Intersectoral collaborations are an integral component of the prevention and control of diseases in a complex health system. On the one hand, One Health (OH) is promoting the establishment of intersectoral collaborations for prevention at the human-animal-environment interface. On the other hand, operationalising OH can only be realized through intersectoral collaborations. This work contributes to broadening the knowledge of the process for operationalising OH by analysing the governance structures behind different initiatives that tackle health problems at the human-animal-environment interface. The cases taken as examples for the analysis are the control and response to rabies and avian influenza under “classical OH”, and the management of floods and droughts for insights into “extended OH”. Data from Ghana and India were collected and compared to identify the key elements that enable ISC for OH. Despite the case studies being heterogeneous in terms of their geographic, economic, social, cultural, and historical contexts, strong similarities were identified on how intersectoral collaborations in OH were initiated, managed, and taken to scale. The actions documented for rabies prevention and control were historically based on one sector being the leader and implementer of activities, while avian influenza management relied more on intersectoral collaborations with clearly defined sectoral responsibilities. The management of the impact of flood and droughts on health provided a good example of intersectoral collaborations achieved by sectoral integration; however, the human health component was only involved in the response stage in the case of Ghana, while for India, there were broader schemes of intersectoral collaborations for prevention, adaptation, and response concerning climate change and disaster.
Objectives Folate is an essential nutrient fundamental to human growth and development. Human milk maintains high folate content across the maternal folate status range, suggesting buffering of milk folate with prioritized delivery to milk at the expense of maternal depletion. We investigated whether and how the extent of this buffering may diminish under prolonged nutritional and/or disease stress, while taking into consideration infants’ varying vulnerability to malnutrition-related morbidity/mortality. Methods A cross-sectional study analyzed milk specimens from northern Kenyan mothers (n = 203), surveyed during a historic drought and ensuing food shortage. Multiple regression models for folate receptor-alpha (FOLR1) in milk were constructed. Predictors included maternal underweight (BMI < 18.5), iron-deficiency anemia (hemoglobin 5 mg/L), folate deficiency (hyperhomocysteinemia, homocysteine >12 or 14 mu mol/L), inflammation (serum C-reactive protein >5 mg/L), infant age and sex, and mother-infant interactions. Results In adjusted models, milk FOLR1 was unassociated with maternal underweight, iron-deficiency anemia and inflammation. FOLR1 was positively associated with maternal folate deficiency, and inversely associated with infant age. There was interaction between infant age and maternal underweight, and between infant sex and maternal folate deficiency, predicting complex changes in FOLR1. Conclusions Our results suggest that mothers buffer milk folate against their own nutritional stress even during a prolonged drought; however, the extent of this buffering may vary with infant age, and, among folate-deficient mothers, with infant sex. Future research is needed to better understand this variability in maternal buffering of milk folate and how it relates to folate status in nursing infants.
Pastoralists in East Africa are among the world’s most vulnerable communities to climate change, already living near their upper thermal limits and engaging in a climate-sensitive livelihood in a climate change global hot spot. Pregnant women and children are even more at risk. Here, we report the findings of a study characterizing Samburu pastoralist women’s experiences of severe drought and outcomes in their children (N = 213, 1.8-9.6 y). First, we examined potential DNA methylation (DNAm) differences between children exposed to severe drought in utero and same-sex unexposed siblings. Next, we performed a high-dimensional mediation analysis to test whether DNAm mediated associations of exposure to severe drought with body weight and adiposity. DNAm was measured using the Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip array. After quality control; batch, chip, and genomic inflation corrections; covariate adjustment; and multiple testing correction, 16 CpG sites were differentially methylated between exposed and unexposed children, predominantly in metabolism and immune function pathways. We found a significant indirect effect of drought exposure on child body weight through cg03771070. Our results are the first to identify biological mediators linking severe drought to child growth in a low-income global hot spot for climate change. A better understanding of the mechanisms underlying the association between drought exposure and child growth is important to increasing climate change resilience by identifying targets for intervention.
There is growing evidence that early life conditions are important for outcomes during adolescence, including cognitive development and education. Economic conditions at the time children enter school are also important. We examine these relationships for young adolescents living in a low-income drought-prone pastoral setting in Kenya using historical rainfall patterns captured by remote sensing as exogenous shocks. Past rainfall shocks measured as deviations from local long-term averages have substantial negative effects on the cognitive development and educational achievement of girls. Results for the effects of rainfall shocks on grades attained, available for both girls and boys, support that finding. Consideration of additional outcomes suggests the effects of rainfall shocks on education are due to multiple underlying mechanisms including persistent effects on the health of children and the wealth of their households, underscoring the potential value of contemporaneous program and policy responses to such shocks.
Each year there are over 300 natural disasters globally with millions of victims that cost economic losses near USD$100 billion. In the context of climate change, an emerging literature linking extreme weather events to HIV infections suggests that efforts to control the HIV epidemic could be under threat. We used Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data collected during the 2015-2016 harsh drought that affected several areas of Malawi to provide new evidence on the effect of an unanticipated economic shock on sexual behaviours of young women and men. We find that amongst women employed in agriculture, a six-months drought doubles their likelihood of engaging in transactional sex compared to women who were not affected by the drought and increases their likelihood of having a sexually transmitted infections (STI) by 48% in the past twelve months. Amongst men employed outside of agriculture, drought increases by 50% the likelihood of having a relationship with a woman engaged in transactional sex. These results suggest that women in agriculture experiencing economic shocks as a result of drought use transactional sex with unaffected men, i.e. men employed outside agriculture, as a coping mechanism, exposing themselves to the risk of contracting HIV. The effect was especially observed among non-educated women. A single drought in the last five years increases HIV prevalence in Malawi by around 15% amongst men and women. Overall, the results confirm that weather shocks are important drivers of risky sexual behaviours of young women relying on agriculture in Africa. Further research is needed to investigate the most adequate formal shock-coping strategies to be implemented in order to limit the negative consequences of natural disasters on HIV acquisition and transmission.
The effects of adverse prenatal conditions are not only experienced over the life course but can be passed on intergenerationally. The present study took advantage of a natural experiment from three drought periods of 1981/82, 1987/88, and 1992/93 that occurred in Malawi with varying severity and used data from a randomized clinical trial (RCT), conducted between 2011-2015 (Protocol #NCT01239693). The present study aimed to assess the effect of the interactions between maternal exposure to drought in early life and prenatal supplementation with a novel supplement [small quantity (SQ), lipid-based nutrient supplement (LNS)], the standard of care prenatal supplement [iron-folic acid or IFA], or a close substitute of the standard of care [multiple micronutrients or MMN], on subsequent infant birth outcomes. During data analysis, ordinary least squares were used to run multiple regressions. The regression results were as follows. When there was no maternal exposure to drought, SQ-LNS compared to IFA appeared to improve subsequent infant birth outcomes for length-for-age Z score or LAZ (0.403 standard deviation (SD), Confidence interval CI [0.099, 0.708]), for subsequent infant weight-for-age Z score or WAZ (0.372 SD, CI [0.053, 0.691]), and for imputed infant birthweight or BTW (125.900 g, CI [2.901, 248.899]). In conclusion, the results show a pattern emerging whereby some positive associations can be observed, specifically, when maternal non-drought exposure variables and the SQ-LNS variable interact. Their combined effects on subsequent infant birth outcomes notably subsequent infant LAZ, subsequent infant WAZ, and subsequent infant imputed BWT appear to be positive.
INTRODUCTION: Over the past 30 years, south-central Somalia, Puntland (north-east) and Somaliland (north-west) have experienced recurring drought- and conflict-related crises. By the end of 2018, the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the region had reached 2.6 million; most were displaced to larger towns under government control, where humanitarian assistance was more accessible. Understanding the drivers of crisis-related displacement can provide insight into how responses can best manage and respond to displacement to prevent downstream morbidity and mortality. We aimed to explore the temporal patterns and crisis-related risk factors for population displacement in Somalia from 2016 to 2018, a period of severe drought. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study of secondary panel data stratified by district and month. The study population included all people in the region from 2016 to 2018. The outcome was defined as the number of new out-migrating internally displaced persons (IDPs) per district-month. Exposure variables included armed conflict, rainfall, food insecurity and food security services. Lags at one, two and three months were generated to explore possible delayed effects. All univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using negative binomial regression models with mixed effects incorporating the district as a random effect. RESULTS: From 2016 to 2018, the proportion of IDPs increased from 9% to 25% in Somalia, Puntland and Somaliland. We observed strong associations between IDP out-migration rate and failed rains at a three-month lag, food insecurity at a one-month lag, and the presence of therapeutic food services with no lag. IDP out-migration rate was not associated with armed conflict intensity, and cash- and rations-based food security services. DISCUSSION: This study identified temporal, and socially and biologically plausible associations between key crisis-related risk factors and displacement in Somalia. The findings suggest a sequence of events spanning a few months, where failed rains and consequent food insecurity likely prompted early population out-migration to larger urban centers where humanitarian services were more accessible. The presence of therapeutics-based food security services could represent a more general correlate of crisis severity and the decision to migrate.
In 2015, South Africa experienced one of the worst (El Ni??o-induced) droughts in 35 years. This affected economic activities, individual and community livelihoods and wellbeing especially in rural communities in northern KwaZulu-Natal. Drought’s direct and indirect impacts on public health require urgent institutional responses, especially in South Africa’s stride to eliminate HIV as a public health threat by 2030 in line with the UNAIDS goals. This paper draws on qualitative data from interviews and policy documents to discuss how the devastating effect of the 2015 drought experience in the rural Hlabisa sub-district of uMkhanyakude, a high HIV prevalence area, imposes an imperative for more proactive institutional responses to drought and other climate-related events capable of derailing progress made in South Africa’s HIV/AIDS response. We found that drought had a negative impact on individual and community livelihoods and made it more difficult for people living with HIV to consistently engage with care due to economic losses from deaths of livestock, crop failure, food insecurity, time spent in search of appropriate water sources and forced relocations. It also affected government institutions and their interventions. Interviewed participants’ reflections on drought-related challenges, especially those related to institutional and coordination challenges, showed that although current policy frameworks are robust, their implementation has been stalled due to complex reporting systems, and inadequate interdepartmental collaboration and information sharing. We thus argue that to address the gaps in the institutional responses, there is a need for more inclusive systems of drought-relief implementation, in which government departments, especially at the provincial and district levels, work with national institutions to better share data/information about drought-risks in order to improve preparedness and implementation of effective mitigation measures.
In 2015 and 2016, South Africa experienced a severe drought resulting in water restrictions and food price inflation. A year later, while the proportion of food secure households remained constant, the proportion of those experiencing severe food insecurity increased. This paper investigates the socio-economic determinants of increasing food insecurity during and after the drought. Two cross-sectional household surveys were carried out in the district of iLembe in November 2016 and 2017. Household food insecurity was measured using the Coping Strategies Index. The results indicated changes in socio-economic determinants of food insecurity over time, with the poorest households experiencing the worst levels of food insecurity. After the drought, having a child under-five years was positively associated with food insecurity, while being located in a rural area was negatively associated. Policies that limit household vulnerability to price inflation, and interventions that protect poorer households from the effects of drought should be considered.
The 2015 El Nin & SIM;o-triggered drought in Southern Africa caused widespread economic and livelihood disruption in South Africa, imposing multiple physical and health challenges for rural populations including people living with HIV (PLHIV). We examined the economic, social and demographic impacts of drought drawing on 27 in-depth interviews in two cohorts of PLHIV in Hlabisa, uMkhanyakude district, KwaZulu-Natal. Thematic analysis revealed how drought enforced soil water depletion, dried-up rivers, and dams culminated in a continuum of events such as loss of livestock, reduced agricultural production, and insufficient access to water and food which was understood to indirectly have a negative impact on HIV treatment adherence. This was mediated through disruptions in incomes, livelihoods and food systems, increased risk to general health, forced mobility and exacerbation of contextual vulnerabilities linked to poverty and unemployment. The systems approach, drawn from interview themes, hypothesises the complex pathways of plausible networks of impacts from drought through varying socioeconomic factors, exacerbating longstanding contextual precarity, and ultimately challenging HIV care utilisation. Understanding the multidimensional relationships between climate change, especially drought, and poor HIV care outcomes through the prism of contextual vulnerabilities is vital for shaping policy interventions.
BACKGROUND: Climate-induced disruptions like drought can destabilize household and community livelihoods, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This qualitative study explores the impact of severe and prolonged droughts on gendered livelihood transitions, women’s social and financial wellbeing, and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes in two Zambian provinces. METHODS: In September 2020, in-depth interviews (n = 20) and focus group discussions (n = 16) with 165 adult women and men in five drought-affected districts, as well as key informant interviews (n = 16) with civic leaders and healthcare providers, were conducted. A team-based thematic analysis approach, guided by the Framework Method, was used to code transcript text segments, facilitating identification and interpretation of salient thematic patterns. RESULTS: Across districts, participants emphasized the toll drought had taken on their livelihoods and communities, leaving farming households with reduced income and food, with many turning to alternative income sources. Female-headed households were perceived as particularly vulnerable to drought, as women’s breadwinning and caregiving responsibilities increased, especially in households where women’s partners out-migrated in search of employment prospects. As household incomes declined, women and girls’ vulnerabilities increased: young children increasingly entered the workforce, and young girls were married when families could not afford school fees and struggled to support them financially. With less income due to drought, many participants could not afford travel to health facilities or would resort to purchasing health commodities, including family planning, from private retail pharmacies when unavailable from government facilities. Most participants described changes in fertility intentions motivated by drought: women, in particular, expressed desires for smaller families, fearing drought would constrain their capacity to support larger families. While participants cited some ongoing activities in their communities to support climate change adaptation, most acknowledged current interventions were insufficient. CONCLUSIONS: Drought highlighted persistent and unaddressed vulnerabilities in women, increasing demand for health services while shrinking household resources to access those services. Policy solutions are proposed to mitigate drought-induced challenges meaningfully and sustainably, and foster climate resilience.
The assessment of the vulnerability to drought hazards in smallholder farming systems dependent on rain-fed agriculture has recently gained global popularity, given the need to identify and prioritize climate hotspots for climate adaptation. Over the past decade, numerous studies have focused on vulnerability assessments with respect to drought and other meteorological hazards. Nonetheless, less research has focused on applying common measurement frameworks to compare vulnerability in different communities and the sources of such vulnerability. Yet, the crucial question remains: who is more vulnerable and what contributes to this vulnerability? This article is a case study for assessing the vulnerability to drought of smallholder farmers in two wards in Chivi district, Masvingo Province, Zimbabwe. This study is timely, as climate change is increasingly affecting populations dependent on rainfed agriculture. This assessment has been conducted by calculating the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI-IPCC). This empirical study used data from 258 households from the two wards and triangulated it through Key Informant Interviews and Focus Group Discussions. To calculate the LVI, twenty-six subcomponents made up of seven major components, including socio-demographic variables; livelihood strategies; social capital; access to food, health, and water; and exposure to drought, were considered. To calculate the LVI-IPCC, we combined the three contributing factors of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity). Our results indicate that the LVI forward 14 is statistically higher than for ward 19 (F = 21.960; p <= 0.01) due to high exposure to drought, food insecurity, and compromised social networks. Concerning the LVI-IPCC, ward 14 was significantly more vulnerable to the impacts of drought than ward 19 (F = 7.718; p <= 0.01). Thus, reducing exposure to drought through early warning systems, building diversified agricultural systems, and social networks are of high priority to reduce the vulnerability of the farmers.
Climate change-induced extreme weather events such as drought have occurred with increasing frequency and intensity in Zimbabwe over the past 30 years bringing about pressure on communally owned water resources. Using the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee 2020 survey of rural households in Zimbabwe, this study assesses the impact of drought shock on the occurrence of water point violence. The impact of self-reported drought shock on the likelihood of occurrence of social conflict in the form of water point violence is subject to confounding due to selection bias. Using the doubly robust inverse probability weighted regression adjustment to account for confounding, we investigate gender dimensions of the impact of drought on inducing water point violence in rural Zimbabwe. The study offers three major findings. First, drought shock is associated with increased household propensity to experience water point violence. Second, the severity of the drought shock impact increases the probability of the household experiencing water point violence. Third, drought shock-induced water point violence is only statistically valid for households where the water-fetcher is a woman or girl. The results suggest that the impact of drought shocks on water point violence is gendered and disadvantages women and girls more than men and boys.
