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Countries | Trinidad and Tobago

WHO / UNFCCC Climate & Health Profile 2020

National Context

Country Background

Trinidad and Tobago is a Caribbean nation, located between the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Over 95% of the population lives on Trinidad, the larger of the two islands. Trinidad and Tobago has two distinct seasons: a dry, tropical maritime season (January to May) and a moist equatorial season (June to December). Most precipitation occurs during the moist equatorial climatic season (1). The island is relatively low-lying, with the highest peak reaching 83m above sea level. Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is largely dependent upon energy production; oil and gas make up approximately 40% of the country’s GDP and 80% of its exports (2).

As a low-lying SIDS, Trinidad and Tobago is vulnerable to climatic changes, particularly sea level rise. Other risks posed by climate change include increasing temperature, extreme weather events, and changing precipitation patterns. For human health specifically, threats include food and water insecurity, spread of water and vector-borne diseases, population displacement and heat stress.

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and implement adaptations though a pathways approach that assesses climate risks manifested by climatic variability, climatic extremes and long-term change. Trinidad and Tobago’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) highlights the importance of health co-benefits that will result from climate resilience, including decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing vulnerability to climate change across sectors (3). Furthermore, its Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) Report assessed current and future direct and indirect health risks, vulnerability, and recommended adaptation measures (4).

Highest Priority Climate Sensitive Health Risks

Climate Hazards Relevant for Health

Climate Hazard Projections for Trinidad and Tobago

Country-specific projections are outlined up to the year 2100 for climate hazards under a ‘business as usual’ high emissions scenario compared to projections under a ‘two-degree’ scenario with rapidly decreasing global emissions (see Figures 1–5). The climate model projections given below present climate hazards under a high emissions scenario, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5 – in orange) and a low emissions scenario (RCP2.6 – in green). 1 1Model projections are from CMIP5 for RCP8.5 (high emissions) and RCP2.6 (low emissions). Model anomalies are added to the historical mean and smoothed.

The text describes the projected changes averaged across about 20 global climate models (thick line). The figures 2 2Analysis by the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 2018. also show each model individually as well as the 90% model range (shaded) as a measure of uncertainty and the annual and smoothed observed record (in blue).3 3Observed historical record of mean temperature is from CRU-TSv3.26 and total precipitation is from GPCC. Observed historical records of extremes are from JRA55 for temperature and from GPCC-FDD for precipitation. In the following text the present-day baseline refers to the 30-year average for 1981–2010 and the end-of-century refers to the 30-year average for 2071–2100.

Modelling uncertainties associated with the relatively coarse spatial scale of the models compared with that of small island States are not explicitly represented. There are also issues associated with the availability and representativeness of observed data for such locations.

FIGURE 1: Mean annual temperature, 1900–2100

Under a high emissions scenario, the mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 3.1°C on average by the end-of-century (i.e. 2071–2100 compared with 1981–2010). If emissions decrease rapidly, the temperature rise is limited to about 1.0°C.

FIGURE 2: Total annual precipitation, 1900–2100

Total annual precipitation is projected to decrease by about 27% on average under a high emissions scenario, although the uncertainty range is large (-53% to +3%). If emissions decrease rapidly there is little projected change on average: a decrease of 6% with an uncertainty range of -23% to +7%. 

FIGURE 3: Percentage of hot days (‘heat stress’), 1900–2100

The percentage of hot days4 4A ‘hot day’ (‘hot night’) is a day when maximum (minimum) temperature exceeds the 90th percentile threshold for that time of the year. is projected to increase substantially from about 15% of all observed days on average in 1981–2010 (10% in 1961–1990). Under a high emissions scenario, almost 100% of days on average are defined as ‘hot’ by the end-of-century. If emissions decrease rapidly, about 80% of days on average are ‘hot’. Note that the models overestimate the observed increase in hot days (about 28% of days on average in 1981–2010 rather than 15%). Similar increases are seen in hot nights (not shown).

