The data presented in this article is part in essence of a more extensive dataset aimed at evaluating patterns of change in the temperature-mortality relationship on population health in the city of Valencia, Spain on population health in the city of Valencia, Spain. The complete dataset was used in the framework of the European multi-city project PHASE (Public Health Adaptation Strategies to Extreme weather events) [1]. The data includes daily counts of all-cause mortality, excluding external causes and cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. All-cause mortality is also classified by gender and age groups. Besides temperature, we included other meteorological variables and air pollutants from the PHASE dataset, as well as influenza epidemics. The variable Saharan dust events was also added. All these data were collected from public Governmental data repositories accessible under request. The dataset of this article provides a basis for comparison with similar models for time-series regression, allowing researchers to integrate additional model components without duplication of effort.
OBJECTIVES: Recreational physical activity is an integral part of our society, and the injuries caused by sports activities are a concern for public health. We studied the effect of outdoor ambient temperature on hospital emergency department visits caused by sports injuries in Madrid, Spain, and accounted for its seasonal changes. METHODS: We used a time-series design. Data was analysed with quasi-Poisson regression models. We calculated the proportion of emergency visits attributable to seasonal changes before and after adjusting for daily ambient temperature. We modelled the association between emergency visits and temperature using distributed lag non-linear models. RESULTS: The proportion of emergency visits attributable to seasonal changes was 24.1% and decreased to 7.6% after adjusting for temperature. We found a high risk of emergency visits associated with cold and hot temperatures, whereas the risk was higher for heat. CONCLUSION: Sports and recreational physical activity injuries are not rare events; therefore, appropriate healthcare decisions should consider the impact of outdoor ambient temperature and seasonal changes.
Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events represent one of the key indicators of climate change and variability. These events can have an important impact on mortality rates, especially in the ageing population. This study assessed the spatial and seasonal distributions of mortality rates in mainland Spain and their association with climatic conditions over the period 1979-2016. The analysis was done on a seasonal and annual basis using 79 climatic indices and regional natural deaths data. Results indicate large spatial variability of natural deaths, which is mostly related to how the share of the elderly in the population varied across the studied regions. Spatially, both the highest mortality rates and the largest percentage of elders were found in the northwest areas of the study domain, where an extreme climate prevails, with very cold winters and hot summers. A strong seasonality effect was observed, winter shows more than 10% of natural deaths compared to the rest of the seasons. Also, results suggest a strong relation between climatic indices and natural deaths, albeit with a high spatial and seasonal variability. Climatic indices and natural deaths show a stronger correlation in winter and summer than in spring and autumn.
Major floods in Spain in September 9-13, 2019 resulted in seven casualties and massive losses to agriculture, property and infrastructure. This paper investigates the utility of satellite data to: (1) characterize the event when input into a hydrological model, and to provide an accurate picture of the evolution of the floods; and (2) inform meteorologists in real time in order to complement model forecasts. It is shown that the precipitation estimates from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory (GPM-CO, available since 2014) and the merged satellite estimates provide an extraordinary improvement over previous technologies to monitor severe hydrometeorological episodes in near real time. In spite of known biases and errors, these new satellite precipitation estimates can be of broad practical interest to deal with emergencies and long-term readiness, especially for semi-arid areas potentially affected by ongoing global warming. Comparisons of satellite data of the September event with model outputs and more direct observations such as rain gauges and ground radars reinforce the idea that satellites are fundamental for an appropriate management of hydrometeorological events.
Featured Application This review contribute to understand the mechanisms underlying the observed rockfall activity during and after a wildfire, to advance in the solutions and methods to address the study of the problem, and to assess the hazard during and after wildfire, and its impact on not only transportation infrastructure and urban areas, but also the population. The results will help the decision makers and emergencies authorities to evaluate the exposure of elements at risk, to define actions to reduce their vulnerability and to identify measures to mitigate damages and social impact. Understanding processes and conditions that lead to rockfalls during and after a wildfire in different geological contexts is crucial since this phenomenon is one of the major hazards in mountainous regions across Europe. Spain is one of the European countries with the highest rate of wildfires, and rockfalls cause high economic and social impact, with many fatalities every year. The increase of rockfalls during and after wildfires is connected with the merging of different factors, not only in the detached area but also in the propagation and potentially affected area. When wildfire occurred, many actions take place: changes in the mechanical conditions of the rocks, the loss of protective capacity from vegetation, the effect induced by firefighting activities and/or the impact by the high temperatures in the adopted protective measures. After the wildfire, there is an increase in frequency and intensity of rockfalls in the burned area, causing a major impact of rockfalls on not only road networks and built-up areas but also people living. Additionally, the removal of vegetation by wildfires causes an increase in the risk perception, related not only to detached blocks but also to the general appearance of the rock mass. In this review, the main factors that influence the occurrence of rockfalls after a wildfire are analyzed, and three actual case studies in Spain are presented to support the variety of conclusions obtained.