INTRODUCTION: Zimbabwe experienced the negative effects of the devastating cyclone Idai which affected several districts in the country, and the drought due to low rainfall that has affected the whole country. As a result of these catastrophes, the food and nutrition security situation in the country has deteriorated. For this reason, we carried out a rapid assessment of the health facilities in 19 sampled high global acute malnutrition and high food insecurity districts from the ten provinces of Zimbabwe to ascertain the preparedness of the facilities to respond to drought effects. METHODS: we conducted a rapid nutritional assessment in 19 purposely selected districts with highest rates of global acute malnutrition from the 10 provinces of Zimbabwe. From these districts, we selected a district hospital and a rural health facility with high number of acute malnutrition cases. We adapted and administered the WHO recommended checklist (Multi-Cluster/Sector Initial Rapid Assessment (MIRA) as the assessment tool. We used STATA to generate frequencies, and proportions. RESULTS: about 94% (16/19) of the districts had less than 50% health workers trained to manage acute malnutrition. A total of 26% (5/19) of the district hospitals and 32% (6/19) of the primary health care facilities were not admitting according to integrated management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) protocol. Twelve districts (63%) had none of their staff trained in infant and young child feeding (IYCF), 58% (11/19) had no staff trained in growth monitoring and 63% (12/19) of the districts had no trained staff in baby friendly hospital initiative (BFHI). A total of 60% of the provinces did not have combined mineral vitamin mix stocks, 80% had no resomal stocks, 20% did not have micronutrient powder stocks and 30% had no ready to use supplementary food stocks in all their assessed facilities. Fifty percent (50%) of the health facilities were not adequately stocked with growth monitoring cards. Manicaland had the least (20%) number of health facility with a registration system to notify cases of malnutrition. CONCLUSION: we concluded that the Zimbabwe health delivery system is not adequately prepared to respond to the effects of the current drought as most health workers had inadequate capacity to manage acute malnutrition, the nutrition surveillance was weak and inadequate stocks of commodities and anthropometric equipment was noted. Following this, health workers from six of ten provinces were trained on management of acute malnutrition, procurement of some life -saving therapeutic and supplementary foods was done. We further recommend food fortification as a long-term plan, active screening for early identification of malnutrition cases and continuous training of health workers.
Droughts are associated with several health effects and Africa is uniquely vulnerable. Despite this, there has been no previous review of the literature on the health effects of drought in Africa. This study systematically reviewed the epidemiological research on the association between drought and adverse health effects in Africa (2012-2019). A total of fifteen articles were included in the review after screening 1922 published (peer-reviewed) and unpublished articles. These studies were all conducted in 9 Sub-Saharan African countries. The drought-related health effects identified were on adverse nutritional health (n = 8) including malnutrition resulting in reduced body size and wasting, stunting and underweight, mortality from food insecurity, anaemia from food insecurity and nutrition-related disability from food insecurity; drought and diseases due to microbial contamination of water (n = 6) including cholera, diarrhoeal diseases, scabies, vector-borne diseases and malaria-related mortality; and drought and health behaviours (n = 1) including HIV prevention and care behaviours. The study found limited evidence of a high prevalence of malnutrition, an increased prevalence of anaemia, cholera, scabies, dengue and an increased incidence in child disabilities during periods of drought. Additionally, there was limited evidence on improved child nutritional health with improved water and sanitation access, and an increased prevalence of child wasting, stunting and underweight in drought-prone areas. No evidence of drought on other health outcomes was found. However, all the studies had more than one limitation including weak study design, a lack of comparison to a drought period, uncertainty on the onset and end of drought, lack of control for confounding, presence of contextual factors, weak outcome and/or exposure measure, small sample size and lack of generalizability. This review found weak evidence for all health outcomes measured but highlights key areas for further research and contextual factors which need to be considered for interventions.
Droughts are associated with poor health outcomes and disruption of public health programming. Data on the association between drought and HIV testing and transmission risk behaviors are limited. We combined data from Demographic and Health Surveys from 10 high HIV prevalence sub-Saharan African countries with a high-resolution measure of drought. We estimated the association between drought and recent HIV testing, report of condomless sex, and number of sexual partners in the last year. Respondents exposed to drought were less likely to have an HIV test and more likely to have condomless sex, although effect sizes were small. We found evidence for effect modification by sex and age for the association between drought and HIV testing, such that the negative association between drought and HIV testing was strongest among men (marginal risk ratio [mRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89-0.95) and adolescents (mRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.86-0.93). Drought may hinder HIV testing programs in countries with high HIV prevalence.
Climate change is directly and indirectly linked to human health, including through access to treatment and care. Our systematic review presents a systems understanding of the nexus between drought and antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence in HIV-positive individuals in the African setting. Narrative synthesis of 111 studies retrieved from Web of Science, PubMed/MEDLINE, and PsycINFO suggests that livelihoods and economic conditions, comorbidities and ART regimens, human mobility, and psychobehavioural dispositions and support systems interact in complex ways in the drought-ART adherence nexus in Africa. Economic and livelihood-related challenges appear to impose the strongest impact on human interactions, actions, and systems that culminate in non-adherence. Indeed, the complex pathways identified by our systems approach emphasise the need for more integrated research approaches to understanding this phenomenon and developing interventions.
Objectives This study of Samburu pastoralists (Kenya) employs a same-sex sibling design to test the hypothesis that exposure in utero to severe drought and maternal psychosocial stress negatively influence children’s growth and adiposity. As a comparison, we also hypothesized that regional climate contrasts would influence children’s growth and adiposity based on ecogeographical patterning. Materials and Methods Anthropometric measurements were taken on Samburu children ages 1.8-9.6 years exposed to severe drought in utero and younger same-sex siblings (drought-exposed, n = 104; unexposed, n = 109) in two regions (highland, n = 128; lowland, n = 85). Mothers were interviewed to assess lifetime and pregnancy-timed stress. Results Drought exposure associated to lower weight-for-age and higher adiposity. Drought did not associate to tibial growth on its own but the interaction between drought and region negatively associated to tibial growth in girls. In addition, drought exposure and historically low rainfall associated to tibial growth in sensitivity models. A hotter climate positively associated to adiposity and tibial growth. Culturally specific stressors (being forced to work too hard, being denied food by male kin) associated to stature and tibial growth for age. Significant covariates for child outcomes included lifetime reported trauma, wife status, and livestock. Discussion Children exposed in utero to severe drought, a hotter climate, and psychosocial stress exhibited growth differences in our study. Our results demonstrate that climate change may deepen adverse health outcomes in populations already psychosocially and nutritionally stressed. Our results also highlight the value of ethnography to identifying meaningful stressors.
This paper evaluates the short-term health effects of in utero drought shock using repeated cross-section household data on Malawi. The main finding reveals that the effects of in utero harvest variability caused by rainfall shocks on child growth indices are driven by the deleterious effects of negative rainfall deviations, namely droughts. Negative rainfall deviation during the agricultural season prior to the gestational period of a child leads to a 21.8 per cent average local level reduction in age-standardized height scores, with the counterpart positive rainfall deviation having no apparent effect. The paper also uses harvest and consumption patterns to establish an important link between early-life malnutrition and growth serving as a precursor for the fetal period programming hypothesis in the literature. The direct impact of embryonic period shocks on growth provides supportive evidence on potential interaction between nutritional and environmental pathways.
BACKGROUND: Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. METHODS: Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO(2) emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth. RESULTS: The best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: Despite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.
Chronic seasonal crop and livestock loss due to heat stress and rainfall shortages can pose a serious threat to human health, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa where subsistence and small-scale farming dominate. Young children are particularly susceptible to undernutrition when households experience food insecurity because nutritional deficiencies affect their growth and development. The increase in the frequency of extreme climate events, including droughts, can potentially pose serious health impacts on children. However, the evidence is inconclusive and rather limited to small-scale local contexts. Furthermore, little is known about the differential impacts of droughts on the health of population subgroups. This study contributes to the literature by using data from three nationwide Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for Ethiopia conducted in 2005, 2011 and 2016 (n = 21,551). Undernutrition, measured as stunting and wasting among children under five, is used as a health indicator. Droughts are identified using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), a multi-scalar drought index. This study found that drought exposure during the main agricultural season (meher) increased the risk of both chronic undernutrition (stunting) and acute undernutrition (wasting) among under-five children in Ethiopia, however, the impacts vary with population subgroups. Boys, children born to uneducated mothers, and those living in the rural area and whose households are engaged in agricultural activities were more likely to be affected. This suggests that nutritional intervention should target these particularly vulnerable groups of the population. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A healthy and a dignified life experience requires adequate water, sanitation, and hygiene (WaSH) coverage. However, inadequate WaSH resources remain a significant public health challenge in many communities in Southern Africa. A systematic search of peer-reviewed Researchs from 2010 -May 2022 was undertaken on Medline, PubMed, EbscoHost and Google Scholar from 2010 to May 2022 was searched using combinations of predefined search terms with Boolean operators. Eighteen peer-reviewed articles from Southern Africa satisfied the inclusion criteria for this review. The general themes that emerged for both barriers and facilitators included geographical inequalities, climate change, investment in WaSH resources, low levels of knowledge on water borne-diseases and ineffective local community engagement. Key facilitators to improved WaSH practices included improved WaSH infrastructure, effective local community engagement, increased latrine ownership by individual households and the development of social capital. Water and sanitation are critical to ensuring a healthy lifestyle. However, many people and communities in Southern Africa still lack access to safe water and improved sanitation facilities. Rural areas are the most affected by barriers to improved WaSH facilities due to lack of WaSH infrastructure compared to urban settings. Our review has shown that, the current WaSH conditions in Southern Africa do not equate to the improved WaSH standards described in SDG 6 on ensuring access to water and sanitation for all. Key barriers to improved WaSH practices identified include rurality, climate change, low investments in WaSH infrastructure, inadequate knowledge on water-borne illnesses and lack of community engagement.
Water scarcity is a global challenge, yet existing responses are failing to cope with current shocks and stressors, including those attributable to climate change. In sub-Saharan Africa, the impacts of water scarcity threaten livelihoods and wellbeing across the continent and are driving a broad range of adaptive responses. This paper describes trends of water scarcity for Africa and outlines climate impacts on key water-related sectors on food systems, cities, livelihoods and wellbeing, conflict and security, economies, and ecosystems. It then uses systematic review methods, including the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative, to analyse 240 articles and identify adaptation characteristics of planned and autonomous responses to water scarcity across Africa. The most common impact drivers responded to are drought and participation variability. The most frequently identified actors responding to water scarcity include individuals or households (32%), local government (15%) and national government (15%), while the most common types of response are behavioural and cultural (30%), technological and infrastructural (27%), ecosystem-based (25%) and institutional (18%). Most planned responses target low-income communities (31%), women (20%), and indigenous communities (13%), but very few studies target migrants, ethnic minorities or those living with disabilities. There is a lack of coordination of planned adaptation at scale across all relevant sectors and regions, and lack of legal and institutional frameworks for their operation. Most responses to water scarcity are coping and autonomous responses that showed only minor adjustments to business-as-usual water practices, suggesting limited adaptation depth. Maladaptation is associated with one or more dimension of responses in almost 20% of articles. Coordinating institutional responses, carefully planned technologies, planning for projected climate risks including extension of climate services and increased climate change literacy, and integrating indigenous knowledge will help to address identified challenges of water scarcity towards more adaptive responses across Africa.
Droughts are associated with several societal ills, especially in developing economies that rely on rainfed agriculture. Recently, researchers have begun to examine the effect of droughts on the risk of Intimate-Partner Violence (IPV), but so far this work has led to inconclusive results. For example, two large recent studies analyzed comparable data from multiple sub-Saharan African countries and drew opposite conclusions. We attempt to resolve this apparent paradox by replicating previous analyses with the largest data set yet assembled to study drought and IPV. Integrating the methods of previous studies and taking particular care to control for spatial autocorrelation, we find little association between drought and most forms of IPV, although we do find evidence of associations between drought and women’s partners exhibiting controlling behaviors. Moreover, we do not find significant heterogeneous effects based on wealth, employment, household drinking water sources, or urban-rural locality.
Pastoral women in the semi-arid rangelands of East Africa are significantly burdened by the vulnerability to and responsibility for responding to changing climates. Consequently, understanding how adaptation and coping strategies impact pastoral women’s well-being is critical for supporting the climate resilience of communities and the landscapes on which they rely. We used a household survey, guided by a multi-dimensional framework of well-being, to investigate how the use of drought-related coping and adaptation strategies by Samburu households influenced livestock loss and women’s well-being in northern Kenya. Coping and adaptation strategies predicted numerous social-cognitive components of well-being, although not livestock loss. We conjecture these results are a product of a gendered division of labor within households and the community. We argue that interventions aimed at supporting drought resilience must consider the gendered implications of climate response strategies, multiple indicators for evaluation, and the influence of community and place.
Protracted and prolonged droughts lead to famine and substantial decline in agricultural productivity that contribute to food insecurity and hunger in sub-Saharan Africa which needs to explore the risk coping strategies to better target risk mitigation. The main research question of this paper was to analyze ex-post coping strategies and their determinants in rural Ethiopia. We use a cross-section data collected in 2013 from vulnerable rural households in Rayitu district, Bale Zone of Oromia Regional State. Using population-proportionate to size (PPS) sampling technique, a total number of 1,402 households in the district participated in this study. The data were analyzed using a three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. Our analysis confirms that rural households in Rayitu district experience drought and are vulnerable to the consequences of shocks. As a response, rural households adopt interdependent risk coping strategies. This supports the notion of addressing the problem of risk through integrated rural development strategies (and policies) to help the poor to improve the vulnerability to shock and help to escape out of poverty. In addition, we found that the risk coping strategies that households adopt are influenced by the resource holdings and income levels of the rural households, their access to product and financial market, and their socio-demographic characteristics. Hence, we argue that strategies and interventions to improve the livelihood of the poor and to support the vulnerable ones should be targeted to fit to the needs and priorities of households.
BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is a Sub-Saharan country with very high neonatal mortality rates, varying across its regions. The rate of neonatal mortality reduction in Ethiopia is slow, and Ethiopia may not meet the third United Nations sustainable development target by 2030. This study aimed to investigate the spatial variations and contributing factors for neonatal mortality rates in Ethiopia. METHODS: We analysed data from the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS), which used a two-stage cluster sampling technique with a census enumeration area as primary and households as secondary sampling units. A Bayesian spatial logistic regression model using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) method was fitted accounting for socio-economic, health service-related and geographic factors. RESULTS: Higher neonatal mortality rates were observed in eastern, northeastern and southeastern Ethiopia, and the Somali region had higher risks of neonatal mortality. Neonates from frequently drought-affected areas had a higher mortality risk than less drought-affected areas. Application of traditional substances on the cord increased the risk of neonatal mortality (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 2.07, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): 1.12 to 4.30) and getting health facility delivery services had a lower odds of neonatal mortality (AOR = 0.60, 95% CrI: 0.37, 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Residing in drought-affected areas, applying traditional substances on the umbilical cord and not delivering at health facilities were associated with a higher risk of neonatal mortality. Policy-makers and resource administrators at different administrative levels could leverage the findings to prioritise and target areas identified with higher neonatal mortality rates.
BACKGROUND: Globally, understanding spatial analysis of malnutrition is increasingly recognized. However, our knowledge on spatial clustering of malnutrition after controlling for known risk factors of malnutrition such as wealth status, food insecurity, altitude and maternal characteristics is limited from Ethiopia. Previous studies from southern Ethiopia have shown seasonal patterns of malnutrition, yet they did not evaluate spatial clustering of malnutrition. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess whether child stunting and maternal malnutrition were spatially clustered in drought-prone areas after controlling for previously known risk factors of malnutrition. METHODS: We used a community-based cohort study design for a one-year study period. We used SaTScan software to identify high rates of child stunting and maternal malnutrition clustering. The outcome based was the presence or absence of stunting and maternal malnutrition ([BMI] <18.5 kg/m(2)). We controlled for previously known predictors of child stunting and maternal malnutrition to evaluate the presence of clustering. We did a logistic regression model with declaring data to be time-series using Stata version 15 for further evaluation of the predictors of spatial clustering. RESULTS: The crude analysis of SaTScan showed that there were areas (clusters) with a higher risk of stunting and maternal malnutrition than in the underlying at risk populations. Stunted children within an identified spatial cluster were more likely to be from poor households, had younger and illiterate mothers, and often the mothers were farmers and housewives. Children identified within the most likely clusters were 1.6 times more at risk of stunting in the unadjusted analysis. Similarly, mothers within the clusters were 2.4 times more at risk of malnutrition in the unadjusted analysis. However, after adjusting for known risk factors such as wealth status, household food insecurity, altitude, maternal age, maternal education, and maternal occupation with SaTScan analysis, we show that child stunting and maternal malnutrition were not spatially clustered. CONCLUSION: The observed spatial clustering of child stunting and maternal malnutrition before controlling for known risk factors for child stunting and maternal malnutrition could be due to non-random distribution of risk factors such as poverty and maternal characteristics. Moreover, our results indicated the need for geographically targeted nutritional interventions in a drought-prone area.
Evidence on the potential for agricultural intensification to improve nutrition has grown considerably. While small-scale irrigation is a key factor driving agricultural intensification in sub-Saharan Africa, its impact on nutrition has not yet been thoroughly explored. In this study, we assess the impact of adoption of small-scale irrigation in Ethiopia and Tanzania on household and women’s dietary diversity, as well as children’s nutrition. We use two rounds of primary data collected from irrigators and nonirrigators in Ethiopia and Tanzania. We used a panel fixed effects econometric approach to control for observed household, women and children specific characteristics as well as observed and unobserved time-invariant confounding factors. The results show that among Ethiopian households who reported having faced drought, women in irrigating households have higher Women’s Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) compared to women in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, women in irrigating households have higher WDDS compared to nonirrigators and the impact of irrigation on WDDS more than doubles among households facing drought. In addition, among Tanzanian households who reported having faced a drought shock, irrigating households have higher Household Dietary Diversity Score compared to nonirrigators. Children in irrigating households in Ethiopia have weight-for-height z-scores (WHZ) that are 0.87 SDs higher, on average, than WHZ of children in nonirrigating households. In Tanzania, irrigation leads to higher WHZ-scores in children under-five among households who reported having experienced a drought in the 5 years preceding the survey. The study shows small-scale irrigation has a strong effect on households’ economic access to food and on nutritional outcomes of women and children.
