majority of the studies looked at correlative relationships in a cross-sectional design. RESULTS: There are indications of an accumulation of psychiatric disorders after extreme weather events; in addition, the risk of suicide increases with higher temperatures and it appears there is an increase in aggressive behaviour. The majority of people surveyed in Germany report concerns about the consequences of climate change, although these currently rarely lead to clinically significant impairments in mental health. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the evidence for Germany must be classified as insufficient. In addition to the absolute priority of climate protection (mitigation) by reducing emissions, there is a particular need for additional research with a focus on vulnerable groups and possibilities for prevention and adaptation.
Many publications dealt with the monitoring of heat-related mortality. Fewer analyses referred to indicators of heat-related morbidity. The aim of this work was to describe the heat-related morbidity using rescue service data from the city of Frankfurt/Main, Germany for the time period 2014-2022, with regard to the questions: 1) How do rescue service deployments develop over the years? Is there a trend identifiable towards a decrease in deployments over the years, e.g. as an effect of either (physiological) adaptation of the population or of the measures for prevention of heat-related morbidity? 2) Which heat parameters (days with a heat warning, heat days, heat weeks, heat waves) are most strongly associated with heat-related morbidity in terms of rescue service deployments and might therefore be additionally used as an easily communicable and understandable heat-warning indicator? Rescue service data were provided by the interdisciplinary medical supply compass system “IVENA” and adjusted for population development including age development. The effect of various indicators for heat exposure, such as days with a heat warning from the German meteorological service based on the scientific concept of “perceived heat”, heat days, heat wave days and heat week days on different endpoints for heat morbidity (deployments in total as well as for heat associated diagnoses) was calculated using both difference-based (difference ± 95% CI) and ratio-based (ratio ± 95% CI) effect estimators. Rescue services deployments in summer months increased overall from 2014 to 2022 in all age groups over the years (2698 to 3517/100.000 population). However, there was a significant decrease in 2020, which could be explained by the special situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, probably caused by the absence of tourists and commuters from the city. In addition, no data are available on the actual implementation of the measures by the population. Therefore, an effect of the measures taken to prevent heat-associated morbidity in Frankfurt am Main could not be directly demonstrated, and our first question cannot be answered on the basis of these data. Almost all heat definitions used for exposure (day with a heat warning, heat day, heat wave day, heat week day) showed significant effects on heat-associated diagnoses in every year. When analysing the effect on all deployments, the effect was in part strongly dependent on individual years: Heat wave days and heat week days even showed negative effects in some years. The definition heat day led to a significant increase in rescue service deployments in all single years between 2014 and 2022 (ratio 2014-2022 1.09 (95CI 1.07-1.11); with a range of 1.05 (95CI 1.01-1.09) in 2020 and 1.14 (95CI 1.08-1.21) in 2014), this was not the case for days with a heat warning (ratio 2014-2022 1.04 (95CI1.02-1.05); with a range of 1.01 (95CI 0.97-1.05) in 2017 and 1.16 (95CI 1.10-1.23). Thus being not inferior to the heat warning day, the “heat day” defined as ≥32 °C maximum temperature, easily obtainable from the weather forecast, can be recommended for the activities of the public health authorities (warning, surveillance etc.) regarding heat health action planning.
In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling into question their flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey (n=1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned, 85 % did not expect very severe flooding and 46 % reported a lack of situational knowledge on protective behaviour. Regression analysis reveals that this knowledge is influenced not only by gender and flood experience but also by the content and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Still, the share of people who did not report any emergency response is low and comparable to other flood events. However, the perceived effectiveness of the protective behaviour was low and mainly compromised by high water levels and the perceived level of surprise about the flood magnitude. Good situational knowledge and a higher number of previously experienced floods were linked to performing more effective loss-reducing action. Dissemination of warnings, clearer communication of the expected flood magnitude and recommendations on adequate responses to a severe flood, particularly with regard to flash and pluvial floods, are seen as major entry points for improving the FFWRS in Germany.
Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the twenty first century, yet combating it entails substantial health co-benefits. Physicians and other health professionals have not yet fully embraced their responsibilities in the climate crisis, especially about their communication with patients. While medical associations are calling on physicians to integrate climate change into health counselling, there is little empirical evidence about corresponding perceptions of patients.This study aimed to explore primary care patients’ perceptions of climate-sensitive health counselling. From July to December 2021, 27 qualitative interviews with patients were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. A purposive sampling technique was applied to identify patients who had already experienced climate-sensitive health counselling in Germany. Patients’ perceptions of climate-sensitive health counselling were characterised by a high level of acceptance, which was enhanced by stressing the link between climate change and health, being credible concerning physician’s own climate-friendly lifestyle, building upon good therapeutic relationships, creating a sense of solidarity, and working in a patient centred manner. Challenges and risks for acceptance were patients’ disinterest or surprise, time constraints, feared politicisation of consultations, and evoking feelings of guilt and shame. These findings suggest that primary care patients can accept climate-sensitive health counselling, if it follows certain principles of communication, including patient-centredness. Our findings can be useful for developing communication guidelines, respective policies as well as well-designed intervention studies, which are needed to test the health and environmental effects of climate-sensitive health counselling.
BACKGROUND: Children and adolescents are particularly vulnerable to the mental health impacts of extreme weather events (EWEs). This qualitative study aims to explore the stressful and protective factors after experiencing an EWE, such as flooding, how adolescents coped with these experiences and what mental health care they received. METHODS: Nine semi-structured interviews were conducted with young adults (18-24 years) living in Simbach am Inn, a German town affected by flooding in 2016. The interviews were analyzed using Kuckartz’s qualitative content analysis. RESULTS: The days after the flood were described as the most stressful time. The main stressors were concern for their family, confrontation with the extent of the damage and uncertainty during the flood. In terms of protective factors, respondents cited talking about the flood, family support and helping with cleanup as the most important. Adolescents requested further mental health care in schools and not just in the immediate aftermath. CONCLUSION: Future preventive and therapeutic care measures should be optimized according to protective and stressful factors. Mental health care should be offered after months and should be low-threshold. Additionally, the social environment of adolescents is essential for their mental wellbeing after an EWE and needs to be strengthened.
OBJECTIVES: Climate change (CC) is of major importance for physicians as they are directly confronted with changing disease patterns, work in a greenhouse gas intensive sector and can be potential advocates for healthy people on a healthy planet. METHODS: We assessed third to fifth year medical students’ needs to support the integration of CC topics into medical curricula. A questionnaire with 54 single choice-based items was newly designed with the following sections: role perception, knowledge test, learning needs, preference of educational strategies and demographic characteristics. It was administered online to students at Heidelberg medical faculty. Data sets were used for descriptive statistics and regression modelling. RESULTS: 72.4% of students (N=170, 56.2% female, 76% aged 20-24 years) (strongly) agreed that physicians carry a responsibility to address CC in their work setting while only 4.7% (strongly) agreed that their current medical training had given them enough skills to do so. Knowledge was high in the area of CC, health impacts of CC, vulnerabilities and adaptation (70.1% correct answers). Knowledge gaps were greatest for health co-benefits and climate-friendly healthcare (55.5% and 16.7% of correct answers, respectively). 79.4% wanted to see CC and health included in the medical curriculum with a preference for integration into existing mandatory courses. A multilinear regression model with factors age, gender, semester, aspired work setting, political leaning, role perception and knowledge explained 45.9% of variance for learning needs. CONCLUSION: The presented results encourage the integration of CC and health topics including health co-benefits and climate-friendly healthcare, as well as respective professional role development into existing mandatory courses of the medical curriculum.
BACKGROUND: Allergic diseases, especially inhalation allergies, have reached epidemic levels and environmental factors play an important role in their development. Climate change influences the occurrence, frequency, and severity of allergic diseases. METHODS: The contents of this article were selected by the authors and developed section by section according to their expertise and the current state of knowledge. The sections were then discussed and agreed upon amongst all authors. RESULTS: The article highlights direct and indirect effects of climate change on allergies. It goes into detail about the connections between climate change and (new) pollen allergens as well as (new) occupational inhalation allergens, explains the effects of climate change on the clinical picture of atopic dermatitis, discusses the connections between air pollutants and allergies, and provides information about the phenomenon of thunderstorm asthma. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for action in the field of pollen and fungal spore monitoring, allergy and sensitisation monitoring, urban planning from an allergological perspective, and changes in the working environment, among others.
