Sun protection has become crucial due to the effects of climate change that has resulted in effects such as extremely high temperatures. Early exposure of children to ultraviolet rays (UVR) makes them vulnerable to developing sun-related diseases later in life. Sun protection through clothing is the most affordable option to use for many people. The study assessed the awareness of sun protection for pre-school children among parents, and awareness of retailers about children’s clothing with sun-protective finishes. This exploratory and descriptive study was conducted to describe the prevailing awareness of sun-protective clothing using a questionnaire that was hand-delivered by children to their parents. A target convenience sample was selected with 20 children in each of four pre-schools from the four administrative regions of Eswatini. A research assistant interviewed managers of purposefully selected retail outlets on whether managers are aware of clothing for children with sun-protective finishes. Results showed that a majority of parents were not aware of the need to protect their children against sun exposure. Those parents who were aware mainly used clothing as a preventative measure against sun exposure. Parents, who viewed sun exposure as a health hazard, were likely to be aware of sun-protective clothing and accessories. Thus, these parents generally selected garments made from light-coloured cotton fabric. Only one retail outlet stocked merchandise with specialised tags for sun-protective clothing. In conclusion, most parents were not aware of the effects of sun exposure and the hazards associated with prolonged exposure to the sun. Only one retail outlet stocked merchandise with sun-protective finishes. The recommendation is to introduce educational programmes in schools and for consumers on protecting children against sun exposure.
Environmental factors such as solar ultraviolet radiation (UV), air pollution, and variations in the air temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) affect skin health. However, it is still unclear what effects on the skin may occur as the result of these combined exposures. This study was designed to quantify environmental exposures during routine daily activities to provide quantitative metrics that inspire future studies on exposome and human health. Two bicyclists were equipped with instruments to collect specific data concerning UV (at different angles), T, RH, ground-level ozone (O-3), and chemical exposures. Measurements were conducted in the summer and winter seasons of 2016-2017 in four touristic and urban Brazilian cities. Erythemal UV doses (EryD) exceeding the minimal erythemal doses (MED) for phototype V (EryD > 600 Jm(-2)) were registered inmost tours, including cloudy weather and during the winter. Significant EryD were also observed in tilted body parts. Humidex Index (HI) higher than 30 degrees C revealed great thermal discomfort in most regions, mainly during the summer. O-3 amounts were generally below the thresholds established by the World Health Organization (WHO), except for two instances in which the peak of O-3 concentrations exceeded the 100 mu gm(-3). More than 10% of chemicals sampled during the tours were identified as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH), including anthracene (peak of 207 ng per gram of air). There was a combination of EryD exceeding the MED, thermal discomfort, and PAH exposure in most studied areas. We concluded that this exposome could accelerate and amplify skin-related damages generally associated with a single environmental factor exposure, such as sunlight exposure at any time of the year, for example. (C) 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
El sistema de predicción de radiación ultravioleta de la AEMET pronostica valores del índice UV hasta 5 días utilizando los valores de ozono previstos por el modelo dinámico global del Centro Europeo de Predicción a Plazo Medio, para las capitales de provincia, ciudades autónomas e islas. Estos valores de ozono, junto con otras variables, constituyen la entrada al modelo de Transferencia Radiativa Radtran, que ejecutado diariamente en los ordenadores de la AEMET, proporciona los datos de irradiancia solar en las longitudes de onda del UV, necesarios para calcular el UVI previsto en condiciones de cielo despejado. En un futuro próximo se espera poder proporcionar UVI previsto en condiciones de cielo despejado y nuboso.
Sun protection is required when the UV index is 3 or higher. The forecast for the daily maximum UV index is valid for cloudless conditions. Only thick clouds attenuate the UV radiation considerably.
Dnevni maksimum in dnavni potek UV indeksa
BACKGROUND: Climate change is broadly affecting human health, with grave concern that continued warming of the earth’s atmosphere will result is serious harm. Since the mid-20th century, skin cancer incidence rates have risen at an alarming rate worldwide. OBJECTIVE: This review examines the relationship between climate change and cutaneous carcinogenesis. METHODS: A literature review used the National Institutes of Health databases (PubMed and Medline), the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results and International Agency for Research on Cancer registries, and published reports by federal and international agencies and consortia, including the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United Nations Environment Programme, World Health Organization, and World Meteorological Organization. RESULTS: Skin cancer risk is determined by multiple factors, with exposure to ultraviolet radiation being the most important. Strong circumstantial evidence supports the hypothesis that factors related to climate change, including stratospheric ozone depletion, global warming, and ambient air pollution, have likely contributed to the increasing incidence of cutaneous malignancy globally and will continue to impose a negative on influence skin cancer incidence for many decades to come. CONCLUSION: Because much of the data are based on animal studies and computer simulations, establishing a direct and definitive link remains challenging. More epidemiologic studies are needed to prove causality in skin cancer, but the evidence for overall harm to human health as a direct result of climate change is clear. Global action to mitigate these negative impacts to humans and the environment is imperative.
PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic inflammatory skin disorder affecting up to 20% of children and up to 5% of adults worldwide, contributing to significant disease-related morbidity in this patient cohort. Its aetiopathogenesis is underpinned by multiple factors, including genetic susceptibility, skin barrier defects, a skewed cutaneous immune response and microbiome perturbation in both the skin and the gut. In this review, we aim to examine the biological effects of key environmental exposures (the sum of which is termed the “exposome”) at the population, community and individual levels in order to describe their effect on AD pathogenesis. RECENT FINDINGS: It is now understood that as well as considering the type of environmental exposure with regard to its effect on AD pathogenesis, the dosage and timing of the exposure are both critical domains that may lead to either exacerbation or amelioration of disease. In this review, we consider the effects of population-wide exposures such as climate change, migration and urbanization; community-specific exposures such as air pollution, water hardness and allergic sensitisation; and individual factors such as diet, microbiome alteration, psychosocial stress and the impact of topical and systemic therapy. SUMMARY: This review summarises the interaction of the above environmental factors with the other domains of AD pathogenesis, namely, the inherent genetic defects, the skin barrier, the immune system and the cutaneous and gut microbiota. We specifically emphasise the timing and dosage of exposures and its effect on the cellular and molecular pathways implicated in AD.
Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common metabolic complication of pregnancy that is generally asymptomatic in its clinical course, although it is potentially associated with a wide range of both maternal and foetal complications. The population prevalence of GDM varies widely, depending on the clinical diagnostic criteria, ethnicity, demographics and background prevalence of type 2 diabetes. Climate variability and environmental temperature have recently come to the forefront as potential direct or indirect determinants of human health. The association between GDM and environmental temperature is complex, and studies have often reported conflicting findings. Epidemiologic studies have shown a direct relation between rising environmental temperature and the risk of both GDM and impaired beta cell function. Seasonal trends in the prevalence of GDM have been reported in several populations, with a higher prevalence in summer months. Multiple mechanisms have been proposed to explain the GDM-temperature correlation. A growing body of evidence supports a link between temperature, energy expenditure and adipose tissue metabolism. Brown adipose tissue thermogenesis, induced by cold temperatures, improves insulin sensitivity. Further biological explanations for the GDM-temperature correlation lie in potential association with low vitamin D levels, which varies according to sunshine exposure. Observational studies are also complicated by lifestyle factors, such as diet and physical activity, that could exhibit seasonal variation. In this review article, we provide a systematic overview of available epidemiological evidence linking environmental temperature and gestational diabetes. Furthermore, the physiological mechanisms that give biological plausibility to association between GDM and temperature are explored. As future climate patterns could drive global changes in GDM prevalence, this knowledge has important implications for both clinicians and researchers.