Globally, drought impacts more people than any other natural hazard. However, drought is also the most complex natural hazard, and its impacts are not evenly distributed across the landscape or among human populations. Just as the impacts of drought vary, so do the coping strategies used by people during drought. The research to-date on drought coping strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa are highly quantitative, focused on top-down interventions, and do not emphasize individual perceptions, experience, and autonomous decision-making when coping with drought. This paper aims to fill these gaps by examining the human experience of coping with drought through narratives from farmers in Burat and Kinna, Isiolo County, Kenya. This paper highlights (1) their perceived impacts of drought, and (2) the various coping strategies used. A total of 83 interviews were conducted in 20 households. Results found that the perceived impacts of drought were decreased agricultural productivity, livestock hunger, death, and relocation, a lack of water in rivers, human hunger and disease, and violent conflict. The strategies for coping with drought included changing agricultural practices, adopting irrigation, relying on aid, charcoal burning, casual labor, livelihood diversification, and others. Importantly, these coping strategies can be classified into four categories: livelihood diversification, longer-term livelihood strategies, short-term coping activities, and erosive coping strategies. This research contributes to the effort to better document and understand farmers? perceptions and strategies to cope with drought through qualitative research methods and from the perspective of the individual smallholder farmer, which is important for making context-specific policy and project recommendations aimed at smallholder farmers.
Over the last decades, increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to hot weather extremes, heavy precipitation and worsening of agricultural and ecological droughts. Although Africa’s contribution to climate change is minimal, the continent is especially vulnerable to its effects. This report aims to describe the effect of climate change leading to drought in Kilifi County, Kenya, and the communities’ experiences of this effect on food availability. During their community rotation, residents from a university in Nairobi, Kenya, evaluated changes in weather patterns and nutrition indicators in Kilifi County and conducted focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members and health care stakeholders to explore challenges in access to adequate nutrition and possible local solutions. Kilifi County has one of the highest rates of undernutrition in Kenya, with one in five under-5 children being underweight. County data showed that rainfall in the last 4 years has become increasingly unpredictable, resulting in reduced household milk production, one of the indicators of nutrition security. Three major themes emerged from the FGDs: lack of food variety, collapse of drought mitigating projects and increasing poverty levels. Possible solutions to these problems include promoting alternatives to the current diet that are culturally sensitive and adaptable to recent climate changes, ensuring continuity of agricultural and financial support projects and improved local leadership and governance.
Africa has historically seen several periods of prolonged and extreme droughts across the continent, causing food insecurity, exacerbating social inequity and frequent mortality. A known consequence of droughts and their associated risk factors are infectious disease outbreaks, which are worsened by malnutrition, poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene and population displacement. Cholera is a potential causative agent of such outbreaks. Africa has the highest global cholera burden, several drought-prone regions and high levels of inequity. Despite this, research on cholera and drought in Africa is lacking. Here, we review available research on drought-related cholera outbreaks in Africa and identify a variety of potential mechanisms through which these outbreaks occurred, including poor access to water, marginalization of refugees and nomadic populations, expansion of informal urban settlements and demographic risks. Future climate change may alter precipitation, temperature and drought patterns, resulting in more extremes, although these changes are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. Despite high uncertainty in future drought projections, increases in drought frequency and/or durations have the potential to alter these related outbreaks into the future, potentially increasing cholera burden in the absence of countermeasures (e.g. improved sanitation infrastructure). To enable effective planning for a potentially more drought-prone Africa, inequity must be addressed, research on the health implications of drought should be enhanced, and better drought diplomacy is required to improve drought resilience under climate change.
This paper investigates the extent to which in-utero exposure to droughts influences the health outcomes of Bangladeshi children in early childhood. Exploiting the plausibly exogenous deviations of rainfall from the location-specific norms, we find that deficient rainfall during the prenatal period is harmful to child health. Specifically, in-utero exposure to droughts decreases the height-for-age, weight-for-height, and weight-for-age z-scores by 0.10, 0.11, and 0.11 standard deviations among children under five years old, respectively. Our heterogeneity analyses reveal that the adverse health setbacks fall disproportionately on children of disadvantaged backgrounds. Exploring the differential effects by trimesters of exposure, we further show that experiencing droughts during the second and the third trimesters leaves injurious effects on early childhood health.
BACKGROUND: Drought has been a considerable problem for many years in northern Bangladesh. However, the health impacts of drought in this region are not well understood. METHODS: This study analyzed the impact of drought duration and severity on select causes of mortality in northern Bangladesh. Rainfall data from three meteorological stations (Rangpur, Dinajpur and Nilphamari) in northern Bangladesh were used to assess drought and non-drought periods, and the Standardized Precipitation Index was used to categorize mild, moderate, severe, and extreme drought. Mortality data from 2007 to 2017 for the three areas were collected from the Sample Vital Registration System, which is a survey of 1 million people. The generalized linear model with Poisson regression link was used to identify associations between mortality and the drought severity and 1-month preceding SPI. RESULTS: Only severe and extreme drought in the short-term drought periods affected mortality. Long-term drought was not associated with natural cause mortality in Rangpur and Nilphamari. In Dinajpur, mild and moderate drought was associated with circulatory- and respiratory-related mortality. CONCLUSION: The impact of drought on mortality varied by region. This study improves our understanding of how droughts affect specific causes of mortality and will help policy makers to take appropriate measures against drought impacts on selected cause of mortality. Future research will be critical to reduce drought-related risks of health.
Climate change has increased the frequency of drought occurrence in various parts of the world. Drought as a complex phenomenon causes severe impacts on ecological and socio-economic status. Short-term and long-term occurrences of drought have made many regions vulnerable globally. This paper makes an attempt to assess drought vulnerability in Godavari Middle Sub-basin of India. Twenty-four site specific socio-economic and environmental factors were identified based on the extensive literature review. Drought frequency was assessed using standardized precipitation index (SPI). These datasets were divided into training (70%) and testing (30%) data. Frequency ratio (FR) model was utilized to establish relationship among drought conditioning factors and drought frequency. Weights obtained from the FR model were used as input to the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) model. Drought vulnerability results were validated using the testing data and receiver operating characteristic (ROC). The accuracy of ANFIS models for 1-month (0.957), 3-months (0.882), 6-months (0.964) and 12-months (0.938) showed high suitability of ANFIS model for the assessment of drought vulnerability. The findings revealed that very low normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and increasing trend of highest maximum and mean maximum temperature were major environmental factors which influenced high drought vulnerability in the sub-basin. High proportion of area under fallow land, high infant mortality rate (IMR) and moderate literacy rate were identified as major socio-economic factors making watersheds vulnerable during short and long-term droughts. Largest area of the sub-basin was found under high vulnerability for 3-months, followed by 6-months and 12-months droughts. Thus, the study calls for policy intervention towards lessening the impact of drought in highly vulnerable watersheds.
The Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is vital for the livelihood of millions of people in the Indian region; droughts caused by monsoon failures often resulted in famines. Large volcanic eruptions have been linked with reductions in ISMR, but the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. Here, using 145-year (1871-2016) records of volcanic eruptions and ISMR, we show that ISMR deficits prevail for two years after moderate and large (VEI > 3) tropical volcanic eruptions; this is not the case for extra-tropical eruptions. Moreover, tropical volcanic eruptions strengthen El Niño and weaken La Niña conditions, further enhancing Indian droughts. Using climate-model simulations of the 2011 Nabro volcanic eruption, we show that eruption induced an El Niño like warming in the central Pacific for two consecutive years due to Kelvin wave dissipation triggered by the eruption. This El Niño like warming in the central Pacific led to a precipitation reduction in the Indian region. In addition, solar dimming caused by the volcanic plume in 2011 reduced Indian rainfall.
Climate change threatens global sustainability, especially in rural communities of developing countries. In Pakistan, severe impacts of climate change have become evident in the recent past. Large-scale floods in the Indus river system have caused massive damages in the past decade. Also, frequent droughts and heatwaves are among other consequences of the changing climate in the country. Understanding the perspective of local communities regarding climate change adaptation strategies is pivotal to effective policymaking. We surveyed the rural community in the Indus Basin, in southern Punjab, Pakistan, to assess the climate change adaptations currently practiced. We found that the respondents perceive droughts, floods, and disease outbreaks (which are frequently followed by flooding events) as major climate change-induced threats. The respondents used flood and drought-resistant crop varieties, field boundaries (spate irrigation), migration to safe places, and loans as key adaptation strategies. We also assessed the socioeconomic determinants of climate change adaptation behaviour using a binary logistic regression model. Gender, occupation, and education influenced the adaptations to climate change. The present study highlights the need for monetary support to flood-prone communities, better medical facilities, provision of drought and flood-resistant crop varieties, and awareness campaigns to enhance adaptive capacity in the study area.
BACKGROUND: Drought represents a globally relevant natural disaster linked to adverse health. Evidence has shown agricultural communities to be particularly susceptible to drought, but there is a limited understanding of how drought may impact occupational stress in farmers. METHODS: We used repeated measures data collected in the Musculoskeletal Symptoms among Agricultural Workers Cohort study, including 498 Midwestern U.S. farmers surveyed with a Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ) at six-month intervals in 312 counties from 2012 through 2015. A longitudinal linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the change in job strain ratio, a continuous metric of occupational psychosocial stress, during drought conditions measured with a 12-month standardized precipitation index. We further evaluated associations between drought and psychological job demand and job decision latitude, the job strain components, and applied a stratified analysis to evaluate differences by participant sex, age, and geography. RESULTS: During the growing season, the job strain ratio increased by 0.031 (95% CI: 0.012, 0.05) during drought conditions, an amount equivalent to a one-half standard deviation change (Cohen’s D = 0.5), compared to non-drought conditions. The association between drought and the job strain ratio was driven mostly by increases in the psychological job demand (2.09; 95% CI: 0.94, 3.24). No risk differences were observed by sex, age group, or geographic region. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a previously unidentified association between drought and increased occupational psychosocial stress among farmers. With North American climate anticipated to become hotter and drier, these findings could provide important health effects data for federal drought early warning systems and mitigation plans.
This study assesses the potential impact of drought on arsenic exposure from private domestic wells by using a previously developed statistical model that predicts the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations (>10 μg per liter) in water from domestic wells located in the conterminous United States (CONUS). The application of the model to simulate drought conditions used systematically reduced precipitation and recharge values. The drought conditions resulted in higher probabilities of elevated arsenic throughout most of the CONUS. While the increase in the probability of elevated arsenic was generally less than 10% at any one location, when considered over the entire CONUS, the increase has considerable public health implications. The population exposed to elevated arsenic from domestic wells was estimated to increase from approximately 2.7 million to 4.1 million people during drought. The model was also run using total annual precipitation and groundwater recharge values from the year 2012 when drought existed over a large extent of the CONUS. This simulation provided a method for comparing the duration of drought to changes in the predicted probability of high arsenic in domestic wells. These results suggest that the probability of exposure to arsenic concentrations greater than 10 μg per liter increases with increasing duration of drought. These findings indicate that drought has a potentially adverse impact on the arsenic hazard from domestic wells throughout the CONUS.
As is the case for many semi-arid regions globally, drought in the Intermountain West of the United States is a recurrent, costly phenomenon that leaves few aspects of human and natural systems untouched. Here, we focus on drought impact data and evaluation challenges across four non-agricultural sectors: water utilities, forest resources, public health, and recreation and tourism. There are marked commonalities in the way drought indicators-that is, hydrometeorological conditions-are tracked, but considerable differences in how impacts are measured, evaluated, and disseminated. For drought indicator data, researchers and practitioners have a veritable smorgasbord of data at their fingertips. Such data are often spatially and temporally continuous, available at a wide variety of scales, and readily accessible through government-funded online portals. This is in stark contrast to drought impact data, which are typically collected opportunistically, if at all. These data are thus often limited in spatiotemporal scope and difficult to access relative to drought indicators. Concerningly, even within a given sector, the definition of drought impacts, quantitative or otherwise, can vary considerably, making it difficult to evaluate the true cost of drought. Far from being specific to the Intermountain West, these problems are found in most regions experiencing drought. We suggest such challenges are surmountable through the development of a common drought impact framework based around economic damages and purposeful, continuous, government-funded drought impact data collection. These tractable changes will allow for a better quantification of drought’s true impacts under both present conditions and climate change scenarios in the Intermountain West and beyond. This article is categorized under: Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems
BACKGROUND: Climate change will increase drought duration and severity in many regions around the world, including the Central Plains of North America. However, studies on drought-related health impacts are still sparse. This study aims to explore the potential associations between drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014. METHODS: The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) were used to define short-, medium- and long-term drought exposures, respectively. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated censored negative binomial (ZICNB) regression model to estimate the overall association between drought and annual mortality first in the total population and second in stratified sub-populations based on age, race, sex, and the urbanicity class of the counties. RESULTS: The main findings indicate that there is a slightly negative association between all-cause mortality and all types of droughts in the total population, though the effect is statistically null. The joint-stratified analysis renders significant results for a few sub-groups. White population aged 25-34 and 45-64 in metro counties and 45-54 in non-metro counties were the population more at risk in Nebraska. No positive associations were observed in any race besides white. Black males aged 20-24 and white females older than 85 showed protective effect against drought mainly in metro counties. We also found that more sub-populations had higher rates of mortality with longer-term droughts compared to shorter-term droughts (12-month vs 1- or 6-month timescales), in both metro and non-metro counties, collectively. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that mortality in middle aged white population in Nebraska shows a greater association with drought. Moreover, women aged 45-54 were more affected than men in non-metro counties. With a projected increase in the frequency and severity of drought due to climate change, understanding these relationships between drought and human health will better inform drought mitigation planning to reduce potential impacts.
The outcomes of drought can be difficult to assess due to the complexity of its effects. While most risk assessments of drought are developed for agriculture or water resources, the associations with human health are not well studied due to unclear and complex pathways. This study is the first to assess potential changes in health risk from droughts during the last decade in the contiguous United States. To assess the risk, we spatially superimposed vulnerability variables associated with drought on historical drought exposure over the last decade. Different variations in Local Moran’s I statistics were used to assess the spatial distribution of health vulnerability, risk of drought, and changes in the two five-year study periods (2010-2014 and 2015-2019). Our results show large clusters of the western United States had a significant increase in risk during the latter part of the study period due to increases in vulnerability and hazard. In addition, southern areas of the United States were consistently above the national average in drought risk. Since our vulnerability variables include agriculture, drinking water, and sociodemographic indicators, the results of this study can help various experts interested in drought preparedness efforts associated with human health.
As global warming impacts the climate, severe cases of droughts, abnormalities in precipitations, unusual patterns of hurricanes, and excessive heat are becoming more frequent. Excessive heat and droughts in US have made dehydration a problem on construction job sites. Despite the studies about the efficient use of water in buildings post occupancy, little has been explored about water consumption during the construction phase. Given this lack of focus, this study investigates drinking water consumption by construction personnel during construction of a new academic building located in Fort Myers, Florida. Daily potable water consumption data on a jobsite have been recorded during construction through daily interviews with site personnel. Regression analysis is used to examine the existence of correlations between daily humidity, temperature and precipitation data, and daily drinking water consumption by each construction worker. An artificial neural network model is also deployed to examine the existence of such a link.
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production are a global concern and have already begun to occur (Kawasaki 2018 Am. J. Agric. Econ. 101 172-92; Ortiz-Bobea et al 2021 Nat. Clim. Change 11 306-12), with major drivers including warmer temperatures and the occurrence of extreme weather events (Lobell and Field 2007 Environ. Res. Lett. 2 014002; Challinor et al 2014 Nat. Clim. Change 4 287; Rosenzweig et al 2001 Glob. Change Hum. Health 2 90-104; Schlenker and Roberts 2009 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106 15594-8; Lobell et al 2014 Science 344 516-9; Ortiz-Bobea et al 2019 Environ. Res. Lett. 14 064003). An important dimension of the climate change-crop yield relationship that has often been overlooked in the empirical literature is the influence that warming temperatures can have on plant damage arriving through biotic channels, such as pest infestation or fungal infection (Rosenzweig et al 2001 Glob. Change Hum. Health 2 90-104). Aflatoxins are carcinogenic chemicals produced by the fungi Aspergillus flavus and A. parasiticus, which commonly infect food crops. Currently, in the United States, aflatoxin is a perennial contaminant in corn grown in the South, but rare in the Corn Belt and northern states. Climate change may expand aflatoxin’s geographical prevalence, however; because hot, dry summers promote aflatoxin accumulation. Here we model aflatoxin risk as a function of corn plant growth stages and weather to predict US regions with high aflatoxin risk in 2031-2040, based on 16 climate change models. Our results suggest that over 89.5% of corn-growing counties in 15 states, including the Corn Belt, will experience increased aflatoxin contamination in 2031-2040 compared to 2011-2020. Interestingly, the results are spatially heterogeneous and include several southern counties expected to have lower aflatoxin risk, because the causative fungi become inactivated at very high temperatures.
Individually, both droughts and pandemics cause disruptions to global food supply chains. The 21st century has seen the frequent occurrence of both natural and human disasters, including droughts and pandemics. Together their impacts can be compounded, leading to severe economic stress and malnutrition, particularly in developing countries. Understanding how droughts and pandemics interact, and identifying appropriate policies to address them together and separately, is important for maintaining a robust global food supply. Herein we assess the impacts of each of these disasters in the context of food and agriculture, and then discuss their compounded effect. We discuss the implications for policy, and suggest opportunities for future research.
