2023
Author(s): Gao S, Yang T, Zhang XH, Li GF, Qin YH, Zhang XN, Li J, Yang SM, Yin MH, Zhao JF, Wei NA, Zhao J, Li L, Li H, Yue XZ, Zhang WY, Jia XR, Fan YC, Liu HL
To explore the frequency and effect of extreme temperature on the non-accidental death rate in Hulunbuir, a Chinese ice city.MethodsFrom 2014 to 2018, mortality data of residents residing in Hulunbuir City were collected. The lag and cumulative effects of extreme temperature conditions on non-accidental death and respiratory and circulatory diseases were analyzed by distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).ResultsThe risk of death was the highest during high-temperature conditions, the RR value was 1.111 (95% CI 1.031 similar to 1.198). The effect was severe and acute. The risk of death during extreme low-temperature conditions peaked on the fifth day, (RR 1.057; 95% CI 1.012 similar to 1.112), then decreased and was maintained for 12 days. The cumulative RR value was 1.289 (95% CI 1.045 similar to 1.589). Heat significantly influenced the incidence of non-accidental death in both men (RR 1.187; 95% CI 1.059-1.331) and women (RR 1.252; 95% CI 1.085-1.445).ConclusionsRegardless of the temperature effect, the risk of death in the elderly group (>= 65 years) was significantly higher than that of the young group (0-64 years). High-temperature and low-temperature conditions can contribute to the increased number of deaths in Hulunbei. While high-temperature has an acute effect, low-temperature has a lagging effect. Elderly and women, as well as people with circulatory diseases, are more sensitive to extreme temperatures.
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00420-023-01986-5