The commonly used weather stations cannot fully capture the spatiotemporal variability of near-surface air temperature (T(air)), leading to exposure misclassification and biased health effect estimates. We aimed to improve the spatiotemporal coverage of T(air) data in Germany by using multi-stage modeling to estimate daily 1 × 1 km minimum (T(min)), mean (T(mean)), maximum (T(max)) T(air) and diurnal T(air) range during 2000-2020. We used weather station T(air) observations, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST), elevation, vegetation and various land use predictors. In the first stage, we built a linear mixed model with daily random intercepts and slopes for LST adjusted for several spatial predictors to estimate T(air) from cells with both T(air) and LST available. In the second stage, we used this model to predict T(air) for cells with only LST available. In the third stage, we regressed the second stage predictions against interpolated T(air) values to obtain T(air) countrywide. All models achieved high accuracy (0.91 ≤ R(2) ≤ 0.98) and low errors (1.03 °C ≤ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≤ 2.02 °C). Validation with external data confirmed the good performance, locally, i.e., in Augsburg for all models (0.74 ≤ R(2) ≤ 0.99, 0.87 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 2.05 °C) and countrywide, for the T(mean) model (0.71 ≤ R(2) ≤ 0.99, 0.79 °C ≤ RMSE ≤ 1.19 °C). Annual T(mean) averages ranged from 8.56 °C to 10.42 °C with the years beyond 2016 being constantly hotter than the 21-year average. The spatial variability within Germany exceeded 15 °C annually on average following patterns including mountains, rivers and urbanization. Using a case study, we showed that modeling leads to broader T(air) variability representation for exposure assessment of participants in health cohorts. Our results indicate the proposed models as suitable for estimating nationwide T(air) at high resolution. Our product is critical for temperature-based epidemiological studies and is also available for other research purposes.
BACKGROUND: Climate change has already led to a significant temperature increase in Germany. The average temperature in the past decade was approximately 2°C above the pre-industrial level and eight of the ten hottest summers since the beginning of systematic weather records in 1881 were recorded in the last 30 years. METHODS: Based on a selective literature search and authors’ own results, the article summarises the current state of knowledge on heat and its health impacts for Germany, addresses adaptation measures, and gives an outlook on implementation and research questions. RESULTS: Heat can aggravate pre-existing conditions such as diseases of the cardiovascular system, the respiratory tract, or the kidneys and trigger potentially harmful side effects for numerous medications. A significant increase in mortality is regularly observed during heat events. Previous approaches to mitigate the health impact of high temperatures include, for example, the heat alerts of the German Meteorological Service and recommendations for the preparation of heat-health action plans. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence on health impacts of heat and awareness of the need for heat-related health protection have grown in recent years, but there is still a need for further action and research.
Health-promoting and sustainable behaviors, such as active transportation and sustainable diets, are associated with positive effects on human health and the environment. In order to unlock the potential of university students as key actors and multipliers, it is of interest to investigate their level of knowledge about the health effects of climate change and their willingness toward and implementation of health-promoting and sustainable behaviors. In November 2021, an online survey was conducted among students at the University of Regensburg, Germany. A total of 3756 participants (response rate 18%; mean age 23 years; 69% women) provided valid data. A large proportion of medical students (48%) considered themselves well-informed about the health-related effects of climate change, while only a small proportion (22%) of students within economic/computer/data sciences and law felt informed. Most participants knew about the impact of climate change on malnutrition (78%), but considerably fewer were aware of its impact on cardiovascular diseases (52%). Participants who considered themselves informed were consistently more willing to engage in climate-friendly behavior, and this willingness was also reflected in their actions, as they simultaneously promoted a healthy lifestyle. Across all academic disciplines, there is a strong need for knowledge transfer regarding topics that combine health and sustainable development.
Management of adverse health-related effects from heat waves requires comprehensive and accessible sour-ces of information. This paper examines the effects of temperature and air pollution on human health and identifies areas with increased occurrence of emergency ambulance dispatches in the city of Wu & BULL;rzburg, Bavaria, Germany, and discusses the applicability for health care interventions and urban planning. An overdispersed Poisson generalized additive model was used to examine and predict the association and potential lag of exposure between temperature, air pollution, and three types of emergency ambulance dispatches during the study period from 2011 to 2019. A linear model was used to esti-mate heat-wave effects. A line density function was used to identify areas with increased occurrence of dispatches. Signifi- cant effects of temperature were detected for nontraumatic and cardiovascular diseases after exceeding a threshold temperature. The exposure-response relationships showed an increased relative risk up to two days after exposure for non-traumatic and cardiovascular diseases. Results indicate a significant association between presence of heat waves and cardio-vascular diseases with up to 17% (95% confidence interval: 5.9%-30.0%) increased relative risk on a heat-wave day relative to a non-heat-wave day. Dispatches for cardiovascular diseases occur more often in areas with a high population and building density, especially in summer. The analyses identified hotspots of heat-related dispatches in areas with in-creased population and building density and provides baseline information for interventions in future urban planning and public health care management based on data commonly available even in small cities. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how authorities in even medium-and small-sized cities can assess health impacts of heat stress or air pollution using free accessible emergency ambulance data and software to incorporate the outcomes in their spatial planning or health care management. This is important as ongoing climate change requires all urban communities to adapt and reduce adverse impacts of climate change and air pollution. Our results show that extreme heat leads to increased emergency ambulance dispatches in a medium-sized city in Germany and provide a spatial overview of where health care interventions and urban planning can focus to mitigate adverse effects.
Due to their vulnerability, children need special protection from health effects of climate change, which are already noticeable today. Since a large proportion of children in Germany are in non-parental care during the day, the pedagogical staff in daycare centers play a crucial role in protecting children’s health. For this reason, a quantitative online survey was conducted among pedagogical staff (n = 181) in daycare centers of one provider in Munich, where children aged nine weeks to 10 years are cared for. It was examined how the pedagogical staff assesses the risk of climate change-related health hazards on children’s health and on its own health at work today and in the next 10 years. Additionally, it was surveyed whether or which measures for (health-related) adaptation to climate change and long-term climate change mitigation in the form of education for sustainable development (ESD) are implemented in the daycare centers. The results were statistically analyzed both descriptively and with multiple linear regression analyses to test the assumed associations. The results show that despite the strong perception of climate change-related health risks, their implementation in corresponding protection and adaptation measures is insufficient in most of the daycare centers surveyed. The informedness of the pedagogical staff proved to be a decisive influencing factor in the implementation of measures. Therefore, in addition to stronger implementation of structural adaptation measures in daycare centers, target group-specific knowledge and instructions for action should also be increasingly conveyed in the training curricula and further education of pedagogical staff.
BACKGROUND: This article represents the conclusion of the updated German status report on climate change and health, which was jointly written by authors from over 30 national institutions and organisations. The objectives are (a) to synthesise the options for action formulated in the report, (b) to combine them into clusters and guiding principles, (c) to address the success factors for implementation, and (d) to combine the options for action into target parameters. METHODS: The options for action from the individual contributions of the status report were systematically recorded and categorised (n=236). Topical clusters were then formed with reference to Essential Public Health Functions, and options for action were assigned to them. RESULTS: Eight topical clusters of options for action and ten guiding principles were identified. These can be summarised in four overarching meta-levels of action: (a) cross-sectorally coordinated structural and behavioural prevention, (b) monitoring, surveillance, and digitalisation (including early warning systems), (c) development of an ecologically sustainable and resilient public health system, and (d) information, communication, and participation. The main success factors for implementation are the design of governance, positive storytelling and risk communication, proactive management of conflicting goals, and a cross-sectoral co-benefit approach. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the status report, systematically compiled target parameters and concrete options for action are available for public health.
Global warming of 1.5°C and even 2°C is likely to be exceeded during the 21(st) century. Climate change poses a worldwide threat and has direct and indirect effects on infectious diseases, on non-communicable diseases and on mental health. Not all people are equally able to protect themselves against the impacts of climate change; particularly populations that are vulnerable due to individual factors (children, older persons, those immunocompromised or with pre-existing conditions), social factors (the socially disadvantaged), or living and working conditions (e. g. people who work outdoors) are subject to an increased risk. Concepts such as One Health or Planetary Health provide a framework to frame both climate change itself and adaptation strategies or sets of actions for environmental human and animal health. Knowledge of climate change impacts has grown in recent years, and mitigation and adaptation strategies have been developed.
Climate change adaptation planning and implementation have proliferated over the past years. However, we still lack an understanding of how society adapts itself outside of policy sectors and as part of what some refer to as “autonomous adaptation.” The way people respond to risk without deliberate interventions of public actors is not well understood. Given the increasing occurrence of climatic changes that affect our daily lives, the topic is regaining attention with an emphasis on behavioral adaptation. This angle, however, does little to enhance our understanding of how society adapts collectively and which practices and routines groups choose to adopt. This study investigates autonomous heat-stress adaptation efforts in two small towns in Germany. Autonomous heat-stress adaptation is approached through a lens of (social) adaptation practices. Small towns are understudied in adaptation research and have played only a minor role when it comes to public adaptation planning due to their lack of formal resources to develop public adaptation strategies. Based on empirical data, consisting of qualitative problem-centered interviews and a quantitative survey, concrete examples of (social) adaptation practices are identified and classified. The presented classification of practices goes beyond earlier attempts by generating insights on the role politics can play in providing a fruitful ground for enabling autonomous adaptation. The paper emphasizes the need for researchers and decision-makers to take a closer look at the wide variety of social adaptation practices already in place. This discloses insights on public-private adaptation mixes, which could ultimately also lift autonomous adaptation from its ad hoc and reactive nature. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Social adaptation practices are not yet at the center of research and decision-making. We believe that adding practice-based approaches to adaptation governance widens the debate on who is vulnerable and possible coping mechanisms from within society. It shows that vulnerability and adaptation lie in people’s everyday actions. We provide a first classification of heat-health adaptation practices according to their heat-health target, the involved individuals and actors, the degree of coordination involved, and the spatial and temporal scales. This classification draws attention to potential governance leverage points to initiate heat-adaptation practices. Focusing more strongly on already-in-use and possible heat-health adaptation practices puts citizens’ wants and needs at the center of adaptation governance by including them directly in the adaptation process. This can be of special interest for small towns that want to introduce citizen-based approaches to heat-risk adaptation.
