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Countries | Guyana

WMO Integrated Health Focal Points

Dr Roché Mahon   ​

WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2020

National Context

Country Background

Guyana, the only English-speaking country in the north eastern corner of the South American continent, has four distinct geographical areas, including the low coastal belt that is 1 metre to 1.5 metre below mean high tide level (1).

Temperatures in Guyana vary geographically with high altitude regions experiencing cooler temperatures than the coastal, lowland, and savannah zones. Mean air temperatures in the upland regions and the interior (west) side of the country are between 20°C to 23°C and from 25°C to 27.5°C across the rest of the country (1).

Guyana’s precipitation pattern is influenced primarily by the seasonal shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), however, on an inter-annual and decadal basis, the country experiences the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Coastal areas are dominated by a ‘tropical wet’ marine climate where mean annual precipitation is greater than 2000 mm/year, while the savannah experiences mostly a drier ‘tropical wet-dry’ climate with mean precipitation of 1400–1800 mm/year (2).

Guyana is vulnerable to climate change and already experiences severe floods and droughts. Other impacts include sea level rise, changing precipitation patterns, increased temperatures, and extreme weather events that pose risks to human health, through the spread of vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, food and economic insecurity, and saltwater intrusion of aquifers.

The Guyana Government has demonstrated unequivocal commitment to global efforts in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Notable initiatives include the Low Carbon Development Strategy in 2009 (3), the Green State Development Strategy (2017), the Guyana Climate Change Policy and Action Plan (Draft) 2019 (4), and the National Adaptation Plan (Draft, 2019) – all of which will provide the point of reference for Guyana to build resilience to climate change, adapt to the health effects of climate change, and maximize the health co-benefits available through climate mitigation and adaptation.

Highest Priority Climate Sensitive Health Risks

Climate Hazards Relevant for Health

Climate Hazard Projections for Guyana

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5). The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green). 1 1Model projections are from CMIP5 for RCP8.5 (high emissions) and RCP2.6 (low emissions). Model anomalies are added to the historical mean and smoothed.

The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figures 2 2Analysis by the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 2018. also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).3 3Observed historical record of mean temperature is from CRU-TSv3.26 and total precipitation is from GPCC. Observed historical records of extremes are from JRA55 for temperature and from GPCC-FDD for precipitation. In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of small island States are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for such locations.

FIGURE 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900–2100

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 4.1ºC on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.3ºC. 

FIGURE 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900–2100

Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 15% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-48% to +9%). If emissions decrease rapidly there is little projected change on average: with a decrease of 4% and an uncertainty range of -18% to +5%.

FIGURE 3: Percentage of hot days (‘heat stress’), 1900–2100

The percentage of hot days4 4A ‘hot day’ (‘hot night’) is a day when maximum (minimum) temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold for that time of the year. is projected to increase substantially from about 15% of all observed days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990). Under a high emissions scenario, almost 90% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 55% of days on average are ‘hot’. Note that the models overestimate the observed increase in hot days (about 20% on average in 1981–2010 rather than 15%). Similar increases are seen in hot nights (not shown).

FIGURE 4: Contribution of very wet days (‘extreme rainfall’ and ‘flood risk’) to total annual rainfall, 1900–2100

Under a high emissions scenario, the proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet days5 5The proportion (%) of annual rainfall totals that falls during very wet days, defined as days that are at least as wet as the historically 5% wettest of all days (about 26% for 1981–2010) could increase by the end of- century (to around 33% on average with an uncertainty range of about 15% to 55%), with less change if emissions decrease rapidly. Total annual rainfall is projected to decrease (see Figure 2).

FIGURE 5: Standardized Precipitation Index (‘drought’), 1900–2100

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).6 6SPI is unitless but can be used to categorize different severities of drought (wet): above +2.0 extremely wet; +2.0 to +1.5 severely wet; +1.5 to +1.0 moderately wet; +1.0 to +0.5 slightly wet; +0.5 to -0.5 near normal conditions; -0.5 to -1.0 slight drought; -1.0 to -1.5 moderate drought; -1.5 to -2.0 severe drought; below -2.0 extreme drought. It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

Under a high emissions scenario, SPI12 values are projected to decrease to about -0.6 on average by the end of the century (2071–2100), with a number of models indicating substantially larger decreases and hence more frequent and/or intense drought. Year-to-year variability remains large with wet episodes continuing to occur into the future.