BACKGROUND: Drought is an understudied driver of infectious disease dynamics. Amidst the ongoing southwestern North American megadrought, California (USA) is having the driest multi-decadal period since 800 CE, exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. In this study, we aimed to examine the influence of drought on coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease in southwestern USA. METHODS: We analysed California census tract-level surveillance data from 2000 to 2020 using generalised additive models and distributed monthly lags on precipitation and temperature. We then developed an ensemble prediction algorithm of incident cases of coccidioidomycosis per census tract to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of drought. FINDINGS: Between April 1, 2000, and March 31, 2020, there were 81 448 reported cases of coccidioidomycosis throughout California. An estimated 1467 excess cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in California in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2007 and 2009, and an excess 2649 drought-attributable cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2012 and 2015. These increased numbers of cases more than offset the declines in cases that occurred during drought. An IQR increase in summer temperatures was associated with 2·02 (95% CI 1·84-2·22) times higher incidence in the following autumn (September to November), and an IQR increase in precipitation in the winter was associated with 1·45 (1·36-1·55) times higher incidence in the autumn. The effect of winter precipitation was 36% (25-48) stronger when preceded by two dry, rather than average, winters. Incidence in arid counties was most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations, while incidence in wetter counties was most sensitive to temperature. INTERPRETATION: In California, multi-year cycles of dry conditions followed by a wet winter increases transmission of coccidioidomycosis, especially in historically wetter areas. With anticipated increasing frequency of drought in southwestern USA, continued expansion of coccidioidomycosis, along with more intense seasons, is expected. Our results motivate the need for heightened precautions against coccidioidomycosis in seasons that follow major droughts. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.
From hampering the ability of water utilities to fill their reservoirs to leaving forests parched and ready to burn, drought is a unique natural hazard that impacts many human and natural systems. A great deal of research and synthesis to date has been devoted to understanding how drought conditions harm agricultural operations, leaving other drought-vulnerable sectors relatively under-served. This review aims to fill in such gaps by synthesizing literature from a diverse array of scientific fields to detail how drought impacts nonagricultural sectors of the economy: public water supply, recreation and tourism, forest resources, and public health. We focus on the Intermountain West region of the United States, where the decadal scale recurrence of severe drought provides a basis for understanding the causal linkages between drought conditions and impacts. This article is categorized under: Human Water & Value of Water Science of Water & Water Extremes.
The Great Plains drought of 1931-1939 was a prolonged socio-ecological disaster with widespread impacts on society, economy, and health. While its immediate impacts are well documented, we know much less about the disaster’s effects on distal human outcomes. In particular, the event’s effects on later life mortality remain almost entirely unexplored. Closing this gap would contribute to our understanding of the long-term effects of place-based stress. To help fill this gap, I use a new, massive, linked mortality dataset to investigate whether young men’s exposure to drought and dust storms in 341 Great Plains counties was linked to a higher risk of death in early-old age. Contrary to expectations, results suggest exposure to drought conditions had no obvious adverse effect among men aged 65 years or older at time of death-rather, the average age at death was slightly higher than for comparable men without exposure. This effect also appears to have been stronger among Plainsmen who stayed in place until the drought ended. A discussion of potential explanations for these counterintuitive results is provided.
California is one of the nation’s top agriculture producers and is vulnerable to extreme events such as droughts and heat waves. Concurrent extreme events may further stress water and energy resources, exerting greater adverse socioeconomic, environmental, and health impacts than individual events. Here we examine the features of compound drought, heat wave, and dust events in California during spring and summer. From 2003 to 2020, 16 compound events are found in warm seasons, with a mean duration of similar to 4 days. Compound events are characterized by enhanced surface temperature up to 4.5 degrees C over northern and western California, reduced soil moisture and vegetation density, and an increase in dust optical depth (DOD) by 0.05-0.1 over central and southern California. The enhanced DOD is largely associated with severe vegetation dieback that favors dust emissions and southeasterly wind anomalies that support northward transport of dust from source regions in southern California. Surface fine dust and PM2.5 concentrations also increase by more than 0.5 and 5 mu g m(-3), respectively, during compound events associated with both enhanced dust emissions and a relatively stable atmosphere that traps pollutants. The development of the compound events is related to an anomalous high over the west coast in the lower to middle troposphere, which is a pattern favoring sinking motion and dry conditions in California. The anomalous high is embedded in a wave train that develops up to 7 days before the events. In comparison with heat wave extremes alone, compound events show significantly higher DOD and lower vegetation density associated with droughts.
OBJECTIVE: Ongoing environmental changes increasingly require public health nurses to understand how environmental factors impact the health of populations. One approach to researching these impacts is incorporating environmental research methods to determine associations between harmful exposures and health. We use the Salton Sea in Southern California as a demonstration of how environmental exposure can be examined using air parcel trajectory analysis. DESIGN: We demonstrate a methodology for public health nurses to better understand and apply data from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory meteorological model to estimate the effect of airborne particulate matter from a single source. MEASUREMENTS: We explain a method for tracking air parcel trajectories to populations: selection of meterological data to identify air parcels, geographic identification of population centers, generation of trajectories, classification of trajectory dispersions, adjusting for atmospheric stability, and merging environmental variables with health data. CONCLUSIONS: Climate change-related environmental events are expected to become more commonplace and disproportionately affect those populations impacted by health disparities. Public health nurses can identify communities at risk so that public health nursing researchers can use these techniques in collaboration with environmental science to robustly examine health effects of proximal air pollution sources for communities at risk.
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Natural disasters (NDs) are calamitous phenomena that can increase the risk of infections in disaster-affected regions. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of malaria and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) before and after earthquakes, floods, and droughts during the past four decades in Iran. METHODS: Malaria and CL data were obtained from the reports of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education in Iran for the years 1983 through 2017. The data of NDs were extracted from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Interrupted time series analysis with linear regression modeling was used to estimate time trends of mentioned diseases in pre- and post-disaster conditions. RESULTS: For the periods preceding the disasters drought and flood, a decreasing time trend for malaria and CL was found over time. The time trend of malaria rate preceding the 1990 earthquake was stable, a downward trend was found after 1990 disaster until 1997 (β coefficient: -10.7; P = .001), and this declining trend was continued after 1997 disaster (β coefficient: -2.7; P = .001). The time trend of CL rate preceding the 1990 earthquake had a declining trend, an upward trend was found after 1990 earthquake until 1999 (β coefficient: +8.7; P = .293), and a slight upward trend had also appeared after 1999 earthquake (β coefficient: +0.75; P = .839). CONCLUSION: The results of the current study indicated the occurrence of earthquakes, floods, and droughts has no significant effect on the frequency of malaria and CL in Iran.
Drought and desertification have a significant impact on socio-ecological systems throughout the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. In this context, the impact of desertification and drought was analyzed in the pre-Sahara of Morocco. Additionally, a new conceptual framework combining various variables under the context of drought and desertification impacts was developed. The study area has an arid climate and socio-ecological system-based oases. To achieve the goal of the research, a questionnaire was conceived and distributed to a sample of young people (n = 290 on desertification phenomena and n = 290 on drought). A bibliometric analysis was conducted using VOSViewer software to highlight the structure of research and the Likert technique was used as a statistical method to analyze the results. The findings revealed that the respondents reported that drought has a high impact on desertification and sand silting. Otherwise, mental health is highly at risk and drought affects strongly the revenue, yield, and land use. In terms of solutions, the respondents recorded water safe as the appropriate option to adapt to drought in this area. However, in terms of desertification, interviewees thought that temperature and wind have a very high impact on desertification. Roads are the most impacted by sand silting and desertification followed by irrigation canals, and settlements. Concerning the solutions, tourism has a moderate impact on desertification. Young people thereby are aware of the climatic factors and the psycho-socio-economic impacts. They are also able to identify the appropriate solutions to desertification and drought.
Drinking water provision has been a constant challenge in the Sahrawi refugee camps, located in the desert near Tindouf (Algeria). The drinking water supply system is itself divided in three zones which pump groundwater from different deep aquifers. It is equipped with reverse osmosis plants and chlorination systems for treating water. The allocation of water supplied to the Saharawi refugees for human consumption in 2016 has been estimated at between 14 and 17 L/person/day on average. This supplied water volume is below recommended standards, and also below the strategic objective of the Sahrawi government (20 L/person/day). Yet the local groundwater resources are huge in comparison with estimated consumption, and hence there is great potential for increasing the supplied volume through effecting improvements in the supply system. The physico-chemical quality of the raw and supplied water between 2006 and 2016 has been assessed according to Algerian standards for human consumption. The raw water of two zones of the supply system presents a very high conductivity and high concentrations of chloride, nitrate, fluoride, sulfate, sodium, calcium, potassium and iodide concentrations of natural origin, which may entail health risks. The treatment of water in a reverse osmosis plant greatly improves its quality and osmosed water met the standards. However, the supply of osmosed and raw water needs to be combined in Zone 1, to avoid an excessive reduction in water volume, and the supplied raw water poses a risk to the health of the refugees. The present study provides an example of a drinking water supply system under extreme drought conditions and in the political and social conditions of a refugee camp. Furthermore, it establishes a reference for supplied water allocation and quality in the Sahrawi refugee camps.
Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low-income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture-atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record-breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in-depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.
People living in areas vulnerable to diseases caused by extreme climate change events, such as semiarid regions, tend to recognize them quickly and, consequently, develop strategies to cope with their effects. Our study investigated the perception of diseases by farmers living in the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil and the adaptive strategies locally developed and used. To this end, the effect of the incidence and severity of locally perceived diseases on the frequency of adaptive responses adopted by the farmers was tested. The research was conducted in rural communities in the Pernambuco State, Northeastern Region of Brazil. Semi-structured interviews with 143 farmers were conducted to collect information about major drought and rainfall events, the perceived diseases related to these events, and the adaptive strategies developed to mitigate them. The incidence and severity of diseases perceived by farmers were calculated using the Participatory Risk Mapping method and the frequency of adaptive strategies. Our findings demonstrated that few climate change-related diseases were frequently mentioned by farmers, indicating low incidence rates. Among them, direct transmission diseases were the most frequently mentioned. Adaptive strategies to deal with the mentioned diseases related to prophylactic behavior were less mentioned, except if already utilized. Our model demonstrated that incidence was the only explanatory variable with a significant impact on the adaptive strategies used to deal with the effects of these risks on health. Our findings suggest that the estimated incidence of diseases should be considered in the development of predictive climate change models for government policy measures for the public health security of populations in areas of greater socio-environmental vulnerability.
This article compares urban and rural household water insecurity experiences during the last major drought period (2011-17) in the semi-arid interior region of Ceara, Brazil. Using data from a household survey (N = 322), we determined that households in small urban areas are more and differently water insecure than rural counterparts. Factor analysis and an ordinal logistic regression pinpoint key dimensions, such as water distress, water-sharing and intermittency, contribute differently to water insecurity in rural and urban households. Policy recommendations are made.
A significant fraction of Brazil’s population has been exposed to drought in recent years, a situation that is expected to worsen in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This constitutes a current key environmental health concern, especially in densely urban areas such as several big cities and suburbs. For the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the short-term drought effects on weekly non-external, circulatory, and respiratory mortality was conducted in 13 major Brazilian macro-urban areas across 2000-2019. We applied quasi-Poisson regression models adjusted by temperature to explore the association between drought (defined by the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index) and the different mortality causes by location, sex, and age groups. We next conducted multivariate meta-analytical models separated by cause and population groups to pool individual estimates. Impact measures were expressed as the attributable fractions among the exposed population, from the relative risks (RRs). Overall, a positive association between drought exposure and mortality was evidenced in the total population, with RRs varying from 1.003 [95% CI: 0.999-1.007] to 1.010 [0.996-1.025] for non-external mortality related to moderate and extreme drought conditions, from 1.002 [0.997-1.007] to 1.008 [0.991-1.026] for circulatory mortality, and from 1.004 [0.995-1.013] to 1.013 [0.983-1.044] for respiratory mortality. Females, children, and the elderly population were the most affected groups, for whom a robust positive association was found. The study also revealed high heterogeneity between locations. We suggest that policies and action plans should pay special attention to vulnerable populations to promote efficient measures to reduce vulnerability and risks associated with droughts.
BACKGROUND: Temperature and rainfall patterns are known to influence seasonal patterns of dengue transmission. However, the effect of severe drought and extremely wet conditions on the timing and intensity of dengue epidemics is poorly understood. In this study, we aimed to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of extreme hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk by level of urbanisation in Brazil using a spatiotemporal model. METHODS: We combined distributed lag non-linear models with a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework to determine the exposure-lag-response association between the relative risk (RR) of dengue and a drought severity index. We fit the model to monthly dengue case data for the 558 microregions of Brazil between January, 2001, and January, 2019, accounting for unobserved confounding factors, spatial autocorrelation, seasonality, and interannual variability. We assessed the variation in RR by level of urbanisation through an interaction between the drought severity index and urbanisation. We also assessed the effect of hydrometeorological hazards on dengue risk in areas with a high frequency of water supply shortages. FINDINGS: The dataset included 12 895 293 dengue cases reported between 2001 and 2019 in Brazil. Overall, the risk of dengue increased between 0-3 months after extremely wet conditions (maximum RR at 1 month lag 1·56 [95% CI 1·41-1·73]) and 3-5 months after drought conditions (maximum RR at 4 months lag 1·43 [1·22-1·67]). Including a linear interaction between the drought severity index and level of urbanisation improved the model fit and showed the risk of dengue was higher in more rural areas than highly urbanised areas during extremely wet conditions (maximum RR 1·77 [1·32-2·37] at 0 months lag vs maximum RR 1·58 [1·39-1·81] at 2 months lag), but higher in highly urbanised areas than rural areas after extreme drought (maximum RR 1·60 [1·33-1·92] vs 1·15 [1·08-1·22], both at 4 months lag). We also found the dengue risk following extreme drought was higher in areas that had a higher frequency of water supply shortages. INTERPRETATION: Wet conditions and extreme drought can increase the risk of dengue with different delays. The risk associated with extremely wet conditions was higher in more rural areas and the risk associated with extreme drought was exacerbated in highly urbanised areas, which have water shortages and intermittent water supply during droughts. These findings have implications for targeting mosquito control activities in poorly serviced urban areas, not only during the wet and warm season, but also during drought periods. FUNDING: Royal Society, Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, National Institutes of Health, Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
Understanding the influence of climate change and population pressure on human conflict remains a critically important topic in the social sciences. Long-term records that evaluate these dynamics across multiple centuries and outside the range of modern climatic variation are especially capable of elucidating the relative effect of—and the interaction between—climate and demography. This is crucial given that climate change may structure population growth and carrying capacity, while both climate and population influence per capita resource availability. This study couples paleoclimatic and demographic data with osteological evaluations of lethal trauma from 149 directly accelerator mass spectrometry 14C-dated individuals from the Nasca highland region of Peru. Multiple local and supraregional precipitation proxies are combined with a summed probability distribution of 149 14C dates to estimate population dynamics during a 700-y study window. Counter to previous findings, our analysis reveals a precipitous increase in violent deaths associated with a period of productive and stable climate, but volatile population dynamics. We conclude that favorable local climate conditions fostered population growth that put pressure on the marginal and highly circumscribed resource base, resulting in violent resource competition that manifested in over 450 y of internecine warfare. These findings help support a general theory of intergroup violence, indicating that relative resource scarcity—whether driven by reduced resource abundance or increased competition—can lead to violence in subsistence societies when the outcome is lower per capita resource availability.
Amazonia and the Northeast region of Brazil exhibit the highest levels of climate vulnerability in the country. While Amazonia is characterized by an extremely hot and humid climate and hosts the world largest rainforest, the Northeast is home to sharp climatic contrasts, ranging from rainy areas along the coast to semiarid regions that are often affected by droughts. Both regions are subject to extremely high temperatures and are susceptible to many tropical diseases. This study develops a multidimensional Extreme Climate Vulnerability Index (ECVI) for Brazilian Amazonia and the Northeast region based on the Alkire-Foster method. Vulnerability is defined by three components, encompassing exposure (proxied by seven climate extreme indicators), susceptibility (proxied by sociodemographic indicators), and adaptive capacity (proxied by sanitation conditions, urbanization rate, and healthcare provision). In addition to the estimated vulnerability levels and intensity, we break down the ECVI by indicators, dimensions, and regions, in order to explore how the incidence levels of climate-sensitive infectious and parasitic diseases correlate with regional vulnerability. We use the Grade of Membership method to reclassify the mesoregions into homoclimatic zones based on extreme climatic events, so climate and population/health data can be analyzed at comparable resolutions. We find two homoclimatic zones: Extreme Rain (ER) and Extreme Drought and High Temperature (ED-HT). Vulnerability is higher in the ED-HT areas than in the ER. The contribution of each dimension to overall vulnerability levels varies by homoclimatic zone. In the ER zone, adaptive capacity (39%) prevails as the main driver of vulnerability among the three dimensions, in contrast with the approximately even dimensional contribution in the ED-HT. When we compare areas by disease incidence levels, exposure emerges as the most influential dimension. Our results suggest that climate can exacerbate existing infrastructure deficiencies and socioeconomic conditions that are correlated with tropical disease incidence in impoverished areas.