BACKGROUND: Asthma and its main phenotype allergic asthma are prevalent, chronic, and complex diseases affecting 4% of the population. One main trigger for allergic asthma exacerbations is pollen. Online health information search behavior by people is increasing, and analysis of web-search data can provide valuable insight into disease burden and risk factors of a population. OBJECTIVES: We sought to perform a web-search data analysis and correlation to climate factors and pollen in 2 European countries. METHODS: We analyzed the national web-search volume for allergic asthma-related keywords in Germany and Sweden from 2018 to 2021 and correlated it to local pollen counts, climatic factors, and drug prescription rates. RESULTS: Per capita, more searches were conducted in Sweden than in Germany. A complex geographic stratification within the countries was observed. Search results were seasonal with a peak in spring and correlated with pollen counts in both countries. However, anti-asthmatic drug prescription rates in Sweden, as well as temperature and precipitation in both countries, did not correlate with search volume. CONCLUSION: Our analysis offers population-level insights about this complex disease by reporting its needs and establishing the correlation to pollen counts, which enables a targeted approach in the public health management of allergic asthma. Local pollen counts, as opposed to temperature or precipitation, might be good predictors of allergic asthma disease burden.
In recent years, Germany has seen an increase in forest fires, and many fires have occurred in mil-itary training areas that are difficult to access for firefighting. While casualties are still low and mostly restricted to firefighting personnel, settlements are also increasingly threatened. Increas-ing impacts from extreme events due to climate change will likely increase the ignition and spread of fires. More people are being affected by fires, and in need of external help to evacuate and cope with the resulting damages and losses. Forest fires also threaten military training site, with additional risks created by the presence of ammunition depots. Despite this hazard scenario, Germany so far lacks an overview of the spatial occurrence of forest fires and the related risk. This study develops a spatial exposure and social vulnerability as-sessment of settlements to forest fires in Germany. The results reveal that social vulnerability is an important variable in determining which settlements are potentially exposed to fire. Areas ex-posed to fire risk are characterised by having a higher proportion of women, a higher-than -average age, a higher number of young people under 18 years, a higher number of persons over 65 years and foreigners than the national average. Furthermore, exposed communities are char-acterised by higher rates of unoccupied housing units and lower living space per dwelling, as well as living in areas with high population densities within forested areas. The results can help to im-prove emergency management and spatial planning to prevent the development of fire risk areas.
Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) is one of the top ten global public health threats facing humanity, alongside climate change. Here, we aim to summarise the effects of climate change (i.e. raise of temperature, change in humidity or precipitation) on spread of antibiotic resistance and on infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria in Germany. METHODS: We conducted a literature search with articles published between January 2012 and July 2022. Two authors screened titles, abstracts and full texts and extracted the data systematically. RESULTS: From originally 2,389 titles, we identified six studies, which met our inclusion criteria. These studies show that an increase in temperature may lead to higher antibiotic resistance rates and an increased risk of colonisation as well as spread of pathogens. Furthermore, the number of healthcare-associated infections increases with increased temperature. Data indicate that higher antibiotic use is present in areas with warmer mean temperature. CONCLUSIONS: European data are scarce, but all studies identified point towards an increasing AMR burden due to climate change. However, further studies are needed to draw attention to the links between climatic factors and AMR and develop targeted preventive measures.
BACKGROUND: As the climate and environmental crises unfold, eco-anxiety, defined as anxiety about the crises’ devastating consequences for life on earth, affects mental health worldwide. Despite its importance, research on eco-anxiety is currently limited by a lack of validated assessment instruments available in different languages. Recently, Hogg and colleagues proposed a multidimensional approach to assess eco-anxiety. Here, we aim to translate the original English Hogg Eco-Anxiety Scale (HEAS) into German and to assess its reliability and validity in a German sample. METHODS: Following the TRAPD (translation, review, adjudication, pre-test, documentation) approach, we translated the original English scale into German. In total, 486 participants completed the German HEAS. We used Bayesian confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) to assess whether the four-factorial model of the original English version could be replicated in the German sample. Furthermore, associations with a variety of emotional reactions towards the climate crisis, general depression, anxiety, and stress were investigated. RESULTS: The German HEAS was internally consistent (Cronbach’s alphas 0.71-0.86) and the Bayesian CFA showed that model fit was best for the four-factorial model, comparable to the factorial structure of the original English scale (affective symptoms, rumination, behavioral symptoms, anxiety about personal impact). Weak to moderate associations were found with negative emotional reactions towards the climate crisis and with general depression, anxiety, and stress. DISCUSSION: Our results support the original four-factorial model of the scale and indicate that the German HEAS is a reliable and valid scale to assess eco-anxiety in German speaking populations.
BACKGROUND: Influenza seasonality has been frequently studied, but its mechanisms are not clear. Urban in-situ studies have linked influenza to meteorological or pollutant stressors. Few studies have investigated rural and less polluted areas in temperate climate zones. OBJECTIVES: We examined influences of medium-term residential exposure to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)), NO(2), SO(2), air temperature and precipitation on influenza incidence. METHODS: To obtain complete spatial coverage of Baden-Württemberg, we modeled environmental exposure from data of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. We computed spatiotemporal aggregates to reflect quarterly mean values at post-code level. Moreover, we prepared health insurance data to yield influenza incidence between January 2010 and December 2018. We used generalized additive models, with Gaussian Markov random field smoothers for spatial input, whilst using or not using quarter as temporal input. RESULTS: In the 3.85 million cohort, 513,404 influenza cases occurred over the 9-year period, with 53.6% occurring in quarter 1 (January to March), and 10.2%, 9.4% and 26.8% in quarters 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Statistical modeling yielded highly significant effects of air temperature, precipitation, PM(2.5) and NO(2). Computation of stressor-specific gains revealed up to 3499 infections per 100,000 AOK clients per year that are attributable to lowering ambient mean air temperature from 18.71 °C to 2.01 °C. Stressor specific gains were also substantial for fine particulate matter, yielding up to 502 attributable infections per 100,000 clients per year for an increase from 7.49 μg/m(3) to 15.98 μg/m(3). CONCLUSIONS: Whilst strong statistical association of temperature with other stressors makes it difficult to distinguish between direct and mediated temperature effects, results confirm genuine effects by fine particulate matter on influenza infections for both rural and urban areas in a temperate climate. Future studies should attempt to further establish the mediating mechanisms to inform public health policies.
BACKGROUND: Climate change, the Covid-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine crisis are considered unprecedented global stressors, potentially associated with serious health consequences. However, simultaneous effects of these stressors are not yet understood, making it difficult to evaluate their relative contribution to the population burden and potential future manifestations in clinically significant psychiatric disorders. This study aimed at disentangling the relative contribution of the three stressor groups on current sub-clinical stress symptoms. METHODS: A cross-sectional, representative survey study was conducted two months after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in Germany. Proportional quota sampling was applied for age, gender, income, and regional characteristics. Data were recruited by means of an online survey. 3094 data sets (1560 females) were included. Age ranged from 18-89 (M: 50.4 years; SD: 17.2). The Subclinical Stress Questionnaire (SSQ-25) served as main outcome measure. In collaboration with a professional media agency, 20 items were generated to capture salient population stressors. A three-factor exploratory structural equation model confirmed the appropriateness of this scale. RESULTS: (1) Differences in subjective rankings revealed that stressors related to the Ukraine crisis were rated as most worrying, followed by climate change, and the Covid-19 pandemic (Generalized-Linear-Model: Epsilon = .97; F(1.94, 6001.14) = 1026.12, p < .001; η(p)(2) = .25). (2) In a linear regression model (R(2) = .39), Covid-19 pandemic stressors were the only meaningful predictors for current ill-health (standardized β = .48). Ukraine crisis did not predict stress symptom profiles in the present sample. (3) Older and male individuals report less and/or less severe stress symptoms, although effect sizes were small (range: η(2) .11-.21). An older age also reduced the impact of Covid-19 stressors. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers from the health sciences must consider overlapping effects from population stressors. Although the Ukraine crisis and climate change mark salient stressors, including economic threats, the Covid-19 pandemic still has a profound effect on ill-health and must be considered as a relevant factor in future manifestations of psychiatric and associated health consequences.
As the underlying mechanisms of the adverse effects of cold spells on cardiac events are not well understood, we explored the effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity, a blood parameter linked to cardiovascular disease. This cross-sectional study involved 3622 participants from the KORA S1 Study (1984-1985), performed in Augsburg, Germany. Exposure data was obtained from the Bavarian State Office for the Environment. Cold spells were defined as two or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below the 3(rd), 5(th), or 10(th) percentile of the distribution. The effects of cold spells on plasma viscosity were explored by generalized additive models with distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM). We estimated cumulative effects at lags 0-1, 0-6, 0-13, 0-20, and 0-27 days separately. Cold spells (mean temperature <3(rd), <5(th) or <10(th) percentile) were significantly associated with an increase in plasma viscosity with a lag of 0-1 days [%change of geometric mean (95% confidence interval): 1.35 (0.06-2.68), 1.35 (0.06-2.68), and 2.49 (0.34-4.69), respectively], and a lag of 0-27 days [18.81 (8.97-29.54), 17.85 (8.29-28.25), and 7.41 (3.35-11.0), respectively]. For the analysis with mean temperature <3(rd) or 10(th) percentile, we also observed significant associations at lag 0-20 days [8.34 (0.43-16.88), and 4.96 (1.68, 8.35), respectively]. We found that cold spells had significant immediate and longer lagged effects on plasma viscosity. This finding supports the complex interplay of multiple mechanisms of cold on adverse cardiac events and enriches the knowledge about how cold exposure acts on the human body.