INTRODUCTION: There is currently little knowledge and few published works on the subject of vulnerability to heat in rural environments at the country level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine whether rural areas are more vulnerable to extreme heat than urban areas in Spain. This study aimed to analyze whether a pattern of vulnerability depends on contextual, environmental, demographic, economic and housing variables. METHODS: An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out based on time series data between January 01, 2000 and December 31, 2013 in 42 geographic areas in 10 provinces in Spain. We first analyzed the functional relationship between the mortality rate per million inhabitants and maximum daily temperature (Tmax). We then determined the summer temperature threshold (Pthreshold) (June-September) at which increases in mortality are produced that are attributable to heat. In a second phase, based on Pthreshold, a vulnerability variable was calculated, and its distribution was analyzed using mixed linear models from the Poisson family (link = log). In these models, the dependent variable was vulnerability, and the independent variables were exposure to high temperatures, aridity of the climate, deprivation index, percentage of people over age 65, rurality index, percentage of housing built prior to 1980 and condition of dwellings. RESULTS: Rurality was a protective factor, and vulnerability in urban areas was six times greater. In contrast, risk factors included aridity (RR = 5.89 (2.26 15.36)), living in cool summer zones (2.69 (1.23, 5.91)), poverty (4.05 (1.91 8.59)) and the percentage of dysfunctional housing (1.13 (1.04 1.24)). CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas are less vulnerable to extreme heat than the urban areas analyzed. Also, population groups with worse working conditions and higher percentages of dwellings in poor conditions are more vulnerable.
Background An area of current study concerns analysis of the possible adaptation of the population to heat, based on the temporal evolution of the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). It is important to know how is the evolution of the threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) due to these temperatures provide the basis for the activation of public health prevention plans against high temperatures. The objective of this study was to analyze the temporal evolution of threshold temperatures (Tthreshold) produced in different Spanish regions during the 1983-2018 period and to compare this evolution with the evolution of MMT. The dependent variable used was the raw rate of daily mortality due to natural causes ICD X: (A00-R99) for the considered period. The independent variable was maximum daily temperature (Tmax) during the summer months registered in the reference observatory of each region. Threshold values were determined using dispersion diagrams (annual) of the prewhitened series of mortality temperatures and Tmax. Later, linear fit models were carried out between the different values of Tthreshold throughout the study period, which permitted detecting the annual rate of change in Tthreshold. Results The results obtained show that, on average, Tthreshold has increased at a rate of 0.57 oC/decade in Spain, while Tmax temperatures in the summer have increased at a rate of 0.41 oC/decade, suggesting adaptation to heat. This rate of evolution presents important geographic heterogeneity. Also, the rate of evolution of Tthreshold was similar to what was detected for MMT. Conclusions The temporal evolution of the series of both temperature measures can be used as indicators of population adaptation to heat. The temporal evolution of Tthreshold has important geographic variation, probably related to sociodemographic and economic factors, that should be studied at the local level.
In Spain the average temperature has increased by 1.7 °C since pre-industrial times. There has been an increase in heat waves both in terms of frequency and intensity, with a clear impact in terms of population health. The effect of heat waves on daily mortality presents important territorial differences. Gender also affects these impacts, as a determinant that conditions social inequalities in health. There is evidence that women may be more susceptible to extreme heat than men, although there are relatively few studies that analyze differences in the vulnerability and adaptation to heat by sex. This could be related to physiological causes. On the other hand, one of the indicators used to measure vulnerability to heat in a population and its adaptation is the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and its temporal evolution. The aim of this study was to analyze the values of MMT in men and women and its temporal evolution during the 1983-2018 period in Spain’s provinces. An ecological, longitudinal retrospective study was carried out of time series data, based on maximum daily temperature and daily mortality data corresponding to the study period. Using cubic and quadratic fits between daily mortality rates and the temperature, the minimum values of these functions were determined, which allowed for determining MMT values. Furthermore, we used an improved methodology that provided for the estimation of missing MMT values when polynomial fits were inexistent. This analysis was carried out for each year. Later, based on the annual values of MMT, a linear fit was carried out to determine the rate of evolution of MMT for men and for women at the province level. Average MMT for all of Spain’s provinces was 29.4 °C in the case of men and 28.7 °C in the case of women. The MMT for men was greater than that of women in 86 percent of the total provinces analyzed, which indicates greater vulnerability among women. In terms of the rate of variation in MMT during the period analyzed, that of men was 0.39 °C/decade, compared to 0.53 °C/decade for women, indicating greater adaptation to heat among women, compared to men. The differences found between men and women were statistically significant. At the province level, the results show great heterogeneity. Studies carried out at the local level are needed to provide knowledge about those factors that can explain these differences at the province level, and to allow for incorporating a gender perspective in the implementation of measures for adaptation to high temperatures.