Compound dry and hot events (CDHEs) have increased significantly and caused agricultural losses and adverse impacts on human health. It is thus critical to investigate changes in CDHEs and population exposure in responding to climate change. Based on the simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), future changes in CDHEs and population exposure are estimated under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios (SSPs) at first. And then the driving forces behind these changes are analyzed and discussed. The results show that the occurrence of CDHEs is expected to increase by larger magnitudes by the end of the 21st century (the 2080s) than that by the mid-21st century (2050s). Correspondingly, population exposure to CDHEs is expected to increase significantly responding to higher global warming (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) but is limited to a relatively low level under the modest emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6). Globally, compared to 1985-2014, the exposure is expected to increase by 8.5 and 7.7 times under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the 2080s, respectively. Regionally, Sahara has the largest increase in population exposure to CDHEs, followed by the Mediterranean, Northeast America, Central America, Africa, and Central Asia. The contribution of climate change to the increase of exposure is about 75% by the 2080s under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, while that of population change is much lower. The conclusion highlights the importance and urgency of implementing mitigation strategies to alleviate the influence of CDHEs on human society.
Previous studies seldom consider humidity when examining heat-related extremes, and none have explored the effects of humidity on concurrent extremes of high heat stress and low river streamflow. Here, we present the first global picture of projected changes in compound lethal heat stress (T-h)-drought hazards (CHD) across 11,637 catchments. Our observational datasets show that atmospheric conditions (e.g., energy and vapor flux) play an important role in constraining the heat extremes, and that T-h (32% +/- 11%) yields a higher coincidence rate of global CHD than wet-bulb temperature (28% +/- 11%), driven by lower relative humidity (RH) and thus air dryness in T-h extremes. Our large model ensemble projects a 10-fold intensification of bivariate CHD risks by 2071-2100, mainly driven by increases in heat extremes. Future declines in RH, wind, snow, and precipitation in many regions are likely to exacerbate such water and weather-related hazards (e.g., drought and CHD).
Climate change is projected to intensify drought conditions, which may increase the risk of diarrheal diseases in children. We constructed log-binomial generalized linear mixed models to examine the association between diarrhea risk, ascertained from global-scale nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys, and drought, represented by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, among children under five in 51 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Exposure to 6-month mild or severe drought was associated with an increased diarrhea risk of 5% (95% confidence interval 3-7%) or 8% (5-11%), respectively. The association was stronger among children living in a household that needed longer time to collect water or had no access to water or soap/detergent for handwashing. The association for 24-month drought was strong in dry zones but weak or null in tropical or temperate zones, whereas that for 6-month drought was only observed in tropical or temperate zones. In this work we quantify the associations between exposure to long-term drought and elevated diarrhea risk among children under five in LMICs and suggest that the risk could be reduced through improved water, sanitation, and hygiene practices, made more urgent by the likely increase in drought due to climate change.
Climate change is likely to increase the risk of drought which impacts on health are not quite known well due to its creeping nature. This study maps the publications on the consequences of drought on human health, directly or indirectly, from January 2008 to December 2018. We searched Scopus, Web of Science, PsycINFO, google scholar and Pubmed. 378 articles were included. Poisson regression analysis was performed to evaluate the relationship between the number of articles and some variables such as the continent of the study, article type, subject, and climate event type (climate change or just drought). Data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2019 and SPSS version 26. Based on the results, Asia had the highest number of publications (91) compared to North America (82), while the number of articles from South America (16) was lower significantly. The majority of articles had used quantitative analysis (175), and review articles were the second most frequent (104). Most of the articles had focused on the social impacts of drought. The number of articles has increased over the years and most of them were not in the health area primarily. Also, a noticeable amount of the knowledge comes from analysis of previously collected data and review articles. To mitigate and reduce the impacts of drought on the different dimensions of health, we need to understand them through more investigations with precise data and methods, especially in less developed countries with a more vulnerable population, and mental health consequences of drought that have been less considered.
Drought may be efficiently managed using the following strategies: prevention, mitigation, readiness, recovery, and transformation. Biotechnological interventions may become highly important in reducing plants’ drought stress in order to address key plant challenges such as population growth and climate change. Drought is a multidimensional construct with several triggering mechanisms or contributing factors working at various spatiotemporal scales, making it one of the known natural catastrophes. Drought is among the causes of hunger and malnutrition, decreasing agricultural output, and poor nutrition. Many deaths caused in children are due to hunger situations, and one in four children face stunted growth. All this hunger and malnutrition may be responsible for the reduction in agricultural productivity caused due to the drought situations affecting food security. Global Hunger Index has been accelerating due to under-nutrition and under-5 deaths. Drought has been covering more than 20% of the world’s agricultural areas, leading to significantly less food production than what is required for consumption. Drought reduces soil fertility and adversely affects soil biological activity reducing the inherent capacity of the soil to support vegetation. Recent droughts have had a much greater effect on people’s lives, even beyond causing poverty and hunger. Drought may have substantial financial consequences across the globe it may cause a severe impact on the world economy. It is a natural feature of the environment that will appear and disappear as it has in history. Due to increasing temperatures and growing vulnerabilities, it will undoubtedly occur more often and seriously in the coming years. To ensure sustainable socio-economic and social development, it is critical to reducing the effects of potential droughts worldwide using different biotechnological interventions. It’s part of a long-term growth plan, and forecasting is essential for early warnings and global hunger management.
INTRODUCTION: Exposure to natural hazards such as fire, drought, floods, and earthquakes can have negative impacts on physical and mental health and wellbeing. The social and structural factors contributing to individual and community vulnerability also influence responses to disaster and the resulting consequences on health and wellbeing. Experiencing disasters like bushfires amplifies the impacts of inequality, magnifying existing disparities and contributing to additional psychological burdens of grief, trauma and adaptive challenge. There is a need to understand how vulnerability can influence responses to disaster, and to identify factors that develop and foster resilience in the context of increasing disasters and vulnerability. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This protocol will describe the methodology of two scoping reviews: the first will describe the mental health outcomes of vulnerable populations after droughts and bushfires; the second will identify and describe strategies that promote community resilience in vulnerable populations in the context of a disaster. A thorough search will be conducted in relevant databases. Studies will be limited to English language. The reviews will be reported using the 22-item checklist for the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses. Methodological quality of the included papers will be assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute’s critical appraisal tools. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS: The two scoping reviews described in this protocol will have broad relevance in the context of increasing and intensifying disasters, and will especially consider the compounded impact of disaster on vulnerable communities. Findings will contribute directly to the design and implementation of solutions to improve post-disaster health and wellbeing and community resilience.
In the middle of the twentieth century, the from North America sooty bark disease (SBD) of maples was first discovered in England and has spread in the last decades in Central Europe, in particular. The trigger of SBD is the mould fungus Cryptostroma (C.) corticale. The most common infested maple is the sycamore, Acer pseudoplatanus, a common tree in woods and parks. The disease is characterised by peeling of the outer layer of the bark and brownish-black spores under the peeled off bark. These spores can cause maple bark disease (MBD) in humans, a hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) with similar symptoms like COPD, allergic asthma, influenza or flu-like infections and interstitial pneumonia. Persons who have intensive respectively occupational contact with infested trees or wood, e.g., woodman, foresters, sawyers or paper mill workers, are at risk in particular. Since C. corticale favours hot summers and host trees weakened by drought, SBD will increasingly spread in the future due to ongoing climate change. Consequently, the risk of developing MBD will increase, too. As with all HPs, e.g., farmer’s lung and pigeon breeder’s disease, the diagnosis of MBD is intricate because it has no clear distinguishing characteristics compared to other interstitial lung diseases. Therefore, the establishment of consistent diagnosis guidelines is required. For correct diagnosis and successful therapy, multidisciplinary expertise including pulmonologists, radiologists, pathologists and occupational physicians is recommended. If MBD is diagnosed in time, the removal of the triggering fungus or the infested maple wood leads to complete recovery in most cases. Chronic HP can lead to lung fibrosis and a total loss of lung function culminating in death. HP and, thus, MBD, is a disease with a very high occupational amount. To avoid contact with spores of C. corticale, persons working on infested wood or trees have to wear personal protective equipment. To protect the public, areas with infested maples have to be cordoned off, and the trees should be removed. This is also for impeding further spreading of the spores.
Climate change can have economic consequences, affecting the nutritional intake of populations and increasing food insecurity, as it negatively affects diet quality parameters. One way to mitigate these consequences is to change the way we produce and consume our food. A healthy and sustainable diet aims to promote and achieve the physical, mental, and social well-being of the populations at all life stages, while protecting and safeguarding the resources of the planet and preserving biodiversity. Over the past few years, several indexes have been developed to evaluate dietary sustainability, most of them based on the EAT-Lancet reference diet. The present review explains the problems that arise in human nutrition as a result of climate change and presents currently available diet sustainability indexes and their applications and limitations, in an effort to aid researchers and policy actors in identifying aspects that need improvement in the development of relevant indexes. Overall, great heterogeneity exists among the indicators included in the available indexes and their methodology. Furthermore, many indexes do not adequately account for the diets’ environmental impact, whereas others fall short in the economic impact domain, or the ethical aspects of sustainability. The present review reveals that the design of one environmentally friendly diet that is appropriate for all cultures, populations, patients, and geographic locations is a difficult task. For this, the development of sustainable and healthy diet recommendations that are region-specific and culturally specific, and simultaneously encompass all aspects of sustainability, is required.
In the recent years, the effects of extreme climate phenomena (mainly heat-related) on agricultural crops, infrastructure and human health have become increasingly severe as a result of their complex interactions with the particularities of the urban/rural habitat, as well as the social and economic factors. In Romania, heat-related phenomena (e.g. drought, heat waves) are affecting wide areas in the southern half of the territory where the study area (Bucharest Metropolitan Area) lies. The paper aims to develop a multi-criteria vulnerability assessment using both quantitative and qualitative methods. 23 indicators were selected and processed in order to assess various components of socio-economic and environmental vulnerability to heat-related phenomena using the statistical data available at local administrative units (LAU). The indicators were grouped into the three key components of vulnerability (potential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) on two dimensions (socio-economic and environmental) resulting two indexes: Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI) and Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI). Finally, an integrated Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) (using Hull score, average 50 and standard deviation 14) was computed.
Public communication on water availability is pivotal in highlighting water conservation needs as droughts impact water resources for critical use, such as drinking water quality and accessibility. This paper presents the results of research into public communication on water availability and the implementation of water conservation measures in the Republic of Ireland. The paper analyses social media (Twitter and Facebook) communication and newspaper publications from 2018 to 2020 on water conservation and drought events, in addition, to undertaking six key stakeholder interviews made up of journalists (n = 4), political representatives (n = 1), and a water and communication expert (n = 1). Our analysis indicates that Irish newspapers’ coverage of drought and water availability was greater in 2018 compared to 2020. Uncertainty and risk was also identified as the prevalent frame, used by newspapers to cover drought events. Although the sentiments in communications on drought by the national utility, Irish Water, were scored as positive (63%), its engagement with the public on social media was considerably limited. Accessible information platforms that provides data and information on water resources were also found; nevertheless, no comprehensive national drought information management system nor national drought plan have been developed. Based on our findings, we demonstrate the need for public engagement and collaborative efforts to communicate drought and water conservation measures led by An Fóram Uisce|The Water Forum. Recommendations made in this study also aim to influence decision-making and awareness among stakeholders regarding drought communication on water conservation and resources availability.
Drought affects the European Alpine mountain region, despite a humid climate. Droughts’ damaging character in the past and increasing probability in future projections call for an understanding of drought impacts in the mountain regions. The European Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIT) collects text reports on negative drought impacts. This study presents a considerably updated EDII focusing on the Alpine region. This first version release of an Alpine Drought Impact report Inventory (EDIIALPS) classifies impact reports into categories covering various affected sectors and enables comparisons of the drought impact characteristics. We analysed the distribution of reported impacts on the spatial, temporal and seasonal scale and by drought type for soil moisture drought and hydrological drought. For the spatial analysis, we compared the impact data located in the Alpine region to the whole of Europe. Furthermore, we compared impact data between different climatic and altitudinal domains (the northern region vs. the southern region and the pre-Alpine region vs. the high-altitude region) and between the Alpine countries. Compared to the whole of Europe, in the Alpine region agriculture and livestock farming impacts are even more frequently reported, especially in the southern region. Public water supply is the second most relevant sector but overall less prominent compared to Europe, especially in spring when snowmelt mitigates water shortages. Impacts occur mostly in summer and early autumn, with a delay between those impacts initiated by soil moisture and those initiated by hydrological drought. The high-altitude region shows this delay the strongest. From 1975 to 2020, the number of archived reports increases, with substantially more impacts noted during the drought events of 1976, 2003, 2015 and 2018. Moreover, reported impacts diversify from agricultural dominance to multi-faceted impact types covering forestry, water quality, industry and so forth. Though EDIIALPS is biased by reporting behaviour, the region-specific results of negative drought impacts across the water-rich European mountain region demonstrate the need to move from emergency response to prevention and preparedness actions. These may be guided by EDIIALPS’ insights to regional patterns, seasons and drought types.
Adaptation to climate change is often understood as a top-down decision-making and policy-implementing process, as well as application of expert knowledge, to prevent or reduce its (locally specific) negative consequences. In high-income societies, adaptation at the household level then frequently refers to adopting technological fixes distributed through the market, sometimes at a considerable cost. Informed by a study in the context of Central Europe, this article aims to discuss different practices of households and individuals that do not require increased consumption of energy or materials, but still help adapting to climate change in some of its local expressions, such as heatwaves and drought. They were described by participants in focus groups in six cities in the Czech Republic. I argue that such ‘inconspicuous adaptations’ emerge without connection to the climate change debate, or without deeper knowledge about the issue. Yet, they should not be overlooked as unimportant and short-term ‘coping responses’ and underestimated in this debate. They are part and parcel of the ongoing process of societal adaptation to climate change.
Increases in the magnitude and frequency of climate and other disruptive factors are placing environmental, economic, and social stresses on coastal systems. This is further exacerbated by land use transformations, urbanization, over-tourism, sociopolitical tensions, technological innovations, among others. A scenario-informed multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was applied in the Metropolitan City of Venice integrating qualitative (i.e., local stakeholder preferences) and quantitative information (i.e., climate-change projections) with the aim of enhancing system resilience to multiple climate-related threats. As part of this analysis, different groups of local stakeholders (e.g., local authorities, civil protection agencies, SMEs, NGOs) were asked to identify critical functions that needs to be sustained. Various policy initiatives were considered to support these critical functions. The MCDA was used to rank the initiatives across several scenarios describing main climate threats (e.g., storm surges, floods, heatwaves, drought). We found that many climate change scenarios were considered to be disruptive to stakeholders and influence alternative ranking. The management alternatives acting on physical domain generally enhance resilience across just a few scenarios while cognitive and informative initiatives provided resilience enhancement across most scenarios considered. With uncertainty of multiple stressors along with projected climate variability, a portfolio of cognitive and physical initiatives is recommended to enhance resilience.
Extreme weather events (EWEs) may significantly increase pathogenic contamination of private (unregulated) groundwater supplies. However, due to the paucity of protective guidance, private well users may be ill-equipped to undertake adaptive actions. With rising instances of waterborne illness documented in groundwater-dependent, developed regions such as the Republic of Ireland, a better understanding of well user risk perceptions pertaining to EWEs is required to establish appropriate educational interventions. To this end, the current study employed an online and physical questionnaire to identify current risk perceptions and correspondent predictors among Irish private well users concerning extreme weather. Respondents were elicited via purposive sampling, with 515 private well users elucidating perceived supply contamination risk in the wake of five EWEs between the years 2013-2018 including drought and pluvial flooding. A novel scoring protocol was devised to quantify overall risk perception (i.e. perceived likelihood, severity and consequences) of extreme weather impacts. Overall risk perception of EWEs was found to demonstrate a significant relationship with gender (p = 0.017) and event experience (p < 0.001), with female respondents and those reporting prior event experience exhibiting higher median risk perception scores. Risk perception was additionally mediated by perceived self-efficacy in undertaking supply maintenance (p = 0.001), as well users citing confidence in ability scored significantly lower than those citing no confidence. Two-step cluster analysis identified three distinct respondent subsets based on risk perception of EWEs (high, moderate and low perception), with female respondents and those with a third-level education significantly more likely to fall within the high perception cluster. Study findings affirm that certain demographic, experiential and cognitive factors exert a significant influence on private well user risk perceptions of EWE impacts and highlight potential focal points for future educational interventions seeking to reduce the risk of human infection associated with groundwater and extreme weather.