BACKGROUND: Lyme borreliosis is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in Europe, and numbers might increase due to climate change. However, borreliosis is not notifiable in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. Hence, little is known about the current human seroprevalence in NRW. However, the proportion of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato-infected ticks has increased in a NRW nature reserve. The literature suggests increasing age and male sex as risk factors for seropositivity, whereas the influence of socioeconomic status is controversial. Thus, we aimed to determine regional seropositivity for Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (B. burgdorferi s.l.) and its risk factors in the Rhineland Study population in Bonn, NRW, and to compare it with previous surveys to evaluate potential effects of climate change. METHODS: We assessed seropositivity in 2865 Rhineland Study participants by determining immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies for B. burgdorferi s.l. using a two-step algorithm combining enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests and line immunoblots. We calculated the odds of being classified as IgG or IgM positive as a function of age, sex, and educational level using binomial logistic regression models. We applied varying seropositivity classifications and weights considering age, sex and education to compensate for differences between the sample and regional population characteristics. RESULTS: IgG antibodies for B. burgdorferi s.l. were present in 2.4% and IgM antibodies in 0.6% of the participants (weighted: 2.2% [IgG], 0.6% [IgM]). The likelihood of IgG seropositivity increased by 3.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-5.2%) per 1 year increase in age. Men had 1.65 times the odds for IgG seropositivity as women (95% CI 1.01-2.73), and highly educated participants had 1.83 times the odds (95% CI 1.10-3.14) as participants with an intermediate level of education. We found no statistically significant link between age, sex, or education and IgM seropositivity. Our weighted and age-standardized IgG seroprevalence was comparable to the preceding serosurvey German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults (DEGS) for NRW. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that increasing age and male sex are associated with increased odds for IgG seropositivity and provide evidence for increased seropositivity in the highly educated group. B. burgdorferi s.l. seropositivity remained constant over the past decade in this regional German population.
OBJECTIVE: Incidence of early-onset type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been increasing worldwide. Only few studies examined the relationship between geographical environmental variation and T1D incidence or its presymptomatic stage of islet autoimmunity. Our study aimed to investigate the effect of long-term environmental exposures during pregnancy and early life on childhood islet autoimmunity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used data from the Fr1da cohort study which screened children aged 1.75-5.99 years for multiple islet autoantibodies in Bavaria, Germany between 2015 and 2019. We included 85,251 children with valid residential information. Daily averages for particulate matter with a diameter <2.5 μm, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, air temperature, and greenness were averaged for each zip-code or directly assigned to the addresses. The exposure windows included pregnancy, the first year and the first two years of life. Generalized additive models adjusting for individual and socioeconomic variables were used to investigate associations between environmental exposures and islet autoimmunity development. RESULTS: Islet autoimmunity was diagnosed in 272 children. Colder air temperature during pregnancy was associated with developing islet autoimmunity at the address (per 2.2 °C decrease, Odds ratio (OR): 1.49; 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.21-1.83) and zip-code level (per 2.4 °C decrease, OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.08-1.59). Using the addresses, significant associations were also observed during the first years of life. CONCLUSION: In this study, children's residential exposure to lower levels of air temperature during pregnancy and early life increased the risk of islet autoimmunity before the age of six.
Higher incidences of asthma during thunderstorms can pose a serious health risk. In this study, we estimate the thunderstorm asthma risk using statistical methods, with special focus on Bavaria, Southern Germany. In this approach, a dataset of asthma-related emergency cases for the study region is combined with meteorological variables and aeroallergen data to identify statistical relationships between the occurrence of asthma (predictand) and different environmental parameters (set of predictors). On the one hand, the results provide evidence for a weak but significant relationship between atmospheric stability indices and asthma emergencies in the region, but also show that currently thunderstorm asthma is not a major concern in Bavaria due to overall low incidences. As thunderstorm asthma can have severe consequences for allergic patients, the presented approach can be important for the development of emergency strategies in regions affected by thunderstorm asthma and under present and future climate change conditions.
Climate change (CC) is adversely affecting human health and will become far more dangerous in the future, if no substantial measures are taken. Young people in particular are taking an energetic stand for CC awareness. Some CC experts argue that medical doctors are especially well positioned to inform about the impact of CC on public health, as it is well established that they are among the most trusted members of society. However, medical doctors seem to be unsure of their role in addressing CC. This study aimed to investigate future doctors´, i.e., final year medical students´ (FYMS), attitudes towards CC and their personal role in CC education and health care. A questionnaire was developed to examine (1) the expected consequences of CC for FYMS, (2) their perceived individual responsibility, and their attitudes towards an additional (3) professional responsibility. To examine the climate-questionnaire’s component correlations, we ran a factor analysis using oblique (promax) rotation and conducted a one-way ANOVA with repeated measures to compare the mean scores of the factors. Data are presented as mean ± SD or percentage, as appropriate. n = 65 FYMS (response rate: 87%) were participating and all of them completed the questionnaire. Items of the factor professional responsibility showed the lowest level of agreement (47.2 ± 21.2), while the 2 other factors showed higher levels of agreement (expected consequences (75.6 ± 18.4), individual responsibility (75.1 ± 20.6). Future doctors at Heidelberg University Hospital are well-informed about the expected health consequences of CC. They recognize human contributions to CC and make personal decisions to mitigate the impact. However, the opinion that they have a professional responsibility as physicians to patients or society in regard to CC is weaker. Specific teaching could help to change the way future doctors see their role and responsibility in tackling CC.
BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to describe and analyse the most severe casualties from the flash flood and mudslides occurring on 14 July 2021 in Germany, focusing on patients who were treated in the closest and largest level I trauma centre in the region the disaster occurred. METHODS: A single-centre retrospective study design was employed, and all patients treated because of the flooding and mudslides who needed inpatient treatment were documented. Data on each patient’s demographic characteristics, type of injury, number of surgeries, duration of hospitalisation, operation time, revision rate, injury severity score (ISS), and complications were collected. The primary outcome measure was status at discharge. RESULTS: Within the first week after the flood, a total of 63 patients were documented. Forty-one patients were treated on an outpatient basis in the emergency unit, and 22 patients were hospitalised. Of those hospitalised, 15 patients needed surgical treatment in the operation theatre. The most common injuries were fractures of the lower extremity (n = 7) and soft tissue wounds (n = 4). Overall, 20 surgeries were performed; the mean hospital stay was 7.2 ± 6.4 days, and the mean ISS was 5.7 ± 2.7. CONCLUSION: The July 2021 flood disaster was one of the largest in German history. The included patients showed complex injuries of various types. Because of the effects of climate change, orthopaedic surgeons might face higher numbers of casualties affected by natural disasters. Learning more about the management and profile of these injuries can become a future challenge for orthopaedic and trauma surgeons.
OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to clarify the level and the correlates of climate anxiety in Germany. STUDY DESIGN: This was a quota-based online survey. METHODS: We used data collected in mid-March 2022 from a sample of the general adult population (n = 3091 individuals aged 18-74 years; March 2022). Climate anxiety was quantified using the Climate Anxiety Scale (ranging from 1 to 7, with higher scores corresponding to higher levels of climate anxiety). RESULTS: The average level of climate anxiety in Germany was 2.0 (standard deviation [SD]: 1.2). It differed between subgroups (e.g. individuals aged 18-29 years: 2.4, SD: 1.3; individuals aged 65-74 years: 1.8, SD: 1.0). Log-linear regressions showed that climate anxiety was higher among younger individuals (β = -0.005, P < .001), full-time employed individuals (compared with retired individuals, β = 0.07, P < .01), individuals without chronic conditions (compared with individuals with at least one chronic conditions, β = -0.08, P < .001), individuals already vaccinated against COVID-19 (compared with individuals not vaccinated against COVID-19, β = 0.10, P < .001), individuals with higher levels of coronavirus anxiety (β = 0.06, P < .001), and individuals with greater fear of a conventional war (β = 0.09, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a rather low level of climate anxiety. It also revealed some correlates of greater climate anxiety such as higher levels of coronavirus anxiety or greater fear of war. Knowledge about the correlates may assist in addressing individuals at risk for high levels of climate anxiety.