Sea level rise

From 1951 to 1979, sea level off Guyana rose at a rate some five times the global average (0.4 inch, or 10.2 millimetres per year), around six times the twentieth century average or three times the 1993 to 2009 annual average (6).

Guyana is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise stemming from climate change, plus regional shifts in the height of the sea. The Guyana initial National Communication to the UNFCCC (2002) states that the mean sea level along the Atlantic coast of Guyana is projected to rise by about 40 cm by the end of the twenty-first century, that is, at a rate 2–4 mm per year. Moreover, the contribution of meltwater from land ice would increase the rate of sea level to approximately 60 cm by the end of the next century (6).

According to the Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Report (draft, Office of Climate Change, 2019): calibration and assembly of global estimation of sea level rise carried out by a continuous series of satellite altimeter sea level measurements from the T/P, Jason-1, and Jason-2 reveal that sea level has been rising over the past 17 years at a mean rate of 3.4 ± 0.4 mm per year after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) (7). The report further states that there is considerable interannual variation due to ENSO processes, so the rate average over any individual four-year period can be significantly different.

Potential impacts of sea level rise include:

  • Coastal erosion
  • Ecosystem disruption
  • Higher storm surges
  • Population displacement
  • Water contamination and disruption
  • Mental health

Health Impacts of Climate Change

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey (30).

Governance And Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? Under Development
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? PRESENTLY UNDER CONSIDERATION
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan? IN PILOT PHASE (THROUGH SMART HOSPITALS)
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget BUDGET HAS NOT BEEN PREPARED AS OF YET
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? HEALTH ADAPTATION PLAN
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture YES
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? YES
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change STRONGLY
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change SOMEWHAT
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 NO NO
Vector-borne diseases 22121 NO NO
Foodborne diseases 22131 NO NO
Waterborne diseases 22141 NO NO
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 NO
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 NO NO
Mental health and well-being 22171 NO NO
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 NO NO NO
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 N/A N/A N/A
Flooding 23141 YES YES YES
Drought 23161 YES YES YES
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? NO
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? Partially
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology?
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology?
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work? YES
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes YES
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals YES
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Opportunities for Action

Institutionalize Climate Change in the Ministry of Health and Medical Services Organizational Structure

Create a division within the Ministry of Health and Medical Services with existing supportive legislation to include climate change and health as a core function, to oversee the implementation of the Solomon Islands National Climate Change and Health Adaptation Plan 2011 and to strengthen the weak collaboration within the health sector and with other sectors. Relevant climate change and health activities to be streamlined into respective department’s annual operational plan where relevant.

Complete and Implement a Health and Climate Change Strategy/Plan for Guyana

Complete the development and implementation of a national health and climate change plan in alignment with the Guyana National Climate Change Policy and Action Plan (2019) and National Adaptation Plan (2019), ensuring that adaptation priorities are specified, health co-benefits from mitigation and adaptation measures are considered, necessary budget requirements are allocated and regular monitoring and review of progress will support its full implementation.

Strengthen Integrated Risk Surveillance and Early Warning Systems

Develop systems that facilitate collection of data on climate-sensitive diseases and utilize meteorological information to inform early warning systems. Guyana is expected to be affected by a range of health threats due to climate change, including thermal stress, vector-borne, waterborne and foodborne diseases, and mental health and well-being issues, which should also be captured by risk surveillance and early warning systems.

Address Barriers to Accessing International Climate Change Finance to Support Health Adaptation

Identify and address the main barriers (lack of connection by health actors with climate change processes and a lack of capacity to prepare country proposals) in an effort to access international climate change finance to support adaptation in the health sector.

Build Climate-resilient Health Care Facilities

Implement measures to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health service provision, including the following: conducting hazard assessments, climate-informed planning and costing, strengthening structural safety, contingency planning for essential systems (electricity, heating, cooling, ventilation, water supply, sanitation services, waste management and communications). Additionally, promote and support low-emission, sustainable practices to improve system stability, promote a healing environment and to mitigate climate change impacts in keeping with the strategic objective of the Guyana Green State Development Strategy.

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