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WHO/UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile
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WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2021

National Context

Country Background

Located on the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea, Lebanon’s territory is mostly mountainous with a land area of 10 452 km2 and a coastline of 225 km (1). The economy is dependent upon the service sector, which contributes 45% of the national GDP (2). While the agricultural sector accounts for only around 5% of GDP, agriculture has been impacted by higher world food prices and climate change, which could have significant implications for food security in Lebanon (2,3). Around 90% of Lebanon’s population lives in urban areas, especially in the big cities along the coast (1).

Lebanon’s climate is predominantly Mediterranean, with hot and dry summers from June to September and cool and rainy winters from December to March (1). Due to arid and semi-arid conditions, water resources are scarce and vulnerable to the effects of climate change and consequential changes in precipitation patterns (4). This threatens the agricultural sector, which is also pressured by population growth and urbanization (5). Further, climate change is expected to result in less snow, increased droughts, sea level rise and forest fires. Higher temperatures and frequent extreme events, such as droughts and floods, could lead to health risks such as infectious diseases, increased morbidity and mortality from heat stress, waterborne and vector-borne diseases (1). Encroaching seas are projected to expand seawater incursions into coastal freshwater aquifers and reduce the supply of freshwater for local use. Additionally, higher storm surges could increase damage to low-lying infrastructure and communities, and higher temperatures and reductions in annual precipitation could result in a hotter and drier climate, potentially diminishing future supplies of surface water.

Lebanon updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in 2020, increasing its previous mitigation ambitions. The NDC commits unconditionally to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, compared with the business-as-usual scenario, by 2030. Climate change is recognized as a threat multiplier in the NDC, which outlines numerous adaptation strategies, including implementing climate-resilient systems to ensure and protect public health, well-being and safety of all communities in Lebanon (4).

Current and Future Climate Hazards

Climate Hazard Projections for Lebanon

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ (BAU) high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5).

The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green).a The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figuresb also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).c In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of geographically small countries are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for some locations.

Rising temperatures
Figure 1: Mean Annual Temperature, 1900-2100

Rising temperature

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 4.3°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.3°C.

Total precipitation
Figure 2: Total Annual Precipitation, 1900-2100

Decrease in total precipitation

Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 25% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-37% to -9%). If emissions decrease rapidly, there is little projected change on average: with a decrease of 3% and an uncertainty range of -17% to +4%.

temperature extremes
Figure 3: Percentage of hot days ('heat stress'), 1900-2100

More high temperature extremes

The percentage of hot daysd is projected to increase substantially from about 15% of all days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990).
Under a high emissions scenario, about 65% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 30% of days on average are ‘hot’. Similar increases are seen in hot nightsd (not shown).

rainfall
Figure 4: Contribution of very wet days ('extreme rainfall' and 'flood risk') to total annual rainfall, 1900-2100

Small increase in extreme rainfall

Under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet dayse (about 20% for 1981–2010) could increase slightly by the end-of-century (to about 23% on average with an uncertainty range of about 5% to 40%), with even less change if emissions decrease rapidly.
These projected changes are accompanied by decreases in total annual rainfall (see Figure 2).

drought
Figure 5: Standardized Precipitation Index (Drought), 1900-2100

Drought frequency and intensity

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).f It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

Under a high emissions scenario, SPI12 values are projected to decrease from about -0.3 to -1 on average by the end-of-century (2071–2100) indicating an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of dry episodes and drought events. If emissions decrease rapidly there is little change although year-to-year variability remains large.f

Health Risks Due to Climate Change

Health in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Health in the NDCs

  • Ambitious national climate action can have significant health benefits.
  • NDCs can be strengthened by considering health protection and health promotion.
  • National reporting to the UNFCCC and negotiations provide opportunities to link climate and health action.

Health co-benefits of mitigation in NDCs

Health adaptation in NDCs

Implementation for health in NDCs

Total 2013 emissions

26.13 Mt CO2 equivalent (21)

NDC target

An unconditional target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2030, compared with the projected BAU scenario, and a conditional target to increase this reduction to 31% (4)

Opportunities for Action

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey.

Governance and Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? NO
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? N/A
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? N/A
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget N/A
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? N/A
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

 

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Evidence and Implementation

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? NO
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change N/A
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change N/A
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

 

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 YES NO
Vector-borne diseases 22121 YES YES
Foodborne diseases 22131 YES NO
Waterborne diseases 22141 YES NO
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 YES
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 NO NO
Mental health and well-being 22171 NO NO
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

 

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 NO Unknown Unknown
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 Unknown Unknown Unknown
Flooding 23141 NO Unknown Unknown
Drought 23161 NO Unknown Unknown
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171 NO Unknown Unknown
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Capacity, Infrastructure and Sustainability

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? NO
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? NO
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology? Unknown
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector? YES
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

 

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)

1. COMPLETE AND IMPLEMENT THE HEALTH AND CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGY/PLAN CURRENTLY UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR LEBANON

Complete the development of the national health and climate change plan. Assess barriers to implementation of the plan/strategy (e.g. governance, evidence, monitoring and evaluation, finance). Implementation can be supported by exploring additional opportunities to access funds for health and climate change priorities (e.g. GCF readiness proposal). See “WHO resources for action” for further details.

2. STRENGTHEN INTEGRATED RISK SURVEILLANCE AND HEALTH EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Meteorological information is not currently used to inform risk surveillance of climate-sensitive diseases. The use of climate/weather information can be integrated into health surveillance systems and used to predict outbreaks of climate-sensitive diseases (i.e. climate-informed health early warning systems) to help ensure a preventive approach to specific climate-sensitive health programmes.

3. ASSESS THE HEALTH CO-BENEFITS OF NATIONAL CLIMATE MITIGATION POLICIES

Health co-benefits of mitigation are currently not included in Lebanon’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Ensure that climate mitigation policies include the health risks posed from climate change, identify health adaptation priorities and measure and optimize the health co-benefits of climate mitigation action.

4. BUILD CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE HEALTH CARE FACILITIES

Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health care facilities and health service provision while decreasing the climate and environmental footprint of health care facilities. A commitment towards climate-resilient, environmentally sustainable health care facilities can improve system stability, promote a healing environment and mitigate climate change impacts.

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