2021

Author(s): Gonzales E, Ingol E

In 2017, extreme rainfall events occurred in the northern portion of Peru, causing nearly 100,000 victims, according to the National Emergency Operations Center (COEN). This climatic event was attributed to the occurrence of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine and differentiate between the occurrence of canonical ENSO, with a new type of ENSO called "El Nino Costero" (Coastal El Nino). The polynomial equation method was used to analyze the data from the different types of existing ocean indices to determine the occurrence of ENSO. It was observed that the anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) 2.5 degrees C (January 2016) generated the "Modoki El Nino" and that the anomaly of SST -0.3 degrees C (January 2017) generated the "Modoki La Nina"; this sequential generation generated El Nino Costero. This new knowledge about the sui generis origin of El Nino Costero, based on the observations of this analysis, will allow us to identify and obtain important information regarding the occurrence of this event. A new oceanic index called the Pacific Regional Equatorial Index (PREI) was proposed to follow the periodic evolution and forecast with greater precision a new catastrophic event related to the occurrence of El Nino Costero and to implement prevention programs.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9050071