Under the climate change scenario, the negative impacts of urban heat island (UHI) will exacerbate due to unsustainable urban planning and human activities. Thermal comfort has close relationships with UHI in urban areas. This paper is based on the studies of urban heat island, thermal comfort, microclimate, and urban planning in cities in the recent decade, combined with a method of research into design. The key topics include vegetation and water conditions, the albedo of materials, and urban morphology. By the comparative case studies in landscape projects, the results further reveal that the density of tree canopies, the natural structure and density of ground cover, the form of water features, the color and texture of materials, and the scale of shading structures have different cooling effect and performance in outdoor thermal comfort improvement with specific features in the landscape design. It is also found that there are some external conditions that can influence design determinations in real practices. The purpose of this study is to provide theoretical research methods and evaluation of thermal comfort landscape design elements and to provide guidance for future sustainable city research and landscape design.
Urban outdoor thermal conditions, and its impacts on the health and well-being for the city inhabitants have reached increased attention among biometeorological studies during the last two decades. Children are considered more sensitive and vulnerable to hot ambient conditions compared to adults, and are affected strongly by their thermal environment. One of the urban outdoor environments that children spend almost one third of their school time is the schoolyard. The aims of the present manuscript were to review studies conducted worldwide, in order to present the biophysical characteristics of the typical design of the urban schoolyard. This was done to assess, in terms of bioclimatology, the interactions between the thermal environment and the children’s body, to discuss the adverse effects of thermal environment on children, especially the case of heat stress, and to propose measures that could be applied to improve the thermal environment of schoolyards, focusing on vegetation. Human thermal comfort monitoring tools are mainly developed for adults, thus, further research is needed to adapt them to children. The schemes that are usually followed to design urban schoolyards create conditions that favour the exposure of children to excessive heat, inducing high health risks to them. The literature survey showed that typical urban schoolyard design (i.e., dense surface materials, absence of trees) triggered high surface temperatures (that may exceed 58 degrees C) and increased absorption of radiative heat load (that may exceed 64 degrees C in terms of Mean Radiant Temperature) during a clear day with intense solar radiation. Furthermore, vegetation cover has a positive impact on schoolyard’s microclimate, by improving thermal comfort and reducing heat stress perception of children. Design options for urban schoolyards and strategies that can mitigate the adverse effects of heat stress are proposed with focus on vegetation cover that affect positively their thermal environment and improve their aesthetic and functionality.
Skin cancer is a non-communicable disease that has been underexplored in Africa, including Southern Africa. Exposure to solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is an important, potentially modifiable risk factor for skin cancer. The countries which comprise Southern Africa are Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland. They differ in population size and composition and experience different levels of solar UVR. Here, the epidemiology and prevalence of skin cancer in Southern African countries are outlined. Information is provided on skin cancer prevention campaigns in these countries, and evidence sought to support recommendations for skin cancer prevention, especially for people with fair skin, or oculocutaneous albinism or HIV-AIDS who are at the greatest risk. Consideration is given to the possible impacts of climate change on skin cancer in Southern Africa and the need for adaptation and human behavioural change is emphasized.
Objective: Skin cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer and rates are increasing because of global warming. This article reports a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of behavioral interventions to reduce exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR). The review aimed to (a) quantify the magnitude of intervention effects on indoor tanning, sun exposure, and sunscreen use, and (b) determine which intervention strategies maximize behavior change. Method: Out of 17,437 records identified via literature searches, 190 independent tests (N = 89,365) met the inclusion criteria. Sample, intervention, and methodological characteristics, and change techniques were coded, and random effects meta-analyses and metaregressions were conducted. Results: The sample-weighted average effect size across all studies was d(+) = .193 (95% confidence interval, CI [.161, .226]), and there were significant effects on indoor tanning, sun exposure, and sunscreen use (d(+) = .080, .149, and .196, respectively). However, there was evidence of publication bias, and trim and fill analyses indicated that the corrected effects for sun exposure and sunscreen use were of very small magnitude (d(+) ~ .06) and were not significantly different from zero for indoor tanning (d(+) = -.011, 95% CI [-.096, .074]). Metaregression analyses identified several intervention strategies that predicted effect sizes. For instance, interventions delivered individually that promoted alternatives to tanning were associated with larger effect sizes for indoor tanning. Conclusion: Interventions to date have had only a modest impact on behavioral exposure to UVR. The present findings offer new insights into how the effectiveness of future interventions can be improved. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).
The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between ambient temperature, ultraviolet radiation, and the development of herpes zoster in Taiwan. An ecological study was conducted to analyse the database of the Taiwan National Health Insurance Programme. Participants aged ?20 years with newly diagnosed herpes zoster between 2003 and 2012 were selected for analysis. The monthly incidence rate of herpes zoster was measured between 2003 and 2012. Monthly average ambient temperature in Celsius (°C) between 2003 and 2012 was measured according to the official database of the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan. Monthly accumulated ultraviolet radiation (MJ m(-2) ) between 2003 and 2012 was measured according to the official database of the Environmental Protection Administration in Taiwan. The overall incidence rates of herpes zoster ranged from 2.54 to 5.67 per 10 000 persons per month from 2003 to 2012.The monthly average ambient temperature was higher and the monthly accumulated ultraviolet radiation was stronger from May to October. The incidence rates of herpes zoster seemed to be high during the period of high ambient temperature and strong ultraviolet radiation (from May to October).Whenever ambient temperature increased 1°C per month, the incidence rate of herpes zoster increased by 0.072 per 10,000 persons per month. Whenever ultraviolet radiation increased 1 MJ m(-2) per month, the incidence rate of herpes zoster increased by 0.313 per 10 000 persons per month. There is a significant association between ambient temperature, ultraviolet radiation, and the development of herpes zoster in Taiwan. The incidence rate of herpes zoster is high during the period of high ambient temperature and strong ultraviolet radiation. Low ambient temperature and weak ultraviolet radiation might be beneficial for the prevention of herpes zoster.
In recent years, there have been considerable changes in the distribution of diseases that are potentially tied to ongoing climate variability. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the incidence of cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) and climatic factors in an Iranian city (Isfahan), which had the highest incidence of CL in the country. CL incidence and meteorological data were acquired from April 2010 to March 2017 (108 months) for Isfahan City. Univariate and multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), generalized additive models (GAM), and generalized additive mixed models (GAMM) were used to identify the association between CL cases and meteorological variables, and forecast CL incidence. AIC, BIC, and residual tests were used to test the goodness of fit of SARIMA models; and R(2) was used for GAM/GAMM. 6798 CL cases were recorded during this time. The incidence had a seasonal pattern and the highest number of cases was recorded from August to October. In univariate SARIMA, (1,0,1) (0,1,1)(12) was the best fit for predicting CL incidence (AIC=8.09, BIC=8.32). Time series regression (1,0,1) (0,1,1)(12) showed that monthly mean humidity after 4-month lag was inversely related to CL incidence (AIC=8.53, BIC=8.66). GAMM results showed that average temperature with 2-month lag, average relative humidity with 3-month lag, monthly cumulative rainfall with 1-month lag, and monthly sunshine hours with 1-month lag were related to CL incidence (R(2)=0.94). The impact of meteorological variables on the incidence of CL is not linear and GAM models that include non-linear structures are a better fit for prediction. In Isfahan, Iran, meteorological variables can greatly predict the incidence of CL, and these variables can be used for predicting outbreaks.