Flash floods are a worldwide threat to humans, which is why they are being intensively studied using historical event records. As measurements and event data increase, databases are becoming increasingly important for flash flood research. However, the recent literature on flood databases lacks technical details as well as discussions about a suitable database design for scientific investigations. In this paper, we thus show how an event database for the investigation of heavy rain-induced flood occurrences can be created. Based on the HiOS dataset (a German dataset with similar to 23,800 flash flood and pluvial flood events), we exemplify the database design and explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of floods caused by heavy rain in Germany. We outline all aspects relevant to database setup: from database requirements and system architecture through table and attribute design to a key and relationship definition. Furthermore, we clarify why a spatial database with interfaces for GIS softwares should be chosen, why a damage-based event definition is preferable to a hydrometeorological definition, and how table attributes support differentiated analyses. By means of the database, we investigated frequency, temporal evolution, spatial distribution and patterns, fatalities and injuries, as well as the seasonality of heavy rain-induced floods in Germany. The results indicate that floods caused by heavy rain occur throughout Germany but with a tendency toward fewer events in the northern direction. Across the country, we identified seven hot spots in urbanized and mountainous regions. Although heavy rain-induced floods in Germany take place mostly between noon and late afternoon, most people are injured and killed in events starting in the evening. Our investigation indicates an increased incidence of flash flood and pluvial flood-related injuries and fatalities in the identified hot spots. Overall, we observe a pronounced summer seasonality of the heavy rain-induced flood events. This study highlights the importance of event databases for flash flood research and advances our understanding of heavy rain-induced flood occurrences in Germany.
With climate change and socioeconomic trends expected to exacerbate the risk of urban heat stress, implementing adaptation measures is paramount to limit adverse impacts of heat on urban inhabitants. Identification of the best options needs to be based on sound, localised assessments of risk, understood as the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Yet a review of the literature reveals that minimal research to date considers the perceived impacts of heat among urban residents. Based on a household survey in Bonn, Germany, this paper adopts an integrated approach to assess how different socioeconomic groups are affected by heat stress and explores the connections between perceived impacts of heat and indicators of exposure and vulnerability across groups. Results indicate that all socioeconomic groups are at risk of urban heat stress, though to differing extents and for different reasons. Exposure was found to be lowest in groups typically considered to be of higher risk, such as older respondents, who at the same time have the highest susceptibility. Students and other younger respondents, on the other hand, face comparably high exposure and have the lowest coping and adaptive capacities. At the same time, each group has its own capacities with the potential to mitigate risk. The study shows that urban inhabitants beyond “classic risk groups” usually addressed in literature and policy are affected by heat stress in ways that may not be accounted for in current urban policy.
Heat waves associated with global warming are a significant hazard to human health, and they particularly endanger low-income households. In this study, we systematically analyze how the different components of heat vulnerability are related to household income, and present empirical evidence on the determinants of heat adaptation, focusing on the role of income. We contribute the first empirical analysis of heat vulnerability using household-level data at the national level, based on a longitudinal survey, including data points for 10,226 households in Germany in the period 2012-2020. Our results indicate that low income households are significantly more heat sensitive and have lower adaptive capacity than high income households, measured inter alia by health status, household composition, and economic and psychological resources to implement adaptation measures. However, heat hazard and exposure levels are comparable between income groups, hence there is no sorting of richer households into less hazardous or exposed locations on a national scale. We also contribute robust empirical evidence on the factors influencing household decisions to implement technical adaptation measures (e.g. installation of air conditioning), ultimately showing that the adaptation behavior of the most vulnerable households (e.g. people with poor health conditions or the elderly) is not limited by financial constraints.
The juxtaposition of climate change and development changes is vital for understanding the future impacts of heat stress in urban areas. However, an approach that considers the relationship between climatic factors and socio-economic vulnerability in a forward-looking and stakeholder-involved manner is challenging. This article demonstrates the application of a future-oriented vulnerability scenarios approach to address human heat stress in Bonn, Germany, in 2035. The study highlights the interplays between climate trajectories and heat exposure associated with urban development scenario corridors. Moreover, this method allows for changing combinations of intersections and conditionalities of projected individual socio-economic vulnerability indicators in response to social and climate governance. However, this study found that a conventional structure within city departments might limit this integrative approach in practice. Thus, the theoretical background and the concept of alternative futures and uncertainties should be the focus of communication with practitioners to maximize the utilization of the results.
The transdisciplinary project “Heat-Health Action Plan for Elderly People in Cologne” addresses the most heat-vulnerable risk group, people over 65 years of age. A quantitative study aimed to better understand heat perception and coping strategies of elderly people during heat waves to inform heat-health action plans. We conducted a representative quantitative survey via structured interviews with 258 randomly chosen people over 65 years old, living in their own homes in four areas of Cologne, Germany. These areas varied, both in terms of social status and heat strain. Data regarding demographics, health status, coping strategies, and heat perception were collected in personal interviews from August to October 2019. The majority of the participants perceived heat strain as moderate to very challenging. Women, people with a lower monthly income, and those with a lower health status found the heat more challenging. We found that participants adapted to heat with a number of body-related, home-protective, and activity-related coping strategies. The number of coping strategies was associated with perceived personal heat strain. There is a definite underuse of water-related heat adaption strategies among the elderly. This is of increasing relevance, as rising heat impact will lead to more heat-related geriatric morbidity. Our results are seminal to inform elderly-specific, socio-adapted local heat-health action plans.
BACKGROUND: 2018-2020 were unusually warm years in Germany, and the summer of 2018 was the second warmest summer since record-keeping began in 1881. Higher temperatures regularly lead to increased mortality, particularly among the elderly. METHODS: We used weekly data on all-cause mortality and mean temperature from the period 1992-2021 and estimated the number of heat-related deaths in all of Germany, and in the northern, central, and southern regions of Germany, employing a generalized additive model (GAM). To characterize long-term trends, we compared the effect of heat on mortality over the decades. RESULTS: Our estimate reveals that the unusually high summer temperatures in Germany between 2018 and 2020 led to a statistically significant number of deaths in all three years. There were approximately 8700 heat-related deaths in 2018, 6900 in 2019, and 3700 in 2020. There was no statistically significant heat-related increase in deaths in 2021. A comparison of the past three decades reveals a slight overall decline in the effect of high temperatures on mortality. CONCLUSION: Although evidence suggests that there has been some adaptation to heat over the years, the data from 2018-2020 in particular show that heat events remain a significant threat to human health in Germany.
Greening and green regeneration have been developed as a major strategy for improving quality of life in cities and neighbourhoods. Greening policies and projects are being applied at both the citywide and the neigh-bourhood level for various reasons, such as adaptation to climate change and the improvement of housing and living conditions as well as wellbeing and health. Urban policies, plans, and programmes have increasingly employed greening strategies to make urban neighbourhoods more attractive, to improve quality of life, and to provide residents with recreational space. At the same time, greening is increasingly “exploited” by market -oriented regeneration and construction strategies. The new critical debates on eco-gentrification-or distribu-tional, procedural, and interactional injustices-are discussing emerging conflicts or trade-offs between green regeneration and the social or housing market impacts, as well as analysing the role of greening and green regeneration with respect to the (re)production of socio-spatial inequalities and injustices.Set against this background, our paper provides a comparative analysis of two cases-L acute accent odz acute accent Stare Polesie (Poland) and Leipzig’s inner east (Germany)-and has a threefold purpose: first, it seeks to analyse in-terconnections between greening policies and justice concerns. To operationalise the aforementioned in-terconnections, we will, second, develop an operational model that looks at interconnections as a process and applies a justice perspective that focuses on a multidimensional, intersectional, relational, and context-and policy-sensitive understanding of justice. Third, the paper seeks to detect how a contrasting comparison can help us to come to a better and more comprehensive understanding of the interconnections between green regen-eration and justice. The study itself builds on primary research about the two cases from earlier projects.
As climate change progresses, it is causing more frequent and severe heat waves, resulting in higher indoor temperatures. Various temperature thresholds for indicating indoor overheating have been proposed in different contexts, extending from reduced comfort in buildings to subjective heat stress and onset of first or serious health problems. This study reviews these thresholds and identifies threshold values for subjective heat stress of occupants in the city of Augsburg, Germany, distinguishing between vulnerable and non-vulnerable households. Survey data from 427 private households are analysed using unpaired analysis of variances (ANOVA), t-tests and regression analysis to identify factors related to subjective heat stress at home during night-time. The findings imply that health implications during heat waves, age, local climate zones favouring the urban heat island effect and higher indoor temperature represent significant factors for subjective heat stress. A significant difference in subjective heat stress among different groups related to temperature could be identified for thresholds of 24.8 degrees C (people living alone) and 26.7 degrees C (people with chronic disease). As WHO threshold for health risk from overheating is 24 degrees C, people are apparently at heat-related risk without feeling that they are at risk, especially when they have chronic diseases; thus they may not see the urgency of taking adaptation measures.
