Populations in high-density urban areas are exposed to higher levels of heat stress in comparison to rural areas. New spatially explicit approaches that identify highly exposed and vulnerable areas are needed to inform current urban planning practices to cope with heat hazards. This study proposes an extreme heat stress risk index for Dublin city across multiple decades (2020s-2050s) and for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). In order to consider the interactions between greenhouse gas emissions and urban expansion, a climate-based urban land cover classification and a simple climate model have been combined to compute air temperature values accounting for urban heat island effect. This allowed the derivation of an improved hazard indicator in terms of extreme heat stress which, when integrated with information on current levels of vulnerability (i.e., socioeconomic factors assessed using principal component analysis (PCA), provides a heat hazard risk index for Dublin city at a fine spatial scale. Between the 2020s and 2050s, urban areas considered at highest risk are expected to increase by about 70% and 96% under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 respectively. For the 2050s, enhanced levels of heat risk under the RCP 8.5 scenario are particularly visible in the core city centre and in the northern and western suburbs. This study provides a valuable reference for decision makers for urban planning and provides an approach to help prioritise management decisions for the development of heat resilient and sustainable cities.
Public communication on water availability is pivotal in highlighting water conservation needs as droughts impact water resources for critical use, such as drinking water quality and accessibility. This paper presents the results of research into public communication on water availability and the implementation of water conservation measures in the Republic of Ireland. The paper analyses social media (Twitter and Facebook) communication and newspaper publications from 2018 to 2020 on water conservation and drought events, in addition, to undertaking six key stakeholder interviews made up of journalists (n = 4), political representatives (n = 1), and a water and communication expert (n = 1). Our analysis indicates that Irish newspapers’ coverage of drought and water availability was greater in 2018 compared to 2020. Uncertainty and risk was also identified as the prevalent frame, used by newspapers to cover drought events. Although the sentiments in communications on drought by the national utility, Irish Water, were scored as positive (63%), its engagement with the public on social media was considerably limited. Accessible information platforms that provides data and information on water resources were also found; nevertheless, no comprehensive national drought information management system nor national drought plan have been developed. Based on our findings, we demonstrate the need for public engagement and collaborative efforts to communicate drought and water conservation measures led by An Fóram Uisce|The Water Forum. Recommendations made in this study also aim to influence decision-making and awareness among stakeholders regarding drought communication on water conservation and resources availability.
The frequency and severity of flooding events will increase over the coming decades due to global climate change. While close attention has typically been paid to infrastructural and environmental outcomes of flood events, the potential adverse human health consequences associated with post-event consumption from private groundwater sources have received minimal attention, leading to a poor understanding of private well users’ preparedness and the drivers of positive behavioural adoption. The current study sought to quantify the capacity of private well users to cope with flood-triggered contamination risks and identify the social psychological determinants of proactive attitudes in the Republic of Ireland, using a cross-sectional questionnaire incorporating two distinct models of health behaviour, the Health Belief Model and Risk-Attitude-Norms-Ability-Self Regulation model. Adoption of healthy behaviours prior to flooding was evaluated with respect to respondents’ risk exposure, risk experience and risk perception, in addition to systematic supply stewardship under normal conditions. Associations between adoption of protective behaviours and perception, experience and socio-demographic factors were evaluated through multinomial and multiple logistic regressions, while a multi-model inferential approach was employed with the predictors of health behaviour models. Findings suggest that floods are not considered likely to occur, nor were respondents worried about their occurrence, with 72.5% of respondents who reported previous flooding experience failing to adopt protective actions. Prior experience of well water contamination increased adoption of proactive attitudes when flooding occurred (+47%), with a failure to adopt healthy behaviours higher among rural non-agricultural residents (136%). Low levels of preparedness to deal with flood-related contamination risks are a side-effect of the general lack of appropriate well stewardship under normal conditions; just 10.1% of respondents adopted both water treatment and frequent testing, in concurrence with limited risk perception and poor awareness of the nexus between risk factors (e.g. floods, contamination sources) and groundwater quality. Perceived risk, personal norms and social norms were the best predictors of protective behaviour adoption and should be considered when developing future awareness campaigns.
During a 6-week period in November and December 2015, a series of Atlantic Storms swept across the Republic of Ireland (ROI) causing widespread pluvial and fluvial flooding. Flooding was particularly severe in the west and midlands, with rainfall up to 200% above normal in many regions, making it the wettest winter ever recorded. While the infrastructural damage and subsequent costs associated with flood events have, and continue to receive widespread attention, far less coverage is given to the associated adverse human health effects. This is particularly significant in the ROI, which is characterised by the highest crude incidence rates of verotoxigenic E. coli (VTEC) enteritis and cryptosporidiosis in Europe. Accordingly, weekly spatially-referenced infection incidence from July 2015 to June 2016 were employed in concurrence with weekly time-series of cumulative antecedent rainfall, surface water discharge and groundwater level, and high-resolution flood risk mapping. An ensemble of statistical and time-series analyses were used to quantify the influence of flood hydrometeorology on the incidence of confirmed infections. Seasonal decomposition (excluding seasonal patterns and long-term trends) identified a high residual infection peak during April 2016, with space-timing scanning used to identify the location, size and temporal extent of clustering. Excess cases of VTEC enteritis were geographically associated with the midlands, while cryptosporidiosis clusters were widespread. Generalised linear modelling of infection locations show that areas with a surface water body exhibited significantly higher incidence rates for both VTEC (OR: 1.225; p < 0.001) and cryptosporidiosis (OR: 1.363; p < 0.001). ARIMA models show a clear association between rainfall, surface water discharge, groundwater levels and infection incidence, with lagged associations from 16 to 20 weeks particularly strong, thus indicating a link between infection peaks (April 2016) and the flood event which began approximately 18 weeks earlier. All three hydrometeorological variables were associated with the increase in cryptosporidiosis during April 2016, while only surface water discharge was associated with VTEC enteritis. Study findings may be employed for improved risk communication, risk management and surveillance to safeguard public health after large hydrometeorological events.
BACKGROUND: In Ireland, rising temperatures remains the climate projection that national climate scientists associate with the highest degree of confidence. However, the health challenge of heat has been largely absent from Ireland’s public health sector. This is epitomised by the lack of a comprehensive public health-focused heat-health action plan or country-specific codes of practice for heat-health when working outdoors. Our objective is to highlight the anticipated heat-health challenges in Ireland, and other temperate regions, through analysing vulnerable groups and systems, reinforcing the need to respond. METHODS: A scoping literature review was conducted to determine how heat affects health of the vulnerable in temperate climatic regions, with a focus on Ireland. Additionally, national Google Trends data was coarsely analysed to determine whether heat is a growing societal concern. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: The heat-vulnerable include: older people; chronically ill; infants, pregnant women, children; outdoor workers; socio-economically disadvantaged; urban dwellers; food systems and the health sector. Google Trends data suggest an increase in heat-related health searches over time, demonstrating rising levels of concern to temperature increases, reinforcing a gap in national policy associated with communication of, and response to, the heat-health challenge. Specific, actionable recommendations for adaptation and mitigation strategies are proposed. CONCLUSION: Heat poses a public and occupational health challenge, receiving limited attention in Ireland. Lack of a co-ordinated effort, places vulnerable populations at risk. Our recommendations, with reference to vulnerable groups and acknowledging the multi-sectoral nature of heat-health and climate change, advocate for the adoption of a “health and climate change in all policies” approach and the development of a public health-focused heat-health action plan.