Urbanization models that do not comply with the planning criteria are affecting human lives. In urban areas, street trees have positive contributions to the ecosystem and human thermal comfort. In this study, the thermal comfort of the main streets that connect people to each other and provide access and transportation has been thermally explored. Cumhuriyet Street, which is one of the vibrant streets in Erzurum, was selected as a case study scenario in the winter and summer periods in 2018 by using the ENVI-met V. 4.4.2 winter model. A different green scenario is proposed, and the best thermal comfort scenario in both seasons is determined. The results show that, in the summer period, the air temperature of the greener street scenario is about 1.0 °C cooler than the existing condition and about 2.0 °C warmer in the winter period. Physiological equivalent temperature (PET) value was better in narrow canyon streets in winter months, but in wide canyon streets in summer months. The green scenarios of wide canyon streets positively affect the outdoor thermal comfort in both seasons. These results clearly imply that green streets are an appropriate strategy for city streets that suffer from discomfort levels in cold winter and hot summer periods. It has been concluded that it is possible to increase thermal comfort through improvement in the open space in street and more suitable plant preferences for livable urbanization. Planning streets in a new city characterized by summer and winter seasons should take into consideration an accurate decision for providing a thermal comfort level and healthy urbanization.
Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) distribution is bounded to a subtropical area in Argentina, while Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) covers both temperate and subtropical regions. We assessed thermal and photoperiod conditions on dormancy status, development time and mortality for these species from subtropical Argentina. Short days (8 light : 16 dark) significantly increased larval development time for both species, an effect previously linked to diapause incidence. Aedes albopictus showed higher mortality than Ae. aegypti at 16?°C under long day treatments (16 light : 8 dark), which could indicate a lower tolerance to a sudden temperature decrease during the summer season. Aedes albopictus showed a slightly higher percentage of dormant eggs from females exposed to a short day, relative to previous research in Brazilian populations. Since we employed more hours of darkness, this could suggest a relationship between day-length and dormancy intensity. Interestingly, local Ae. aegypti presented dormancy similar to Ae. albopictus, in accordance with temperate populations. The minimum dormancy in Ae. albopictus would not be sufficient to extend its bounded distribution. We believe that these findings represent a novel contribution to current knowledge about the ecophysiology of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti, two species with great epidemiological relevance in this subtropical region.
Heat stress decreases human physical work capacity (PWC), but the extent to which solar radiation (SOLAR) compounds this response is not well understood. This study empirically quantified how SOLAR impacts PWC in the heat, considering wide, but controlled, variations in air temperature, humidity, and clothing coverage. We also provide correction equations so PWC can be quantified outdoors using heat stress indices that do not ordinarily account for SOLAR (including the Heat Stress Index, Humidex, and Wet-Bulb Temperature). Fourteen young adult males (7 donning a work coverall, 7 with shorts and trainers) walked for 1 h at a fixed heart rate of 130 beats?min(-)1, in seven combinations of air temperature (25 to 45°C) and relative humidity (20 or 80%), with and without SOLAR (800 W/m(2) from solar lamps). Cumulative energy expenditure in the heat, relative to the work achieved in a cool reference condition, was used to determine PWC%. Skin temperature was the primary determinant of PWC in the heat. In dry climates with exposed skin (0.3 Clo), SOLAR caused PWC to decrease exponentially with rising air temperature, whereas work coveralls (0.9 Clo) negated this effect. In humid conditions, the SOLAR-induced reduction in PWC was consistent and linear across all levels of air temperature and clothing conditions. Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index represented SOLAR correctly and did not require a correction factor. For the Heat Stress Index, Humidex, and Wet-Bulb Temperature, correction factors are provided enabling forecasting of heat effects on work productivity.
We analyzed two historical extreme heat events in Los Angeles to explore the potential of increasing vegetative cover and surface solar reflectance (albedo) to reduce total exposure (indoor and outdoor) to dangerously hot conditions. We focus on three population subgroups, the elderly, office workers, and outdoor workers, and explore the extreme case where each subgroup does not have functioning air conditioning in their residences. For each heat event, we conducted atmospheric model simulations for a control case and four mitigation cases with varying levels of increased albedo and vegetation cover. Simultaneously, we conducted building simulations of representative residential buildings that lacked mechanical air conditioning. These simulations factored in both the indirect cooling effects associated with neighborhood implementation of mitigation strategies and the direct effects of high albedo roofing on the individual buildings. From both the atmospheric and building models, we exported hourly values of air temperature and dew point temperature, and used this information in combination with various scenarios of occupant behavior to create profiles of individual heat exposure. We also gathered heat-mortality data for the two heat events and developed a synoptic climatology-based relationship between exposure and excess mortality. This relationship was then applied to the scenarios in which albedo and canopy cover were increased. The results suggest that improvements in indoor thermal conditions are responsible for a sizable portion of the health benefit of large-scale implementation of heat mitigation strategies.
Major pandemics involving respiratory viruses develop semi-regularly and require a large flux of novel viruses, yet their origination is equivocal. This paper explores how natural processes could give rise to this puzzling combination of characteristics. Our model is based on available data regarding the emergence of historic influenzas, early COVID-19 cases and spreading, the microbiome of permafrost, long-distance airborne transport of viruses reaching stratospheric levels, ultraviolet immunosuppression, sunlight variations, weather patterns, Arctic thawing, and global warming. Atmospheric conveyance is supported by hemispheric distribution disparities, ties of COVID-19 cases to air pollution particulate concentrations, and contemporaneous animal infections. The following sequence is proposed: (1) virus emergence after hot Arctic summers, predominantly near solar irradiance maxima or involving wildfires, indicates release of large amounts of ancient viruses during extensive permafrost melting, which are then incorporated in autumn polar air circulation, where cold storage and little sunlight permit survival. (2) Pandemics onset in winter to spring at rather few locations: from climate data on Wuhan, emergence occurs where the North Polar Jet stream hovers while intersecting warmer, moist air, producing rain which deposits particulates with the viral harvest on a vulnerable human population. (3) Spring and summer increases in COVID-19 cases link to high solar irradiance, implicating ultraviolet immune suppression as one means of amplification. (4) Viruses multiplied by infected humans at close range being incorporated in atmospheric circulation explains rapid global spread, periodic case surges (waves), and multi-year durations. Pollution and wind geography affect uptake and re-distribution. Our model can be tested, e.g., against permafrost stored in laboratories as well as Artic air samples, and suggests mitigating actions.
