2009

Author(s): Salleh KO

The 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on the physical science basis of climate change shows a small increase in temperature (_0.3¡C) and rainfall (_3 %) for the Southeast Asia region in the last decade or so; however, there is a general understanding that the changing behavioural patterns of the El Ni–o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), monsoon, and, to a certain extent, the Indian Dipole Oscillation circulation systems are triggering weather extremes and variability that will influence changing behavioural patterns of hydrometeorological and geomorphological events in many parts of this region. In addition, Malaysia and Southeast Asia are increasingly threatened (directly or indirectly) by low-pressure atmospheric cells that develop in the South Indian Ocean (cyclones) and the Pacific-South China Sea regions (typhoons). The impacts of these changes can still be absorbed by the strong foundations of Malaysia's environmental management programs, backed by stringent economic policies including effective poverty-eradication and food-production programs. However, it must be understood that environmental policies address only the threat of environmental change and not the threat of climate change specifically; in the long term, the impact scenario would generally diverge, and the resilience of Malaysia and the other countries in the region to the threat of climate change would generally decrease while their vulnerability increases. Climate change can be expected to have an especially dramatic impact on low-income economic systems, as such systems are very dependent on ecosystem resources and conditions such as those associated with coastal fishing, rural agriculture, urban commerce, and many forms of rural cottage industries. For Malaysia and many countries of Southeast Asia, this could compromise the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Climate change could also trigger national and international distributional conflicts and intensify problems that are already hard to manage in this region (inter- and intra-regional conflicts).

Journal: Arab World Geographer

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