One of the more challenging forecasts in the Tropics is differentiating when/where there will be heavy rains. Are the predicted storms going to be everyday rains or will they be flood-producing deep convection? There are many products we can use to help with identifying deep convection intensity potential, but there are very few that are made specifically for the Tropics. Your satellite analysis skills can take you only so far into the future for deep convection prediction (nowcasting), but what NWP products are available that are specifically designed for deep convection intensity potential in the Tropics? We will explore those here and, using your satellite analysis skills, compare those NWP outputs to what you already understand from satellite imagery. Let’s take the next step in defining better deep convection intensity forecasts.

The following performance components and skills, techniques, and knowledge requirements from the 2018 WMO Guidelines on Satellite Skills and Knowledge for Operational Meteorologists are addressed in this lesson:

• ‭2.2: Identify cumulonimbus clouds, their intensity, organization and stage of development.
• ‭3.1.1: Intertropical convergence zones, monsoon and trade wind regimes.
• ‭3.3.2: Convective environments and areas of instability, convective initiation, inhibition and the breakdown of inhibition.
• ‭5.1.5: Correctly interpret and appropriately integrate total and liquid precipitable water.
• ‭7.4: Use NWP information to enhance the understanding of the features shown in the satellite images.