Schizophrenia (SCZ) hospital re-admissions constitute a serious disease burden worldwide. Some studies have reported an association between air pollutants and hospital admissions for SCZ. However, evidence is scarce regarding the effects of ambient particulate matter (PM) on SCZ hospital re-admissions, especially in coastal cities in China. The purpose of this study was to examine whether PM affects the risk of SCZ hospital re-admission in the coastal Chinese city of Qingdao. Daily SCZ hospital re-admissions, daily air pollutants, and meteorological factors from 2015 to 2019 were collected. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to model the exposure-lag-response relationship between PM and SCZ hospital re-admissions. The relative risks (RRs) were estimated for an inter-quartile range (IQR) increase in PM concentrations. Subgroup analyses by age and gender were conducted to identify the vulnerable subgroups. There were 6220 SCZ hospital re-admissions during 2015-2019. The results revealed that PM, including PM(10) (particles with an aerodynamic diameter ?10 ?m), PM(c) (particles >2.5 ?m but <10 ?m), and PM(2.5) (particles ?2.5 ?m), was positively correlated with SCZ hospital re-admissions. The strongest single-day effects all occurred on lag3 day, and the corresponding RRs were 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02-1.11) for PM(10), 1.03 (95% CI: 1.00-1.07) for PM(c), and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01-1.09) for PM(2.5) per IQR increase. Stronger associations were observed in males and younger individuals (<45 years). Our findings suggest that PM exposure is associated with increased risk of SCZ hospital re-admission. Active intervention measures against PM exposure should be taken to reduce the risk of SCZ hospital re-admission, especially for males and younger individuals.
Difficulties in controlling the effects of outdoor thermal environment on the human body are attracting considerable research attention. This study investigated the outdoor thermal comfort of urban pedestrians by assessing their perceptions of the tropical, micrometeorological, and physical conditions via a questionnaire survey. Evaluation of the outdoor thermal comfort involved pedestrians performing various physical activities (sitting, walking, and standing) in outdoor and semi-outdoor spaces where the data collection of air temperature, globe temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, metabolic activity, and clothing insulation data was done simultaneously. A total of 1011 participants were interviewed, and the micrometeorological data were recorded under outdoor and semi-outdoor conditions at two Malaysian university campuses. The neutral temperatures obtained which were 28.1 °C and 30.8 °C were within the biothermal acceptable ranges of 24-34 °C and 26-33 °C of the PET thermal sensation ranges for the outdoor and semi-outdoor conditions, respectively. Additionally, the participants’ thermal sensation and preference votes were highly correlated with the PET and strongly related to air and mean radiant temperatures. The findings demonstrated the influence of individuals’ thermal adaptation on the outdoor thermal comfort levels. This knowledge could be useful in the planning and designing of outdoor environments in hot and humid regions to create better thermal environments.
INTRODUCTION: Patients with primary Sjögren’s syndrome (pSS) reportedly believe that their symptoms worsen on extreme weather days due to variations in environmental conditions. However, few studies have assessed the acute effects of environmental exposure on the onset of pSS. This study aimed to evaluate the exposure-response relationship between extreme environmental conditions and pSS outpatient visits. METHOD: We obtained data on pSS outpatient visits from two provincial general hospitals in Hefei, China, during 2014-2019. A distributed lag non-linear model was used to estimate the exposure-lag-response relationship between environmental variables and pSS. RESULTS: We detected significant and non-linear associations between extreme environments and pSS. The estimated relative risk (RR) for a lag of 3 days was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.03 to 1.19) for extreme cold and for a lag of 21 days was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.12) for extreme dampness. Long sunshine duration was positively correlated with pSS (lag 11, 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.08). Moreover, female patients were more susceptible to these effects. Patients older than 65 years old were more vulnerable to frigid environments (lag 3, RR?=?1.30, 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.54), while younger patients were more vulnerable to extreme dampness (lag 21, RR?=?1.10, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.16). Extreme cold and high humidity were negatively correlated with the same-day outpatient visits. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a potential relationship between exposure to extreme environmental conditions and increased risk of pSS outpatient visits. We therefore suggest that policymakers and doctors aim to further our understanding of environmental effects on pSS and adopt adequate measures to alleviate pSS symptoms. Key Points • Extreme cold, extreme dampness, and long sunshine duration increased the risk of pSS outpatient visits, especially for females. • Young pSS patients are more susceptible to a rise in humidity. • Elderly pSS patients are more sensitive to extreme cold weather.
Extreme heat is one of the most pressing climate risks in the United States and is exacerbated by a warming climate and aging population. Much work in heat health has focused only on temperature-based metrics, which do not fully measure the physiological impact of heat stress on the human body. The U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) consists of 139 sites across the United States and includes meteorological parameters that fully encompass human tolerance to heat, including relative humidity, wind, and solar radiation. Hourly and 5-min observations from USCRN are used to develop heat exposure products, including heat index (HI), apparent temperature (AT), and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). Validation of this product is conducted with nearby airport and mesonet stations, with reanalysis data used to fill in data gaps. Using these derived heat products, two separate analyses are conducted. The first is based on standardized anomalies, which place current heat state in the context of a long-term climate record. In the second study, heat events are classified by time spent at various levels of severity of conditions. There is no consensus as to what defines a heat event, so a comparison of absolute thresholds (i.e., >= 30.0 degrees, 35.0 degrees, and 40.0 degrees C) and relative thresholds (>= 90th, 95th, and 98th percentile) will be examined. The efficacy of the product set will be studied using an extreme heat case study in the southeastern United States. While no heat exposure metric is deemed superior, each has their own advantages and caveats, especially in the context of public communication.
Current models for flu-like epidemics insufficiently explain multi-cycle seasonality. Meteorological factors alone, including the associated behavior, do not predict seasonality, given substantial climate differences between countries that are subject to flu-like epidemics or COVID-19. Pollen is documented to be allergenic, it plays a role in immuno-activation and defense against respiratory viruses, and seems to create a bio-aerosol that lowers the reproduction number of flu-like viruses. Therefore, we hypothesize that pollen may explain the seasonality of flu-like epidemics, including COVID-19, in combination with meteorological variables. We have tested the Pollen-Flu Seasonality Theory for 2016-2020 flu-like seasons, including COVID-19, in the Netherlands, with its 17.4 million inhabitants. We combined changes in flu-like incidence per 100 K/Dutch residents (code: ILI) with pollen concentrations and meteorological data. Finally, a predictive model was tested using pollen and meteorological threshold values, inversely correlated to flu-like incidence. We found a highly significant inverse correlation of r(224) = -0.41 (p < 0.001) between pollen and changes in flu-like incidence, corrected for the incubation period. The correlation was stronger after taking into account the incubation time. We found that our predictive model has the highest inverse correlation with changes in flu-like incidence of r(222) = -0.48 (p < 0.001) when average thresholds of 610 total pollen grains/m(3), 120 allergenic pollen grains/m(3), and a solar radiation of 510 J/cm(2) are passed. The passing of at least the pollen thresholds, preludes the beginning and end of flu-like seasons. Solar radiation is a co-inhibitor of flu-like incidence, while temperature makes no difference. However, higher relative humidity increases with flu-like incidence. We conclude that pollen is a predictor of the inverse seasonality of flu-like epidemics, including COVID-19, and that solar radiation is a co-inhibitor, in the Netherlands.