BACKGROUND: In Spain, two synoptic-scale conditions influence heat wave formation. The first involves advection of warm and dry air masses carrying dust of Saharan origin (North African Dust (NAF) = 1). The second entails anticyclonic stagnation with high insolation and stability (NAF) = 0). Some studies show that the meteorological origin of these heat waves may affect their impact on morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the impact of heat waves on health outcomes in Madrid (Spain) during 2013-2018 varied by synoptic-scale condition. METHODOLOGY: Outcome data consist of daily mortality and daily hospital emergency admissions (morbidity) for natural, circulatory, and respiratory causes. Predictors include daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily mean concentrations of NO(2), PM(10), PM(2.5), NO(2), and O(3). Analyses adjust for insolation, relative humidity, and wind speed. Generalized linear models were performed with Poisson link between the variables controlling for trend, seasonality, and auto-regression in the series. Relative Risks (RR) and Attributable Risks (AR) were determined. The RRs for mortality attributable to high temperatures were similar regardless of NAF status. For hospital admissions, however, the RRs for hot days with NAF = 0 are higher than for days with NAF = 1. We also found that atmospheric pollutants worsen morbidity and mortality, especially PM(10) concentrations when NAF = 1 and O(3) concentrations when NAF = 0. RESULTS: The effect of heat waves on morbidity and mortality depends on the synoptic situation. The impact is greater under anticyclonic stagnation conditions than under Saharan dust advection. Further, the health impact of pollutants such as PM(10) and O(3) varies according to the synoptic situation. CONCLUSIONS: Based on these findings, we strongly recommend prevention plans to include data on the meteorological situation originating the heat wave, on a synoptic-scale, as well as comprehensive preventive measures against the compounding effect of high temperatures and pollution.
The European Union is currently immersed in policy development to address the effects of climate change around the world. Key plans and processes for facilitating adaptation to high temperatures and for reducing the adverse effects on health are among the most urgent measures. Therefore, it is necessary to understand those factors that influence adaptation. The aim of this study was to provide knowledge related to the social, climate and economic factors that are related to the evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) in Spain in the rural and urban contexts, during the 1983-2018 time period. For this purpose, local factors were studied regarding their relationship to levels of adaptation to heat. MMT is an indicator that allows for establishing a relationship to between mortality and temperature, and is a valid indicator to assess the capacity of adaptation to heat of a certain population. MMT is obtained through the maximum daily temperature and daily mortality of the study period. The evolution of MMT values for Spain was established in a previous paper. An ecological, longitudinal and retrospective study was carried out. Generalized linear models (GLM) were performed to identify the variables that appeared to be related to adaptation. The adaptation was calculated as the difference in variation in MMT based on the average increase in maximum daily temperatures. In terms of adaptation to heat, urban populations have adapted more than non-urban populations. Seventy-nine percent (n = 11) of urban provinces have adapted to heat, compared to twenty-one percent (n = 3) of rural provinces that have not adapted. In terms of urban zones, income level and habituation to heat (values over the 95th percentile) were variables shown to be related to adaptation. In contrast, among non-urban provinces, a greater number of housing rehabilitation licenses and a greater number of health professionals were variables associated with higher increases in MMT, and therefore, with adaptation. These results highlight the need to carry out studies that allow for identifying the local factors that are most relevant and influential in population adaptation. More studies carried out at a small scale are needed.
The objective of this study was to analyze at the level of Spain’s 52 provinces province level the temporal evolution of minimum mortality temperatures (MMT) from 1983 to 2018, in order to determine whether the increase in MMT would be sufficient to compensate for the increase in environmental temperatures in Spain for the period. It also aimed to analyze whether the rate of evolution of MMT would be sufficient, were it to remain constant, to compensate for the predicted increase in temperatures in an unfavorable (RCP 8.5) emissions scenario for the time horizon 2051-2100. The independent variable was made up of maximum daily temperature data (Tmax) for the summer months in the reference observatories of each province for the 1983-2018 period. The dependent variable was daily mortality rate due to natural causes (ICD 10: A00-R99). For each year and province, MMT was determined using a quadratic or cubic fit (p < 0.05). Based on the annual MMT values, a linear fit was carried out that allowed for determining the time evolution of MMT. These values were compared with the evolution of Tmax registered in each observatory during the 1983-2018 analyzed period and with the predicted values of Tmax obtained for an RCP8.5 scenario for the period 2051-2100. The rate of global variance in Tmax in the summer months in Spain during the 1983-2018 period was 0.41 °C/decade, while MMT across the whole country increased at a rate of 0.64 °C/decade. Variations in the provinces were heterogeneous. For the 2051-2100 time horizon, there was predicted increase in Tmax values of 0.66 °C/decade, with marked geographical differences. Although at the global level it is possible to speak of adaptation, the heterogeneities among the provinces suggest that the local level measures are needed in order to facilitate adaptation in those areas where it is not occurring.