Background: Tickborne-encephalitis (TBE) is a potentially life-threating neurological disease that is mainly transmitted by ticks. The goal of the present study is to analyze the potential uniform environmental patterns of the identified TBEV microfoci in Germany. The results are used to calculate probabilities for the present distribution of TBEV microfoci in Germany based on a geostatistical model. Methods: We aim to consider the specification of environmental characteristics of locations of TBEV microfoci detected in Germany using open access epidemiological, geographical and climatological data sources. We use a two-step geostatistical approach, where in a first step, the characteristics of a broad set of environmental variables between the 56 TBEV microfoci and a control or comparator set of 3575 sampling points covering Germany are compared using Fisher’s Exact Test. In the second step, we select the most important variables, which are then used in a MaxEnt distribution model to calculate a high resolution (400 × 400 m) probability map for the presence of TBEV covering the entire area of Germany. Results: The findings from the MaxEnt prediction model indicate that multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27.0%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the highest contribution to our model. These two variables are followed by four additional variables with a lower, but still important, explanatory influence: Land cover classes (19.6%), multi annual minimum air temperature (14.9%), multi annual sunshine duration (9.0%), and distance to coniferous and mixed forest border (7.0%). Conclusions: Our findings are based on defined TBEV microfoci with known histories of infection and the repeated confirmation of the virus in the last years, resulting in an in-depth high-resolution model/map of TBEV microfoci in Germany. Multi annual actual evapotranspiration (27%) and multi annual hot days (22.5%) have the most explanatory power in our model. The results may be used to tailor specific regional preventive measures and investigations.
BackgroundVibrio spp. are aquatic bacteria that prefer warm seawater with moderate salinity. In humans, they can cause gastroenteritis, wound infections, and ear infections. During the summers of 2018 and 2019, unprecedented high sea surface temperatures were recorded in the German Baltic Sea.AimWe aimed to describe the clinical course and microbiological characteristics of Vibrio infections in Germany in 2018 and 2019.MethodsWe performed an observational retrospective multi-centre cohort study of patients diagnosed with domestically-acquired Vibrio infections in Germany in 2018 and 2019. Demographic, clinical, and microbiological data were assessed, and isolates were subjected to whole genome sequencing and antimicrobial susceptibility testing.ResultsOf the 63 patients with Vibrio infections, most contracted the virus between June and September, primarily in the Baltic Sea: 44 (70%) were male and the median age was 65 years (range: 2-93 years). Thirty-eight patients presented with wound infections, 16 with ear infections, six with gastroenteritis, two with pneumonia (after seawater aspiration) and one with primary septicaemia. The majority of infections were attributed to V. cholerae (non-O1/non-O139) (n = 30; 48%) or V. vulnificus (n = 22; 38%). Phylogenetic analyses of 12 available isolates showed clusters of three identical strains of V. vulnificus, which caused wound infections, suggesting that some clonal lines can spread across the Baltic Sea.ConclusionsDuring the summers of 2018 and 2019, severe heatwaves facilitated increased numbers of Vibrio infections in Germany. Since climate change is likely to favour the proliferation of these bacteria, a further increase in Vibrio-associated diseases is expected.
BACKGROUND: In the face of ongoing climate warming, vector-borne diseases are expected to increase in Europe, including tick-borne diseases (TBD). The most abundant tick-borne diseases in Germany are Tick-Borne Encephalitis (TBE) and Lyme Borreliosis (LB), with Ixodes ricinus as the main vector. METHODS: In this study, we display and compare the spatial and temporal patterns of reported cases of human TBE and LB in relation to some associated factors. The comparison may help with the interpretation of observed spatial and temporal patterns. RESULTS: The spatial patterns of reported TBE cases show a clear and consistent pattern over the years, with many cases in the south and only few and isolated cases in the north of Germany. The identification of spatial patterns of LB disease cases is more difficult due to the different reporting practices in the individual federal states. Temporal patterns strongly fluctuate between years, and are relatively synchronized between both diseases, suggesting common driving factors. Based on our results we found no evidence that weather conditions affect the prevalence of both diseases. Both diseases show a gender bias with LB bing more commonly diagnosed in females, contrary to TBE being more commonly diagnosed in males. CONCLUSION: For a further investigation of of the underlying driving factors and their interrelations, longer time series as well as standardised reporting and surveillance system would be required.
BACKGROUND: Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is the most important tick-borne viral disease in Eurasia and causes disease in humans and in a number of animals, among them dogs and horses. There is still no good correlation between tick numbers, weather conditions and human cases. There is the hypothesis that co-feeding due to simultaneous occurrence of larvae and nymphs may be a factor for the increased transmission of the virus in nature and for human disease. Based on long-term data from a natural TBEV focus, phylogenetic results and meteorological data we sought to challenge this hypothesis. METHODS: Ticks from an identified TBE natural focus were sampled monthly from 04/2009 to 12/2018. Ticks were identified and pooled. Pools were tested by RT-qPCR. Positive pools were confirmed by virus isolation and/or sequencing of additional genes (E gene, NS2 gene). Temperature data such as the decadal (10-day) mean daily maximum air temperature (DMDMAT) were obtained from a nearby weather station and statistical correlations between tick occurrence and minimal infection rates (MIR) were calculated. RESULTS: In the study period from 04/2009 to 12/2018 a total of 15,530 ticks (2,226 females, 2,268 males, 11,036 nymphs) were collected. The overall MIR in nymphs over the whole period was 77/15,530 (0.49%), ranging from 0.09% (2009) to 1.36% (2015). The overall MIR of female ticks was 0.76% (17/2,226 ticks), range 0.14% (2013) to 3.59% (2016). The overall MIR of males was 0.57% (13/2,268 ticks), range from 0.26% (2009) to 0.97% (2015). The number of nymphs was statistically associated with a later start of spring/vegetation period, indicated by the onset of forsythia flowering. CONCLUSION: There was no particular correlation between DMDMAT dynamics in spring and/or autumn and the MIR of nymphs or adult ticks detected. However, there was a positive correlation between the number of nymphs and the number of reported human TBE cases in the following months, but not in the following year. The hypothesis of the importance of co-feeding of larvae and nymphs for the maintenance of transmission cycle of TBEV in nature is not supported by our findings.
COVID-19 pandemic continues to obstruct social lives and the world economy other than questioning the healthcare capacity of many countries. Weather components recently came to notice as the northern hemisphere was hit by escalated incidence in winter. This study investigated the association between COVID-19 cases and two components, average temperature and relative humidity, in the 16 states of Germany. Three main approaches were carried out in this study, namely temporal correlation, spatial auto-correlation, and clustering-integrated panel regression. It is claimed that the daily COVID-19 cases correlate negatively with the average temperature and positively with the average relative humidity. To extract the spatial auto-correlation, both global Moran’s [Formula: see text] and global Geary’s [Formula: see text] were used whereby no significant difference in the results was observed. It is evident that randomness overwhelms the spatial pattern in all the states for most of the observations, except in recent observations where either local clusters or dispersion occurred. This is further supported by Moran’s scatter plot, where states’ dynamics to and fro cold and hot spots are identified, rendering a traveling-related early warning system. A random-effects model was used in the sense of case-weather regression including incidence clustering. Our task is to perceive which ranges of the incidence that are well predicted by the existing weather components rather than seeing which ranges of the weather components predicting the incidence. The proposed clustering-integrated model associated with optimal barriers articulates the data well whereby weather components outperform lag incidence cases in the prediction. Practical implications based on marginal effects follow posterior to model diagnostics.
This study examines whether climate change-associated environmental stressors, including air and noise pollution, local heat levels, as well as a lack of surrounding greenspace, mediate the effects of local poverty on mental health, using the 28-item General Health Questionnaire. We recruited 478 adults who were representative of eleven of Berlin’s inner-city neighborhoods. The relationship of individual-level variables, neighborhood-level sociodemographic and environmental data from the Berlin Senate (Department for Urban Development, Building and Housing) to mental health was assessed in a multilevel model using SPSS. We found that neither local exposure to environmental stressors, nor available greenspace as a protective factor, mediated the effects of local poverty on variance in mental health (all p values > 0.2). However, surrounding greenspace (r = -0.24, p < 0.001), nitrogen dioxide levels (r = 0.10, p < 0.05), noise pollution (rho = 0.15, p < 0.01), and particle pollution (r = 0.12, p < 0.001) were associated with local poverty, which, more strongly than individual factors, accounted for variance in mental health (β = 0.47, p < 0.001). Our analysis indicates that the effects of local poverty on mental health are not mediated by environmental factors. Instead, local poverty was associated with both an increased mental health burden and the exposure to climate-related environmental stressors.
BACKGROUND: The chronic effects of ozone have only rarely been investigated in disease burden studies to date. Our goal was to determine this disease burden in Germany over the period 2007-2016, with particular attention to estimation based on effect estimates adjusted for particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). METHODS: The nationwide, high-spatial-resolution (2 km × 2 km), population-based exposure to ozone in the summer months (“summer ozone”) was calculated on the basis of modeled ozone data and population counts in Germany. Next, risk estimates derived from cohort studies were used to quantify the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data on population counts, life expectancy, and mortality in Germany were used to reflect the situation across the country as accurately as possible. RESULTS: The estimates of years of life lost (YLL) due to summer ozone ranged from 18.33 per 100 000 people (95% confidence interval [14.02; 22.08]) in 2007 to 35.77 per 100 000 people [27.45; 42.98] in 2015. These findings indicate that ozone affects the COPD burden independently of other harmful components of the air. No clear secular trend in the COPD burden can be seen over the period 2007 to 2016. CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to ozone contributes to the COPD burden among the general population in Germany. As climate change may lead to a rise in the ozone concentration, more intensive research is required on the effects of ozone on health.
