In the context of recent climate change, temperature-attributable mortality has become an important public health threat worldwide. A large number of studies in Europe have identified a relationship between temperature and mortality, while only a limited number of scholars provided evidence for Serbia. In order to provide more evidence for better management of health resources at the regional and local level, this study aims to assess the impact of summer temperature on the population in Serbia, using daily average temperature (T(a)) and mortality (CDR (crude death rate) per 100,000). The analysis was done for five areas (Belgrade, Novi Sad, Niš, Loznica, and Vranje), covering the summer (June-August) period of 2001-2015. In order to quantify the T(a)-related CDR, a generalized additive model (GAM) assuming a quasi-Poisson distribution with log as the link function was used. Five regression models were constructed, for each area, revealing a statistically significant positive relationship between T(a) and CDR in four areas. The effect of T(a) on CDR was defined as the relative risk (RR), which was obtained as the exponential regression coefficient of the models. RR indicates that a 1 °C increase in T(a) at lag0 was associated with an increase in CDR of 1.7% for Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Niš and 2% for Loznica. The model for Vranje did not quantify a statistically significant increase in CDR due to T(a) (RR=1.006, 95% CI 0.991-1.020). Similar results were confirmed for gender, with a slightly higher risk for women. Analysis across lag structure showed different exposure, but the highest effect of T(a) mainly occurs over the short term and persists for 3 days.
Increased temperature risk in cities threatens the health and well-being of urban population and is fueled by climate change and intensive urbanization. Consequently, further steps must be taken for assessing temperature conditions in cities and their association with public health, in order to improve public health prevention at local or regional level. This study contributes to solving the problems by analyzing the connection between extreme temperatures and the tendencies of all-cause hospital admissions. The analyses used (a) 1-h air temperature data, and (b) daily data of all-cause hospital admissions. The datasets include the summer period (June, July, August) for the years 2016 and 2017. We tested the effects of two temperature indices, day-to-day change in maximum temperature – T(max,c) and daily temperature range – T(r), with all-cause hospital admission subgroups, such as all-cause cases – H(a), hospital admissions in the population below 65 – H(a)<65, and hospital admissions in the population aged 65 and over - H(a)≥65. The results show the highest values of H(a) when T(max,c) is between 6 and 10 °C. Therefore, more intensive hospital admissions can be expected when T(max) increases from day-to-day (positive values of T(max,c)), and it is more visible for H(a) and H(a)<65 (1 °C = 1% increase in hospital admissions). Also, T(r) values between 10 °C and 14 °C cause an increase in the number of hospital admissions, and it is more noticeable for H(a)≥65.
Vibrio cholerae are natural inhabitants of specific aquatic environments. Strains not belonging to serogroups O1 and O139 are usually unable to produce cholera toxin and cause cholera. However, non-toxigenic V. cholerae (NTVC) are able to cause a variety of mild-to-severe human infections (via seafood consumption or recreational activities). The number of unreported cases is considered substantial, as NTVC infections are not notifiable and physicians are mostly unaware of this pathogen. In the northern hemisphere, NTVC infections have been reported to increase due to global warming. In Eastern Europe, climatic and geological conditions favour the existence of inland water-bodies harbouring NTVC. We thus investigated the occurrence of NTVC in nine Serbian natural and artificial lakes and ponds, many of them used for fishing and bathing. With the exception of one highly saline lake, all investigated water-bodies harboured NTVC, ranging from 5.4 × 10(1) to 1.86 × 10(4) CFU and 4.5 × 10(2) to 5.6 × 10(6) genomic units per 100 ml. The maximum values observed were in the range of bathing waters in other countries, where infections have been reported. Interestingly, 7 out of 39 fully sequenced presumptive V. cholerae isolates were assigned as V. paracholerae, a recently described sister species of V. cholerae. Some clones and sublineages of both V. cholerae and V. paracholerae were shared by different environments indicating an exchange of strains over long distances. Important pathogenicity factors such as hlyA, toxR, and ompU were present in both species. Seasonal monitoring of ponds/lakes used for recreation in Serbia is thus recommended to be prepared for potential occurrence of infections promoted by climate change-induced rise in water temperatures.