BACKGROUND: The increased risk of mortality during periods of high and low temperatures has been well established. However, most of the studies used daily counts of deaths or hospitalisations as health outcomes, although they are the ones at the top of the health impact pyramid reflecting only a limited proportion of patients with the most severe cases. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluates the relationship between short-term exposure to the daily mean temperature and medication prescribed for the respiratory system in five Spanish cities. METHODS: We fitted time series regression models to cause-specific medical prescriptions, including different respiratory subgroups and age groups. We included a distributed lag non-linear model with lags up to 14 days for daily mean temperature. City-specific associations were summarised as overall-cumulative exposure-response curves. RESULTS: We found a positive association between cause-specific medical prescriptions and daily mean temperature with a non-linear inverted J- or V-shaped relationship in most cities. Between 0.3% and 0.6% of all respiratory prescriptions were attributed to cold for Madrid, Zaragoza and Pamplona, while in cities with only cold effects the attributable fractions were estimated as 19.2% for Murcia and 13.5% for Santander. Heat effects in Madrid, Zaragoza and Pamplona showed higher fractions between 8.7% and 17.2%. The estimated costs are in general higher for heat effects, showing annual values ranging between €191,905 and €311,076 for heat per 100,000 persons. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel evidence of the effects of the thermal environment on the prescription of medication for respiratory disorders in Spain, showing that low and high temperatures lead to an increase in the number of such prescriptions. The consumption of medication can reflect exposure to the environment with a lesser degree of severity in terms of morbidity.
Extreme temperatures are a threat to public health, increasing mortality in the affected population. Moreover, there is substantial research showing how age and gender shape vulnerabilities to this environmental risk. However, there is only limited knowledge on how socioeconomic status (SES), operationalized using educational attainment, stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures on mortality. Here, we address this link using Poisson regression and administrative data from 2012 to 2018 for 50 Spanish Provinces on individuals aged above 65 matched with meteorological data provided by the E-OBS dataset. In line with previous studies, results show that hot and cold days increase mortality. Results on the interaction between SES and extreme temperatures show a positive and significant effect of exposure to heat and cold for individuals with medium and low SES level. Conversely, for high SES individuals we do not find evidence of a robust association with heat or cold. We further investigate how the local climate moderates these associations. A warmer climate increases risks with exposures to low temperatures and vice versa for hot temperatures in the pooled sample. Moreover, we observe that results are mostly driven by low SES individuals being particularly vulnerable to heat in colder climates and cold in warmer climates. In conclusion, results highlight how educational attainment stratifies the effect of extreme temperatures and the relevance of the local climate in shaping risks of low SES individuals aged above 65.
BACKGROUND: Evidence from the scientific literature shows a significant variation in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the diet, according to the type of food consumed. We aim to analyze the relationship between the daily dietary GHG emissions according to red meat, fruit and vegetables consumption and their relationship with risk of total mortality, and incident risk of chronic diseases. METHODS: We examined data on the EPIC-Spain prospective study, with a sample of 40 621 participants. Dietary GHG emission values were calculated for 57 food items of the EPIC study using mean emission data from a systematic review of 369 published studies. RESULTS: Dietary GHG emissions (kgCO2eq/day), per 2000 kcal, were 4.7 times higher in those with high red-meat consumption (>140 g/day) than those with low consumption (<70 g/day). The average dietary GHG emissions were similar in males and females, but it was significantly higher in youngest people and in those individuals with lower educational level, as well as for northern EPIC centers of Spain. We found a significant association with the risk of mortality comparing the third vs. the first tertile of dietary GHG emissions [hazard ratio (HR) 1.095; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.007-1.19; trend test 0.037]. Risk of coronary heart disease (HR 1.26; 95% CI 1.08-1.48; trend test 0.003) and risk of type 2 diabetes (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.11-1.38; trend test 0.002) showed significant association as well. CONCLUSIONS: Decreasing red-meat consumption would lead to reduce GHG emissions from diet and would reduce risk of mortality, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes.
Los productos suministrados son: concentraciones en superficie con salidas gráficas horarias de las concentraciones en superficie de NO2, NO, O3, SO2, CO, PM10 y PM2.5 expresadas en µg/m3; índice previsto diario de calidad del aire
calculado a partir de valores de concentración, utilizando la información procedente de las directivas vigentes relacionadas con los distintos contaminantes atmosféricos, e Índice previsto horario de calidad del aire con un horizonte temporal de 48 horas
El Plan Nacional de Predicción y Vigilancia de Fenómenos Meteorológicos Adversos (Meteoalerta) pretende facilitar la mejor y más actualizada información posible sobre los fenómenos atmosféricos adversos que se prevean, con un adelanto de hasta 72 horas. En ese sentido, uno de los avisos corresponde a tormentas, con cuatro niveles básicos (de menor a mayor riesgo): verde (sin riesgo), amarillo (tormentas fuertes), naranja (tormentas muy fuertes) y rojo (tormentas muy fuertes que por sus características excepcionales pueden tener un alto impacto).