While many authors have described the adverse health effects of poor air quality and meteorological extremes, there remain inconsistencies on a regional scale as well as uncertainty about the single and joint effects of atmospheric predictors. In this context, we investigated the short-term impacts of weather and air quality on moderate extreme cancer-related mortality events for the urban area of Augsburg, Southern Germany, during the period 2000-2017. First, single effects were uncovered by applying a case-crossover routine. The overall impact was assessed by performing a Mann-Whitney U testing scheme. We then compared the results of this procedure to extreme noncancer-related mortality events. In a second step, we found periods with contemporaneous significant predictors and carried out an in-depth analysis of these joint-effect periods. We were interested in the atmospheric processes leading to the emergence of significant conditions. Hence, we applied the Principal Component Analysis to large-scale synoptic conditions during these periods. The results demonstrate a strong linkage between high-mortality events in cancer patients and significantly above-average levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) and particulate matter (PM(2.5)) during the late winter through spring period. These were mainly linked to northerly to easterly weak airflow under stable, high-pressure conditions. Especially in winter and spring, this can result in low temperatures and a ground-level increase and the accumulation of air pollution from heating and traffic as well as eastern lateral advection of polluted air. Additionally, above-average temperatures were shown to occur on the days before mortality events from mid-summer through fall, which was also caused by high-pressure conditions with weak wind flow and intense solar radiation. Our approach can be used to analyse medical data with epidemiological as well as climatological methods while providing a more vivid representation of the underlying atmospheric processes.C
Flowering and pollen seasons are sensitive to environmental variability and are considered climate change indicators. However, it has not been concluded to what extent flowering phenology is indeed reflected in airborne pollen season locally. The aim of this study was to investigate, for the commonly represented in temperate climates and with highly allergenic pollen Betula pendula Roth, the responsiveness of flowering to different environmental regimes and also to check for commensurate changes in the respective pollen seasons. The region of Augsburg, Bavaria, Germany, was initially screened for birch trees, which were geolocated at a radius of 25 km. Random trees across the city were then investigated during three full flowering years, 2015-2017. Flowering observations were made 3-7 times a week, from flower differentiation to flower desiccation, in a total of 43 plant individuals. Data were regressed against meteorological parameters and air pollutant levels in an attempt to identify the driving factors of flowering onset and offset. Flowering dates were compared with dates of the related airborne pollen seasons per taxon; airborne pollen monitoring took place daily using a Hirst-type volumetric sampler. The salient finding was that flowering occurred earlier during warmer years; it also started earlier at locations with higher urbanity, and peaked and ended earlier at sites with higher NO(2) concentrations. Airborne pollen season of Betula spp. frequently did not coincide locally with the flowering period of Betula pendula: while flowering and pollen season were synchronized particularly in their onset, local flowering phenology alone could explain only 57.3% of the pollen season variability. This raises questions about the relationship between flowering times and airborne pollen seasons and on the rather underestimated role of the long-distance transport of pollen.
Purpose: Climate models predict an increase in frequency and intensity of flood disasters that have the potential to affect human health due to immediate traumatic experiences or long-term secondary stressors. However, only few studies examined the longitudinal course of mental health after floods and those who do lack an inclusion of physical health and evaluation of effective interventions to mitigate adverse health effects. Methods: A longitudinal field study with 3 waves covering a time span of 12 months was conducted in beneficiaries of the Malteser Aid Service (MAS) psycho-social support program after the 2013 flood disaster in Germany. Participants received a self-report questionnaire to inquire mental and physical health parameters. A crosssectional survey in flood-affected but unsupported individuals was conducted as an approximate control group and to specify the characteristics of help seekers to relief organizations. Results: Participants exhibited elevated screening rates of depression (50.3%), post-traumatic stress (35.5%) and reduced physical health-related quality of life (63.1%) with an overall significant improvement of mental health parameters over time. The control group reported lower rates of depression and post-traumatic stress compared to the MAS group. Financial support and supportive counseling were associated with reduced mental health strain and counteracted established vulnerability factors. Conclusion: Selected and targeted psycho-social interventions have the potential to improve mental health and health-related quality of life in flood victims. Results may inform the development of structured education programs for volunteer and professional staff of relief organizations to promote effective psycho-social support measures and improve post-disaster support.
Airborne allergenic pollen impact the health of a great part of the global population. Under climate change conditions, the abundance of airborne pollen has been rising dramatically and so is the effect on sensitized individuals. The first line of allergy management is allergen avoidance, which, to date, is by rule achieved via forecasting of daily pollen concentrations. The aim of this study was to elaborate on 3-hourly predictive models, one of the very few to the best of our knowledge, attempting to forecast pollen concentration based on near-real-time automatic pollen measurements. The study was conducted in Augsburg, Germany, during four years (2016-2019) focusing on Betula and Poaceae pollen, the most abundant and allergenic in temperate climates. ARIMA and dynamic regression models were employed, as well as machine learning techniques, viz. artificial neural networks and neural network autoregression models. Air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure, sunshine duration, diffuse radiation, and wind speed were additionally considered for the development of the models. It was found that air temperature and precipitation were the most significant variables for the prediction of airborne pollen concentrations. At such fine temporal resolution, our forecasting models performed well showing their ability to explain most of the variability of pollen concentrations for both taxa. However, predictive power of Betula forecasting model was higher achieving R-2 up to 0.62, whereas Poaceae up to 0.55. Neural autoregression was superior in forecasting Betula pollen concentrations, whereas, for Poaceae, seasonal ARIMA performed best. The good performance of seasonal ARIMA in describing variability of pollen concentrations of both examined taxa suggests an important role of plants’ phenology in observed pollen abundance. The present study provides novel insight on per-hour forecasts to be used in real-time mobile apps by pollen allergic patients. Despite the huge need for real-time, short-term predictions for everyday clinical practice, extreme weather events, like in the year 2019 in our case, still comprise an obstacle toward highly performing forecasts at such fine timescales, highlighting that there is still a way to go to this direction.
BACKGROUND: Climate change and increasing risks of extreme weather events affect human health and lead to changes in the emergency department (ED) admissions and the emergency medical services (EMS) operations. For a better allocation of resources in the healthcare system, it is essential to predict ED numbers based on environmental variables. This publication aims to quantify weather, air pollution and calendar-related effects on daily ED admissions. METHODS: Analyses were based on 575,725 admissions from the web-based IVENA system recording all patients in the greater Munich area with pre-hospital emergency care in ambulance operations during 2014-2018. Linear models were used to identify statistically significant associations between daily ED admissions and calendar, meteorological and pollution factors, allowing for lag effects of one to three days. Separate analyses were performed for seasons, with additional subset analyses by sex, age and surgical versus internal department. RESULTS: ED admissions were exceptionally high during the three-week Oktoberfest, particularly for males and on the weekends, as well as during the New Year holiday. Admissions significantly increased during the years of study, decreased in spring and summer holidays, and were lower on Sundays while higher on Mondays. In the warmer seasons, admissions were significantly associated with higher temperature, adjusting for the effects of sunshine and humidity in all age groups except for the elderly. Adverse weather conditions in non-summer seasons were either linked to increasing ED admissions (from storms, gust) or decreasing them from rain. Mostly, but not exclusively, in winter, increasing ED admissions were associated with colder minimum temperatures as well as with higher NO and PM(10) concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to standard calendar-related factors, incorporating seasonal weather, air pollutant and interactions with patient demographics into resource planning models can improve the daily allocation of resources and staff of EMS operations at hospital and city levels.
Non-optimum ambient temperature has been associated with a variety of health outcomes in the elderly population. However, few studies have examined its adverse effects on neurocognitive function. In this study, we explored the temperature-cognition association in elderly women. We investigated 777 elderly women from the German SALIA cohort during the 2007-2010 follow-up. Cognitive function was evaluated using the CERAD-Plus test battery. Modelled data on daily weather conditions were assigned to the residential addresses. The temperature-cognition association over lag 0-10 days was estimated using multivariable regression with distributed lag non-linear model. The daily mean temperature ranged between -6.7 and 26.0 °C during the study period for the 777 participants. We observed an inverse U-shaped association in elderly women, with the optimum temperature (15.3 °C) located at the 68th percentile of the temperature range. The average z-score of global cognitive function declined by -0.31 (95%CI: 0.73, 0.11) for extreme cold (the 2.5th percentile of temperature range) and -0.92 (95%CI: 1.50, -0.33) for extreme heat (the 97.5th percentile of temperature range), in comparison to the optimum temperature. Episodic memory was more sensitive to heat exposure, while semantic memory and executive function were the two cognitive domains sensitive to cold exposure. Individuals living in an urban area and those with a low educational level were particularly sensitive to extreme heat. In summary, non-optimum temperature was inversely associated with cognitive function in elderly women, with the effect size for heat exposure particularly substantial. The strength of association varied by cognitive domains and individual characteristics.
