Dr Roché Mahon | rmahon@cimh.edu.bb
Jamaica is the third largest island in the Caribbean Sea, with a total land mass of 10 991 km2. The country is mountainous and about a third of its land area is covered by forests and around 40% is agricultural land (1). However, deforestation rates are high in Jamaica (2). The climate is tropical and the hurricane season runs from June to November (1,2). The hurricane season includes the longer of two rainy seasons of Jamaica’s climate defined as August to November (3).
Jamaica is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In particular, it is likely to be affected by increased temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and extreme weather events (especially hurricanes, flooding and drought). Both its natural resources and economic development are threatened by climate change (4). This has direct and indirect effects on human health, including economic insecurity, spread of vector-borne, waterborne and foodborne diseases, water and food insecurity, and death and injury from extreme weather events.
Through its 2015 Climate Change Policy Framework, Jamaica is working to mainstream climate change activities and help build capacity across sectors to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies (1). The government of Jamaica has also published its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Human health is identified as a particularly important sector in Jamaica’s NDC, both in terms of adaptation and impacts. Indeed, human health is one of the main sectors listed as a priority for the development of climate change strategies and action plans (4). The NDC was further updated in July 2020 with more ambitious targets.
Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5). The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green). 1 1Model projections are from CMIP5 for RCP8.5 (high emissions) and RCP2.6 (low emissions). Model anomalies are added to the historical mean and smoothed.
The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figures 2 2Analysis by the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 2018. also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).3 3Observed historical record of mean temperature is from CRU-TSv3.26 and total precipitation is from GPCC. Observed historical records of extremes are from JRA55 for temperature and from GPCC-FDD for precipitation. In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.
Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of small island States are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for such locations.
Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 3°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1°C.
Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 13% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-40% to +10%). If emissions decrease rapidly, there is little projected change on average: an increase of 2% with an uncertainty range of -8% to +13%.
The percentage of hot days4 4A ‘hot day’ (‘hot night’) is a day when maximum (minimum) temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold for that time of the year. is projected to increase substantially from about 10% of all observed days on average in 1981–2010. Under a high emissions scenario, almost 100% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 85% of days on average are ‘hot’. Note that the models overestimate the observed increase in hot days (about 30% of days on average in 1981–2010 rather than 10%). Similar increases are seen in hot nights (not shown).
The proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet days5 5The proportion (%) of annual rainfall totals that falls during very wet days, defined as days that are at least as wet as the historically 5% wettest of all days (about 30% for 1981–2010) shows little change on average by the end-of-century although the uncertainty range is somewhat larger particularly under a high emissions scenario (about 5% to almost 50%). Total annual rainfall is projected to decrease under a high emissions scenario (see Figure 2).
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).6 6SPI is unitless but can be used to categorize different severities of drought (wet): above +2.0 extremely wet; +2.0 to +1.5 severely wet; +1.5 to +1.0 moderately wet; +1.0 to +0.5 slightly wet; +0.5 to -0.5 near normal conditions; -0.5 to -1.0 slight drought; -1.0 to -1.5 moderate drought; -1.5 to -2.0 severe drought; below -2.0 extreme drought. It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.
SPI12 values show little projected change from an average of about -0.5, indicating little change on average in the frequency and/or intensity of wet episodes and drought events. Year-to-year variability remains large with both wet and dry episodes of varying intensity continuing to occur into the future.
It is anticipated that the total number of tropical cyclones may decrease towards the end of the century. However, it is likely that human-induced warming will make cyclones more intense (an increase in wind speed of 2–11% for a mid-range scenario (i.e., RCP4.5 which lies between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 – shown on pages 4–5) or about 5% for 2ºC global warming). Projections suggest that the most intense events (category 4 and 5) will become more frequent (although these projections are particularly sensitive to the spatial resolution of the models). It is also likely that average precipitation rates within 100 km of the storm centre will increase – by a maximum of about 10% per degree of warming. Such increases in rainfall rate would be exacerbated if tropical cyclone translation speeds continue to slow (6–13).7 7Information and understanding about tropical cyclones (including hurricane and typhoons) from observations, theory and climate models have improved in the past few years. It is difficult to make robust projections for specific ocean basins or for changes in storm tracks. Presented here is a synthesis of the expected changes at the global scale.
Sea level rise is one of the most significant threats to low-lying areas on small islands and atolls. Research indicates that rates of global mean sea level rise are almost certainly accelerating as a result of climate change.
The average change in Caribbean sea level over the period 1993–2010 (14) is projected at 1.7 mm/year (± 1.3), with substantial spatial variability across the region. A further 0.5–0.6m rise is expected in the Caribbean by the end of the century (15) with variation amongst models and emissions scenarios.
The relatively long response times to global warming mean that sea level will continue to rise for a considerable time after any reduction in emissions.
Potential impacts of sea level rise include:
Some of the world’s most virulent infections are also highly sensitive to climate: temperature, precipitation and humidity have a strong influence on the life-cycles of the vectors and the infectious agents they carry and influence the transmission of water- and foodborne diseases (16,17).
Small island developing States (SIDS) are vulnerable to disease outbreaks. Climate change could affect the seasonality of such outbreaks, as well as the transmission of vector-borne diseases. The country experienced a severe dengue outbreak in 2019 that required activation of the national disaster mechanism to gain control (18). Figure 6 presents modelled estimates for Jamaica of the potential risk of dengue fever transmission under high and low emission scenarios.8 8A suite of mathematical models was systematically developed, then applied and interpreted by a team of researchers at Umeå University (Sweden)
to assess the potential for mosquito-borne disease outbreaks (e.g. dengue, chikungunya, Zika and malaria) in terms of climate-dependent VC.