The study aims to present reliable information about thermal conditions and their impacts on visitors to ski travel destinations. Mountain tourism areas are specific since high altitudes affect the ambient weather conditions which can affect different types of human activities. In this paper, the thermal comfort and its changes in Kopaonik Mountain, the most popular ski resort in Serbia over the last 30 years, have been evaluated. Information about thermal comfort is presented by using the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), and modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) in 3-h resolution for the period 1991-2020. The results indicate prevailing cold stress all year round. Days with moderate, strong, and very strong heat stress were not recorded. Strong and extreme cold stress prevailed during winter, while slight and moderate cold stress prevailed during summer. Transitional seasons were very cold, but autumn was more comfortable than spring. The occurrence of days with neutral and slightly warm/cool conditions is concentrated in the summer months. However, summer is not used enough for tourism because the choice of tourists to stay at Kopaonik is not primarily based on favorable bioclimatic conditions, but on resources for winter tourism. With global warming, the annual number of thermally favorable days has been increasing, while the number of days with extreme and strong cold stress is decreasing. Continuing this trend can significantly influence tourism in the future, and therefore, new strategies in ski resorts will be required to adapt to the changing climate.
Long- and short-term biometeorological conditions in the Republic of Serbia were analyzed using official meteorological data from numerous weather stations located across the country. Selected biometeorological indices HUMIDEX, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are calculated based on air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and cloudiness data from the meteorological stations on annual and summer level as well as during selected heat wave periods during 2000-2020. Application of different biometeorological indices provides similar but somewhat different results. For example, average annual HUMIDEX and UTCI values indicate no thermal stress and no discomfort at all stations, while PET indicates the occurrence of slight to moderate cold stress at all stations. Average summer PET and UTCI indicate the occurrence of slight to moderate heat stress throughout the country, while HUMIDEX indicates no discomfort. Trends of biometeorological indices on annual and summer level show a general increase throughout the country. Furthermore, heat wave analysis indicated that the most populated cities of Serbia are under dangerous and extreme heat stress during these extreme temperature events, which can influence human health and well-being. The obtained biometeorological information can be used for the preparation of climate adaptation strategies that consider the human biometeorological conditions, with a special focus on developing climate-sensitive and comfortable cities.
The study deals with an assessment and interpretation of the bioclimatic conditions in Vranje (southern Serbia). The study aims at temporal distributions of bioclimatic conditions focussing on extreme thermal stress based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The meteorological data required for the calculation of UTCI concern hourly (7 and 14 CET) weather data collected for the period 2000-2017. The frequency of very strong heat stress (VSHS), very strong cold stress (VSCS) and extreme cold stress (ECS) for both morning and midday hours. Furthermore, the daily difference of the UTCI hourly values (diurnal UTCI change) are specified, giving the daily variance of heat and cold stress. The results revealed the frequency of days in which thermal stress prevails for the studied period. The obtained results show an increase in extreme heat biothermal conditions, while extreme cold biothermal conditions are in decline, especially in the last 10 years. However, the frequency (the number of days) of very strong heat stress (VSHS) increased since 2007. A spectacular increase in heat stress was observed in the month of September, particularly in 2015.
The urban microclimate is gradually changing due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, urbanization, and the heat island effect. In such an altered environment, outdoor thermal comfort can have a strong impact on public health and quality of life in urban areas. In this study, three main urban areas in Serbia were selected: Belgrade (Central Serbia), Novi Sad (Northern Serbia), and Nis (Southern Serbia). The focus was on the temporal assessment of OTC, using the UTCI over a period of 20 years (1999-2018) during different seasons. The main aim is the general estimation of the OTC of Belgrade, Novi Sad, and Nis, in order to gain better insight into the bioclimatic condition, current trends and anomalies that have occurred. The analysis was conducted based on an hourly (7 h, 14 h, and 21 h CET) and “day by day” meteorological data set. Findings show the presence of a growing trend in seasonal UTCI anomalies, especially during summer and spring. In addition, there is a notable increase in the number of days above the defined UTCI thresholds for each season. Average annual UTCIs values also show a positive, rising trend, ranging from 0.50 degrees C to 1.33 degrees C. The most significant deviations from the average UTCI values, both seasonal and annual, were recorded in 2000, 2007, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2018.