Aerosol atmosférico es un término general utilizado para describir partículas sólidas secas suspendidas en la atmósfera que pueden presentar tamaños desde submicrométricos hasta varias decenas de micras. Los aerosoles pueden viajar miles de kilómetros y tener graves impactos en la salud pública mundial además de degradar la calidad del aire y ocasionar efectos negativos sobre el medio ambiente y algunas actividades económicas. La proximidad de Canarias al continente africano convierte a las islas en un área de elevado interés por la frecuencia de las intrusiones de polvo mineral desértico y el impacto que produce en la población; por tanto, es de suma relevancia la caracterización de las intrusiones de polvo desértico que afectan al archipiélago canario.
En el capítulo 1 de esta nota técnica se exponen generalidades y conceptos básicos del polvo mineral atmosférico. En el capítulo 2 se desarrolla la metodología utilizada y se describen la red de observación y las series históricas de PM10. En el capítulo 3 se presentan los resultados de la caracterización de las intrusiones de polvo desértico en Canarias que incluyen datos relevantes sobre la duración de los eventos, el efecto de las intrusiones en la calidad del aire y la caracterización de los valores PM10 de fondo. En el capítulo 4 se exponen varios casos de estudio que muestran distintos tipos de eventos de intrusión de polvo en Canarias. El capítulo 5 recoge las conclusiones principales de este trabajo. El capítulo 6 incluye una guía básica que pretende servir de ayuda a la hora de afrontar un posible evento de intrusión de polvo desértico.
Esta publicación resume los resultados obtenidos en casi cinco años del proyecto de “Impacto de las intrusiones atmosféricas africanas en la calidad del aire en Canarias y de la Península Ibérica” (2004-2009), entre los que cabe destacar una caracterización completa de los pólenes y esporas de hongos muestreados en el aire de Santa Cruz de Tenerife, la elaboración de predicciones semanales de pólenes y esporas de hongos, así como la obtención de un calendario polínico de utilidad para aquellos profesionales de la medicina que trabajan en alergias y afecciones respiratorias, y para los ciudadanos de Santa Cruz de Tenerife y visitantes que sean alérgicos al polen.
Esta nota técnica es el resultado de un trabajo interdisciplinar en el que han intervenido meteorólogos, biólogos y médicos, con el objetivo final de mejorar la calidad de vida de las personas aquejadas por problemas de alergia. Con el fin de avanzar en el conocimiento de todos los aspectos ligados a la emisión de polen de plátano en primavera, poder así mejorar el actual sistema de vigilancia de dicho polen y optimizar los recursos del sistema sanitario, han colaborado AEMET, que ha aportado su banco de datos de variables meteorológicas para diferentes horas y distintos emplazamientos, y la Consejería de Salud de la Comunidad de Madrid, que ha proporcionado los recuentos de polen diarios de su red Palinocam. El objetivo de esta colaboración ha sido avanzar en el conocimiento de todos los aspectos ligados a la emisión del polen del plátano para poder predecir con antelación suficiente su aparición en la primavera.
El Plan Nacional de Predicción y Vigilancia de Fenómenos Meteorológicos Adversos (Meteoalerta) pretende facilitar la mejor y más actualizada información posible sobre los fenómenos atmosféricos adversos que se prevean, con un adelanto de hasta 72 horas. En ese sentido, uno de los avisos se corresponde con temperaturas mínimas y máximas extremas, con cuatro niveles básicos (de menor a mayor riesgo en modo semafórico) a partir del posible alcance de determinados umbrales: verde, amarillo, naranja y rojo. Estos umbrales se han establecido con criterios climatológicos cercanos al concepto de “poco o muy poco frecuente” y de adversidad, en función de la amenaza que puedan suponer para la población.
El nivel de riesgo meteorológico diario de incendios forestales está basado en el sistema canadiense y se calcula a partir de los datos de las estaciones meteorológicas de AEMET y de las salidas de un modelo numérico de predicción del tiempo. Las variables de entrada del modelo de estimación de riesgo son: la temperatura del aire seco T (ºC), la humedad relativa del aire Hr (%), la velocidad del viento Vv (km/h) y la precipitación registrada en las últimas 24 horas Pp (mm). Los datos del análisis y pronóstico se refieren a las 12 UTC con el fin de obtener el valor de máximo riesgo diario, lo que sucede en torno al mediodía, si bien su valor tiene validez desde varias horas antes hasta varias horas después de las 12 UTC.