Spermatogenesis is a temperature-dependent process, and high summer temperatures have been linked to lower sperm concentration and count. However, reports describing the association between other meteorological variables and semen quality are scarce. This study evaluated the association between semen quality and temperature, humidity, pressure, apparent temperature (AT), temperature-humidity index (THI), simplified wet-bulb global temperature (sWBGT), and sunshine duration. Semen samples were obtained at the Laboratorio de Andrología y Reproducción (LAR, Argentina), from men undergoing routine andrology examination (n=11657) and computer-assisted sperm analysis (n=4705) following WHO 2010 criteria. Meteorological variables readings were obtained from the Sistema Meteorológico Nacional. Sperm quality parameters were negatively affected in summer when compared to winter. Additionally, there was a significant decrease in sperm kinematics between winter and spring. Branch and bound variable selection followed by multiple regression analysis revealed a significant association between semen quality and meteorological variables. Specifically, changes in sunshine duration and humidity reinforced the prognosis of semen quality. Highest/lowest sunshine duration and humidity quantiles resulted in decreased sperm concentration, count, motility, vitality and membrane competence, nuclear maturity, and sperm kinematics associated to highest sunshine duration and lowest humidity. Findings from this report highlight the relevance of environmental studies for predicting alterations in male reproductive health associated to variations in meteorological variables, especially considering the current climate changes around the planet due to global warming and its consequences for human health.
Hot weather not only impacts upon human physical comfort and health, but also impacts the way that people access and experience active travel options such as walking and cycling. By evaluating the street thermal environment of a city alongside an assessment of those communities that are the most vulnerable to the effects of heat, we can prioritise areas in which heat mitigation interventions are most needed. In this paper, we propose a new approach for policy makers to determine where to delegate limited resources for heat mitigation with most effective outcomes for the communities. We use eye-level street panorama images and community profiles to provide a bottom-up, human-centred perspective of the city scale assessment, highlighting the situation of urban tree shade provision throughout the streets in comparison with environmental and social-economic status. The approach leverages multiple sources of spatial data including satellite thermal images, Google street view (GSV) images, land use and demographic census data. A deep learning model was developed to automate the classification of streetscape types and percentages at the street- and eye-view level. The methodology is metrics based and scalable which provides a data driven assessment of heat-related vulnerability. The findings of this study first contribute to sustainable development by developing a method to identify geographical areas or neighbourhoods that require heat mitigation; and enforce policies improving tree shade on routes, as a heat adaptation strategy, which will lead to increasing active travel and produce significant health benefits for residents. The approach can be also used to guide post COVID-19 city planning and design.
The mean radiant temperature (T(mrt)) is the most important meteorological factor influencing human thermal comfort in urban areas. Numerous methods have been implemented for estimating T(mrt) using measured radiometer or thermometer data, and exhibit different levels of accuracy. This study presents a simple technique based on the traditional method (T(mrt_TM)) to estimate T(mrt) by utilizing measured radiation data from the radiometers. The estimated T(mrt) values from the six-directional method (T(mrt_SM)) and two black globe thermometer methods (T(mrt_BG) and T(mrt_BGv)) at two stations (sky view factor 0.69 and 0.94) in Jeju, Republic of Korea, for 8 days (5 sunny days, 3 (semi-) cloudy days) in spring and summer were used to validate the T(mrt_TM). The results showed that the mean differences between T(mrt_TM) and T(mrt_SM) were within the required accuracy for comfort in ISO 7726 (±?2 ?) on sunny days and were reduced to 0.1-0.3 ? in high T(mrt) conditions such as clear summer days. The T(mrt_BG) in most sunny and semi-cloudy days and T(mrt_BGv) on all days resulted in large mean differences from the T(mrt_TM) that exceeded the required accuracy for thermal stress in ISO 7726 (±?5 ?). Therefore, both black globe thermometer methods should be used carefully when estimating T(mrt), especially during sunny days. The correlations between T(mrt_TM) and T(mrt_SM) were highly significant, 0.93 on all days (p?=?0.01). The newly developed regression equations between T(mrt_TM) and T(mrt_SM) could reduce mean differences within 0.5 ? for all days, and their r(2) values exceeded 0.87. Therefore, the simple T(mrt_TM) technique can be used for T(mrt) estimation in human thermal comfort studies.
Cities are particularly sensitive to the effects of climate change, causing an increasing incidence of heat waves. Extreme temperatures can impair the use of public spaces in cities, as heat stress endangers human well-being and health. Identifying suitable adaptation measures to maintain the full functionality of public spaces requires a multidimensional approach, accounting for interrelated scientific, social, and practical aspects. As one result we introduce an inter- and transdisciplinary concept that addresses the challenge of adapting public spaces to climate change. Additionally we present a pilot study from Heidelberg, Germany, where a new, sustainable urban quarter experienced more pronounced heat stress than the historic city centre in the hot and dry summer of 2018. The study shows the suitability of our approach to identify appropriate heat adaptation measures. Solar potential modelling and mental map surveys proved to be particularly effective methods. We find that adaptation measures generate synergy effects by improving both climatic and social conditions.
The physical nature of the built urban environment gives rise to urban heat islands (UHI), making many cities frequently thermally uncomfortable in the summer, with potentially serious effects on human health. When climate change effects of higher summer temperatures and prolonged heatwaves are factored in, it is clear that adaptive measures are needed to ensure the liveability of cities. The shade provided by planting trees is one such adaptation measure. This study, in Bolzano, Italy, used a thermal camera to record the surface temperatures of three common urban surfaces – asphalt, porphyry, and grass – in the shade of 332 single tree crowns, of 85 different species, during the peak temperature period of summer days. By comparing with the temperature of adjacent unshaded ground, estimates of the degree of surface cooling were made. Measurements at three locations within the shadow revealed higher cooling in the centre and at the western edge. The cooling was related to a multitude of tree traits, of which Leaf Area Index estimate (LAIcept) and crown width were the most important. Median average cooling of 16.4, 12.9 and 8.5 degrees C was seen in the western edge of the tree shade for asphalt, porphyry and grass, respectively. Maximum temperatures were reduced by roughly 19 degrees C for all surface types. Coniferous trees were capable of providing high cooling, however, crown dimensions may limit the receiving surface area. Descriptive and predictive multiple linear regression models were able to predict cooling with some success from several of the predictor variables (LAIcept and gap fraction). Strategic planting of single trees in cities can have significant impacts on the absorption of solar radiation by ground surface materials thus reducing the heat storage that contributes to UHIs.
OBJECTIVE: By studying the effect of environmental factors on health, it is clear that geographical, climatic and environmental factors have a significant impact on human health. This study, based on the data of the patients with breast cancer in Iran since 2010 to 2014 and using the statistical methods has determined the effect of geographical features of Iran (solar radiation status, radiation angle) on the frequency and distribution of this disease. RESULTS: The maximum amount of total solar radiation occurs in the vicinity (surrounding) of the tropic of cancer, which covers some parts of the south of Iran and in the atmosphere of the northern latitudes of Iran. The amount of humidity and cloudiness is more than the southern latitudes, which causes more reflection of short waves of the sun during the day. Findings showed that the rate of breast cancer in low latitudes is higher than high latitudes. It was also found that with increasing longitude, the rate of cancer increases significantly due to the high thickness of the atmosphere and receiving more sunlight in the electromagnetic spectrum, as well as dry air and low water vapor in low altitude areas of eastern and southeastern Iran.
