2023
Author(s): Valois P, Anctil F, Cloutier G, Tessier M, Herpin-Saunier N
The frequency and severity of flooding events are expected to increase with climate change in Canada's province of Quebec. Highly publicized flooding events ravaged the province's water-front communities in 2017 and 2019, with dire health and economic impacts. A recognized com-ponent of integrated flood risk management is the adoption of adaptive behaviors that reduce the vulnerability of exposed households to flooding. A previous study established an index of pre-flood adaptation based on 15 behaviors, using responses of 1951 participants residing within or less than 150 m from officially designated high flood risk zones. 325 of these respondents were successfully recontacted in 2019 for a follow-up survey on their adaptive behaviors, constituting the longitudinal sample used in this study. The new database tracks changes in pre-flood adapta-tion of Quebecers over a span of 4 years and seeks to establish experiential, socio-demographic, and psychosocial variables that predict the preventive behavior adoption rates four years on. Re-sults suggest that there has been no significant increase in the level of adaptive behavior between 2015 and 2019, though households that have experienced a flood or a flood alert in the past are more likely to adapt than those who have not. Furthermore, the most important measures re-ported in 2015 for predicting adoption of behaviors four years on are income, the experience of a flood, and the belief that one lives in a flood-prone zone. Finally, a second stepwise regression in-dicates that a change in flood experience, an increase in perception of the severity of flood im-pacts on one's residence, and adaptation in 2015 are the strongest predictors of adaptation in 2019. Results from this exploratory longitudinal study provide critical information regarding flood adaptive behavior over a long period of time, and its predictors.
DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103782