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Human Climate Horizons (HCH)

Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND: More than 80,000 dengue cases including 215 deaths were reported nationally in less than 7 months between 2016 and 2017, a fourfold increase in the number of reported cases compared to the average number over 2010-2016. The region of Negombo, located in the Western province, experienced the greatest number of dengue cases in the country and is the focus area of our study, where we aim to capture the spatial-temporal dynamics of dengue transmission. METHODS: We present a statistical modeling framework to evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of the 2016-2017 dengue outbreak in the Negombo region of Sri Lanka as a function of human mobility, land-use, and climate patterns. The analysis was conducted at a 1?km?×?1?km spatial resolution and a weekly temporal resolution. RESULTS: Our results indicate human mobility to be a stronger indicator for local outbreak clusters than land-use or climate variables. The minimum daily temperature was identified as the most influential climate variable on dengue cases in the region; while among the set of land-use patterns considered, urban areas were found to be most prone to dengue outbreak, followed by areas with stagnant water and then coastal areas. The results are shown to be robust across spatial resolutions. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the potential value of using travel data to target vector control within a region. In addition to illustrating the relative relationship between various potential risk factors for dengue outbreaks, the results of our study can be used to inform where and when new cases of dengue are likely to occur within a region, and thus help more effectively and innovatively, plan for disease surveillance and vector control.

Climate change risk assessment for Kurunegala, Sri Lanka: Water and heat waves

Sri Lanka is experiencing various social and environmental challenges, including drought, storms, floods, and landslides, due to climate change. One of Sri Lanka’s biggest cities, Kurunegala, is a densely populated city that is gradually turning into an economic revitalization area. This fast-growing city needs to establish an integrated urban plan that takes into account the risks of climate change. Thus, a climate change risk assessment was conducted for both the water and heat wave risks via discussions with key stakeholders. The risk assessment was conducted as a survey based on expert assessment of local conditions, with awareness surveys taken by residents, especially women. The assessment determined that the lack of drinking water was the biggest issue, a problem that has become more serious due to recent droughts caused by climate change and insufficient water management. In addition, the outbreak of diseases caused by heat waves was identified as a serious concern. Risk assessment is integral to developing an action plan for minimizing the damage from climate change. It is necessary to support education and awareness in developing countries so that they can perform risk assessment well and develop both problem-solving and policy-making abilities to adapt to a changing climate.

Coherence of dengue incidence and climate in the wet and dry zones of Sri Lanka

Climatological, virological and sociological drivers of current and projected dengue fever outbreak dynamics in Sri Lanka

Climate change induced vulnerability and adaption for dengue incidence in Colombo and Kandy districts: The detailed investigation in Sri Lanka

Assessment of drought resilience of hospitals in Sri Lanka: A cross-sectional survey

Assessment of environmental variability on malaria transmission in a malaria-endemic rural dry zone locality of Sri Lanka: The wavelet approach

The correlation between local weather and leptospirosis incidence in Kandy district, Sri Lanka from 2006 to 2015

Evaluation of the effects of Aedes vector indices and climatic factors on dengue incidence in Gampaha District, Sri Lanka

A comprehensive analysis on abundance, distribution, and bionomics of potential malaria vectors in Mannar District of Sri Lanka

The association between local meteorological changes and exacerbation of acute wheezing in Kandy, Sri Lanka

Evaluating temporal patterns of snakebite in Sri Lanka: The potential for higher snakebite burdens with climate change

Direct microscopy of stool samples for determining the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminthic infections among primary school children in Kaduwela MOH area of Sri Lanka following floods in 2016

Climate change and food security: A Sri Lankan perspective

A forecasting model for dengue incidence in the District of Gampaha, Sri Lanka

Examining adaptations to water stress among farming households in Sri Lanka’s dry zone

Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue and climate characteristics for two clusters in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016

Effect of climatic factors and population density on the distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS based evaluation for prediction of outbreaks

The correlation between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature of Colombo district, Sri Lanka 2005-2014

Sustaining food self-sufficiency of a nation: The case of Sri Lankan rice production and related water and fertilizer demands

A spatial hierarchical analysis of the temporal influences of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and weather on dengue in Kalutara District, Sri Lanka

The interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in a Sri Lankan city and its potential applications

Space-time clustering characteristics of dengue based on ecological, socio-economic and demographic factors in northern Sri Lanka

A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned

The influence of social factors towards resurgent malaria and its mitigation using Sri Lanka as a case-study

Changing the planting date as a climate change adaptation strategy for rice production in Kurunegala district, Sri Lanka

The impact of the Tsunami on hospitalizations at the tertiary care hospital in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka

Family context of mental health risk in Tsunami affected mothers: Findings from a pilot study in Sri Lanka

Climatic factors and the occurrence of dengue fever, dysentery and leptospirosis in sri-lanka 1996-2010: a retrospective study: technical report

Flash Flood Guidance System with Global Coverage (FFGS)