En la AEMET los datos que intervienen en el cálculo de los niveles de riesgo proceden de su red de estaciones sinópticas y automáticas y del modelo CEPPM (resolución espacial de 0.05º y ventana de trabajo de 47.367 puntos de rejilla). Cada punto de rejilla se sitúa en el centro de un cuadrado o píxel de 5 km de lado, por tanto, las variables de cálculo son representativas de un área de 25 km2 o 2500 ha.
El riesgo de incendio se estratifica en cinco clases o niveles de riesgo (bajo, moderado, alto, muy alto y extremo) que serán indicadores de la probabilidad de ocurrencia del fuego así como de la extensión e intensidad del mismo.
El sistema de monitorización de sequías meteorológicas está diseñado para el seguimiento, alerta temprana y evaluación de la sequía meteorológica, para lo que utiliza en tiempo real la información climática y satelital disponible que muestra el desarrollo de las condiciones de sequía meteorológica y la posible evolución de la misma. El sistema incorpora el desarrollo de productos tecnológicos operativos con implicaciones directas para la gestión de los recursos hídricos, las áreas naturales y para la gestión del riesgo de sequía meteorológica en sectores económicos afectados.
El sistema de predicción de radiación ultravioleta de la AEMET pronostica valores del índice UV hasta 5 días utilizando los valores de ozono previstos por el modelo dinámico global del Centro Europeo de Predicción a Plazo Medio, para las capitales de provincia, ciudades autónomas e islas. Estos valores de ozono, junto con otras variables, constituyen la entrada al modelo de Transferencia Radiativa Radtran, que ejecutado diariamente en los ordenadores de la AEMET, proporciona los datos de irradiancia solar en las longitudes de onda del UV, necesarios para calcular el UVI previsto en condiciones de cielo despejado. En un futuro próximo se espera poder proporcionar UVI previsto en condiciones de cielo despejado y nuboso.
Leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease transmitted by sand flies. A dozen species have been involved in the transmission of Leishmania infantum in the Mediterranean region. Climate change may alter sand fly distribution at particular altitudes and latitudes. The objective of this study was to interrogate the existence of stable populations of sand flies in high-altitude ecosystems and evaluate if these populations are enough to support autochthonous transmission of leishmaniasis. These altitudinal conditions can be found in Sierra Nevada (southern Spain). Therefore, we have determined the sand fly population dynamics in different biotopes located at elevations above 1,300 m a.s.l. and searched for evidence of leishmaniasis transmission. Five collecting sites above 1,300 m a.s.l. containing large livestock concentrations were selected. Sand flies were caught using CDC light traps from May to November, annually from 2008 to 2013, and these were morphologically identified. Association between sand fly density or presence and temperature/humidity was estimated by linear and logistic regression, respectively. Leishmania infantum detection in female sand flies was performed by PCR. Diagnosis of canine leishmaniasis (CanL) was carried out by indirect immunofluorescence and PCR. A total of 2,973 specimens of 5 sand fly species were collected from June to October. Phlebotomus perniciosus was the most frequent (100%), abundant (80.1%) and densest species (9.8 sand flies/trap). The minimum temperature on the day of capture was the most important variable factor for sand fly presence and P. perniciosus density. An increase in altitude showed a negative effect over the sand fly diversity and activity period, driving changes in seasonal dynamics similar to those reported by latitudinal changes. CanL prevalence was 23%, a similar rate to previous surveys carried out on randomly selected dogs from towns in southern Spain. A successful host-vector-pathogen network was found at this altitude characterised by 9.9% L. infantum infection rate in non-blood fed P. perniciosus and Phlebotomus ariasi females and high CanL prevalence that entails an increase in the leishmaniasis risk area driven by sand fly colonization.
BACKGROUND: Mechanisms linking occupational heat exposure with chronic diseases have been proposed. However, evidence on occupational heat exposure and cancer risk is limited. METHODS: We evaluated occupational heat exposure and female breast cancer risk in a large Spanish case-control study. We enrolled 1,738 breast cancer cases and 1,910 frequency-matched population controls. A Spanish job-exposure matrix, MatEmEsp, was used to assign estimates of the proportion of workers exposed (P ? 25% for at least 1 year) and work time with heat stress (wet bulb globe temperature ISO 7243) for each occupation. We used three exposure indices: ever versus never exposed, lifetime cumulative exposure, and duration of exposure (years). We estimated ORs and 95% confidence intervals (CI), applying a lag period of 5 years and adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Ever occupational heat exposure was associated with a moderate but statistically significant higher risk of breast cancer (OR 1.22; 95% CI, 1.01-1.46), with significant trends across categories of lifetime cumulative exposure and duration (P (trend) = 0.01 and 0.03, respectively). Stronger associations were found for hormone receptor-positive disease (OR ever exposure = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.12-1.67). We found no confounding effects from multiple other common occupational exposures; however, results attenuated with adjustment for occupational detergent exposure. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some evidence of an association between occupational heat exposure and female breast cancer risk. IMPACT: Our results contribute substantially to the scientific literature. Further investigations are needed considering multiple occupational exposures.
