2021

Author(s): Ohashi Y, Miyata A, Ihara T

We investigated decadal (2010-2019) cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory mortality sensitivity to annual warm temperatures in major Japanese cities: Sapporo, Tokyo (23 wards), and Osaka. The summer mortalities (June-August) increased with the monthly mean temperature for acute myocardial infarction, other acute ischemic heart diseases, cerebral infarction, and pneumonia in the three cities. Monthly mean temperatures were an indicator of these disease mortalities in Japan. However, similar responses were not found for cardiac arrhythmia and heart failure (excluding Sapporo), subarachnoid hemorrhage, and intracerebral hemorrhage. The decadal sensitivities and risk ratios between the maximum and minimum monthly mean temperatures were calculated using a linear regression model. In Sapporo, Tokyo, and Osaka, for example, the analyses of acute myocardial infarction showed summer positive responses of 0.19-0.25, 0.13-0.18, and 0.12-0.30, respectively, as the mortality rate (per 100,000 population) per 1 degrees C of monthly mean temperature, which estimated increased risks (between the coolest and hottest months) of 37-65% in Sapporo, 31-42% in Tokyo, and 35-39% in Osaka.