Ticks may transmit a variety of human and animal pathogens. Prevalence of Borrelia spp., Rickettsia spp. and Anaplasma phagocytophilum in ticks has been monitored in the city of Hanover, Germany, since 2005. However, to determine the infection risk for humans and animals, not only pathogen prevalence, but also tick abundance and seasonality need to be taken into account. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate tick abundance at ten different collection sites in the city of Hanover, Germany. Collection of questing ticks was performed by the flagging method in the first and second half of each month during the tick season (April-October) in 2017 and 2018. At each 200 m² collection site, one of four 50 m² fields was sampled per visit on a rotational basis, resulting in 100 m² sampled per month. In addition, data on weather conditions, near-ground temperature, relative humidity and vegetation composition were noted at each collection event. In 2017, a total of 1770 ticks were collected, while 1866 ticks were collected in 2018. Ixodes ricinus was the most prevalent species (97.0 % of all ticks, 98.0 % of nymphs, 91.6 % of adults) followed by I. inopinatus (2.3 % of all ticks, 1.1 % of nymphs, 8.0 % of adults), I. frontalis (0.6 % of all ticks, 0.6 % of nymphs, 0.3 % of adults) and I. hexagonus (0.03 % of all ticks, 0.03 % of nymphs, 0.0 % of adults). Using generalized linear mixed modeling, density of I. ricinus and I. inopinatus in 2017 was significantly higher than in 2018. Regarding different landscape types, ticks were significantly more abundant in mixed forests than in parks, with more than 50 ticks/100 m² on average in both years. In urban parks, average tick density amounted to 15 ticks/100 m² in 2017 and 11 ticks/100 m² in 2018 and in broad-leaved forests average tick density was 13 and 18 ticks/100 m² in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Tick density showed a marked peak in June 2017 and in May 2018 at most sites, whereas a less pronounced peak was recognizable in September. Tick density varied considerably between collection sites. However, no statistically significant effect of (micro-)climatic variables, including near-ground temperature, relative humidity and saturation deficit, was found. Thus, further factors, such as the abundance of wildlife hosts, need to be considered in future studies to explain the differences between collection sites.
During intense heat episodes, the human population suffers from an increased morbidity and mortality. In order to minimize such negative health impacts, the general public and the public health authorities are informed and warned by means of an advanced procedure known as a “heat health warning system” (HHWS). It is aimed at triggering interventions and at taking preventive measures. The HHWS in Germany has been in operation since 2005. The present work is aimed at showing the updated structure of an advanced HHWS that has been developed further several times during its 15 years of operation. This is to impart knowledge to practitioners about the concept of the system. In Germany, dangerous heat episodes are predicted on the basis of the numerical weather forecast. The perceived temperature as an appropriate thermal index is calculated and used to assess the levels of heat stress. The thermo-physiologically based procedure contains variable thresholds taking into account the short time acclimatization of the people. The forecast system further comprises the nocturnal indoor conditions, the specific characteristics of the elderly population, and the elevation of a region. The heat warnings are automatically generated, but they are published with possible adjustments and a compulsory confirmation by the biometeorology forecaster. Preliminary studies indicate a reduction in the heat related outcomes. In addition, the extensive duration of the strongest heat wave in summer 2018, which lasted three weeks, highlights the necessity of the HHWS to protect human health and life.
We investigated whether persons with dementia (PwD) are at particular risk of mortality when exposed to extreme temperatures and whether the temperature effect depends on long-term care (LTC) need and residency. German health claims data provide information on inpatient and outpatient sectors. Data from the German Meteorological Service were merged, and measures of immediate and delayed heat, cold, and normal temperature (Heat Index, Wind Chill Temperature Index) were calculated. Cox models were applied to explore the interaction of temperature, dementia, and LTC, as well as residency. Immediate and delayed effects of heat and cold were tested as compared to normal temperatures. Models were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, urban/rural living, and summer/winter climate zones. The 182,384 persons aged >= 65 contributed 1,084,111 person-years and 49,040 deaths between 2004 and 2010. At normal temperatures, PwD had a 37% (p-value < 0.001) increased mortality risk compared to persons without dementia (PwoD). Immediate heat effects further increased this effect by 11% (p = 0.031); no immediate heat effect existed for PwoD. The immediate heat effect was even greater for PwD suffering from severe or extreme physical impairment and for those living in private households and nursing homes. Immediate and delayed cold effects increased mortality independent of dementia. Care level and type of residency did not modify this effect among PwD. PwD revealed an increased vulnerability to immediate heat effects. Cold waves were risk factors for both groups. LTC need appeared to be an important intervening factor.
The rising probability of extremely high temperatures and an increasing number of consecutive hot days caused by climate change-combined with the impact of these high temperatures on human health-is widely discussed in the literature. There are calls for the development of heatwave adaptation measures by governmental and scientific institutions. In this research, the predictors of health-related heat risk perception of urban citizens in Augsburg, Germany, were investigated. An online survey was conducted with 468 citizens, asking about their heat risk perception, knowledge about heat risks, and demographic data and health information. Statistical methods (Spearman correlation, unpaired t-test, ANOVA and multiple regression) were used to determine which factors were significant and relevant. The results show that the knowledge of heat risks, heat risk sensitivity and an external locus of control are the most important factors for heat risk perception. The health implication score and chronic disease show significant effects in descriptive statistics. Furthermore, younger people showed the highest heat risk perception of all age groups. Surprisingly, income, education, living alone and gender did not play a role in heat risk perception. The findings imply a need for better and intensified heat risk communication in urban areas-especially among elderly people-and thus are important for creating acceptance towards heat wave risks, which is a prerequisite of willingness to adapt.
BACKGROUND: As a consequence of global warming, heat waves are expected to become more frequent, more intense, and longer. The elderly and persons with chronic diseases are especially vulnerable to health problems due to heat. This article is devoted to the question of the extent to which the effects of heat waves in Germany are changing over time, and whether preventive health measures are working. METHODS: We use a statistical model to quantify the effect of high mean temperatures on mortality. Within this model, different exposure-response curves for the three temporal intervals 1992-2000, 2001-2010, and 2011-2017 are estimated. Attention is also paid to the delayed effect on mortality of high mean temperatures in the preceding week. RESULTS: Our analysis reveals a clear, systematic association of the mean temperature in the current week, as well as the mean temperature in the preceding week, with weekly mortality. This association is more pronounced for higher age groups and decreases over the years under analysis, with the exception of a relatively weak effect of heat in southern Germany in 1992-2000. The strongest effects were related to the heat waves in 1994 and 2003, with approximately 10 200 and 9600 fatalities, respectively. Approximately 7800 fatalities were estimated for the summer of 2006, and 4700 and 5200 for 2010 and 2015, respectively. CONCLUSION: In Germany, as elsewhere, climate change has been causing more frequent, more intense, and longer periods of heat in the summer. The harmful effect of heat on health is reduced by adaptive processes, presumably including successful preventive measures. Such measures should be extended in the future, and perhaps complemented by other measures in order to further diminish the effect of heat on mortality .
Relationships of larger scale meteorological predictors with ground-level daily maximum ozone (O-3max) and daily maximum air temperature (T-max) for stations in Bavaria were analysed. O-3max and T-max as well as threshold exceedances of these variables were assessed under the constraints of ongoing climate change until the end of the twenty-first century. Under RCP8.5 scenario conditions, a substantial increase of T-max in the months from April to September arose, with a mean value of 5 K in the period 2081-2100 compared with the historical period 1986-2005. Statistical downscaling projections pointed to a mean O-3max rise of 17 mu g/m(3). The frequency of threshold exceedances showed also large changes. Hot days may occur in the future at about 30% of all days. Exceedances of O-3max > 100 mu g/m(3) were projected to increase to about 40% of all days at urban traffic sites and up to about 70% in the rural regional background. Days with O-3max > 120 mu g/m(3) occurred still at about 20% of all days at urban traffic sites and at about 45% in rural regional background locations. With respect to combined T-max > 30 degrees C and O-3max > 100 mu g/m(3) events in the future, an occurrence of such events at about 27-29% of all days in the summer months from April to September was assessed. The increases were mainly associated with the strong temperature rise until the end of the century. In summary, the projected T-max and O-3max changes point to a considerable increased health burden in Bavaria until the end of the century, resulting from strong changes of both variables and their associated individual and combined impact on human health.
Global warming with increasing weather extremes, like heat events, is enhancing impacts to public health. This essay focuses on unusual extreme summer heat extremes occurring in Germany at higher frequency, longer duration, and with new temperature records. Large areas of the country are affected, particularly urban settlements, where about 77% of the population lives, which are exposed to multiple inner-city threats, such as urban heat islands. Because harm to public health is directly released by high ambient air temperatures, local and national studies on heat-related morbidity and mortality indicate that vulnerable groups such as the elderly population are predominantly threatened with heat-related health problems. After the severe mortality impacts of the extreme summer heat 2003 in Europe, in 2008, Germany took up the National Adaptation Strategy on Climate Change to tackle and manage the impacts of weather extremes, for example to protect people’s health against heat. Public health systems and services need to be better prepared to improve resilience to the effects of extreme heat events, e.g., by implementing heat health action plans. Both climate protection as well as adaptation are necessary in order to be able to respond as adequate as possible to the challenges posed by climate change.
Following a distinct summer heat wave, nine autochthonous cases of West Nile fever and West Nile neuroinvasive disease, including one fatality, were observed in Leipzig, Germany, in August and September 2020. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated close relationships in viruses from humans, animals and mosquitos in eastern Germany, obtained during the preceding 2 years. The described large cluster of autochthonous West Nile virus infections in Germany indicates endemic seasonal circulation of lineage 2 viruses in the area.