The aim of this study was to compare airborne levels of Phl p 1 and Phl p 5, with Poaceae pollen concentrations inside and outside of the pollen season, and to evaluate their association with symptoms in grass allergic patients and the influence of climate and pollution. The Hirst and the Burkard Cyclone samplers were used for pollen and allergen quantification, respectively. The sampling period ran from 23 March 2009 to 27 July 2010. Twenty-three patients with seasonal allergic asthma and rhinitis used an electronic symptom card. The aerosol was extracted and quantified for Phl p 1 and Phl p 5 content. Descriptive statistics, non-parametric paired contrast of Wilcoxon, Spearman’s correlations, and a categorical principal component analysis (CatPCA) were carried out. Significant variations in pollen, aeroallergen levels, pollen allergen potency, and symptoms score were observed in this study. Phl p 5 pollen allergen potency was higher at the beginning of the 2010 grass pollen season. Presence of Phl p 1 outside the pollen season with positive O(3) correlation was clinically relevant. 45.5% of the variance was explained by two dimensions in the CatPCA analysis, showing the symptom relationships dissociated in two dimensions. In the first one, the more important relationship was with grass pollen grains concentration and Phl p 5 and to a lesser extent with Phl p 1 and levels of NO(2) and O(3), and in the second dimension, symptoms were associated with humidity and SO(2). Clinically relevant out-season Phl p 1 was found with a positive O(3) correlation. The effect of climate and pollution may have contributed to the higher seasonal allergic rhinitis symptom score recorded in 2009.
The health, economic, and social impact of COVID-19 has been significant across the world. Our objective was to evaluate the association between air pollution (through NO(2) and PM(2.5) levels) and COVID-19 mortality in Spanish provinces from February 3, 2020, to July 14, 2020, adjusting for climatic parameters. An observational and ecological study was conducted with information extracted from Datadista repository (Datadista, 2020). Air pollutants (NO(2) and PM(2.5) levels) were analyzed as potential determinants of COVID-19 mortality. Multilevel Poisson regression models were used to analyze the risk of mortality after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Models were adjusted by four climatic variables (hours of solar radiation, precipitation, daily temperature and wind speed) and population size. The mean levels of PM(2.5) and NO(2) across all provinces and time in Spain were 8.7 ?g/m(3) (SD 9.7) and 8.7 ?g/m(3) (SD 6.2), respectively. High levels of PM(2.5) (IRR?=?1.016, 95% CI: 1.007-1.026), NO(2) (IRR?=?1.066, 95% CI: 1.058-1.075) and precipitation (IRR(NO2)?=?0.989, 95% CI: 0.981-0.997) were positively associated with COVID-19 mortality, whereas temperature (IRR(PM2.5)?=?0.988, 95% CI: 0.976-1.000; and IRR(NO2)?=?0.771, 95% CI: 0.761-0.782, respectively) and wind speed (IRR(NO2)?=?1.095, 95% CI: 1.061-1.131) were negatively associated with COVID-19 mortality. Air pollution can be a key factor to understand the mortality rate for COVID-19 in Spain. Furthermore, climatic variables could be influencing COVID-19 progression. Thus, air pollution and climatology ought to be taken into consideration in order to control the pandemic. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11869-021-01062-2.
In this study, we use a statistical approach based on generalized additive models, linking atmospheric circulation and the number of influenza-related hospital admissions in the Spanish Iberian Peninsula during 2003-2013. The relative risks are estimated for administrative units in the Spanish territory, which is politically structured into 15 regions called autonomous communities. A catalog of atmospheric circulation types is defined for this purpose. The relationship between the exposure and response variables is modeled using a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM). Types from southwest and anticyclonic are significant in terms of the probability of having more influenza-related hospital admissions for all of Spain. The heterogeneity of the results is very high. The relative risk is also estimated for each autonomous community and weather type, with the maximum number of influenza-related hospital admissions associated with circulation types from the southwest and the south. We identify six specific situations where relative risk is considered extreme and twelve with a high risk of increasing influenza-related hospital admissions. The rest of the situations present a moderate risk. Atmospheric local conditions become a key factor for understanding influenza spread in each spatial unit of the Peninsula. Further research is needed to understand how different weather variables (temperature, humidity, and sun radiation) interact and promote the spread of influenza.