Fecal coliform bacteria are a key indicator of human health risks; however, the spatiotemporal variability and key influencing factors of river fecal coliform have yet to be explored in a rural-suburban-urban watershed with multiple land uses. In this study, the fecal coliform concentrations in 21 river sections were monitored for 20 months, and 441 samples were analyzed. Multivariable regressions were used to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of fecal coliform. The results showed that spatial differences were mainly dominated by urbanization level, and environmental factors could explain the temporal dynamics of fecal coliform in different urban patterns except in areas with high urbanization levels. Reducing suspended solids is a direct way to manage fecal coliform in the Beiyun River when the natural factors are difficulty to change, such as temperature and solar radiation. The export of fecal coliform from urban areas showed a quick and sensitive response to rainfall events and increased dozens of times in the short term. Landscape patterns, such as the fragmentation of impervious surfaces and the overall landscape, were identified as key factors influencing urban non-point source bacteria. The results obtained from this study will provide insight into the management of river fecal pollution.
BACKGROUND: Outdoor workers are at risk of prolonged and high solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, which is known to cause skin cancer. The objectives of this study were to characterize the UVR exposure levels of outdoor workers in Alberta, Canada, and to investigate what factors may contribute to their exposure. METHODS: This study collected objective solar UVR measurements from outdoor workers primarily in Alberta during the summer of 2019. Workers were recruited via the management or health and safety teams from building trade unions and employers. Calibrated, electronic UVR dosimeters were worn by workers on their hardhats, wrists, or lapels for five working days. Data on workers’ demographics, jobs, sun protection behaviors, and personal risk factors were collected using questionnaires, and meteorological data for each sampling day were noted. Mean daily exposure measured as the standard erythemal dose (SED) was calculated and compared to the international occupational exposure limit guideline (1.3 SED). Marginal models were developed to evaluate potential determinants of occupational solar UVR exposure. RESULTS: In total, 883 measurements were collected from 179 workers. On average, workerswere exposed to 1.93 SED (range: 0.03-16.63 SED) per day. Just under half of workers (45%) were exposed to levels exceeding the international exposure limit guideline. In the bivariate analyses, landscape and maintenance workers, as well as trade and recreation workers, had the highest levels of exposure (average: 2.64 and 1.84 SED, respectively). Regional variations were observed, with the “other” cities/regions (outside of Edmonton and Calgary) experiencing the highest average levels (2.60 SED). Workers who placed the dosimeters on their hardhats experienced higher levels compared to the other groups. Exposure was highest on sunny and mixed days. Education, trade, city, dosimeter placement, forecast, hair colour, and number of hours outside were included in the final exposure model, of which trade, dosimeter placement, forecast, and number of hours outside at work were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to elevated solar UVR levels is common among outdoor workers in Alberta. The study findings can help inform future monitoring studies and exposure reduction initiatives aimed at protecting workers.
BACKGROUND: The human skin is greatly affected by external factors such as UV radiation (UVR), ambient temperature (T), and air humidity. These factors oscillate during the year giving rise to the seasonal variations in the skin properties. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of seasons, environmental T, relative and absolute humidity on the skin parameters of Caucasian women, perform a literature review and discuss the possible factors lying behind the found changes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We measured stratum corneum (SC) hydration, transepidermal water loss (TEWL), sebum level, erythema index, and elasticity parameters R2 and R7 on the forehead and the cheek of Caucasian women from the Czech Republic throughout the year. We also performed a non-systematic literature review focused on the seasonal variations in these skin parameters. RESULTS: We confirmed a well-documented low SC hydration and sebum production in winter. In spring, we found the lowest TEWL (on the forehead) and the highest SC hydration but also the highest erythema index and the lowest elasticity presumably indicating skin photodamage. For most of the skin parameters, the seasonal variations probably arise due to a complex action of different factors as we extensively discussed. CONCLUSION: The data about the seasonal variations in the skin parameters are still highly inconsistent and further studies are needed for better understanding of the normal skin changes throughout the year.
Consideration of the implications of solar UV exposure on public health during extreme temperature events is important due to their increasing frequency as a result of climate change. In this paper public health impacts of solar UV exposure, both positive and negative, during extreme hot and cold weather in England in 2018 were assessed by analysing environmental variations in UV and temperature. Consideration was given to people’s likely behaviour, the current alert system and public health advice. During a period of severe cold weather in February-March 2018 UV daily doses were around 25-50% lower than the long-term average (1991-2017); however, this would not impact on sunburn risk or the benefit of vitamin D production. In spring 2018 unseasonably high temperatures coincided with high UV daily doses (40-75% above long-term average) on significant days: the London Marathon (22 April) and UK May Day Bank Holiday weekend, which includes a public holiday on the Monday (5-7 May). People were likely to have intermittent excess solar UV exposure on unacclimatised skin, causing sunburn and potentially increasing the risk of skin cancers. No alerts were raised for these events since they occurred outside the alerting period. During a heat-wave in summer 2018 the environmental availability of UV was high-on average of 25% above the long-term average. The public health implications are complex and highly dependent on behaviour and sociodemographic variables such as skin colour. For all three periods Pearson’s correlation analysis showed a statistically significant (p<0.05) positive correlation between maximum daily temperature and erythema-effective UV daily dose. Public health advice may be improved by taking account of both temperature and UV and their implications for behaviour. A health impact-based alert system would be of benefit throughout the year, particularly in spring and summer.
This study reveals the best combination of meteorological variables for the prediction of the number of emergency transport due to heat stroke over 64 years old in Tokyo metropolis based on a generalized linear model using 2008-2016 data. Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were used as candidates of the explanatory variables. The variable selection with Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) showed that all the four meteorological elements were selected for the prediction model. Additional analysis showed that the combination of daily mean temperature, maximum relative humidity, maximum wind speed, and total solar radiation as explanatory variables gives the best prediction, with approximately 19% less error than the conventional single-variable model which only uses the daily mean temperature. Finally, we quantitatively estimated the relative contribution of each variable to the prediction of the daily number of heat stroke patients using standardized partial regression coefficients. The result reveals that temperature is the largest contributor. Solar radiation is second, with approximately 20% of the temperature effect. Relative humidity and wind speed make relatively small contributions, each contributing approximately 10% and 9% of the temperature, respectively. This result provides helpful information to propose more sophisticated thermal indices to predict heat stroke risk.
OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the status of Vitamin D deficiency and the effect of environmental factors on Vitamin D levels so as to provide theoretical support for public health promotion in this region. METHODS: A total of 22,387 subjects who underwent a physical examination at the center in the West China Hospital, Sichuan University, between April, 2018 and May, 2020 were enrolled in this study. Their data on gender, age, inspection date, serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25-(OH) D), parathyroid hormone (PTH), and total calcium were retrospectively reviewed. Next, the percentage of Vitamin D status was compared in different sex and age groups, and the fluctuation of Vitamin D level was described in relation to the change of environment. Finally, the univariable and multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to explore the risk and protective factors of Vitamin D deficiency. RESULTS: The proportion of Vitamin D deficiency in this area was 42.17%, and it was significantly higher among women and young people. The fluctuation trend of 25-(OH) D levels are consistent with temperature and solar radiation, and opposite to air quality, in the whole year. There was a positive relationship between 25-(OH) D levels with temperature and solar radiation; however, parathyroid hormone, female and AQI were negatively correlated with Vitamin D levels. CONCLUSION: Vitamin D deficiency is common in subtropic areas, such as Sichuan Basin, which is related to solar radiation and air pollution.