INTRODUCTION: The SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused unprecedented social and economic disruption, accompanied by the enactment of a multitude of public health measures to restrain disease transmission. These public health and social measures have had a considerable impact on lifestyle and mental wellbeing, which has been well studied with metropolitan populations. However, limited literature concerning such effects on a selectively rural population is presently available. Additionally, the use of a standardised scoring system for lifestyle may be valuable for an overall assessment of lifestyle that may be incorporated into clinical practice. METHODS: This study examined the associations between psychological distress and changes in SNAPS health behaviours (smoking, nutrition, alcohol, physical activity, sleep) since the onset of COVID-19 in Australia. A cross-sectional anonymous survey was distributed online to adults in the Western New South Wales Primary Health Network in August 2020 and included measures of psychological distress, income, disposition and lifestyle factors during the pandemic as well as changes to lifestyle due to COVID-19. A novel Global Lifestyle Score (GLS) was generated as a holistic assessment of lifestyle across multiple domains. RESULTS: The survey was completed by 304 individuals (modal age group 45-54 years, 86.8% female). High distress on the Kessler-5 scale was present in over one-third of participants (n=95, 33.7%). Detrimental change was reported for sleep (22.7%), nutrition (14.5%), alcohol (16.7%), physical exercise (34.0%) and smoking (24.7%) since the onset of the pandemic. Changes in sleep, nutrition, physical activity and smoking were associated with distress. Participants with a poor lifestyle (GLS) during the pandemic were significantly more distressed. Perceived COVID-19 impact was associated with high distress, drought impact and loss of income. Participants who reported negative impact from both COVID-19 and drought were significantly more distressed than those reporting a negative impact from drought alone or neither event. CONCLUSION: High rates of distress among rural Australians during the COVID-19 pandemic was linked to low GLS, worsening lifestyles and loss of income. Healthy lifestyle strategies should be considered by health professionals for the management of crisis-related distress. Further research may explore the impact of COVID-19 on a larger study population with a greater proportion of male participants and to examine the effect of modifying lifestyle factors in reducing distress in the context of a stressor such as this pandemic.
OBJECTIVE: To identify the modifiable psychological and behavioural coping strategies associated with low levels of psychological distress, independent of more stable personality and demographic factors, in a sample of farmers who reported being exposed to a recent stressful event during an extended drought. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Three hundred and nine South Australian, drought-affected grain, sheep and/or cattle farmers completed printed or online questionnaires. Only those who reported experiencing a stressful event in the past month that they rated ≥7 on a scale ranging from 1 (not stressful at all) to 10 (extremely stressful) were included in the analyses (n = 175, 65.06%). Participants ranged in age from 24 to 85 years and 40% were female. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Psychological distress was measured using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, and coping strategies were measured using a situational version of the COPE inventory. Five personality factors (extraversion, neuroticism, openness, conscientiousness and agreeableness) were assessed using the Quickscales-R. RESULTS: In the final multivariable model, distress was elevated among individuals reporting higher neuroticism and behavioural disengagement, and lower in individuals reporting greater use of acceptance. These 3 variables explained 44% of the variance in distress. CONCLUSION: Farmers recently exposed to a significant stressor, who used acceptance as a coping strategy, did not engage in behavioural disengagement and scored low on neuroticism, were least likely to experience distress. Given the stability of personality factors, interventions that foster farmers’ use of acceptance and prevent behavioural disengagement as coping strategies might assist them with the management of future stressors, particularly in times of drought.
Farming women have rarely been the focus of scholarly work on drought and/or distress. This article focuses on farming women’s lived experience of drought and distress, drawing on a participatory filmmaking project created by a small group of farming women from Southern Australia. Feminist materialism and Barad’s (2003) concept of ‘intra-action’ provides a useful lens to examine both the film as an artefact as well as the discussions among the women during its creation. Intra-action enables an exploration of how farming women’s bodies come into being as distressed in moments of time through and with drought as a complex constellation of multiple ‘matter’. The film and narratives show distressed bodies emerging with dust, wind, objects and the suffering of non-human animals. For these women, distress emerges from hearing, sensing, seeing and feeling the irritation of dirt splattered against window panes, the emotional pain and economic consequences of topsoil blowing across paddocks and as feed becomes hard to source, the recognition of the suffering of sheep. The power of these animate and inanimate ‘things’-windmills, windows, troughs, work boots, animals and soil-were sensorily entangled with women’s bodies. For farming women, distress materialises within their bodies through processes of intra-action in their more-than-human worlds.
Drought is thought to impact upon the mental health of agricultural communities, but studies of this relationship have reported inconsistent results. A source of inconsistency could be the aggregation of data by a single spatiotemporal unit of analysis, which induces the modifiable areal and temporal unit problems. To investigate this, mental health-related emergency department (MHED) presentations among residents of the Wheat Belt region of Western Australia, between 2002 and 2017, were examined. Average daily rainfall was used as a measure of drought. Associations between MHED presentations and rainfall were estimated based on various spatial aggregations of underlying data, at multiple temporal windows. Wide variation amongst results was observed. Despite this, two key features were found: Associations between MHED presentations and rainfall were generally positive when rainfall was measured in summer months (rate ratios up to 1.05 per 0.5 mm of daily rainfall) and generally negative when rainfall was measured in winter months (rate ratios as low as 0.96 per 0.5 mm of daily rainfall). These results demonstrate that the association between drought and mental health is quantifiable; however, the effect size is small and varies depending on the spatial and temporal arrangement of the underlying data. To improve understanding of this association, more studies should be undertaken with longer time spans and examining specific mental health outcomes, using a wide variety of spatiotemporal units.
Long-lasting drought can have a serious impact on human society and even lead to regime change and the demise of civilizations. Case studies will help to understand the evolution and mechanism of drought under different spatiotemporal scales and social contexts, providing references for dealing with the risk brought by extreme drought. In the late 1920s, northern China witnessed an extreme drought, however, the government had done little to deal with it, causing large losses at the time. This extreme drought event can be served as a case study of the social impact of drought. We collected newspaper records during the drought period, processed qualitative records with textual analysis, and explored the impact path of drought on the human system with network analysis. This research draws the following conclusions: (1) The great drought in northern China caused 19 kinds of recorded events to the human system. (2) The transmission process of drought impact on the human system had two characteristics: hierarchical propagation and cascading effects. The former was reflected in the transmission process of drought impacts among natural, supporting and humanity systems, and the latter was reflected in the transmission process of drought impact within the humanity system. (3) The core event of the natural system is “meteorological drought”; the core event of the supporting system is “food production damage”; the core events of the humanity system are “physical health decline” and “eating alternative foods” (population subsystem), “rising of food prices” (economic subsystem) and “bandits” (social subsystem). These events constitute the main network of how drought affected society. (4) The most special event among all events is “food production damage”, which receives most of the effects of meteorological drought, transmits the effects to other systems and controls the transition of drought effects from nature to human society. Strengthening the resilience of food production systems is an important measure to control the escalation of drought effects.
The upstream construction of hydropower dams may drastically intensify climate change impacts due to changing the natural river flood-drought cycle and reducing the amount of water that flows into the lower Mekong Delta river, leading to hydrological and environmental health impacts. However, until now the influence of drought on residents’ health in the lower MDR, where river drought is highly sensitive to recently built hydropower plants, has not been examined. The objectives of this study are, for the first time, to detect the health impacts of river drought on residents and to evaluate the contribution of hydropower dams to the impacts of drought on health in the lower Mekong Delta Region (MDR). We applied the multi-step approaches of a Detection and Attribution study. First, we detected the effects of the river drought on the risk of hospitalization using a Multivariable Fractional Polynomials algorithm (MFP). Second, we linked the long-term changes of the river water level (RWL) to the operation of the first hydropower dam in the upper MDR using the interrupted time-series model (ITS). Finally, we quantified the hospitalizations and related economic loss attributed to the river drought. The results show that the percentage changes in risk of all-cause, respiratory, and renal hospitalizations attributed to the river drought were 2%, 2%, and 7%. There were significant reductions in average level and trend of the RWL during the post-1995 period, when the first hydropower dam began operation in the upper MDR, even though the cumulative rainfall in the MDR had not changed. The all-cause hospitalizations attributed to the river drought were 1134 cases during the period 1995-2014, which resulted in total additional cost at two provincial hospitals of US $360,385. This current study demonstrates the link between hydropower dams, river drought, and health impacts. As the MDR is highly vulnerable to climate change, these findings about the devastating impacts of hydropower dams and environmental change have important implications for the lives of downstream residents.
Loss and Damage studies have tended to focus on rapid-onset events with lesser attention to slow-onset events such as drought. Even when discussed, narratives around droughts emphasize implications on rural populations and there remain empirical and conceptual gaps on drought impacts in urban areas. We focus on losses and damages associated with urban drought and water insecurity through a review of interventions and policies in seven Asian countries. We find evidence of urban droughts leading to tangible losses (e.g. groundwater over-extraction, economic impacts) and intangible losses (e.g. conflict, increased drudgery). We highlight examples of Asian cities minimizing urban drought-related losses and damages through nature-based, institutional, technological, and behavioral adaptation interventions. We argue that water management policies that take into account current and projected L&D of urban droughts as well as beyond-urban dynamics of water availability and sharing are essential for effective climate adaptation.
Background: In this study, we investigated the associations Lake Urmia’s drought to the prevalence of thyroid nodules (TNs) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) among local inhabitants of the lake. Methods: In this cross-sectional study which was started in 2014, we collected data on 992 adults who participated in the Azar cohort study, in Shabestar county, Iran. The sociodemographic status, smoking, and medical history of the subjects living in the areas adjacent to (n = 163) and far from (n = 829) Lake Urmia were collected through questionnaires. After obtaining written consent, anthropometric factors and blood pressure (BP) were measured. The lipid profile and fasting blood glucose (FBG) of the respondents were measured using colorimetric methods, and all underwent thyroid examination and sonography. Furthermore, the size and characteristics of nodules were determined with a fine-needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) method. Results: We did not find any significant difference in the prevalence of TNs between the two groups (P=0.44), whereas the prevalence of MetS were significantly higher among the subjects from the regions that were far from the Lake (P=0.04). After adjustment for confounding factors (age and gender) in both groups, low risk of TNs (OR=1.20, 95% CI:0.89-1.62) and high risk of TNs (OR=1.19, 95% CI:0.65-2.19) were not significantly associated to MetS (P>0.05). Conclusion: In this study, Lake Urmia’s drought was identified to be with no contribution to the prevalence of TNs and MetS. Therefore, long term perspective studies are suggested to reach precise results.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) continued to affect human health across Eurasia, which complicated by climate change has posed a challenge for the disease prevention measures. Nation-wide surveillance data of HFRS cases were collected during 2008-2020.The seasonality and epidemiological features were presented by combining the HFRS incidence and the endemic types data. Factors potentially involved in affecting incidence and shaping disease seasonality were investigated by generalized additive mixed model, distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis. A total of 76 cities that reported totally 111,054 cases were analyzed. Three endemic types were determined, among them the Type I cities (Hantaan virus-dominant) were related to higher incidence level, showing one spike every year in Autumn-Winter season; Type II (Seoul virus-dominant) cities were related to lower incidence, showing one spike in Spring, while Type III (Hantaan/Seoul-mixed type) showed dual peaks with incidence lying between. Persistently heavy rainfall had significantly negative influence on HFRS incidence in Hantaan virus-dominant endemic area, while a significantly opposite effect was identified when continuously heavy rainfall induced floods, where temperature and relative humidity affected HFRS incidence via an approximately parabolic or linear manner, however few or no such effects was shown in Seoul virus-dominant endemic areas, which was more vulnerable to temperature variation. Dual seasonal pattern of HFRS was depended on the dominant genotypes of hantavirus, and impact of climate on HFRS was greater in Hantaan virus-dominant endemic areas, than in Seoul virus-dominant areas.
Drought and flood are two of the most destructive natural disasters with the most significant impact and greatest losses in the Dadu River basin (DRB). However, their impacts on people’s life have not attracted enough attention from scholars. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) describing the drought/flood situation and the Composite Index of Human Well-being (CIHW) are calculated, and a framework is further constructed to assess the impacts of drought and flood disasters on human well-being in the DRB. The results show that the annual and seasonal SPI in the DRB generally exhibit an increasing trend in fluctuations during 2000-2009, indicating a wetting climate in this basin. Overall, the upper reaches of the DRB have experienced an evolution of flood-drought-flood state transition, where the variation amplitude of the SPI in the western sub-basin is greater than that in the eastern sub-basin. In addition, the lower reaches of the DRB have suffered more dramatic and periodic changes from the drought/flood disasters in terms of the SPI. For human well-being during 2000-2019, Maerkang City in the upper reaches, Kangding City in the middle reaches, and Shimian County in the lower reaches of the DRB are at a relatively higher level, with the CIHW decreasing from administrative centers to the around. Moreover, the CIHW over the whole basin increases gradually from 2000 to 2019. The SPI has significantly negative effects on different capitals, following a descending order of financial, social, physical, human and natural capitals. The counties of the basin are divided into four groups, namely the group with high disaster risks and high human well-being, the group with high disaster risks and low human well-being, the group with low disaster risks and high human well-being, and the group with low disaster risks and low human well-being. The panel regression results suggest that the construction of water conservancy facilities, the financial inputs in agriculture and meteorology, and the educational level have positive impacts on human well-being, but the impacts differ from different groups. The construction of water conservancy facilities has highly significant impacts on human well-being in all groups; the education level has no significant impact on the group with high disaster risk and high human well-being, which has not passed the significance test; while the financial inputs in agriculture and meteorology have relatively higher impacts on the whole basin and on the group with low disaster risk and low human well-being compared with other groups. Therefore, it is suggested that the negative impacts of drought and flood disasters can be mitigated through strengthening infrastructure construction, responding appropriately to climate change, avoiding disasters at the source of major projects and improving the disaster prevention and mitigation systems.
Climate change may contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters. Long-term studies of either homogeneous or heterogeneous responses of historical disasters to climate change are, however, limited by the quality and quantity of the available proxy data. Here we reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of five types of disasters in China during the period AD 1368-1911. Our analyses of these time series reveal that warmer temperatures decreased the occurrence of disasters in the monsoon-affected parts of central-east China, but it increased the frequency and intensity of disasters along the boundary of arid and humid conditions in parts of southwest and northeast China, probably driven by the interplay among monsoon, westerlies, polar vortex and variation of temperature. Moreover, we show that drought and flood events had cascading effects on the occurrences of locust outbreaks, famine and human epidemics. Our findings suggest that climate can contribute to the spatio-temporal occurrence of disasters, and therefore may contribute to an improvement of China’s regional to national risk management of future climate and environmental change.
Objective: This study aimed to 1) investigate the psychometric properties of the Climate Change Anxiety Scale or CCAS (Clayton & Karazsia, 2020) and 2) examine the mediating role of climate change anxiety on the link between experience of climate change and behavioural engagement in climate mitigation in Filipino youth. Method: A total of 452 Filipino adolescents responded to the survey (Mean Age = 19.18, SD = .99). Results: A modified two-factor model of the CCAS displayed superior fit relative to the other three models tested. Confirmatory factor analysis in Phase 1 yielded a stable two-factor structure with strong factor loadings and good internal consistency. In Phase 2, cognitive-emotional, but not the functional impairment component of climate anxiety, showed a mediating effect on the relationship between experience of climate change and behavioural engagement in climate mitigation. Conclusions: This study is the first to demonstrate that CCAS subscales have distinct mediating roles in linking Filipino adolescents’ experience of climate change and mitigation behaviours. Further validation of the CCAS is recommended, as well as further research on the factors that can promote environment-friendly behaviours in Filipino youth.
Vanuatu, a Pacific Small Island Developing State, has high exposure to climate extremes, such as tropical cyclones and interannual rainfall variability, which can have devastating short- and long-term impacts on food and nutrition security (FNS). This paper presents local experiences of the effects of climate extremes on FNS in Vanuatu through a case study of two recent events: Tropical Cyclone Pam (2015) and an El Nino-induced drought (2015-2017). A qualitative research approach, using a range of data collection methods, was used to document people’s lived experiences in two villages in Vanuatu. This study found that climate extremes affected the FNS of people in the two study villages directly, with effects on gardens and food production, and indirectly, by exacerbating the nutrition transition, a shift away from traditional diets energy-dense imported food that is already progressing in Vanuatu. These effects undermine long-term FNS and health. Climate extremes also eroded food-related cultural practices and traditions and constrained local agency to make food choices. The magnitude and extent of these impacts, however, are influenced by structural vulnerabilities and local resiliencies. The adaptive capacity and resilience of communities needs to be strengthened in a way that allows people to exercise agency in their responses to climate extremes and to promote FNS, including cultural acceptability and food preferences, and long-term health.
Drought is a global threat to public health. Increasingly, the impact of drought on mental health and wellbeing is being recognized. This paper investigates the relationship between drought and well-being to determine which drought indices most effectively capture well-being outcomes. A thorough understanding of the relationship between drought and well-being must consider the (i) three aspects of drought (duration, frequency, and magnitude); (ii) different types of drought (meteorological, agricultural, etc.); and (iii) the individual context of specific locations, communities, and sectors. For this reason, we used a variety of drought types, drought indices, and time windows to identify the thresholds for wet and dry epochs that enhance and suppress impacts to well-being. Four postcodes in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, are used as case studies in the analysis to highlight the spatial variability in the relationship between drought and well-being. The results demonstrate that the relationship between drought indices and well-being outcomes differs temporally, spatially, and according to drought type. This paper objectively tests the relationship between commonly used drought indices and wellbeing outcomes to establish whether current methods of quantifying drought effectively capture well-being outcomes. For funding, community programs, and interventions to result in successful adaptation, it is essential to critically choose which drought index, time window, and well-being outcome to use in empirical studies. The uncertainties associated with these relationships must be accounted for, and it must also be realized that results will differ on the basis of these decisions.
El sistema de monitorización de sequías meteorológicas está diseñado para el seguimiento, alerta temprana y evaluación de la sequía meteorológica, para lo que utiliza en tiempo real la información climática y satelital disponible que muestra el desarrollo de las condiciones de sequía meteorológica y la posible evolución de la misma. El sistema incorpora el desarrollo de productos tecnológicos operativos con implicaciones directas para la gestión de los recursos hídricos, las áreas naturales y para la gestión del riesgo de sequía meteorológica en sectores económicos afectados.