The analysis of the bioclimatic conditions is becoming increasingly relevant in climate interpretations for human needs, particularly in spatial planning, tourism, public health, sports events, bio-prognosis, etc. In this context, our study presents general temporal bioclimatic conditions in Belgrade, defined based on the PET, mPET and UTCI heat budget indices. Monthly, seasonal and annual indices were analyzed for urban and suburban weather stations based on 43 annual sets of meteorological data obtained by hourly observations at 7 h and 14 h CET. This study aims to present the distribution of PET, mPET and UTCI indices to show the pattern of each index in a mild climate location and to examine annual and seasonal differences of each index in the Belgrade urban center and suburban part of the city. The study results indicate higher biothermal stress in the urban area compared to the suburban zone and that the indices are congruent during the summer. At the same time, during the winter, they are more difficult to compare due to their peculiarities becoming more noticeable. The results obtained of all mean monthly and mean annual values of all three indices clearly indicate the difference that follows the definition of the urban heat island (UHI), particularly those from morning observation and winter season. The UTCI index shows the most significant monthly, seasonal and annual difference between urban and suburban areas for both observations. The annual difference of ΔUTCI7h amounts to 1.5 °C is the same as the annual difference of minimum temperatures (Δtmin). In contrast, the annual differences of ΔPET7h ΔmPET7h are °smaller (0.8 °C and 0.7 °C) and closer to the annual differences of maximum temperatures Δtmax amounted of 0.6 °C.
West Nile virus (WNV) is an arthropod-born pathogen, which is transmitted from wild birds through mosquitoes to humans and animals. At the end of the 20th century, the first West Nile fever (WNF) outbreaks among humans in urban environments in Eastern Europe and the United States were reported. The disease continued to spread to other parts of the continents. In Serbia, the largest number of WNV-infected people was recorded in 2018. This research used spatial statistics to identify clusters of WNV infection in humans and animals in South Banat County, Serbia. The occurrence of WNV infection and risk factors were analyzed using a negative binomial regression model. Our research indicated that climatic factors were the main determinant of WNV distribution and were predictors of endemicity. Precipitation and water levels of rivers had an important influence on mosquito abundance and affected the habitats of wild birds, which are important for maintaining the virus in nature. We found that the maximum temperature of the warmest part of the year and the annual temperature range; and hydrographic variables, e.g., the presence of rivers and water streams were the best environmental predictors of WNF outbreaks in South Banat County.
This study aimed to estimate dynamic changes in seroprevalence of Toxoplasma gondii within the general population living in the northern part of the Republic of Serbia (Province of Vojvodina) during a 14-year period. The differences in prevalence of anti-toxoplasma antibodies were analyzed in correlation with age, gender, residential area (rural/urban) and meteorological factors. In this cohort retrospective study, 24,440 subjects between 1 and 88 years old were enrolled. To determine the presence of T. gondii-specific IgM and IgG antibodies in serum samples, commercially available ELISA kits were used (Euroimmun, Luebeck, Germany). During the study period, the overall T. gondii seroprevalence was 23.5%. The seroprevalence continuously decreased over time from 31.7% in 2008 to 20.4% in 2021 (0.81% per year, p < 0.001). Approximately 2% of patients had a serologic profile positive for both anti-Toxoplasma IgG and IgM antibodies. The seroprevalence was higher (28.87%) among men compared to women (24.28%), while urban residents (24.94%) had lower seroprevalence than the rural population (28.17%). A statistically significant negative correlation (r = -0.559) was found between serologic profile of patients positive for both T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies and the annual mean air temperature. No significant association was observed between seropositivity to T. gondii infection and examined meteorological factors. These data could be useful to national and regional health authorities to create an optimal health policy to reduce rate of T. gondii infections.
The investigation conducted in the Vojvodina Province, as a typical European and one of the biggest agricultural regions in the Balkans, offers the research methodology that could be used for any non/flooded agricultural region. The flood impact on heavy elements (HE) content in the flooded arable soil (n =?16) in relation to the control soil (n =?16) was examined, as well as their accumulation in the most often cultivated vegetables (n =?96) in the studied area. Results revealed that the flood did not significantly change the pseudo total HEs concentration in the soil as well as their amounts accumulated in different soil fractions. In both soils, only the average content of Ni exceeded the maximum permissible values set by Serbian soil quality standard which is in line with the Dutch standard. In comparison with the background values, notable enrichment is found for most of analyzed elements in both soils. Soil pollution status was assessed through several indices indicating that contamination range was in the domain from a moderate to a highly polluted. The principal component analysis demonstrated that soil contamination was probably originated from agricultural/anthropogenic activities (Cd, Cu, As, Pb), apart from Ni, Cr, and Co which came from natural weathering of the parent material. Carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of selected HEs for Serbian population in the investigated region were below the threshold values. The average levels of Pb in investigated potato and carrot samples were higher than the maximum allowable concentrations established by EU/Serbian regulation. The total hazard quotients (THQ) of HEs through intake of analyzed vegetables were below the safe threshold (? 1), suggesting the absence of adverse health effects.
