2023

Author(s): Sun Y, Hu T

With its rapid rise in temperatures and accelerated urbanization in recent decades, eastern China may be affected by both global warming and the urban heat island effect. To investigate the influence of anthropogenic forcing and urbanization on extreme temperature, the authors conducted detection and attribution analyses on 16 extreme indices using extended observational data during 1958-2020 and the models that participated in CMIP5 and CMIP6. The extended observational data till 2020 show continued warming in extreme temperatures in recent years. Most of the indices display an increase in warm extremes and decrease in cold extremes. Both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are able to reflect these warming features, albeit the models can over-or underestimate some extreme indices. The two-signal detection with anthropogenic and urbanization effects jointly considered showed that the anthropogenic and urban signals can be simultaneously detected and separated only in two frequency indices, i.e., the frequency of warm and cold nights. The anthropogenic forcing explains about two-thirds of the warming, while URB contributes about one-third for these two indices. For most of the other indices, only the anthropogenic signal can be detected. This indicates that the urban signal is distinct from the natural variability mainly for the nighttime frequency indices but not for the other extreme temperature indies. Given the important influence of nighttime extremes on human health, this suggests an urgent need for cities to adapt to both global warming and urbanization.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100332