Recently, we developed seasonal prediction schemes with improved skill to predict tropical cyclone (TC) activity up to 3 months in advance for the Solomon Islands (SI) region (5 & DEG;-15 & DEG;S, 155 & DEG;-170 & DEG;E) using sophisticated Bayesian regression techniques. However, TC prediction at subseasonal timescale (i.e., 1-4 weeks in advance) is not being researched for that region despite growing demands from decision makers at sectoral level. In this paper, we first assess the feasibility of developing subseasonal prediction frameworks for the SI region using a pool of predictors that are known to affect TC activity in the region. We then evaluate multiple predictor combinations to develop the most appropriate models using a statistical approach to forecast weekly TC activity up to 4 weeks in advance. Predictors used include indices of various natural climate variability modes, namely the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). These modes often have robust physical and statistical relationships with TC occurrences in the SI region and the broader southwest Pacific territory as shown by preceding studies. Additionally, we incorporate TC seasonality as a potential predictor given the persistence of TCs occurring more in certain months than others. Note that a model with seasonality predictor alone (hereafter called the “climatology” model) forms a baseline for comparisons. The hindcast verifications of the forecasts using leave-one-out cross-validation procedure over the study period 1975-2019 indicate considerable improvements in prediction skill of our logistic regression models over climatology, even up to 4 weeks in advance. This study sets the foundation for introducing subseasonal prediction services, which is a national priority for improved decision making in sectors like agriculture and food security, water, health and disaster risk mitigation in the Solomon Islands.
This study investigated associations between climate variables (average temperature and cumulative rainfall), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and dengue-like-illness (DLI) incidence in two provinces (Western and Guadalcanal Provinces) in Solomon Islands (SI). METHODS: Weekly DLI and meteorological data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Services SI and the Ministry of Environment, Climate Change, Disaster Management and Meteorology from 2015 to 2018, respectively. We used negative binomial generalized estimating equations to assess the effects of climate variables up to a lag of 2 months and ENSO on DLI incidence in SI. RESULTS: We captured an upsurge in DLI trend between August 2016 and April 2017. We found the effects of average temperature on DLI in Guadalcanal Province at lag of one month (IRR: 2.186, 95% CI: 1.094-4.368). Rainfall had minor but consistent effect in all provinces. La Niña associated with increased DLI risks in Guadalcanal Province (IRR: 4.537, 95% CI: 2.042-10.083), whereas El Niño associated with risk reduction ranging from 72.8% to 76.7% in both provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Owing to the effects of climate variability and ENSO on DLI, defining suitable and sustainable measures to control dengue transmission and enhancing community resilience against climate change in low- and middle-developed countries are important.
OBJECTIVES: This study explored the health problems of inhabitants of small South Pacific Islands under the influence of climate change, focusing on three communities in the Solomon Islands. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of the Solomon Islands’ populations. SETTING: A field survey was conducted in Taro Island, a small, urbanised island with a whole-community relocation plan; Manuopo community of Reef Islands, a small remote island on an atoll environment and Sasamungga, an intermediately urbanised community on a larger island. The Sasamungga community was used for comparison. PARTICIPANTS: Each community’s participants were recruited through local health authorities, and 113, 155 and 116 adults (aged 18+ years) from Taro, Manuopo and Sasamungga, respectively, participated voluntarily. METHODS: Each participant’s body height, weight and body mass index were measured. A drop of blood was sampled for malaria testing; glycated haemoglobin and C reactive protein levels, measured from another drop of blood, were markers for diabetes and inflammation, respectively. The Primary Care Screening Questionnaire for Depression measured depressive mental states. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Regarding health status, the dependent variables-communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases and mental state-and independent variables-differences in communities and socioeconomic status-were measured through health check-ups and interviews of individual participants. RESULTS: Taro Island inhabitants had a higher risk of obesity (OR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27, p=0.0189), and Manuopo inhabitants had a higher risk of depression (1.25, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.44, p=0.0026) than Sasamungga inhabitants. Manuopo inhabitants recognised more serious problems of food security, livelihood, place to live and other aspects of daily living than other communities’ inhabitants. CONCLUSIONS: The three small island communities’ observation identified different health problems: the urbanised community and remote community had a high risk of non-communicable diseases and mental disorders, respectively. These health problems should be monitored continuously during future climate-related changes.
INTRODUCTION: This focused ethnographic study used qualitative, ethnographic, and participatory methods to explore determinants of maternal, infant, and young child nutrition (MIYCN) during the first 1,000 days of life as part of efforts to address the double burden of malnutrition in Solomon Islands. METHODS: An iterative study design was used to first explore and then confirm findings related to food and nutrition security and social and behavioral determinants of MIYCN in urban and rural settings. The first phase included in-depth interviews, household observations, free lists, and seasonal food availability calendar workshops while the second phase included focus group discussions, pile sorts, participatory community workshops, and repeated household observations. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: We found that MIYCN is shaped by a complex interaction of factors at the macro- and micro-levels. At the macro-level, globalization of the food system, a shifting economy, and climate change are driving a shift toward a delocalized food system based on imported processed foods. This shift has contributed to a food environment that leaves Solomon Islanders vulnerable to food and nutrition insecurity, which we found to be the primary determinant of MIYCN in this context. At the micro-level, this food environment leads to household- and individual-level food decisions that often do not support adequate MIYCN. Multi-sectoral interventions that address the macro- and micro-level factors shaping this nutrition situation may help to improve MIYCN in Solomon Islands.
Indigenous Solomon Islanders, like many living in Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS), are currently experiencing the global syndemic-the combined threat of obesity, undernutrition, and climate change. This mixed-method study aimed to assess nutrition transitions and diet quality by comparing three geographically unique rural and urban indigenous Solomon Islands populations. Participants in rural areas sourced more energy from wild and cultivated foods; consumed a wider diversity of foods; were more likely to meet WHO recommendations of >400g of non-starchy fruits and vegetables daily; were more physically active; and had significantly lower body fat, waist circumference, and body mass index (BMI) when compared to urban populations. Urban populations were found to have a reduced ability to self-cultivate agri-food products or collect wild foods, and therefore consumed more ultra-processed foods (classified as NOVA 4) and takeout foods, and overall had less diverse diets compared to rural populations. Clear opportunities to leverage traditional knowledge and improve the cultivation and consumption of underutilized species can assist in building more sustainable and resilient food systems while ensuring that indigenous knowledge and cultural preferences are respected.