BACKGROUND: Differences in multiple sclerosis (MS) risk by latitude have been observed worldwide; however, the exposures driving these associations are unknown. Ultraviolet radiation (UV) has been explored as a risk factor, and ambient temperature has been correlated with disease progression. However, no study has examined the impact of all three exposures. We examined the association between these exposures and incidence of MS within two nationwide prospective cohorts of women, the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and Nurses’ Health Study II (NHSII). METHODS: Both cohorts were followed with biennial questionnaires to ascertain new diagnoses and risk factors. Time-varying exposures to latitude, cumulative average July temperature (°C), and cumulative average July erythemal UV (mW/m(2)) were predicted at each participant’s biennially updated residential addresses. Using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for MS risk factors, we calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) within each cohort and pooled via meta-analyses. RESULTS: In multivariable models, there were suggestions that decreasing latitude (meta-analysis multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.72; 95% CI 0.55, 0.94 for women living <35.73° compared with those ?42.15°, P-for-trend = 0.007) and increasing cumulative average July temperature (meta-analysis multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.72, 0.91 for each interquartile range increase [3.91°]) were associated with decreasing risk of MS. There was no evidence of heterogeneity between cohorts. We did not observe consistent associations with cumulative average UV. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that adult exposures to decreasing latitude and increasing temperature, but not UV, were associated with reduced MS risk in these two cohorts of women. Studies of MS incidence may want to consider temperature as a risk factor.
SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) Coronavirus cases are confirmed throughout the world and millions of people are being put into quarantine. A better understanding of the effective parameters in infection spreading can bring about a logical measurement toward COVID-19. The effect of climatic factors on spreading of COVID-19 can play an important role in the new Coronavirus outbreak. In this study, the main parameters, including the number of infected people with COVID-19, population density, intra-provincial movement, and infection days to end of the study period, average temperature, average precipitation, humidity, wind speed, and average solar radiation investigated to understand how can these parameters effects on COVID-19 spreading in Iran? The Partial correlation coefficient (PCC) and Sobol’-Jansen methods are used for analyzing the effect and correlation of variables with the COVID-19 spreading rate. The result of sensitivity analysis shows that the population density, intra-provincial movement have a direct relationship with the infection outbreak. Conversely, areas with low values of wind speed, humidity, and solar radiation exposure to a high rate of infection that support the virus’s survival. The provinces such as Tehran, Mazandaran, Alborz, Gilan, and Qom are more susceptible to infection because of high population density, intra-provincial movements and high humidity rate in comparison with Southern provinces.
India and other Southeast Asian countries are severely affected by Japanese encephalitis (JE), one of the deadliest vector-borne disease threat to human health. Several epidemiological observations suggest climate variables play a role in providing a favorable environment for mosquito development and virus transmission. In this study, generalized additive models were used to determine the association of JE admissions and mortality with climate variables in Gorakhpur district, India, from 2001-2016. The model predicted that every 1 unit increase in mean (Tmean;°C), and minimum (Tmin;°C) temperature, rainfall (RF; mm) and relative humidity (RH; %) would on average increase the JE admissions by 22.23 %, 17.83 %, 0.66 %, and 5.22 % respectively and JE mortality by 13.27 %, 11.77 %, 0.94 %, and 3.27 % respectively Conversely, every unit decrease in solar radiation (Srad; MJ/m(2)/day) and wind speed (WS; Kmph) caused an increase in JE admission by 17% and 11.42% and in JE mortality by 9.37% and 4.88% respectively suggesting a protective effect at higher levels. The seasonal analysis shows that temperature was significantly associated with JE in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon while RF, RH, Srad, and WS are associated with the monsoon. Effect modification due to age and gender showed an equal risk for both genders and increased risk for adults above 15 years of age, however, males and age groups under 15 years outnumbered females and adults. Sensitivity analysis results to explore lag effects in climate variables showed that climate variables show the strongest association at lag 1 to 1.5 months with significant lag effect up tp lag 0-60 days. The exposure-response curve for climate variables showed a more or less linear relationship, with an increase in JE admissions and mortality after a certain threshold and decrease were reported at extreme levels of exposure. The study concludes that climate variables could influence the JE vector development and multiplication and parasite maturation and transmission in the Gorakhpur region whose indirect impact was noted for JE admission and mortality. In response to the changing climate, public health interventions, public awareness, and early warning systems would play an unprecedented role to compensate for future risk.
Infectious diseases are a major health challenge for the worldwide population. Since their rapid spread can cause great distress to the real world, in addition to taking appropriate measures to curb the spread of infectious diseases in the event of an outbreak, proper prediction and early warning before the outbreak of the threat of infectious diseases can provide an important basis for early and reasonable response by the government health sector, reduce morbidity and mortality, and greatly reduce national losses. However, if only traditional medical data is involved, it may be too late or too difficult to implement prediction and early warning of an infectious outbreak. Recently, medical big data has become a research hotspot and has played an increasingly important role in public health, precision medicine, and disease prediction. In this paper, we focus on exploring a prediction and early warning method for influenza with the help of medical big data. It is well known that meteorological conditions have an influence on influenza outbreaks. So, we try to find a way to determine the early warning threshold value of influenza outbreaks through big data analysis concerning meteorological factors. Results show that, based on analysis of meteorological conditions combined with influenza outbreak history data, the early warning threshold of influenza outbreaks could be established with reasonable high accuracy.
Leptospirosis outbreaks in various parts of the world have been linked to changes in the weather. Furthermore, the effects have been shown to occur at different lags of up to 10 months, affecting the performance of simulation models that predict leptospirosis occurrence. In Malaysia, the link between different weather parameters, at different time lags, has yet to be established despite an increasing number of cases in recent years. In this study, a combination of data mining and machine learning is used to analyze, capture, and predict the relation between leptospirosis occurrence and temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity using the Seremban district in Malaysia as a case study. First, the optimal time lags for rainfall were determined using graphical exploratory data analysis (EDA) while non-graphical EDA was used for temperature. Then, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed to classify the combination of selected features into disease occurrence and non-occurrence using back-propagation training, optimizing the number of hidden layers and hidden nodes. The success is measured using accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of each model. EDA has shown that leptospirosis occurrence in Seremban is highly correlated with weekly average temperature at lag 16 weeks and weekly rainfall amount at lag 12-20 weeks. Using these selected features, the ANN model achieved the highest accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity at 84.00, 86.44, and 79.33%, respectively. Overall, the EDA approach has increased the accuracy of the predictive model by 13.30-31.26% from the baseline models.
