2008

Author(s): Jacob D, Kotova L, Lorenz P, Moseley C, Pfeifer S

Observational records show that the global climate is changing and these changes are visible in the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC). Certainly negative impacts of climate change will involve significant economic losses in several regions of Europe, while others may bring health or welfare problems somewhere else. Within the EU funded project CLAVIER (Climate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EURope) three representative CEEC are Studied in detail: Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Researchers from 6 countries and different disciplines identify linkages between climate change and its impact on weather patterns with consequences oil air Pollution, extreme events, and water resources. Furthermore, an evaluation of the economic impact on agriculture, tourism, energy supply, and public sector will be conducted, CLAVIER focuses oil ongoing and future climate changes in CEEC using measurements and existing regional scenarios to determine possible developments of the climate and to address related uncertainties. Three regional climate models are used to simulate the climate evolution in CEEC for the period 1951 to 2050, the future regional climate projection being the first half of the 21st century. The issue of climate change uncertainties is addressed through the multi-model and multi-scenario ensemble approach. As a result, CLAVIER establishes a large data base, tools, and methodologies, which contribute to reasonable planning for a successful development of society and economy in CEEC under climate change conditions. Current regional climate projections show a strong warming and drying during the summer months, which seems partly due to a systematic error in model simulations. Detailed validation of the CLAVIER simulations, which goes much beyond this paper, is needed, and the results have to be related to possible climate changes projected for the region in future simulations.

Journal: Idojaras

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