Since the early twentieth century, the intensity of malaria transmission has decreased sharply worldwide, although it is still an infectious disease with a yearly estimate of 228 million cases. The aim of this study was to expand our knowledge on the main drivers of malaria in Spain. In the case of autochthonous malaria, these drivers were linked to socioeconomic and hygienic and sanitary conditions, especially in rural areas due to their close proximity to the wetlands that provide an important habitat for anopheline reproduction. In the case of imported malaria, the main drivers were associated with urban areas, a high population density and international communication nodes (e.g. airports). Another relevant aspect is that the major epidemic episodes of the twentieth century were strongly influenced by war and military conflicts and overcrowding of the healthcare system due to the temporal overlap with the pandemic flu of 1918. Therefore, military conflicts and overlap with other epidemics or pandemics are considered to be drivers of malaria that can-in a temporary manner-exponentially intensify transmission of the disease. Climatic factors did not play a relevant role as drivers of malaria in Spain (at least directly). However, they did influence the seasonality of the disease and, during the epidemic outbreak of 1940-1944, the climate conditions favored or coadjuvated its spread. The results of this study provide additional knowledge on the seasonal and interannual variability of malaria that can help to develop and implement health risk control measures. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41207-021-00245-8.
A yellow fever epidemic occurred in Cadiz and other areas of southern Spain during the last months of 1800. An anonymous author attributed this disease to the contrast between the cold and rainy winter and spring, and the subsequent very hot summer. However, the physician J.M. Arejula published a report in 1806 where he refuted this conclusion after a detailed analysis of the meteorological conditions in the area. This controversy is a good example of the discussion about the relationships between meteorological conditions and public health. In this work, this “scientific” controversy is studied. Although the arguments of both authors were inspired by the neo-Hippocratic medical paradigm, the anonymous author put forth a simple cause effect hypothesis, while Arejula recognized the complexity of the problem, introducing the concept of “concause” to explain the confluence of environmental and contagious effects.
The increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves is one of the most unquestionable effects of climate change. Therefore, the progressive increase in maximum temperatures will have a clear incidence on the increase in mortality, especially in countries that are vulnerable due to geographical location or their socioeconomic characteristics. Different research studies show that the mortality attributable to heat is decreasing globally, and research is centred on future scenarios. One way of detecting the existence of a lesser impact of heat is through the increase in the so-called temperature of minimum mortality (TMM). The objective of this study is to determine the temporal evolution of TMM in two Spanish provinces (Seville and Madrid) during the 1983-2018 period and to evaluate whether the rate of adaptation to heat is appropriate. We used the gross rate of daily mortality due to natural causes (CIEX: A00-R99) and the maximum daily temperature (°C) to determine the quinquennial TMM using dispersion diagrams and realizing fit using quadratic and cubic curvilinear estimation. The same analysis was carried out at the annual level, by fitting an equation to the line of TMM for each province, whose slope, if significant (p < 0.05) represents the annual rate of variation in TMM. The results observed in this quinquennial analysis showed that the TMM is higher in Seville than in Madrid and that it is higher among men than women in the two provinces. Furthermore, there was an increase in TMM in all of the quinquennium and a clear decrease in the final period. At the annual level, the linear fit was significant for Madrid for the whole population and corresponds to an increase in the TMM of 0.58 °C per decade. For Seville the linear fits were significant and the slopes of the fitted lines was 1.1 °C/decade. Both Madrid and Seville are adapting to the increase in temperatures observed over the past 36 years, and women are the group that is more susceptible to heat, compared to men. The implementation of improvements and evaluation of prevention plans to address the impact of heat waves should continue in order to ensure adequate adaptation in the future.
Introduction and objectives. The increase in mortality and hospital admissions associated with high and low temperatures is well established. However, less is known about the influence of extreme ambient temperature conditions on cardiovascular ambulance dispatches. This study seeks to evaluate the effects of minimum and maximum daily temperatures on cardiovascular morbidity in the cities of Vigo and A Coruña in North-West Spain, using emergency medical calls during the period 2005-2017. Methods. For the purposes of analysis, we employed a quasi-Poisson time series regression model, within a distributed non-linear lag model by exposure variable and city. The relative risks of cold- and heat-related calls were estimated for each city and temperature model. Results. A total of 70,537 calls were evaluated, most of which were associated with low maximum and minimum temperatures on cold days in both cities. At maximum temperatures, significant cold-related effects were observed at lags of 3-6 days in Vigo and 5-11 days in A Coruña. At minimum temperatures, cold-related effects registered a similar pattern in both cities, with significant relative risks at lags of 4 to 12 days in A Coruña. Heat-related effects did not display a clearly significant pattern. Conclusions. An increase in cardiovascular morbidity is observed with moderately low temperatures without extremes being required to establish an effect. Public health prevention plans and warning systems should consider including moderate temperature range in the prevention of cardiovascular morbidity.