The baseline year is 2015, Climatic Research Unit CRU-TSv4.01. Future projections are represented for two emissions futures (Representative
Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP8.5), five climate change projections (Global Climate Models: gfdlesm2m, hadgem2-es, ipsl-cm5a-lr, mirocesm-chem, noresm1-m). (2018) Umeå University, Sweden. The seasonality and prevalence of dengue transmission may change with future climate change, but Jamaica is consistently highly suitable for dengue transmission under all scenarios and thus vulnerable to outbreaks (19–22).9 9Given the climate dependence of transmission cycles of many vector-borne diseases, seasonality of epidemic risk is common; however, many SIDS, due to tropical latitudes, tend to have less seasonality than more temperate areas.10 10The actual occurrences/severity of epidemics would be quite different for each disease in each setting and could depend greatly on vector- and host-related transmission dynamics, prevention, surveillance and response capacities that are not captured in this model.
Small island developing States (SIDS) face distinct challenges that render them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change on food and nutrition security including: small, and widely dispersed, land masses and population; large rural populations; fragile natural environments and lack of arable land; high vulnerability to climate change, external economic shocks, and natural disasters; high dependence on food imports; dependence on a limited number of economic sectors; and distance from global markets. The majority of SIDS also face a “triple-burden” of malnutrition whereby undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies and overweight and obesity exist simultaneously within a population alongside increasing rates of diet-related NCDs.
Climate change is likely to exacerbate the triple-burden of malnutrition and the metabolic and lifestyle risk factors for diet-related NCDs. It is expected to reduce short- and long-term food and nutrition security both directly, through its effects on agriculture and fisheries, and indirectly, by contributing to underlying risk factors such as water insecurity, dependency on imported foods, urbanization and migration and health service disruption. These impacts represent a significant health risk for SIDS, with their particular susceptibility to climate change impacts and already over-burdened health systems, and this risk is distributed unevenly, with some population groups experiencing greater vulnerability.
The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey (36).
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? | Under Development | ||
| Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? | N/A | ||
| Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? | N/A | ||
| Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget | N/A | ||
| Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? | N/A |
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Transportation | NO | |
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Electricity generation | NO | |
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Household energy | NO | |
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Agriculture | NO | |
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Social services | NO | |
| Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? | Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management | NO |
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? | IN PROGRESS | ||
| → Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change | N/A | ||
| → Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change | N/A |
| Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes | qid | Health surveillance system is in place (a) | Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) | 22111 | NO | N/A |
| Vector-borne diseases | 22121 | YES | NO |
| Foodborne diseases | 22131 | YES | NO |
| Waterborne diseases | 22141 | YES | NO |
| Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) | 22151 | YES | |
| Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) | 22161 | YES | NO |
| Mental health and well-being | 22171 | YES | NO |
| Airborne and respiratory diseases | 22181 | YES |
| Climate hazard | qid | Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? | Health sector response plan in place? | Health sector response plan includes meteorological information? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat waves | 23111 | NO | NO | N/A |
| Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) | 23131 | YES | YES | YES |
| Flooding | 23141 | YES | YES | YES |
| Drought | 23161 | YES | YES | YES |
| Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) | 23171 |
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? | NO | ||
| Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? | Partially |
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? | |||
| Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? | |||
| Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector? |
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work? | YES |
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds
| Question | questioncategory | question | Answer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Lack of information on the opportunities | YES | |
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Lack of country eligibility | ||
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes | YES | |
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals | YES | |
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Lack of success in submitted applications | ||
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | None (no challenges/challenges were minimal) | ||
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Not applicable | ||
| Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds | Other (please specify) |
Complete the development and implementation of the national health and climate change plan currently under way. Ensuring that adaptation priorities are specified, health co-benefits from mitigation and adaptation measures are considered, necessary budget requirements are allocated and regular monitoring and review of progress will support its full implementation.
Conduct a national assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation for health. Ensure that results of the assessment are used for policy prioritization and the allocation of human and financial resources in the health sector.
Ensure that meteorological information is used to inform early warning systems. Jamaica is expected to be affected by a range of health threats due to climate change, including thermal stress, nutrition challenges, and mental health and well-being issues, which should also be captured by risk surveillance and early warning systems.
The main barriers have been identified as a lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes and a lack of capacity to prepare country proposals or advance recommended actions.
Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health service provision, including – conducting hazard assessments, climate-informed planning and costing, strengthening structural safety, contingency planning for essential systems (electricity, heating, cooling, ventilation, water supply, sanitation services, waste management and communications). A commitment towards low-emission, sustainable practices to improve system stability, promote a healing environment and to mitigate climate change impacts can also be taken.
WHO/HEP/ECH/CCH/21.01.04
© World Health Organization and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2021
Some rights reserved. This work is available under the CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO licence
All reasonable precautions have been taken by WHO and UNFCCC to verify the information contained in this publication. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. The responsibility for the interpretation and use of the material lies with the reader. In no event shall WHO and UNFCCC be liable for damages arising from its use.
Most estimates and projections provided in this document have been derived using standard categories and methods to enhance their cross-national comparability. As a result, they should not be regarded as the nationally endorsed statistics of Member States which may have been derived using alternative methodologies. Published official national statistics, if presented, are cited and included in the reference list.
Design by Inís Communication from a concept by N. Duncan Mills
Photos: Dr Valeska Stempliuk
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