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Countries | Iraq

WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2021

National Context

Country Background

Located in the East Mediterranean region, Iraq has a land area of about 435 052 km2 and is divided into four main geographical regions: the Mountainous region, the Undulating region, the Desert plateau, and the Sedimentary plain (1). Iraq’s economy depends largely on oil, which accounts for around 60% of its national GDP (2,3). The Iraqi population has significantly increased in recent decades, with the vast majority living in urban areas, which has led to more informal settlements on the outskirts of cities (1).

Iraq’s climate varies between Mediterranean, steppe and warm desert climate (1). As a country located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, Iraq is vulnerable to climate change due to its arid and semi-arid conditions (4). Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns have led to recurrent droughts, desertification and more frequent sand storms (4,5,6). Moreover, climate change exposes countries of the MENA region to sea level rise, particularly those with deltaic areas (Tigris–Euphrates delta) as in Iraq (4). Such climatic changes pose significant health risks, including heat stress, foodborne diseases, waterborne diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition (1).

The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Iraq seeks to mitigate 14% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared with their ‘business as usual’ scenario. Agriculture, water and health are identified as some of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in the NDC (7).

Current and Future Climate Hazards

Climate Hazard Projections for Iraq

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5).

The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green).a The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figuresb also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).c In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of geographically small countries are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for some locations.

Rising temperatures
Figure 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900–2100

Rising temperature

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 5.4°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.6°C.

total precipitation
Figure 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900–2100

Small decrease in total precipitation

Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 10% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-37% to +20%). If emissions decrease rapidly, there is little projected change on average, with an uncertainty range of -10% to +15%.

temperature extremes
Figure 3: Percentage of hot days (‘heat stress’), 1900–2100

More high temperature extremes

The percentage of hot daysd is projected to increase substantially from about 15% of all days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990).

Under a high emissions scenario, about 70% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 30% of days on average are ‘hot’. Similar increases are seen in hot nightsd (not shown).

rainfall
FIgure 4: Contribution of very wet days (‘extreme rainfall’ and ‘flood risk’) to total annual rainfall, 1900–2100

Increase in extreme rainfall

Under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet dayse (about 20% for 1981–2010) could increase by the end-of-century (to almost 30% on average with an uncertainty range of about 10% to 45%), with little change if emissions decrease rapidly. These projected changes are accompanied by a small decrease in total annual rainfall under a high emissions scenario (see Figure 2).

drought
Figure 6: Standardized Precipitation Index (‘drought’), 1900–2100

Drought frequency and intensity

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).f It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

Under a high emissions scenario, SPI12 values are projected to decrease from about -0.2 to -0.5 on average by the end-of-century (2071–2100) indicating an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of dry episodes and an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of drought events. Year-to-year variability remains large with wet episodes continuing to occur into the future.f

Health Risks Due to Climate Change

Health in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Health in the NDCs

  • Ambitious national climate action can have significant health benefits.
  • NDCs can be strengthened by considering health protection and health promotion.
  • National reporting to the UNFCCC and negotiations provide opportunities to link climate and health action.

Health co-benefits of mitigation in NDCs

Health adaptation in NDCs

Implementation for health in NDCs

Total 1997 emissions

72.66 Mt CO2 equivalent (19)

NDC target

Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 14% by 2035, compared with the projected BAU scenario (7)

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey.

Governance and Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? Under Development
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? N/A
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? N/A
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget N/A
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? N/A
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

 

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Evidence and Implementation

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? YES
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change Unknown
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change Unknown
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

 

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 NO Unknown
Vector-borne diseases 22121 NO Unknown
Foodborne diseases 22131 YES YES
Waterborne diseases 22141 YES YES
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 NO
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 NO Unknown
Mental health and well-being 22171 NO Unknown
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

 

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 NO NO NO
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 NO NO NO
Flooding 23141 NO NO NO
Drought 23161 NO NO NO
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171 Unknown Unknown Unknown
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Capacity, Infrastructure and Sustainability

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? Unknown
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? Partially
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? NO
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? Unknown
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector? Unknown
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)

Opportunities for Action

1. DEVELOP A HEALTH NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (HNAP) FOR IRAQ

Iraq is developing a national health and climate change plan/strategy. Develop an HNAP, led by the Ministry of Health, as part of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HNAP is an integrated part of the overall climate change process and can support the mobilization of resources and prioritization of health and climate change policies. See “WHO resources for action” for further details.

2. STRENGTHEN MULTISECTORAL COLLABORATION ON HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE

There are no multisectoral agreements in place on climate change and health. Enhance collaboration between health and health-determining sectors with agreements on climate change and health action (e.g. with transport, energy, water and sanitation, national meteorological and hydrological services sectors, etc.). Promote climate mitigation and adaptation policies that protect and promote health and strengthen health systems.

3. STRENGTHEN INTEGRATED RISK SURVEILLANCE AND HEALTH EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Strengthen the use of meteorological information to inform risk surveillance of all climate-sensitive diseases. The use of climate/weather information can be integrated into health surveillance systems and used to predict outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases (i.e. climate-informed health early warning systems) to help ensure a preventive approach to specific climate-sensitive health programmes.

4. BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE HEALTH CARE FACILITIES

Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health care facilities and health service provision while decreasing the climate and environmental footprint of health care facilities. A commitment towards climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable health care facilities can improve system stability, promote a healing environment and mitigate climate change impacts.

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