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Climate change is expected to have severe consequences for the world, some of which are already being felt. According to projections, in some regions, droughts will be more frequent and intense in the 21st century. This calls for purposeful interventions by governments to mitigate the impacts. Drought-affected communities are more vulnerable to famine. The effects of drought are felt in people’s education levels, nutrition, health, sanitation, and women and the safety of children in these communities. The impact of drought can be seen in the livelihoods of people affected by it. Against this backdrop, there is the need to document the effects of drought on women and children’s health in the affected communities. Such a study calls for a systematic approach. This study explores the various dimensions of the effects of droughts. It accessed electronic databases, including Google Scholar, Scopus, Pub-Med, JSTOR to identify a substantial number of studies using key words and expressions. To begin with, the word drought was kept constant in all combinations of keywords and phrases. The search was then refined by using the word drought with keywords, such as livelihood, vulnerability, sustainable development, adaption and mitigation, migration, health impact, and risk management to search the required articles. Only studies conducted in the period 2000 – 2019 were considered for this review. The review’s findings show that due to a lack of water during a drought, the burden of work on women and children increased considerably. Most faced severe health issues like malnutrition and anemia. The livelihoods of women were also affected because of which they were forced to adopt various strategies to overcome the problems posed by droughts. Droughts occur every year in different parts of India. Actions are required to mitigate the effects of drought, including the provision of drinking water, food, aid and relief aid to distressed farmers, employment support, support for changes in livelihoods, water security, and drought-proofing. State policies and actions must give particular attention to women and children because they are the most vulnerable. Employment-generation actions should also include youth by providing appropriate training for developing appropriate skills.
The Imperial Valley region of Southeastern California has become one of the most productive agricultural regions in the state and has the highest rates of childhood asthma in California. Lack of precipitation in the Imperial Valley has caused the water level of the Salton Sea to recede to a record low since its formation in the early 1900s. Previous studies of wind and dust deposition conducted in other regions have shown how reduced precipitation, ground heating, and the diminishing water level in an arid climate pose a risk of exposing previously sequestered toxic chemicals to open air, adversely affecting lung health. The purpose of this study is to draw historical parallels between the Aral Sea and Salton Sea in the context of geomorphology, ecology, human health, economics, and human migration, to inform an assessment of environmentally related health impacts of those living in the Imperial Valley region. Future droughts and heatwaves are expected to rise in frequency and severity, disproportionately affecting those impacted by financial and health disparities. Future research must include the implications of population health in the context of GeoHealth as a result of the most recent drought and the receding water levels of the Salton Sea.
Over the last century, droughts have caused more deaths internationally than any other weather- or climate-related disaster. Like other natural disasters, droughts cause significant changes in the environment that can lead to negative health outcomes. As droughts are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change, public health systems need to address impacts associated with these events. Partnering with federal and local entities, we evaluated the state of knowledge of drought and health in the United States through a National Drought and Public Health Summit and a series of subsequent regional workshops. The intended outcome was to develop public health strategies for implementing activities to better support and prepare public health systems for future droughts. The information gathered from this work identified multiple policy and law options to address the public health issues associated with drought. These policy recommendations include the use of public health emergency declarations for drought events, increased usage of preparedness evaluations for drought emergencies, and engagement of drought and climate experts in state and local risk assessments. As drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change, taking policy action now will help decrease the health impacts of drought and save lives.
BACKGROUND: Both the World Health Organization and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change project that malnutrition will be the greatest contributor to climate change-associated morbidity and mortality. Although there have been several studies that have examined the potential effects of climate change on human health broadly, the effects on malnutrition are still not well understood. We conducted a systematic review investigating the role of three climate change proxies (droughts, floods, and climate variability) on malnutrition in children and adults. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We identified 22 studies examining the effects of droughts, floods, and climate variability on at least one malnutrition metric. We found that 17 out of 22 studies reported a significant relationship between climate change proxies and at least one malnutrition metric. In meta-analysis, drought conditions were significantly associated with both wasting (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.46, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] 1.05-2.04) and underweight prevalence (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.11). CONCLUSIONS: Given the long-term consequences of malnutrition on individuals and society, adoption of climate change adaptation strategies such as sustainable agriculture and water irrigation practices, as well as improving nutritional interventions aimed at children aged 1-2 years and older adults, should be prioritised on global policy agendas in the coming years.
Drought is a devastating natural hazard that significantly affects human health and social and economic activities. This study aims to explore the short-term association between drought and outpatient visits for respiratory diseases (RDs) in four northwest cities, China. In this study, we obtained daily outpatient visits for RDs, meteorological factors, and air pollutant data in four cities (Lanzhou from 2014 to 2016, Wuwei from 2016 to 2018, Tianshui and Zhangye from 2015 to 2018) of northwest China. We used the daily Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought and estimated the effects of drought on outpatient visits with RDs by using a generalized additive model (GAM) in each city, controlling for daily temperature, time trends, and other confounding factors. The city-specific estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. There were 1,134,577 RDs cases in the hospitals across the four cities. We found that a 1-unit decrease in daily exposure to SPI-1 was positively associated with daily outpatient visits for RDs, with estimated RR of 1.0230 (95% CIs: 1.0096, 1.0366). Compared to non-drought periods, the RR of daily outpatient visits for RDs for exposure to all drought conditions was 1.0431 (95% CIs: 1.0309, 1.0555). In subgroup analysis, the estimated effects of drought on outpatient visits for RDs appeared larger for males than females though not statistically different, and the estimated effects in children and adolescents were the greatest among different age groups. Drought likely increases the risk of respiratory diseases, particularly among children and adolescents. We highlight that public health adaptations to drought such as drought monitoring, mitigation measures, and adaptation strategies are necessary.
Concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events can significantly impact local ecosystems, socio-economies, and human health. The respective characteristics of droughts and cold extremes have been extensively studied, however, their concurrent extremes have received very little attention. In this study, we used the Huai River Basin as a case to build a magnitude index of concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events (CDCMI) based on daily minimum temperature data and a 1-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) from 1961 to 2018. Results show that the magnitude of meteorological droughts increased over the observation period, while consecutive cold events significantly decreased. CDCMI showed a significant downward trend at a rate of -0.14 per decade. Large differences were observed between 1990-2018 and 1961-1989-especially in the southern parts of the basin (around -50%). The frequency of mild and moderate concurrent meteorological droughts and consecutive cold events showed no significant upward or downward trends, but severe and extreme concurrent events showed pronounced decreasing trends at rates of -0.03 events/decade and – 0.036 events/decade, respectively. Under the same return period, high CDCMI values are present in the southeastern part of the basin, indicating that the concurrent events in this region are more serious. When CDCMI = 1.79 (extreme grade), the return period in the southeastern part of the basin (5-10 years) is much lower than that in the northwestern part of the basin (>100 years), indicating that this part is harmed to a greater extent by the concurrent extremes than elsewhere in the basin. The spatial pattern of maximum CDCMI again indicates that the southeastern part of the basin is at a high risk for concurrent events. The proposed magnitude index may be a useful tool for analysing concurrent (compound) droughts and cold events as well as their potential impacts.
The California state government put restrictions on outdoor residential water use, including landscape irrigation, during the 2012-2016 drought. The public health implications of these actions are largely unknown, particularly with respect to mosquito-borne disease transmission. While residential irrigation facilitates persistence of mosquitoes by increasing the availability of standing water, few studies have investigated its effects on vector abundance. In two study sub-regions in the Los Angeles Basin, we examined the effect of outdoor residential water use restrictions on the abundance of the most important regional West Nile virus vector, Culex quinquefasciatus. Using spatiotemporal random forest models fit to Cx. abundance during drought and non-drought years, we generated counterfactual estimates of Cx. abundance under a hypothetical drought scenario without water use restrictions. We estimate that Cx. abundance would have been 44% and 39% larger in West Los Angeles and Orange counties, respectively, if outdoor water usage had remained unchanged. Our results suggest that drought, without mandatory water use restrictions, may counterintuitively increase the availability of larval habitats for vectors in naturally dry, highly irrigated settings and such mandatory water use restrictions may constrain Cx. abundance, which could reduce the risk of mosquito-borne disease while helping urban utilities maintain adequate water supplies.
Disaster planning for slow-onset city-wide shocks will be become increasingly necessary, particularly as cities face increasingly severe climate hazards. This paper provides unique insight into the disaster planning and management that was undertaken by the City of Cape Town government in response to its most severe hydrological drought on record. It describes how risk was understood and why decisions were made on key elements of the plan, including trigger points, risk prioritisation and mitigation, and the location and design of points of distribution of water rations for the public. Reflecting upon the authors’ experience and interviews with senior City officials who worked on the drought disaster planning and response, the paper extracts five key lessons learnt that have since been applied during the COVID-19 pandemic: (i) the need for cross-functional planning and response skills, (ii) the need for integrated, up-to-date and scale-appropriate data; (iii) the importance of scenario-based simulations, communication and rapid costing to enable the rapid scaling-up of a response; (iv) the value of being able to use outsourced expert capacity effectively; and (v) the application of previously used disaster management and planning experience to build resilience in cities. These lessons, captured in a visual framework, help reflect on capabilities required for responding to future city-scale disasters. The paper provides an informative case study for other cities and risk managers, and will be particularly useful for global South contexts that face drought and other slow-onset disasters, most recently illustrated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many deltas worldwide have increasingly faced extreme drought and salinity intrusion, which have adversely affected millions of coastal inhabitants in terms of lives and property. The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is considered one of the world?s most vulnerable regions to drought and saline water intrusion, especially in the context of climate change. This study aims to assess livelihood vulnerability and adaptation of the coastal people of the VMD under the impacts of drought and saltwater intrusion. A multi-disciplinary approach was applied, including desktop literature reviews, field surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions with 120 farmers and 30 local officials in two representative hamlets of Soc Trang, a coastal province of the VMD. A vulnerability assessment tool in combination with a sustainable livelihood framework was used to evaluate livelihood vulnerability using the five capital resources to indicate the largest effects of drought and salinity intrusion on the migration of local young people to large cities for adaptation. Livelihood Vulnerability Indexes revealed higher vulnerability in terms of the five capitals of coastal communities living in Nam Chanh hamlet compared to Soc Leo. Results of interviews with officials indicated an optimized mechanism between social organizations and local communities before, at the time, and after being impacted by the drought and salinity intrusion. Our findings contribute evidence-based knowledge to decision-makers to enable coastal communities in the VMD and other deltas worldwide to effectively adapt to the impacts of drought and salinity intrusion.
Natural hazards like floods and droughts affect many aspects of life. The study in particular examined the impacts of droughts on under-five mortality rate in Southern Africa, adjusting for gross domestic product (GDP) and literacy rate. Despite drought and child mortality being key public health concerns in Southern Africa over the past few decades, there have hardly been any studies examining the relationships between them. The study used publicly available data from 1980 to 2012. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-monthly time scales for ten southern African countries. The wetter and drier states are represented by positive and negative SPI values, respectively. SPI, GDP, and literacy rate were considered for predicting child mortality rate using both Multiple Linear Regression techniques and nonlinear methods (Generalized Additive Model), on a leave-one-year-out cross validation approach for model evaluation. Child mortality increased as the drought worsened for five countries in this region, namely Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zambia. We found that child mortality can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy using three predictor variables-drought index, GDP and literacy rate. Statistical modelling based on early warning system can complement regional capacities for drought response systems to increase child survival rate in drought-prone areas
Global warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
This publication presents a comparison of the content of pollutants in groundwater samples taken at 117 measurement points in four regions of Poland during a drought period and in the reference period without drought. Based on the chemical analyses of water, an assessment of the health risk resulting from the use of underground water for consumption was carried out. The study aimed to determine whether drought affects the increase in health risk exposure of the population. It was found that despite the occurrence of drought, the expected increase in the concentration of pollutants in water does not take place in all locations. This study found that in some cases the occurrence of drought did not cause an increase in the non-cancerogenic threat expressed by the hazard index. There were also no clear changes in excess lifetime cancer risk values except for selected measurement points. On the other hand, the statistical analysis of all data collected in the regions where the research was conducted showed a general trend of increasing environmental health risk caused by changes in groundwater pollution during drought.
This study focuses on Guizhou Province, a region with difficult geographical conditions and poor economic development, to examine the effect of rainfall shocks on contemporaneous infant health and long-run socioeconomic outcomes in China. The study results indicate that negative rainfall shocks are robustly correlated with higher infant mortality and lower birth weight. In the long run, early life rainfall shortages limit an individual’s income and housing conditions. The study findings indicate a significant interaction of rainfall shock with the severity of water scarcity. This result implies that drinking water safety is an essential channel through which early life rainfall shocks influence individual health endowments. However, agriculture production is not a likely channel for rainfall effects despite its association with infant mortality. Accordingly, our empirical results suggest that improving public facility coverage will reduce the vulnerability of infant health to adverse rainfall shocks in Guizhou and other developing areas.
Environmental change and climate-related disasters are an under-examined factor impacting women’s health, globally. Drawing on ecofeminist theory, we conduct analyses examining if the HIV burden among women is higher in nations that experience suffering from droughts. Specifically, we posit that droughts, which typically impact more people and for greater lengths of time than other climate-related disasters, have a unique impact on women’s vulnerability to HIV/AIDS. We use a cross-national dataset of less-developed countries and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression to explore and compare relationships between suffering from drought and total HIV prevalence and suffering from drought and women’s proportion of HIV cases. Overall, the results demonstrate that while droughts have an inconsistent impact on total HIV prevalence, suffering from drought significantly increases the proportion of HIV cases among women in comparison to men, net of the impact of common economic, social, cultural, and political predictors. The findings suggest that suffering from drought differentially impacts women’s health in less-developed countries, where a number of mechanisms, such as transactional sex or displacement, likely underlie the associations identified.
Portugal (Southwestern Europe) experiences a high incidence of dry hazards such as drought, a phenomenon that entails a notable burden of morbidity and mortality worldwide. For the first time in the Lisbon district, a time-series study was conducted to evaluate the impact of drought measured by the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on the daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality from 1983 to 2016. An assessment by gender and adult age population groups (45-64, 65-74, ?75 years old) was included. To estimate the relative risks and attributable risks, generalised linear models with a Poisson link were used. Additionally, the influence of heatwaves and atmospheric pollution for the period from 2007 to 2016 (available period for pollution data) was considered. The main findings indicate statistically significant associations between drought conditions and all analysed causes of mortality. Moreover, SPEI shows an improved capability to reflect the different risks. People in the 45-64 year-old group did not indicate any significant influence in any of the cases, whereas the oldest groups had the highest risk. The drought effects on mortality among the population varied across the different study periods, and in general, the men population was affected more than the women population (except for the SPEI and circulatory mortality during the long study period). The short-term influence of droughts on mortality could be explained primarily by the effect of heatwaves and pollution; however, when both gender and age were considered in the Poisson models, the effect of drought also remained statistically significant when all climatic phenomena were included for specific groups of the total population and men. This type of study facilitates a better understanding of the population at risk and allows the development of more effective measures to mitigate the drought effects on the population.
India has reported a high prevalence of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) against women over the years. Previous Western research has found an increased IPV risk among women in the aftermath of natural disasters, underscoring the need for such studies in India. We could not locate any study focusing on the impact of slow-onset versus rapid-onset disasters, which might have differing impacts on the vulnerable, especially on the incidence of IPV in India. Using data on ever-married women from the National Family Health Survey-4 (2015-16), we investigated the association of residing in districts exposed to a drought (N = 31,045), and separately, to two cyclones (N = 8469), with three forms of self-reported IPV against women (emotional, physical, and sexual). Survey-adjusted logistic regression models showed that exposure to cyclone was positively associated with emotional IPV (AOR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.10) after adjusting for sociodemographic covariates. Although not statistically significant, exposure to cyclone was also positively associated with physical and sexual IPV, and drought with physical IPV. However, we did not find an association of drought with emotional and sexual violence. We corroborated previous findings that women from wealthier households, with greater education, and whose husbands had no history of alcohol consumption, were less likely to experience any form of IPV independent of the influence of other factors. These results highlight the potential increased risk of IPV following natural disasters. In patriarchal societies such as India vulnerable to climate-change, these sobering results highlight the need to prepare for the social disasters that might accompany natural disasters.
HIV/AIDS represents the leading cause of death among women of reproductive age globally, and gender inequalities in the burden of HIV/AIDS are most pronounced in poorer countries. Drawing on ideas from feminist political ecology, we explore linkages between suffering from drought, food insecurity, and women’s vulnerability to HIV. Using data from 91 less-developed countries, we construct a structural equation model to analyze the direct and indirect influence of these factors, alongside other socio-economic indicators, on the percentage of the adult population living with HIV that are women. We find that droughts are significant in shaping gender inequalities in the HIV burden indirectly through increased food insecurity. We draw on prior research to argue that due to gendered inequalities, food insecurity increases women’s vulnerability to HIV by intensifying biological susceptibilities to the disease, reducing access to social and health resources, and motivating women to engage in risky sexual behaviors, such as transactional sex. Overall, our findings demonstrate that droughts serve as an important underlying factor in promoting HIV transmission among vulnerable women in poor countries, and that food insecurity is a key mechanism in driving this relationship.
