2022

Author(s): Shi Y, Zhao H, Zhang X

This paper mainly explores the complex impacts of spatial heterogeneity, vector-bias effect, multiple strains, temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and seasonality on malaria transmission. We propose a multi-strain malaria transmission model with diffusion and periodic delays and define the reproduction numbers Ri and R^i (i = 1, 2). Quantitative analysis indicates that the disease-free ω-periodic solution is globally attractive when Ri < 1, while if Ri > 1 > Rj (i ≠ j, i, j = 1, 2), then strain i persists and strain j dies out. More interestingly, when R1 and R2 are greater than 1, the competitive exclusion of the two strains also occurs. Additionally, in a heterogeneous environment, the coexistence conditions of the two strains are R^1 > 1 and R^2 > 1. Numerical simulations verify the analytical results and reveal that ignoring vector-bias effect or seasonality when studying malaria transmission will underestimate the risk of disease transmission.

DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2022.2144648