2009

Author(s): Bi P, Zhang Y, Hiller J, Cameron S

Poster Presentation: Background and Objectives: Food-borne diseases are public health concerns in both developed and developing countries. This paper examines the impact of weather on the transmission of Salmonella, one of the most common food-borne pathogens detected in the Australian population. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on data for the period 1990-2004 for Adelaide, Australia. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average analysis was used for the time-series data, using weekly notifications. A Hockey Stick model was used to detect potential threshold temperatures. Results: The SARIMA model indicated that only maximum temperature (r = 0.08) and minimum temperature (_ = 0.15), were significantly associated with incidence of salmonellosis, with a time lag from zero to two weeks. Other weather variables did not show any significant effect. A potential 1 degree C increase in weekly mean maximum temperatures may bring about 7 percent more Salmonella infections in Adelaide. Thresholds for the effect of both maximum and minimum temperatures (19.5 degrees C and 12.1 degrees C, respectively) were detected. Conclusions: Global warming could increase the likelihood of food-borne infections in Australia. Closer monitoring of temperature variables can prompt relevant infectious disease prevention mechanism, public health interventions can then be empowered to deal with the challenge of future climate change.

View Website