FIGURE 4: Contribution of very wet days (‘extreme rainfall’ and ‘flood risk’) to total annual rainfall, 1900–2100

The proportion of total annual rainfall from very wet days5 5The proportion (%) of annual rainfall totals that falls during very wet days, defined as days that are at least as wet as the historically 5% wettest of all days (about 25% for 1981–2010) shows little change on average by the end-of-century, although the uncertainty range is larger (about 5% to 40% under a high emissions scenario). Total annual rainfall is projected to decrease (see Figure 2).

FIGURE 5: Standardized Precipitation Index (‘drought’), 1900–2100

The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a widely used drought index which expresses rainfall deficits/excesses over timescales ranging from 1 to 36 months (here 12 months, i.e. SPI12).6 6SPI is unitless but can be used to categorize different severities of drought (wet): above +2.0 extremely wet; +2.0 to +1.5 severely wet; +1.5 to +1.0 moderately wet; +1.0 to +0.5 slightly wet; +0.5 to -0.5 near normal conditions; -0.5 to -1.0 slight drought; -1.0 to -1.5 moderate drought; -1.5 to -2.0 severe drought; below -2.0 extreme drought. It shows how at the same time extremely dry and extremely wet conditions, relative to the average local conditions, change in frequency and/or intensity.

Under a high emissions scenario, SPI12 values are projected to decrease to about -0.8 on average by the end of the century (2071–2100), with a number of models indicating substantially larger decreases and hence more frequent and/or intense drought. Year-to-year variability remains large with wet episodes continuing to occur into the future.

Tropical cyclones

Information and understanding about tropical cyclones (including hurricane and typhoons) from observations, theory and climate models has improved in the past few years (6–13). Despite this, robust projections for specific ocean basins or for changes in storm tracks are difficult.

It is anticipated that the total number of tropical cyclones may decrease towards the end of the century. However, it is likely that human-induced warming will make cyclones more intense (an increase in wind speed of 2–11% for a mid-range scenario (i.e. RCP4.5 which lies between RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 – shown on pages 4/5) or about 5% for 2˚C global warming). Projections suggest that the most intense events (category 4 and 5) will become more frequent (although such projections are particularly sensitive to the spatial resolution of the models). It is also likely that average precipitation rates within 100 km of the storm centre will increase – by a maximum of about 10% per degree of warming. Such increases in rainfall rate would be exacerbated if tropical cyclone translation speeds continue to slow.

Sea level rise

Sea level rise is one of the most significant threats to low-lying areas on small islands and atolls. Research indicates that rates of global mean sea level rise are almost certainly accelerating as a result of climate change.

The average change in Caribbean sea level over the period 1993–2010 (14) is projected at 1.7 mm/year (± 1.3), with substantial spatial variability across the region. A further 0.5–0.6m rise is expected in the Caribbean by the end of the century (15) with variation amongst models and emissions scenarios.

The relatively long response times to global warming mean that sea level will continue to rise for a considerable time after any reduction in emissions.

Potential impacts of sea level rise include:

  • Coastal erosion
  • Ecosystem disruption
  • Higher storm surges
  • Population displacement
  • Water contamination and disruption
  • Mental health

Health Impacts of Climate Change

National Response

Health System Capacity and Adaptation: Monitoring Progress

The following section measures progress in the health sector in responding to climate threats based on country reported data collected in the 2021 WHO Health and Climate Change Country Survey (35).

Governance And Leadership

National Planning for Health and Climate Change

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has a national health and climate change strategy or plan been developed ? NO
Are the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation action considered in the strategy/plan? N/A
Level of implementation of the strategy/plan?
Portion of estimated costs to implement the strategy/plan covered in the health budget N/A
Are health adaptation priorities identified in the strategy/plan? N/A
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A).
Definition: In this context, a national strategy or plan is a broad term that includes national health and climate strategies as well as the health component of national adaptation plans (H-NAPs).

Intersectoral Collaboration to Address Climate Change

Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy?

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Transportation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Electricity generation NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Household energy NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Agriculture NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Social services NO
Is there an agreement in place between the ministry of health and this sector which defines specific roles and responsibilities in relation to links between health and climate change policy? Water, Sanitation & Waste-water management NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Yes = Specific roles and responsibilities between the national health authority and the sector indicated are defined in the agreement.

Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Health

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has an assessment of health vulnerability and impacts of climate change been conducted at a national level? YES
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on policy prioritization to address the health risks of climate change Unknown
→ Level of influence of the assessment findings on human and financial resource allocation to address the health risks of climate change Unknown
Notes
Table Legend:
Question 1: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
Questions 2 and 3: None, Minimal, Somewhat, Strong

Climate-sensitive diseases and health outcomes qid Health surveillance system is in place (a) Health surveillance system includes meteorological information (b)
Thermal stress (e.g. heat waves) 22111 YES YES
Vector-borne diseases 22121 YES YES
Foodborne diseases 22131 YES YES
Waterborne diseases 22141 YES YES
Nutrition (e.g. malnutrition associated with extreme-climatic events) 22151 Unknown
Injuries (e.g. physical injuries or drowning in extreme weather events) 22161 Unknown Unknown
Mental health and well-being 22171 Unknown Unknown
Airborne and respiratory diseases 22181 YES
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)
(a) A positive response indicates that the health surveillance system is in place, it will identify changing health risks or impacts AND it will trigger early action.
(b) Meteorological information refers to either short-term weather information, seasonal climate information OR long-term climate information

Climate hazard qid Health early warning system (HEWS) in place? Health sector response plan in place? Health sector response plan includes meteorological information?
Heat waves 23111 YES YES YES
Storms (e.g. hurricanes, monsoons, typhoons) 23131 YES YES YES
Flooding 23141 YES YES YES
Drought 23161 YES YES YES
Air quality (e.g. particulate matter, ozone levels) 23171
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Human Resource Capacity

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is there a national curriculum developed to train health personnel on the health impacts of climate change? NO
Does your human resource capacity as measured through the International Health Regulations Monitoring Framework (IHR) adequately consider the human resource requirements to respond to climate-related events? NO
Notes
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Health Care Facilities, Infrastructure and Technology

Question questioncategory question Answer
Has there been a national assessment of the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology?
Have measures been taken to increase the climate resilience of health infrastructure and technology?
Is there a national initiative/programme in place to promote the use of low-carbon, energy-efficient, sustainable technologies in the health sector?
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Finance

Question questioncategory question Answer
Is your government currently accessing international funds to support climate change and health work? YES
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Funding Challenges

Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds

Question questioncategory question Answer
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of information on the opportunities YES
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of country eligibility YES
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of connection by health actors to climate change processes
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of capacity to prepare country proposals
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Lack of success in submitted applications
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds None (no challenges/challenges were minimal)
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Not applicable
Greatest challenges faced in accessing international climate funds Other (please specify)
Notes:
Table Legend: Yes (√) / No (X) / Unknown/Not applicable (N/A)

Opportunities for Action

Develop a Climate Change and Health Strategic Action Plan for Trinidad and Tobago

A climate change and health strategic action plan would help Trinidad and Tobago reduce its vulnerability to climate change. This action plan should account for health co-benefits and identify health adaptation priorities.

Promote Evidence-based Decision-making

A national assessment of climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation for health has been conducted. Ensure that results of the assessment are used for policy prioritization and the allocation of human and financial resources in the health sector.

Address Barriers to Accessing International Climate Change Finance to Support Health Adaptation

The main barriers have been identified as the scarcity of information on related opportunities and a lack of country eligibility.

Build Climate-resilient Health Care Facilities

Measures can be taken to prevent the potentially devastating impacts of climate change on health service provision, including: conducting hazard assessments; climate-informed planning and costing; strengthening structural safety; contingency planning for essential systems (e.g. electricity, heating, cooling, ventilation, water supply, sanitation services, waste management and communications). A commitment towards low-emission, sustainable practices to improve system stability, promote a healing environment and to mitigate climate change impacts can also be taken.

Improve Efficiency and Performance Through Capacity-Building

To have effective management of the scope of climate change impacts, it is necessary to have capacity-building and the expansion of both infrastructural and human resources. This can be achieved though the implementation of ‘smart’a hospitals, which channel efficiency by having improved emergency care particularly in cases of natural disasters. Provision of staff training specific to the management of climate change hazards can further supplement the success of treatment outcomes at these facilities.

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