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme weather events, such as extended heat waves and droughts in the northern hemisphere. Besides affecting ecosystems worldwide, these changes in climate patterns will also affect the environmental health of human populations. While the medical community is mostly concerned with the negative impact of climate change, there might also be some beneficial effects. In this study we used laboratory data from a large university clinic in Germany (n = 13 406), to test for any detectable impact of two extreme summers on Vitamin-D [25(OH)D] plasma concentrations over a six year period (2014-2019). For the two years with extreme summers (2018 and 2019) the 25(OH)D plasma concentrations were significantly higher than in the previous four years (p < 0.001). A time series analysis (autoregressive term, AR, ? = 0.84, with an AR of one indicating a persistent effect) showed that 25(OH)D concentrations rise by 0.04 nmol/l (95% CI: 0.04-0.05 nmol/l) per hour of sunshine. The incidence of vitamin D deficiency was generally high (60% for 2014-2017) but dropped by 10% in 2018 and 2019. As such, the summers of 2018 and 2019, which are among the hottest and driest in Germany since the start of modern climate recordings, had a measurable positive effect on 25(OH)D plasma levels of the examined population. Given that 25(OH)D deficiency is widespread in higher latitudes, this implies that while mostly considered negative, climate change might also confer some health benefits with regard to vitamin D related medical conditions.
Solar radiation intensity affects both subjective reactions and physiological functions, especially for people who exercise heavily. Field experiments including a questionnaire survey at various ambient temperatures were performed; outdoor activities under shading (irradiance I = 50 +/- 20 W/m(2)) and non-shading (I = 700 +/- 50 W/m(2)) conditions during summer in Xi’an were recorded. The results of questionnaires indicated that when the human body reached an extremely hot state, the corresponding environmental temperature was 3.7 degrees C lower under the non-shading condition, and the range of actual acceptable temperatures was narrower. In terms of thermal sensation, there was a significant difference for people who exercise heavily and those who do not. The results also showed that the curve of fatigue sensation exhibited an inverse Gaussian distribution. Namely, fatigue was promoted under both colder and hotter conditions. Moreover, under non-shading condition, the lowest fatigue incidence was higher, and the corresponding ambient temperature was lower. Changes in objective physiological responses indicated that the solar radiation might cause heat stress. Therefore, when the ambient temperature was higher than 32 degrees C, physiological stress was higher. Under the same exercise load, the blood pressure was higher under the non-shading condition and systolic blood pressure increased with ambient temperature.
People are exposed to multiple stimuli in urban environments, but most studies have investigated the unimodal effect of thermal and visual conditions on human comfort perception. It remains unclear whether the cross-modal effect found in indoor multisensory studies applies to outdoor environments. To understand the cross-modal effect of thermal and visual conditions on outdoor comfort perception, we conducted a thermal comfort survey (n = 4304) in Guangzhou and Zhuhai (September 2018). We used the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) heat stress classification and sky conditions to stratify our results. The thermal sensation vote was positively correlated with sun sensation vote. There was a significant interaction between UTCI heat stress conditions and sunlight preference vote on thermal comfort vote. The sun sensation (brightness) and sunlight preference vote had a cross-modal effect on thermal sensation and thermal comfort vote under various UTCI heat stress conditions. Under extreme heat stress, respondents’ thermal sensation did not differ significantly between different sun sensation and sunlight preference groups. Thermal sensation, preference and comfort vote had a cross-modal effect on sun sensation and sunlight preference under different sky conditions. Under partly cloudy conditions, sun sensation did not differ significantly between certain thermal sensation and preference groups. A theoretical framework is provided to explain the cross-modal effect between thermal and visual perception. Our findings suggest outdoor thermal discomfort can be alleviated by improving visual comfort and vice versa. Therefore, urban design should consider the combined effect of visual-thermal stimulants in optimizing overall pedestrian comfort and promoting urban liveability.
BACKGROUND: Sedentary behavior is a worldwide public health concern. There is consistent and growing evidence linking sedentary behavior to mortality and morbidity. Early monitoring and assessment of environmental factors associated with sedentary behaviors at a young age are important initial steps for understanding children’s sedentary time and identifying pertinent interventions. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the association between daily temperature (maximum, mean, minimum, and diurnal variation) and all-day sedentary time among 4-6 year old children in Mexico City (n = 559) from the year 2013 to 2015. METHODS: We developed a spatiotemporally resolved hybrid satellite-based land use regression temperature model and calculated percent daily sedentary time from aggregating 10-second epoch vertical counts captured by accelerometers that participants wore for one week. We modeled generalized additive models (GAMs), one for each temperature type as a covariate (maximum, mean, minimum, and diurnal variation). All GAMs included percent all-day sedentary time as the outcome and participant-level random intercepts to account for repeated measures of sedentary time. Our models were adjusted for demographic factors and environmental exposures. RESULTS: Daily maximum temperature, mean temperature, and diurnal variation have significant negative linear relationships with all-day sedentary time (p<0.01). There is no significant association between daily minimum temperature and all-day sedentary time. Children have on average 0.26% less daily sedentary time (approximately 2.2 minutes) for each 1°C increase in ambient maximum temperature (range 7.1-30.2°C), 0.27% less daily sedentary time (approximately 2.3 minutes) for each 1°C increase in ambient mean temperature (range 4.3-22.2°C), and 0.23% less daily sedentary time (approximately 2.0 minutes) for each 1°C increase in diurnal variation (range 3.0-21.6°C). CONCLUSIONS: These results are contrary to our hypothesis in which we expected a curvilinear relationship between temperature (maximum, mean, minimum, and diurnal variation) and sedentary time. Our findings suggest that temperature is an important environmental factor that influences children’s sedentary behavior.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Outdoor temperature and bright sunlight may directly and/or indirectly modulate systemic metabolism. We assessed the associations between outdoor temperature and bright sunlight duration with metabolomics. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cross-sectional analyses were undertaken in non-diabetic individuals from the Oxford BioBank (OBB; N = 6368; mean age 47.0 years, males 44%) and the Netherlands Epidemiology of Obesity (NEO; N = 5916; mean age 55.6 years, males 43%) study. Data on mean outdoor bright sunlight and temperature were collected from local weather stations in the week prior to blood sampling. Fasting serum levels of 148 metabolites, including 14 lipoprotein subclasses, were measured using NMR spectroscopy. Linear regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between mean outdoor temperature and bright sunlight duration with metabolomics adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, season and either outdoor temperature or bright sunlight. A higher mean outdoor temperature was associated with increased serum concentrations of lipoprotein (sub)particles (? (SE) = 0.064 (0.018) SD per 5 °C, p = 5.03e(-4)) and certain amino acids such as phenylalanine (0.066 (0.016) SD, p = 6.44e(-05)) and leucine (0.111 (0.018) SD, p = 1.25e(-09)). In contrast, longer duration of bright sunlight was specifically associated with lower concentrations of very low-density lipoprotein (sub)particles (e.g., VLDL cholesterol (-0.024 (0.005) SD per 1-h bright sunlight, p = 8.06e(-6))). The direction of effects was generally consistent between the OBB and NEO, although effect sizes were generally larger in the OBB. CONCLUSIONS: Increased bright sunlight duration is associated with an improved metabolic profile whilst higher outdoor temperature may adversely impact cardiometabolic health.