Constant environmental degradation and increased frequency and severity of natural disasters have been evident over the past few decades worldwide. As such, scientific tools to predict and assess risks keep being developed. Assessing disaster risk is an important task in supporting the transition to a sustainable society. However, as disasters and systems become more complex, disaster models combining diverse aspects including climatic, social, economic, and environmental factors are necessary. For this study, we set a model using the concept of risk by identifying hazards, exposure, and vulnerability. Here, the vulnerability was classified into two domains, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and two spheres, natural/built environment and human environment. Also, we stressed that controllable geo-spatial indicators should be included in risk assessments to effectively reduce risk and implement adequate spatio-temporal actions. The approach of this study was applied to Kazakhstan and South Korea as a pilot study to develop Agricultural Drought Risk Index (ADRI) and maps. As a result, the agricultural drought risk could be analyzed for South Korea and Kazakhstan. In addition, we performed additional spatial analyses at a reasonable scale for practical use. It was concluded that prioritizing risk areas at administrative and site level could contribute in decision and policy-making for risk reduction. Furthermore, spatial data availability and quality were found to be significant in assessing disaster risk.
In the Northeast Brazil (NEB), the impacts of climate extreme events such as severe droughts are aggravated by poverty and poor socioeconomic conditions. In this region, such events usually result in the spread of endemic diseases, problems in water distribution, and agricultural losses, often leading to an increase in the population’s vulnerability. Thus, this study aims to evaluate the microregions of the Rio Grande do Norte (RN) state, in the NEB, according to the Epidemiological Index for Drought Vulnerability (EIDV). We mapped and classified the microregions according to three dimensions of vulnerability: risk, susceptibility, and adaptive capacity. We also verified potential associations between drought risk and epidemiological vulnerability. The EIDV was calculated by considering the three dimensions of vulnerability as mutually exclusive events and applying the third axiom of probability. Then we carried out a cluster analysis in order to classify the microregions according to similarities in the EIDV. Odds ratio were also calculated in order to evaluate the odds of microregions having a high susceptibility to diseases and high vulnerability given the drought risk. Results showed that the Pau dos Ferros, Seridó Ocidental, Seridó Oriental, and Umarizal microregions were the most vulnerable, while Natal and Litoral Sul were the least vulnerable. Regarding the dimensions of vulnerability, we observed that almost the entire RN state exhibited high drought risk. Pau dos Ferros and Umarizal had the highest susceptibility and Litoral Nordeste presented the worst adaptive capacity to the effects of drought on health. The EIDV revealed that the population of the RN state needs improvements in living conditions and health, since socioeconomic status is one of the factors that most influence the vulnerability of microregions, which in turn is aggravated by drought risk.
Health determinants might play an important role in shaping the impacts related to long-term disasters such as droughts. Understanding their distribution in populated dry regions may help to map vulnerabilities and set coping strategies for current and future threats to human health. The aim of the study was to identify the most vulnerable municipalities of the Brazilian semiarid region when it comes to the relationship between drought, health, and their determinants using a multidimensional index. From a place-based framework, epidemiological, socio-economic, rural, and health infrastructure data were obtained for 1135 municipalities in the Brazilian semiarid region. An exploratory factor analysis was used to reduce 32 variables to four independent factors and compute a Health Vulnerability Index. The health vulnerability was modulated by social determinants, rural characteristics, and access to water in this semiarid region. There was a clear distinction between municipalities with the highest human welfare and economic development and those municipalities with the worst living conditions and health status. Spatial patterns showed a cluster of the most vulnerable municipalities in the western, eastern, and northeastern portions of the semiarid region. The spatial visualization of the associated vulnerabilities supports decision making on health promotion policies that should focus on reducing social inequality. In addition, policymakers are presented with a simple tool to identify populations or areas with the worst socioeconomic and health conditions, which can facilitate the targeting of actions and resources on a more equitable basis. Further, the results contribute to the understanding of social determinants that may be related to medium- and long-term health outcomes in the region.
Exposure to drought is on the increase, also in sub-Saharan Africa. Even so, little attention has been paid to what supports youth resilience to the stressors associated with drought. In response, this article reports a secondary analysis of qualitative data generated in a phenomenological study with 25 South African adolescents (average age 15.6; majority Sepedi-speaking) from a drought-impacted and structurally disadvantaged community. The thematic findings show the importance of personal, relational, and structural resources that fit with youths’ sociocultural context. Essentially, proactive collaboration between adolescents and their social ecologies is necessary to co-advance socially just responses to the challenges associated with drought.
The indigenous knowledge of our ancestors provides valuable information on how to prevent negative health impacts on water hygiene in the event of drought. The present study aimed to explore the role of indigenous knowledge in maintaining water safety in drought conditions. A qualitative content analysis method using in-depth semi-structured interviews was used to collect and analyze the data. The current research was carried out from April 2017 to June 2018. A purposive sampling method was used to select 15 participants. Trustworthiness was applied with the Lincoln and Guba approach and data were analyzed using Graneheim and Lundman’s method. Two categories including drinking water storage and water collection were extracted from the data. Each category includes different strategies to deal with water. Water storage includes water quantity and water quality. Water collection consists of collection methods and rules. Indigenous knowledge is an indispensable component of community disaster resilience. It can be transferred to other communities and employed to empower affected communities. But using the knowledge without scientific considerations cannot guarantee peoples’ health throughout the drought periods.
The aim of the paper is to describe the spread forest fire event occurred in the Italian Alps in 2017 under extremely drought conditions. In the study the root causes of wildfires and their direct relapses to the air quality of the Western Po valley and the urban centre of Torino have been assessed by means of air pollution measurements (focused to particulate matter with reference samplers and optical particle counters OPCs), meteorological indicators and additional public data. Results show a good correlation among different urban sites and instrument technologies. Concentration data, compared with environmental conditions and historical values describe the clear impact of fires on both local and regional air quality. Indeed, the deferred impact of wildfires on the local wood biomass energy supply chain is briefly outlined. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
The global literature on drought and health highlights a variety of health effects for people in developing countries where certain prevailing social, economic and environmental conditions increase their vulnerability especially with climate change. Despite increased focus on climate change, relatively less is known about the health-drought impacts in the developed country context. In the UK, where climate change-related risk of water shortages has been identified as a key area for action, there is need for better understanding of drought-health linkages. This paper assesses people’s narratives of drought on health and well-being in the UK using a source-receptor-impact framing. Stakeholder narratives indicate that drought can present perceived health and well-being effects through reduced water quantity, water quality, compromised hygiene and sanitation, food security, and air quality. Heatwave associated with drought was also identified as a source of health effects through heat and wildfire, and drought-related vectors. Drought was viewed as potentially attributing both negative and positive effects for physical and mental health, with emphasis on mental health. Health impacts were often complex and cross-sectoral in nature indicating the need for a management approach across several sectors that targets drought and health in risk assessment and adaptation planning processes. Two recurring themes in the UK narratives were the health consequences of drought for ‘at-risk’ groups and the need to target them, and that drought in a changing climate presented potential health implications for at-risk groups.
Drought is a major challenge threatening agricultural productivity in uMsinga. The occurrence of drought is expected to increase in coming decades, intensifying in severity, duration and the way people are affected by drought. The objective of this study is to understand small-scale farmers’ and rural communities’ perceptions of drought, its environmental and socio-economic impacts, adaptive and mitigation measures at household level and their satisfaction with the government’s role in drought management in the community. The study utilized a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods, in the form of questionnaires, focus groups and key informant interviews. The sample size for the research study was 180 respondents for the questionnaire component and a total of 30 respondents for the focus groups and key informant interviews. The results show that increased levels of poverty, food insecurity and increased migration were the main socio-economic impacts perceived by respondents. Water scarcity, crop failure, forest degradation and an increase in average temperatures were perceived by respondents as the main environmental impacts caused by drought in uMsinga. Respondents perceived drought as a serious threat to agricultural production and adopted various indigenous adaptive strategies. A majority of respondents adopted a reactive approach to drought management, and therefore did not adopt many mitigation measures.
During the 2012-2016 drought in La Guajira, Colombia, child mortality rates rose to 23.4 out of 1000. Most of these children belonged to the Wayuu indigenous community, the largest and one of the most vulnerable in Colombia. At the municipal level, this study found a significant positive correlation between the average child mortality rate and households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, the number of people without access to health insurance, being part of the indigenous population, being illiterate, lacking sewage systems, living in rural areas, and large households with members younger than 5 years old and older than 65 years old. No correlation was found with households without access to a water source. The stepwise regression analysis showed that households with a monthly income of less than USD 100, no members older than 65 years old, but several children younger than 5 years old, account for 90.4% of the child mortality rate. This study concludes that, if inhabitants had had better incomes or assets, as well as an adequate infrastructure, they could have faced the drought without the observed increase in child mortality.
OBJECTIVES: Indian agriculture is mostly dependent on monsoon. Poor and irregular rainfall may result in crop failure and food shortage among the vulnerable population. This study examined the variations in drought condition and its association with under age 5 child malnutrition across the districts of India. METHODS: Using remote sensing and National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) data, univariate Moran’s I and bivariate local indicator of spatial autocorrelation (LISA) maps were generated to assess the spatial autocorrelation and clustering. To empirically check the association, we applied multivariate ordinary least square and spatial autoregressive models. RESULTS: The study identified highly significant spatial dependence of drought followed by underweight, stunting, and wasting. Bivariate LISA maps showed negative spatial autocorrelation between drought and child malnutrition. Regression results suggest agricultural drought is substantially associated with stunting. An increasing value of drought showed statistical association with the decreasing (??=?-?8.251; p value?
Spain is a country of southern Europe that is prone to drought, and it is likely that this type of hydrological extreme will become substantially more frequent and intense in the 21st century, which could lead to greater health risks if adequate adaptive measures are not taken. For the first time, we calculated the relative risks (RRs) of daily natural (ICD10: A00-R99), circulatory (ICD10: I00-I99), and respiratory (ICD: J00-J99) mortality associated with drought events in each province of Spain from 2000 to 2009. For this purpose, we compared the performance of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) obtained at 1 month of accumulation (denoted as SPI-1/SPEI-1) to estimate the short-term risks of droughts on daily mortality using generalised linear models. Attributable risks were calculated from the RR data. The main findings of this study revealed statistically significant associations between the different causes of daily mortality and drought events for the different provinces of Spain, and clear spatial heterogeneity was observed across the country. Western Spain (northwest to southwest) was the region most affected, in contrast to northern and eastern Spain, and daily respiratory mortality was the group most strongly linked to the incidence of drought conditions. Moreover, for a considerable number of provinces, the effect of SPI-1 and SPEI-1 largely reflected the impact of atmospheric pollution and/or heatwaves; however, for other regions, the effect of drought conditions on daily mortality remained when these different climatic events were controlled in Poisson models. When the performances of the SPEI and SPI were compared to identify and estimate the risks of drought on daily mortality, the results were very similar, although there were slight differences in the specific causes of daily mortality.
This study was conducted to evaluate seasonal patterns of household food insecurity, dietary diversity, and household characteristics on wasting and stunting among children in households followed for 1 year in the drought-prone areas of Sidama, Ethiopia. A cohort study design was employed. Data were collected on the pre-harvest season (March and June) and post-harvest season (September and December) of 2017. We studied 935 children aged 6 to 47 months. At four seasons over a year, we had 3,449 observations from 897 households and 82% (2,816) (95% CI: 80.3-82.9) were food in-secured households. Severe food insecurity was higher in the pre-harvest (March; food scarcity season) which was 69% as compared to 50% of September (P < .001). From 3,488 observations, 44% (1,533) (95% CI: 42.3-45.6) of children were stunted. Stunting showed seasonal variations with 38% (95% CI: 34.7-41.0) in March and 49% (95% CI: 45.8-52.5) in December. Six percent (95% CI: 5.0-6.6) of children were wasted, with higher prevalence in March (8%) as compared to 3% of September (P < .001). Moreover, household characteristics such as poverty level, education, occupation and the household food insecurity and dietary diversity were associated with subsequent wasting and stunting.
A performance assessment of two different indices (the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for monitoring short-term and short-medium-term drought impacts on daily specific-cause mortality in Spain was conducted. To achieve a comprehensive, nationwide view, a meta-analysis was performed using a combination of provincial relative risks (RRs). Moreover, the subdivisions of Spain based on administrative, climatic, and demographic criteria to obtain the measures of combined risks were also taken into account. The results of the SPEI and SPI calculated at the same timescale were similar. Both showed that longer drought events produced greater RR values, for respiratory mortality. However, at the local administrative level, Galicia, Castilla-y-Leon, and Extremadura showed the greatest risk of daily mortality associated with drought episodes, with Andalucía, País Vasco, and other communities being notably impacted. Based on climatic regionalization, Northwest, Central, and Southern Spain were the regions most affected by different drought conditions for all analyzed causes of daily mortality, while the Mediterranean coastal region was less affected. Demographically, the regions with the highest proportion of people aged 65 years of age and over reflected the greatest risk of daily natural, circulatory, and respiratory mortality associated with drought episodes.
The number of serious and extreme drought events is increasing, causing a serious threat to ecosystems, food security, livelihood security, social stability, and sustainable development. The Marathwada region of India is highly vulnerable to the impacts of drought and has been severely affected because of consecutive drought events from 2012 to 2016. This article aims to understand the rural farming household’s perceptions of the impacts of drought, their adaptation and mitigation measures, and also attempts to assess the level of satisfaction of rural households with government mitigation measures. This study is based on primary and secondary sources of data collected from 192 farming households following a structured questionnaire survey. The survey reveals that crop failure, livelihood insecurity, declines in livestock production, livestock loss, water conflicts, and problems in meeting agricultural expenses, increased school dropout rates of children, and both psychological and health problems, were the most immediate socio-economic impacts of drought. The various environmental impacts of drought perceived by farmers included depleted groundwater levels, poor groundwater quality, land degradation, a decrease in seasonal river flows, degradation of pastures and declines in soil fertility. It was found that small and medium sized farmers were highly affected by drought compared with marginal and large scale farmers because of their high dependency on agriculture and poor adaptation strategies.
Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia, situated in the Horn of Africa, are highly vulnerable to climate change, which manifests itself through increasing temperatures, erratic rains and prolonged droughts. Millions of people have to flee from droughts or floods either as cross-border refugees or as internally displaced persons (IDPs). The aim of this study was to identify knowledge status and gaps regarding public health consequences of large-scale displacement in these countries. After a scoping review, we conducted qualitative in-depth interviews during 2018 with 39 stakeholders from different disciplines and agencies in these three countries. A validation workshop was held with a selection of 13 interviewees and four project partners. Malnutrition and a lack of vaccination of displaced people are well-known challenges, while mental health problems and gender-based violence (GBV) are less visible to stakeholders. In particular, the needs of IDPs are not well understood. The treatment of mental health and GBV is insufficient, and IDPs have inadequate access to essential health services in refugee camps. Needs assessment and program evaluations with a patients’ perspective are either lacking or inadequate in most situations. The Horn of Africa is facing chronic food insecurity, poor population health and mass displacement. IDPs are an underserved group, and mental health services are lacking. A development approach is necessary that moves beyond emergency responses to the building of long-term resilience, the provision of livelihood support and protection to reduce displacement by droughts.
BACKGROUND: Over the past four decades, drought episodes in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) of the of the World Health Organization (WHO) have gradually become more widespread, prolonged and frequent. We aimed to map hotspot countries and identified key strategic actions for health consequences. METHODS: We reviewed scientific literature and WHO EMR documentation on trends and patterns of the drought health consequences from 1990 through 2019. Extensive communication was also carried out with EMR WHO country offices to retrieve information on ongoing initiatives to face health consequences due to drought. An index score was developed to categorize countries according vulnerability factors towards drought. RESULTS: A series of complex health consequences are due to drought in EMR, including malnutrition, vector-borne diseases, and water-borne diseases. The index score indicated how Afghanistan, Yemen and Somalia are “hotspots” due to poor population health status and access to basic sanitation as well as other elements such as food insecurity, displacement and conflicts/political instability. WHO country offices effort is towards enhancing access to water and sanitation and essential healthcare services including immunization and psychological support, strengthening disease surveillance and response, and risk communication. CONCLUSIONS: Drought-related health effects in the WHO EMR represent a public health emergency. Strengthening mitigation activities and additional tailored efforts are urgently needed to overcome context-specific gaps and weaknesses, with specific focus on financing, accountability and enhanced data availability.
When drought hits water-scarce regions, there are significant repercussions for food and water security, as well as serious issues for the stability of broader social and environmental systems. To mitigate these effects, environmental monitoring and early warning systems aimed at detecting the onset of drought conditions can facilitate timely and effective responses from government and private sector stakeholders. This study uses multistage, participatory research methods across more than 135 interviews, focus groups, and workshops to assess extant climatic, agricultural, hydrological, and drought monitoring systems; key cross-sector drought impacts; and drought monitoring needs in four countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Morocco, Tunisia, Lebanon, and Jordan. This extensive study of user needs for drought monitoring across the MENA region is informing and shaping the ongoing development of drought early warning systems, a composite drought indicator (CDI), and wider drought management systems in each country. Overarching themes of drought monitoring needs include technical definitions of drought for policy purposes; information-sharing regimes and data-sharing platforms; ground-truthing of remotely sensed and modeled data; improved data quality in observation networks; and two-way engagement with farmers, organizations, and end-users of drought monitoring products. This research establishes a basis for informing enhanced drought monitoring and management in the countries, and the broad stakeholder engagement can help foster the emergence of effective environmental monitoring coalitions.
